Flood Review

[brentville]

Interesting fact. At this time last year they were still concerned about a lack of water.

You've kindly provided the sno-pack but resolution is not too good....is there a better source?
Would you also have or know where to obtain annual lake elevation fluctuation data?

I visually take note of the lake elevation mid-April and last year I'd never seen the water that high in almost 40 years.
This year I've never seen the elevation this low...someone a bit gun-shy?

Glacier, did you get a chance to think about what I posted on downstream users pumping what they would need if the gates were left open? The cost would be much less than 2017 flood damages....is it still a bad idea? I also discovered there's a huge 4 meter drop from Okanagan to Skaha so a gravity pipeline would also do the trick at less cost. I know a few things like this as I alternate designed, tendered and constructed the largest outfall in Western Canada.

I'd read this years ago but GordonH was kind enough to post a link to OBWB water management history....so I read it again. Here is an excerpt where Kelowna, Penticton and others all wanting the max level reduced 3 years after the dam was operational:
"" In 1918, the City of Kelowna, the Municipality of Penticton and other communities around the lake protested that lakecontrol should not be solely for navigation purposes and that steps should be taken to lower the maximum lake levels to reduce the flooding of low lands in high runoff years."

[brentville]

People with lake front homes have enough money to deal with any problems.

My Wife and I are Seniors and our entire retirement package is the waterfront property we've lived on for almost 40 years.
Last year the flood wiped out about $75k worth and the Province, who knew the lake level manipulation and weather risks, flooded me out to save some F g FISH! *bleep* happens but the Provincial balancing act of upstream flooding v. free water for downstream users is the Marx Bros. on crack! READ what the co-author of the inflow prediction program used said...



"10-day forecasts are often barely useable and certainly are not reliable" yet they're still using this forecast data and program to set lake levels now!!!!!!

You and everyone else assumes waterfront Owners all "have enough money"...try $75k worth of repairs on 2 pensions.
We are NOT less deserving than YOU and one way or another the Province will pay!

[theobry]

Last years extreme lake flood likely cost the valley tens of millions with the drop in tourist revenue, flood control as well as damage. That is in addition to stress and work home owners suffered.

I hear that they were taken by surprise. The 65 recommendations of the report boils down to mismanagement. It cannot be allowed to happen again.

I also hear there really is no fish issue. However, if we are to manage the lake, then flexibility must be built to allow full control. That is, spawning beds and fish lagoons should be built along the shore that would permit lowering of the lake. It may be a good thing to do anyway.

[Glacier]

Not overly high flow rates last year. High, but not even close to a 10 year record let alone a 200 year record. For example, Fraser river...

[brentville]

Not overly high flow rates last year. High, but not even close to a 10 year record let alone a 200 year record. For example, Fraser river...

I'm still patiently awaiting your reply regarding your problem(s) with flood gate removal.

I found the water office site for lake levels taken in Kelowna & pulled the data for 2017 and 2018 up to today, 12APR2018. Here are the graphs created: https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca Home > Environment and natural resources > Water level and flow > Real-Time Data Hydrometric > Data Search





Note the lake elevation last year was approximately 500 mm higher. Pre-April elevations were continually rising last year and this year are continually falling. In 2017 the flood gates were deliberately set higher and additional water stored because the, known to be garbage forecast data, predicted a drought. This year they are still dumping water rapidly.
Minimum lake elevation has been a controversy for over 100 years. Accurate inflow predictions require predetermined sno-packs, temperature and rainfall data. The Province knows these factors are a crap shoot yet put upstream properties at risk of flooding anyway. These are not the actions of any reasonable person aware of less risky options. A "lack of duty of care" has consequences and according to the Water Sustainability Act the Province is unquestionably liable.

Since the inception of Okanagan Lake being used as water storage for downstream needs, the required volume has increased some ten-fold and every year more water is needed. Logically a time will come where, if this method continues, annual upstream flooding is guaranteed.

Change is needed and the time for this change is NOW!

[Glacier]

[ Pre-April elevations were continually rising last year and this year are continually falling. In 2017 the flood gates were deliberately set higher and additional water stored because the, known to be garbage forecast data, predicted a drought. This year they are still dumping water rapidly.

Last year you had all the climate alarmists, governments, and the media all jumping up and down about how climate change is causing more drought, yadda, yadda, so regulators erred on the side of a possible drought. This year they're gun shy, so they are letting out water as fast as they can.

[brentville]

Last year you had all the climate alarmists, governments, and the media all jumping up and down about how climate change is causing more drought, yadda, yadda, so regulators erred on the side of a possible drought. This year they're gun shy, so they are letting out water as fast as they can.

I couldn't have stated it better...kudos!

The Okanagan Basin Water board presented a workshop on "Proposed Drought Trigger Guidelines for the Okanagan Mainstem Lakes and River" on November 16, 2016
http://www.obwb.ca/workshops/drought-triggers-workshop-2016/
....and you guessed it, a few months later a drought was predicted, they acted accordingly and flooded everyone out!

"Proposed Drought Trigger Guidelines: The OBWB commissioned a technical team to come up with
proposed guidelines for drought triggers on the mainstem system.(1) The proposed guidelines are
based on lake levels, and consider Okanagan Lake dam operations. The guidelines fill an
immediate gap. The triggers can be readily incorporated into drought plans so that mainstem
purveyors will have a consistent, rational process for drought response – similar to the water use
plans and reservoir management plans in place for purveyors with reservoir storage. Ideally, using
these guidelines, water managers with mainstem intakes would move through water restriction
stages in a coordinated way."

(1) 1 The technical team was led by Brian Symonds, former Director of Water Stewardship with the Ministry of Forests,
Lands, and Natural Resource Operations, and included Kari Alex and Dawn Machin from the Okanagan Nation Alli- ance Fisheries Department, Dr. Brian Guy and Drew Lejbak of Associated Environmental Consultants, and Bob Hrasko
of Agua Consulting.

Brian Guy wrote the bogus 2017 Flood Response Report for the Ministry of Forests.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/integrated-flood-hazard-mgmt/2017_flood_response_report_final.pdf
It goes on and on with pages and pages of, what I consider useless data, unusual weather conditions, examines the inflow models (doesn't take into account the data being used is garbage) makes numerous recommendations and in the end vindicates Staff as following current procedures. Conspicuously it fails to examine 10-day forecasts that Hyatt said were garbage or alternate procedures that might reduce flood risk. The Ministry deliberately request this report examine Staff actions only within current procedures.

Guy and I emailed back and forth several times and eventually I presented him with Hyatt's email and challenged him on the inherent flood risks using current procedures. He refused to even comment Hyatt's email or alternate procedures. I guess so, seeing how his involvement with the Drought Trigger Guidelines likely makes him in part responsible for the 2017 flooding!

By all means email and ask him yourself: [email protected]

[steve mc]

if you don,t measure it you can,t manage it, the method of data collection is so outdate when Iwent to the review and ask what system they used,got no reply,ask if they had heard of scada system/ didn,t know what I was talking about, it time to review the management of our resourses

[andrea-lake]

With more transparency about key decision making by lake authorities, the public could better plan for possible flooding. Below is a sample of the output from the forecasting model that predicts the pattern of the lake. It would be very useful to see the prediction of lake levels through the rest of April, May, June and early July. Of course, models are only as useful as the quality of inputs they use, so we need to know what the assumptions are, i.e., how much more snowpack buildup, how much more rain and the planned outflow at the Penticton Dam during April, May and June. This is why the public needs to see the official forecasts with the rationale behind them. This year in particular, the model should include a contingency for unexpected rain and high temperatures that would exacerbate the effects of the near-record snowpack.

[dominik]

if you don,t measure it you can,t manage it, the method of data collection is so outdate when Iwent to the review and ask what system they used,got no reply,ask if they had heard of scada system/ didn,t know what I was talking about, it time to review the management of our resourses

That is actually incorrect, the districts have been using Siemens SCADA systems for over 15 years. I know this as I have worked on them. Almost all irrigation districts have these types of systems installed, on top of that we have multiple water level sensors implemented from the bridge up and down the lake.

Sorry but you don't need to make a situation seem more "dramatic" just because one staff member you may have discussed the TECH term of Scada System with. Considering most staff refers to the software by basic terminology or by the manufacturers name could easily explain that.

We wouldn't have all the digital data (which everyone is posting here) if we did not have SCADA systems in place. Lets stick to facts shall we?

[brentville]

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) is a great tool....it's usually the people acting upon the data where it goes horribly wrong. The Ministry of Forests relies heavily upon Environment Canada (EC) forecasts as SCADA merely relays sensor output.

I program in several languages and incorrect or poor quality input will always produce faulty output. "Garbage in, garbage out". The Ministry knew EC data for even 10 day forecasts was suspect but as it's the only such tool available, relied upon it anyway. Extrapolation of obviously flawed EC data via the inflow program predicted a drought last year. The Ministry took this output as gospel and accordingly allowed the lake level to rise some 480 mm above normal. They also limited outflows (raised the flood gates) till it was too late to correct. Fact: One CANNOT reliably predict the weather!

[JoeS]

No need to worry about launching boats this summer. As shown in previous graphs, the lake will fill up very quickly even from the lower level recommended by the 1974 rules. (Rules that were reconfirmed in 1998 based on over 80 years’ experience). BUT, if the lake is not drawn down as required, we will get the same problem as last year when it overfilled and ended up not being of much use to anyone. Then, all the boat launches were closed, and many docks were blown out by the high water. (See 2017 headlines below). This year, with over 150% snowpack and the uncertainty about rain and temperatures still to come, we need to take extra precautions to avoid a flood. Low lake levels are not a problem when we have this huge snowpack just waiting to come down and quickly fill the lake, after which the officials can take their time slowly lowering it as needed.

*removed*

but even that may not, as its been pointed out the data collection is once a month at best - from what i recall reading, and forecasts are not accurate enough to have a good idea of what to expect. if they where last year would not have been such a mess.

i recall the head lines. i am one of the avid lake uses that got screwed

as for that lake level chart you posted only shows data for every three months give or take. 3 months is about all the dead hot heat we get here. so it can be at dangerously low level from June to August - prime summer and vacation months - but its ok because as it gets colder the lake level will be back up? yah ok.

Andrea-lake how do you get this data?

[steve mc]

have used scada for25+years lake level creek flows,fish flows,and everything else in water industry, check calibration to ensure data,the fellow I ask told me he was mr riemers boss

[brentville]

have used scada for25+years lake level creek flows,fish flows,and everything else in water industry, check calibration to ensure data,the fellow I ask told me he was mr riemers boss

I merely take issue with how data is relied upon. It's doubtful "mr riemers boss" knows what data is collected or how it is used/weighted. The Ministry relies heavily upon Environment Canada (EC) forecast data and it, along with other data including SCADA, gets entered into their inflow prediction program. Data entry usually starts in about November to predict where the lake levels should be set in March/April...months in advance.

A co-author of the inflow prediction program stated to me, in regards to EC forecasts, "10-day forecasts are often barely useable and certainly are NOT reliable." The program has not changed and neither has EC data collection methods. yet Ministry continues to uses EC data to predict lake levels 4 or 5 months in advance? Personally I'd rather see the lot of these so-called experts fired and clones of the Marx Bros, on crack, looking after Okanagan Lake levels!

I can present "mr riemers boss" with rock solid proof of negligence by Ministry Staff. Do you truly think he'd give a rats azz or only be concerned with protecting his pension like Reimer?

[andrea-lake]

JoeS asked where the lake level reports come from. See link below to find the historical data for a number of previous years, which you can easily sort through.

https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/his ... tn=08NM083

As an example, you can see from the 2016 chart below that on April 1st the level was drawn down to 1.5 meters on the left axis and by May 1st it was already back up close to 2.2 meters.