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Driverless legislation pushed

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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Sparki55 » Feb 14th, 2018, 2:41 pm

gman313 wrote:
oldtrucker wrote:I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.
Yes one day perhaps a computer will be able to "feel" where the gravel is under a snow layer to get traction before spinout, feel how to feather a throttle, anticipate a fraction of a percent change in the slope grade. As I said before ,a computer cannot know when and be able to put chains on.( I hate chaining up) It wont know when a strap is loose and about to be pulled under a axle. A gizzilion things that can/will happen that a computer can't deal with or do.
A computer can analyze a plumbing problem-but the problem will still need a plumber to fix that problem.


you are sadly mistaking if you truly believe that.


Really? Do you know of any robotic plumbers I can call to fix my leaky tub? I'm always looking for a good deal. Let's see the think come up my front stairs, get directions from me on where the leak is, buy the appropriate parts, come back and fix it with the dexterity of a plumber.

Get real, Boston Dynamics recently released footage of a robot opening a door. There is a long way to go before it is reliable and once it is reliable it won't be cheaper than a human opening a door for a long time.

Computers are best at taking input and doing a number of calculations to give the human user an answer which the human can use to input more data. It takes much more for a robot to take in environmental data make a decision and then take in more environmental data before the next decision. A robot is also very poor to adapt to changing situations and needs to be specifically designed for the task which it is intended for.

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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby CapitalB » Feb 14th, 2018, 2:45 pm

oldtrucker wrote:I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.
Yes one day perhaps a computer will be able to "feel" where the gravel is under a snow layer to get traction before spinout Thats an active traction control system and they're in an ever increasing amount of vehicles
, feel how to feather a throttle Sensors can detect and react to slippage, traction loss, whatever in like a millionth of a second, anticipate a fraction of a percent change in the slope grade they won't really anticipate but they'll measure it to the millimeter and figure out the exact angle of its slope so pretty much yeah.. As I said before ,a computer cannot know when they absolutely should be able to figure out what bad road conditions will look like and be able to put chains on this would in fact require a person. That being said in all likelyness when we do start going mostly driverless there will be little inspection stations along highways where they'll tighten straps put on chains go through the checklist etc.( I hate chaining up) It wont know Why not?
All that would take is a camera pointed down the back of the truck.
when a strap is loose and about to be pulled under a axle. A gizzilion things that can/will happen that a computer can't deal with or do. Most of the things that could or would happen are usually caused by people being involved in the process. When these things start rolling around full time there will likely be a few problems here or there but I really don't think any of them are going to be more than a bump in the road.
A computer can analyze a plumbing problem-but the problem will still need a plumber to fix that problem. Thats just not a great analogy, also I can think up a number of ways we could automate plumbing with available tech.



*Automate plumbing bonus round!*

- Tiny robots that go right down the pipe and cut out clogs. Inspired by these nanobots that are being tested against cancer. I figure if we can make em tiny we can make some bigger ones to cut up pip clogs.
- For fresh installs: A machine that 3d prints pipes right into the structure of a building.
- A machine that can travel along a length of pipe and physically remove and replace a damaged section Inspired by the machines we use to fix undersea communication cables. I can see there being a problem with getting the machines into some locations.
- Design plumbing systems to be more modular and accessible for repair. This would reduce the complexity involved in repairing a lot of things.

Definitely going to take longer to automate plumbing than it'll take to automate most other construction careers which already have automation tech entering the market as competition.


Edit to combine multiple posts------->

Sparki55 wrote:Computers are best at taking input and doing a number of calculations to give the human user an answer which the human can use to input more data. It takes much more for a robot to take in environmental data make a decision and then take in more environmental data before the next decision. A robot is also very poor to adapt to changing situations and needs to be specifically designed for the task which it is intended for.


While this used to be true ai like alphago is proving it to be false, ai is quickly coming to grasps with a rudimentary intuition of sorts.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby oldtrucker » Feb 14th, 2018, 2:59 pm

I have laid out my challenge.
Don't know if you have ovaries or whatever...strap em' on the outside and lets get to it scooter.
Can your computer beat me? or not. Black or white,or in your computer lingo- a one or a zero. Yes or no.
Let's really sweeting things up...lets put money on that challenge.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby CapitalB » Feb 14th, 2018, 3:05 pm

oldtrucker wrote:I have laid out my challenge.
Don't know if you have ovaries or whatever...strap em' on the outside and lets get to it scooter.
Can your computer beat me? or not. Black or white,or in your computer lingo- a one or a zero. Yes or no.
Let's really sweeting things up...lets put money on that challenge.


I just did finished your challenge, look back a couple posts.:)
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Jonrox » Feb 14th, 2018, 4:06 pm

It's kind of tough for any of us to take you up on your challenge since none of us are Elon Musk. But I have a feeling you're going to tap out well before you reach hour 24 of driving continuously and the autonomous truck keeps on going. You're going to need to eat, to take a bathroom break, and to sleep. The autonomous truck doesn't need to stop to do any of those things.

This thread is really bringing to light how naive people are about technology. Very very few of us have jobs that aren't in danger of someday being replaced. And truck drivers are going to see this happen sooner than a lot of the rest of us will. If my job still exists in it's current form 10 years from now, I'll be shocked. But that doesn't take away from the skill I have - it just means that advances in AI will be able to make decisions faster and better than I can.

But just because their job can be done by autonomous rigs, it doesn't take away from the skill needed or the dangers they face. It's going to take highly sophisticated technology to do it - it's not meant to be derogatory to drivers in that their job is easy. A computer being able to take over a job doesn't mean it's an easy job - it only means that companies have developed the advanced technology capable of doing it.

If you want to watch a really cool documentary about the advancements being made in AI, watch AlphaGo - it's on Netflix. That a computer was able to beat the world's best Go player is amazing (Go is many times more complicated than chess) - it takes nothing away from his accomplishments, but it shows how fast the advancements have been made.

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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby oldtrucker » Feb 14th, 2018, 7:10 pm

Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby CapitalB » Feb 14th, 2018, 8:01 pm

oldtrucker wrote:Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?


The tesla trucks can already technically make the coquihalla trip. Their distance supports going from kelowna to merrit charging there and going to hope charging there and continuing on. Thats with currently available battery technology, which gets significantly better each year.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Dizzy1 » Feb 14th, 2018, 8:24 pm

CapitalB wrote:
The tesla trucks can already technically make the coquihalla trip. Their distance supports going from kelowna to merrit charging there and going to hope charging there and continuing on. Thats with currently available battery technology, which gets significantly better each year.

Terrain and temperatures are all factors in a vehicles range - whether they run on fuel or batteries. 33km of nonstop uphill is a lot different then 33km flat.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Sparki55 » Feb 14th, 2018, 8:33 pm

oldtrucker wrote:Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?


It's ok old trucker, they didn't even bother to respond to my post as they know it's impossible to do what I asked. Just give it some more time and this fear of robots may pass.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby CapitalB » Feb 14th, 2018, 8:47 pm

Sparki55 wrote:
oldtrucker wrote:Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?


It's ok old trucker, they didn't even bother to respond to my post as they know it's impossible to do what I asked. Just give it some more time and this fear of robots may pass.


I responded to you too. Theres a big post up there you should read ;]
Also its not a fear of robots. I think most of us would consider ourselves robot enthusiasts to some degree. I'm excited for the future. What I am afraid of is our society not being prepared for the jobless revolution. Not that all jobs will disappear, more that most of the entry level, menial, repetitive, and labour intensive jobs in our society are being automated on a number of different fronts. While a whole host of more white collar jobs are being automated on the ai side of things.

I don't think this is a bad trend either. Why should people be doing jobs that don't fulfill their potential as people if our society doesn't need them to. There are however a lot of people who seem to casually think that just all jobs pretty much are so special that they cant be automated. Which is just silly.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Verum » Feb 14th, 2018, 9:07 pm

Sparki55 wrote:...
Computers are best at taking input and doing a number of calculations to give the human user an answer which the human can use to input more data. It takes much more for a robot to take in environmental data make a decision and then take in more environmental data before the next decision. A robot is also very poor to adapt to changing situations and needs to be specifically designed for the task which it is intended for.

Plenty of robots work using a loop which roughly looks goes like: take in environmental input, process it, act upon it, return to start.
Control theory, a fairly useful way of dealing with this stuff, dates back to the 1800s. Robots built on these principles are basically the run of the mill industrial robots, and they do a much better job where appropriate than any human can (they are faster, stronger, more accurate, more consistent, work longer hours, don't have personal issues, etc.).

Machine learning allows us to use huge quantities of data to "train" machines to do tasks. Basically, we can use many lifetime's worth of data to train a specific type of algorithm to do a task. Additionally, unlike with humans, these algorithms are such that the more data we feed them, the more effective they get. The beauty of these algorithms is that after it has been trained, the trained algorithm can be implemented in such a manner as to be extremely fast at its trained task. This has already proven to be very effective at certain repetitive tasks and with the addition of expert systems, it has proven to be excellent at making decisions. Often far better than highly trained people.

I am not saying that we can do it today. I'm not saying that there are no challenges. I'm not claiming to have answers to the problems. All I will say is that in the coming years, this technology will start to become mainstream and we will have a huge shift towards automation of jobs. The act of driving and operating a vehicle, including a truck, isn't trivial, but none of the challenges seem insurmountable, and the incentive to automate driving and other forms of transport, ultimately in the order of trillions of dollars, is definitely worth it.

Sparki55 wrote:...
It's ok old trucker, they didn't even bother to respond to my post as they know it's impossible to do what I asked. Just give it some more time and this fear of robots may pass.

We may not yet have the technology to build a robot to fix your tub, but that's actually a different kind of task and also one with far less reward to be reaped. Basically, there is far less money to be saved by replacing all plumbers.

Personally, I welcome a more automated future and the tremendous opportunities it will bring, but then again, I'm a nerd and technology has always favoured people like me.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Jlabute » Feb 15th, 2018, 8:39 am

CapitalB wrote:Just coming from the position of someone who stays up to date on technology and other innovations and am mostly going off what the experts developing new tech in each industry are saying. Or rather I'm going off what they're testing now, what their expected time frames for release are and adding a few years. I just have a class 5 license though my step father is a heavy duty mechanic for brand new trucks and we talk about this tech quite a bit. He thinks anything beyond 2025 for time predictions is too slow just based off whats come out in the past couple of years. (As a side note one of my favourite video games is a truck driving simulator that I play with a force feedback wheel and pedal setup. I really enjoy doing long haul deliveries through europe.)

Also this is a progressive technology, we aren't necessarily waiting for level 5 autonomous for things to take off. Level 3 and 4 vehicles, both of which are real world testing right now, will effect a great number of industries that involve driving in some ways. Even level 2 tech like the convoy systems, and gradual increases in automation from there will only make the jobs easier eventually transitioning to systems that need fewer people.

There are also a lot of other technologies related to automation (drone deliveries, 3d printing/manufacturing/ faster longer rail systems, etc) that are also going to be effecting transportation of goods.


There are so many different ways to look at this issue, and well, this is a 'driver-less' thread which implies either LEVEL 4 or LEVEL 5, and LEVEL 4 is limited scenario driver-less and still has a steering wheel. Since people in this thread seem to focus on the accident reduction of your average Joe, that too seems to imply posters are expecting LEVEL 5 autonomous vehicles to be everywhere very soon and for more than just commercial applications. So, not beyond 2025 for what? Will you be specific? What year do you think you will be able to visit a local car dealership and pick up a LEVEL 5 steering-wheel-less vehicle? People don't want to be restricted for where they can drive, and do more than just drive in the city making trips to Walmart and back. They won't be common place until they are no longer experimental and available for sale in your local dealerships. At this point, you could consider it to be faultless technology.


Uber is hoping to bring driver-less cars to their business. Uber and the media swing the pitch that 'finally' driver-less cars are available to the masses with our new driver-less Uber fleet and we did it first. (each car suited with two company employees)
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-uber-pittsburgh-20160914-snap-story.html

Shortly after the introduction, the story went more like, holy ding dongs batman, there's like a billion things that are screwed and if an engineer didn't take the wheel we'd all be dead.
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-driverless-car-problems-2016-9#a-big-problem-for-self-driving-cars-is-simply-having-to-deal-with-other-human-drivers-on-the-road-1

So, testing is good. There is still a lot of development left before you can put your coins in a vending machine and buy one for yourself.

Staying abreast of tech is good, but understanding it is better. Back in 2016 when an Italian company hailed the production of the Grabat graphene battery, and had nice CGI images of it and test documentation and said they would begin deliveries... who woulda guessed it would have just been all hot air. Perhaps the company themselves didn't realize the technical difficulties behind making a graphene battery and jumped the gun. This kinda stuff happens a lot.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby CapitalB » Feb 15th, 2018, 9:51 am

Why on earth would I want to buy one? My vehicle sits idle most of the time, what I'm expecting is a more general public transit service made up of driverless vehicles. Vehicle ownership has been dropping among younger people for quite a while now and that trend is likely to continues. I personally will still own a normal vehicle for pleasure driving but for 95% of my transportation purposes I can probably leave my own vehicle parked. Even if I was rich enough to buy a new care I really don't think theres any financial justification for wasting such a huge amount of money on an object that depreciates so quickly and that has less and less purpose in the world we're making.

You are incorrect about level 4 level 3 is the one with a wheel and humans as backup. Level 4 is completely driverless but only functional in specific areas, level 5 would just be general purpose. There are level 4 vehicles in cities, canadian cities even right now. They go pretty slow and only on a set track but its a start.

Uber is probably the back of the driverless pack. Check out Waymo and GM's cars. These ones still have a backup driver taking the wheel every 9000 kilometers or so but its basically just a matter of letting the AI practice driving until its perfect. Also I think having a person not need to touch the wheel for almost two entire oil changes is looking pretty damn good.

Also since you really seemed to want a hard number I think people will be able to buy the first true fully autonomous cars for themselves by 2022. Although I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there was a big breakthrough of some kind that speeds things up. AI research has been destroying prediction lately, hitting milestones that were expected to take another twenty years (Ai beating world GO master was not expected until the 2030's) and has been advancing exponentially since then.

Last point I swear. Your link about people being the biggest problem faced by driverless cars is because at this point nearly all the accidents driverless cars have been in have been caused by other drivers. Thaaaaats not a point against driverless cars thats a point against stupid monkeys driving big machines.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby dirtybiker » Feb 17th, 2018, 10:31 pm

I can see it now, a bunch of empty cars circling the block because a slew of
must have it now movers and shakers need their ride "now" at the ready,
not parked 10 blocks away in some parkade.
Huge Transport companies computer dispatching empty driverless rigs to go
get loads at a loss.
The computer already figured that a little loss there is made up by the gains of much of the rest of the fleet.
(this already happens, just a driver and wages apply.)

Congestion will be just as bad or worse with empty vehicles driving themselves around after every whim and
whimsy of the humanoids ordering them. There's an app for that !

Vehicles making the "decision" to mow down the unwary kid chasing a ball to not risk it's passengers.
or;
People not buying in because the vehicle is programed to sacrifice itself and passenger to save the unwary.
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Re: Driverless legislation pushed

Postby Jflem1983 » Feb 18th, 2018, 6:14 am

dirtybiker wrote:I can see it now, a bunch of empty cars circling the block because a slew of
must have it now movers and shakers need their ride "now" at the ready,
not parked 10 blocks away in some parkade.
Huge Transport companies computer dispatching empty driverless rigs to go
get loads at a loss.
The computer already figured that a little loss there is made up by the gains of much of the rest of the fleet.
(this already happens, just a driver and wages apply.)

Congestion will be just as bad or worse with empty vehicles driving themselves around after every whim and
whimsy of the humanoids ordering them. There's an app for that !

Vehicles making the "decision" to mow down the unwary kid chasing a ball to not risk it's passengers.
or;
People not buying in because the vehicle is programed to sacrifice itself and passenger to save the unwary.



Personally i dont want GM tracking my vehicle. I dont think its needed.
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