Driverless legislation pushed

[CapitalB]

Also; Last week I watch a rocket autonomously fire up into space, and then land most of itself simultaneously back onto the launch pad. Yet so many people here constantly hur dur about driving being too hard for a computer. Rocket science, NBD driving a *bleep* car or truck? Naa thats too hard.

Give me a break.

[Jonrox]

It's perfectly natural for people to believe their job could never be taken over by technology. People also vastly underestimate what technology is capable of.

[CapitalB]

Just coming from the position of someone who stays up to date on technology and other innovations and am mostly going off what the experts developing new tech in each industry are saying. Or rather I'm going off what they're testing now, what their expected time frames for release are and adding a few years. I just have a class 5 license though my step father is a heavy duty mechanic for brand new trucks and we talk about this tech quite a bit. He thinks anything beyond 2025 for time predictions is too slow just based off whats come out in the past couple of years. (As a side note one of my favourite video games is a truck driving simulator that I play with a force feedback wheel and pedal setup. I really enjoy doing long haul deliveries through europe.)

Also this is a progressive technology, we aren't necessarily waiting for level 5 autonomous for things to take off. Level 3 and 4 vehicles, both of which are real world testing right now, will effect a great number of industries that involve driving in some ways. Even level 2 tech like the convoy systems, and gradual increases in automation from there will only make the jobs easier eventually transitioning to systems that need fewer people.

There are also a lot of other technologies related to automation (drone deliveries, 3d printing/manufacturing/ faster longer rail systems, etc) that are also going to be effecting transportation of goods.

[Jonrox]

I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.
Yes one day perhaps a computer will be able to "feel" where the gravel is under a snow layer to get traction before spinout, feel how to feather a throttle, anticipate a fraction of a percent change in the slope grade. As I said before ,a computer cannot know when and be able to put chains on.( I hate chaining up) It wont know when a strap is loose and about to be pulled under a axle. A gizzilion things that can/will happen that a computer can't deal with or do.
A computer can analyze a plumbing problem-but the problem will still need a plumber to fix that problem.

A computer can already do those things. A computer can know all of those things and can know them better than a human can. Oldtrucker, I respect your experience in the industry but it seems you're vastly underestimating what the technology is already capable of.

[Verum]

K...Lets try this. Anyone who thinks that we will see driverless technology anytime soon-try this:
Go get into a truck with a load of 100,000lbs,500 hp plus,1800 ft lbs plus torque, 18spd, 22 wheels plus, on the Coq.,Hwy 1 or wherever in snow,rain,fog/ ice. Heck- even nice conditions.
Get back to us when you do that. Your opinion will be 'oldtrucker',"you are crazy for doing this job" , and " no room for computers here".

If I did have the reaction "you are crazy for doing this job", I would certainly not have the response "no room for computers here". If anything, I would want greater driver aids to make your job safer, to the point where the need for human involvement reduced to minimal and eventually made obsolete. Any repetitive task is ripe for automation and it is hard for those who are not familiar with the state of the art in machine learning to grasp how far along things have come. Computers already do many tasks we used to think were almost impossible to automate. Transportation is a trillion dollar industry World wide and a very large source of cost is human labour costs. It only makes sense that the industry is trying to cut those costs. Imagine trucks being able to drive for almost all 24 hours, being much cheaper per hour as no expensive drivers, fewer accidents, etc. It will take longer to happen in the most challenging areas, but it will happen and it will make good cheaper for all. This is how capitalism works.

Here's a link to a cartoon (from a nerd's nerd) from 4 years ago, hover over the image and read the text:
https://xkcd.com/1425/
So, a task set 50+ years ago, which 4 years ago looked almost impossible is actually fairly doable these days. Google already has an API (interface for programs/apps to use to perform some actions) for this and it can do a lot more than that cartoon was asking:
https://cloud.google.com/vision/

[CapitalB]

I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.

Thats why I said landed most of itself*

Though I do feel obliged to point out that before the automated landing system 100% percent of all rocket pieces crashed. Now spacex has dropped that number to something like 1/5 of rockets crash and they're still being dragged down by all their testing crashes.

[gman313]

I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.
Yes one day perhaps a computer will be able to "feel" where the gravel is under a snow layer to get traction before spinout, feel how to feather a throttle, anticipate a fraction of a percent change in the slope grade. As I said before ,a computer cannot know when and be able to put chains on.( I hate chaining up) It wont know when a strap is loose and about to be pulled under a axle. A gizzilion things that can/will happen that a computer can't deal with or do.
A computer can analyze a plumbing problem-but the problem will still need a plumber to fix that problem.

you are sadly mistaking if you truly believe that.

[Sparki55]

I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.
Yes one day perhaps a computer will be able to "feel" where the gravel is under a snow layer to get traction before spinout, feel how to feather a throttle, anticipate a fraction of a percent change in the slope grade. As I said before ,a computer cannot know when and be able to put chains on.( I hate chaining up) It wont know when a strap is loose and about to be pulled under a axle. A gizzilion things that can/will happen that a computer can't deal with or do.
A computer can analyze a plumbing problem-but the problem will still need a plumber to fix that problem.

you are sadly mistaking if you truly believe that.

Really? Do you know of any robotic plumbers I can call to fix my leaky tub? I'm always looking for a good deal. Let's see the think come up my front stairs, get directions from me on where the leak is, buy the appropriate parts, come back and fix it with the dexterity of a plumber.

Get real, Boston Dynamics recently released footage of a robot opening a door. There is a long way to go before it is reliable and once it is reliable it won't be cheaper than a human opening a door for a long time.

Computers are best at taking input and doing a number of calculations to give the human user an answer which the human can use to input more data. It takes much more for a robot to take in environmental data make a decision and then take in more environmental data before the next decision. A robot is also very poor to adapt to changing situations and needs to be specifically designed for the task which it is intended for.

[CapitalB]

I just remembered 'Capital B'...the rockets you mentioned-1 crashed.
Yes one day perhaps a computer will be able to "feel" where the gravel is under a snow layer to get traction before spinout Thats an active traction control system and they're in an ever increasing amount of vehicles
, feel how to feather a throttle Sensors can detect and react to slippage, traction loss, whatever in like a millionth of a second, anticipate a fraction of a percent change in the slope grade they won't really anticipate but they'll measure it to the millimeter and figure out the exact angle of its slope so pretty much yeah.. As I said before ,a computer cannot know when they absolutely should be able to figure out what bad road conditions will look like and be able to put chains on this would in fact require a person. That being said in all likelyness when we do start going mostly driverless there will be little inspection stations along highways where they'll tighten straps put on chains go through the checklist etc.( I hate chaining up) It wont know Why not?
All that would take is a camera pointed down the back of the truck. when a strap is loose and about to be pulled under a axle. A gizzilion things that can/will happen that a computer can't deal with or do. Most of the things that could or would happen are usually caused by people being involved in the process. When these things start rolling around full time there will likely be a few problems here or there but I really don't think any of them are going to be more than a bump in the road.
A computer can analyze a plumbing problem-but the problem will still need a plumber to fix that problem. Thats just not a great analogy, also I can think up a number of ways we could automate plumbing with available tech.

*Automate plumbing bonus round!*

- Tiny robots that go right down the pipe and cut out clogs. Inspired by these nanobots that are being tested against cancer. I figure if we can make em tiny we can make some bigger ones to cut up pip clogs.
- For fresh installs: A machine that 3d prints pipes right into the structure of a building.
- A machine that can travel along a length of pipe and physically remove and replace a damaged section Inspired by the machines we use to fix undersea communication cables. I can see there being a problem with getting the machines into some locations.
- Design plumbing systems to be more modular and accessible for repair. This would reduce the complexity involved in repairing a lot of things.

Definitely going to take longer to automate plumbing than it'll take to automate most other construction careers which already have automation tech entering the market as competition.


Edit to combine multiple posts------->

Computers are best at taking input and doing a number of calculations to give the human user an answer which the human can use to input more data. It takes much more for a robot to take in environmental data make a decision and then take in more environmental data before the next decision. A robot is also very poor to adapt to changing situations and needs to be specifically designed for the task which it is intended for.

While this used to be true ai like alphago is proving it to be false, ai is quickly coming to grasps with a rudimentary intuition of sorts.

[CapitalB]

I have laid out my challenge.
Don't know if you have ovaries or whatever...strap em' on the outside and lets get to it scooter.
Can your computer beat me? or not. Black or white,or in your computer lingo- a one or a zero. Yes or no.
Let's really sweeting things up...lets put money on that challenge.

I just did finished your challenge, look back a couple posts.:)

[Jonrox]

It's kind of tough for any of us to take you up on your challenge since none of us are Elon Musk. But I have a feeling you're going to tap out well before you reach hour 24 of driving continuously and the autonomous truck keeps on going. You're going to need to eat, to take a bathroom break, and to sleep. The autonomous truck doesn't need to stop to do any of those things.

This thread is really bringing to light how naive people are about technology. Very very few of us have jobs that aren't in danger of someday being replaced. And truck drivers are going to see this happen sooner than a lot of the rest of us will. If my job still exists in it's current form 10 years from now, I'll be shocked. But that doesn't take away from the skill I have - it just means that advances in AI will be able to make decisions faster and better than I can.

But just because their job can be done by autonomous rigs, it doesn't take away from the skill needed or the dangers they face. It's going to take highly sophisticated technology to do it - it's not meant to be derogatory to drivers in that their job is easy. A computer being able to take over a job doesn't mean it's an easy job - it only means that companies have developed the advanced technology capable of doing it.

If you want to watch a really cool documentary about the advancements being made in AI, watch AlphaGo - it's on Netflix. That a computer was able to beat the world's best Go player is amazing (Go is many times more complicated than chess) - it takes nothing away from his accomplishments, but it shows how fast the advancements have been made.

[CapitalB]

Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?

The tesla trucks can already technically make the coquihalla trip. Their distance supports going from kelowna to merrit charging there and going to hope charging there and continuing on. Thats with currently available battery technology, which gets significantly better each year.

[Dizzy1]

The tesla trucks can already technically make the coquihalla trip. Their distance supports going from kelowna to merrit charging there and going to hope charging there and continuing on. Thats with currently available battery technology, which gets significantly better each year.

Terrain and temperatures are all factors in a vehicles range - whether they run on fuel or batteries. 33km of nonstop uphill is a lot different then 33km flat.

[Sparki55]

Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?

It's ok old trucker, they didn't even bother to respond to my post as they know it's impossible to do what I asked. Just give it some more time and this fear of robots may pass.

[CapitalB]

Ya...I don't think we need Mr.Musk. Assuming the truck is electric it would be out of juice before Merritt. If it was diesel...someone would still have to fill it up. As for me giving up after the first 24 hours, well, I don't have that option now on a regular day at work. But , if I did tap out, should I do it after I have to chain up the driverless ( no one else to do it) truck or just leave it on the hwy?

It's ok old trucker, they didn't even bother to respond to my post as they know it's impossible to do what I asked. Just give it some more time and this fear of robots may pass.

I responded to you too. Theres a big post up there you should read ;]
Also its not a fear of robots. I think most of us would consider ourselves robot enthusiasts to some degree. I'm excited for the future. What I am afraid of is our society not being prepared for the jobless revolution. Not that all jobs will disappear, more that most of the entry level, menial, repetitive, and labour intensive jobs in our society are being automated on a number of different fronts. While a whole host of more white collar jobs are being automated on the ai side of things.

I don't think this is a bad trend either. Why should people be doing jobs that don't fulfill their potential as people if our society doesn't need them to. There are however a lot of people who seem to casually think that just all jobs pretty much are so special that they cant be automated. Which is just silly.