Have Kelowna home values dropped 41%?

[amourus]

...

And these are not people who would yell “FIRE!” in a crowded theatre just for sh*ts and giggles. Their cover-page articles typically tend to be very well researched and accurate pieces.

What a load of B.S. ! McLean's is no different than any other MSM in hyping up their headlines to sell more magazines. Note the Playboy bunny cartoon in the top corner of the same cover you promote as the Gospel of Truth. Sex sells and disasters & fear even more so.

I haven't read the article, yet, but it's probably going to say and then, towards the end, note that a huge segment of the Canadian population has massive amounts of equity in their homes and are under no undue pressure to sell. They'll probably also slip in a footnote along the lines of "real estate values are a reflection of the overall economy", ergo; if the economy takes a massive dump then you can expect property values the follow.

[amourus]

The media usually tends to be a shill for the Real Estate industry, so when the big names in the print industry start printing out covers like this:...

Here's what 30 seconds of searching the website of your so called "shill for the Real Estate industry" came up with...

- http://www2.macleans.ca/2008/11/27/coul ... ppen-here/ - November 2008

- "This is a well worn theme for many Canadian reporters. Here at Maclean’s we’ve reached the same conclusion several times going back to 2008, and, admittedly, we’ve been proven fully and completely wrong. " - June 2011

- "Joe Williams is not a popular guy these days with the Canadian Real Estate Association. For three years now, Ottawa’s self-described “most hated” real estate agent has been offering to list people’s homes on the association’s popular Multiple Listing Service for $109. It sounds innocent enough, but that kind of flat-fee service has become a major point of controversy as CREA battles with the Competition Bureau over its control of the MLS site. " Canada's Rogue Realtor" April 2010

- "From the moment Robert Peden chose to sell his Victoria home, he was adamant not one penny would go to a full-service real estate agent. Instead, Peden is doing what a small but growing number of Canadian homeowners have opted to do—handle the sale on his own. “I’m not prepared to pay full-service real estate commissions because they’re totally out of whack,” he says. “No realtor is worth that kind of money.” - Are Real Estate Agents Ripping You Off?" - April 2010

- "Don't believe the housing hype - There are plenty of signs that the Canadian housing market is still on some very shaky ground" - June 2009


Should I go on? I guess maybe they aren't the shill you suggest they are. What other dubious claims do have for us today?

[Rjamer]

Ok ok, have to pipe in on one of these real estate threads. Numbers are numbers and ANYONE who wants can manipulate them to their cause. Have prices gone down, yes. Are they going to go down much more, doubtful. Look at the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where the market has already gone up and construction is everywhere (was just driving around both 2 weeks ago and the amount of building going on was impressive). We do tend to follow that market so that predicts we should start climbing again soon. Also read somewhere that our area had a 3 or 4% increase in real estate numbers last year and predicted to do the same or better this year. If I can find that link again will post it.
But lets be realistic, the nay sayers are doing their numbers based on 2008, at the end of the biggest boom that we have ever seen here. That alone skews the number big time. I would love to see a comparison to times that were much more stable and see how we are doing. And lets not forget the new HST rules that put the rebates up to 825k, that should have a positive affect if the Gov gets around to actually making a news story out of it. Points me at another topic, why is it that the foreclosure numbers that came out recently got so much attention, undeserved in my opinion, and the new HST rules for homes was pretty much a none issue.
I think the only segment of the market that may still see a slight dip would be the 600-800k range that was saturated with homes during the boom.
But really, who knows what is going to happen. What we should all hope for is for the real estate market to start improving at a healthy rate to help bolster the local economy and get things back into a positive state.

I agree Joe,, " Numbers are numbers and ANYONE who wants can manipulate to their cause".. The real estate industry wrote the book on number manipulation,, David Lereah in the US comes to mind.. I am sure it is a good time to buy,though,,just ask any realtor.. .. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/da ... h-jackass/

[GrooveTunes]

" Look at the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where the market has already gone up"

Prices are down a lot on the island and continue to fall. Even our realtor has said to hang on another year or two as it's not going up at all anytime soon.

[grammafreddy]

Look at the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where the market has already gone up and construction is everywhere

And why do you think that is? Any guesses? Like maybe the rise in the economic wealth of people in China and India? These folks are now referred to as "Chindia" in some arenas ... http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/bcb/bc-b ... takes-over

[Scadam]

I'll save you the suspense and do the math for you. It's 15.7 percent (I didn't bother garnishing with inflation). This number is in line with what I've seen on my own appraisals. Better luck next time.

Okay - January 2008 to January 2012 then.



Jan-2008 Average: $483,784.71
Jan-2012 Average: $354,678.00

That's a 27% drop. Apples to Apples, current season.

You forgot to factor inflation into the equation. $483,784 in 2008 dollars is $522,296 in 2012 dollars. So a true, after-inflation comparison of apples to apples would end up showing a 32% drop in value.

Even comparing apples to apples, as you have done 36Drew, a 32% after-inflation drop in values still represents a massive drop. The largest ever previous drop in home prices was 16% in the early 80s, and represents about half of what we have seen to date with our current bubble.

Simply put, the collapse in home values since January of 2008 is, once adjusted for inflation, about twice as large as any previous housing collapse in Kelowna to date.

And I would bet my left butt-cheek that we are still in the early innings of this downturn. Things are about to get a *LOT* worse.

Please don't pretend you're replying to me or my "apples to apples" post when in actuality you are replying to one of your alter egos / friends who has placed another set of un-sourced and questionable numbers in front of us.

Once again, the correct version of what you're trying to base on opinion on, this time for your new date range of Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2012:

Jan. 2008
$483,784.71
http://www.omreb.com/files/01%20-%20Jan ... 0Stats.pdf

Jan. 2012
$415,358
http://www.omreb.com/files/01%20-%20CO% ... 202012.pdf

That makes it 16.5 percent. Nice choice of a date range that makes things look worse, indeed almost a FULL percent worse than looking at the April numbers of 15.7.

Why is this thread even still here? This is the kind of garbage that goes on in the economic forum; nothing but outright lies and fabrications with a generous load of theatrics. The only reason I bothered to be designated reality checker up to this point was that rekabis called me out by name, but I'd really rather not play this game.

[zyzzx]

What idiot follows the advice of Rekabis? Ones that rent I'd wager, but that is about all. And based on how his predictions fare, they will be renting for the rest of their lives, waiting for that big drop that will simply never come. Rene, you sir are not on the ball, or even the planet for that matter.

In 2007 The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $270,000.

My optimistic prediction? Next year, about May to July, we will suddenly wake up and go, “what the heck?” when we suddenly see house sales screech to a sudden halt (like they did in the States this last August). My pessimistic prediction is some time in 2009. But as sure as the sky is blue and water is wet, we *will* see a major housing correction.

The housing bubble is going to pop, and when it does -- watch out. Our bubble has shown many of the same features as some of the worst in the states (housing starts, overcapacity, investor involvement, flipping schemes, etc.), and their housing market has already plunged by over 35% in value. And that plunge is still accelerating. It has yet to stop accelerating and begin to decelerate, much less level off towards recovery.

Yes, we are about two years behind them, but I predict our plunge will be just as severe, clear back to 1998 prices. And that plunge will begin for us within the next 12 to 18 months.

So much for that prediction coming true, 1998 prices? Guess what they were in 1998.. $183,288.

Don't bother revising for inflation Rekabus, every time you post a new "Hey look at me, my predictions are coming true" thread it blatently shows just how sad and pathetic your predictions are.

Didn't happen in 2008...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $320,000

My guess? Peak-to-trough, Vancouver might get hit with a solid 50% price decline. A lot less than Kelowna, but then it has a lot more to offer; along with being a cosmopolitan and international city.

with our peak at $553K, we *could* see average home prices at $60K when they bottom out. But in reality, this would probably only happen in a Greater Depression. Despite that requirement, however, Kelowna is shaping up to be one of the hardest-hit areas in Canada.

Didn't happen in 2009...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $270,000

The U.S. Dollar has a greater than 50% chance of collapsing this year. My own personal bet is rather close to 100%....and as the U.S. collapses, we may be facing a massive invasion of very desperate people from South of the 49th. ....these are people who have been raised on guns and violence. Many own guns. Most see guns in person on a daily basis. When things get very desperate, they will not think twice about using violence to obtain enough food to survive another day.......If the worst does happen, our survival as a country and a community will probably depend on our ability to hold and defend the 49th parallel.....And yes, we can be very easily overrun. Some of my worst-case scenarios (a very fast Greater Unwinding) have the Okanagan being overrun by about 8 million U.S. economic refugees (over 3 years). The Okanagan only has a quarter million residents to begin with. That is a 32:1 invader-to-resident ratio. No way in heck are we going to be able to survive that kind of calamity, especially if most of them are desperate and hungry people who aren’t going to think twice about using force and violence to obtain what they need to survive.

That there is quite probably the dumbest pile of crap I have ever read on the internet... And on the internet that is setting the bar pretty high when comparing that post to dumb posts.

Didn't happen in 2010...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $325,000

Current “average” Kelowna home, as of April 2010: $500k.

What the “average” Kelowna home NEEDS to be at 8% variable rates: $183k

RESULT: a 63% drop in Kelowna home values! At MINIMUM!

And what happens when rates go even higher, into the double digits???

CONCLUSION: KELOWNA home values have no-where to go but down. WAAAAAY down. My most optimistic guess? Before all is said and done, we could see a plunge in Kelowna home values of 70-80% before we see a bottom.

Seems like the commercial RE collapse isn’t going to be restricted to the U.S. -- we’re headed for one as well. It probably won’t be here until 2012 or later, but when it hits… it’ll turn the developments on WFN land into a ghost town.

Yeah... prices will be at $183,000 soon....Ghost town... sighs...

Didn't happen in 2011...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $349,000

Ugh… I can’t wait until this housing crash is fully underway, at least then most Realtors and home builders won’t have much money left for advertising, assuming they even still exist.

Yeah, I bet you can't wait.. It must be tiring looking like an absolute dumb *bleep* on the internet.

Doubt it will happen in 2012 either...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $349,000 (January)

I predict you will continue boasting your brilliant knowledge of real estate predictions regardless of just how mis-informed you are while you build a hoard of morons that will blindly follow along hoping for that big crash that will never come. In real life I would tell you to shut the hell up, but here on the internet, the best I can do is shake my head at yet another sad incorect prdiction. See you in another year Nostradamus.

Here is a site, with graphs that just simply shows Rekabis, that you have been wrong all along, and is also where I got the Residential average price for Canada from. Just because he jumps back and fourth between Canadian, US, Kelowna, Uganada, housing, townhouses, Condos, Vancouver, Ontario prices doesen't mean he fools everyone with his smoke and mirror twisting of numbers. He is a complete fraud! Besides that he is also an apple fanboy. Nuff said. Have a great day!

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/

[zyzzx]

And yes, I spelled Prediction incorrectly. Whoops!

[heymac]

What idiot follows the advice of Rekabis? Ones that rent I'd wager, but that is about all. And based on how his predictions fare, they will be renting for the rest of their lives, waiting for that big drop that will simply never come. Rene, you sir are not on the ball, or even the planet for that matter.

In 2007 The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $270,000.

My optimistic prediction? Next year, about May to July, we will suddenly wake up and go, “what the heck?” when we suddenly see house sales screech to a sudden halt (like they did in the States this last August). My pessimistic prediction is some time in 2009. But as sure as the sky is blue and water is wet, we *will* see a major housing correction.

The housing bubble is going to pop, and when it does -- watch out. Our bubble has shown many of the same features as some of the worst in the states (housing starts, overcapacity, investor involvement, flipping schemes, etc.), and their housing market has already plunged by over 35% in value. And that plunge is still accelerating. It has yet to stop accelerating and begin to decelerate, much less level off towards recovery.

Yes, we are about two years behind them, but I predict our plunge will be just as severe, clear back to 1998 prices. And that plunge will begin for us within the next 12 to 18 months.

So much for that prediction coming true, 1998 prices? Guess what they were in 1998.. $183,288.

Don't bother revising for inflation Rekabus, every time you post a new "Hey look at me, my predictions are coming true" thread it blatently shows just how sad and pathetic your predictions are.

Didn't happen in 2008...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $320,000

My guess? Peak-to-trough, Vancouver might get hit with a solid 50% price decline. A lot less than Kelowna, but then it has a lot more to offer; along with being a cosmopolitan and international city.

with our peak at $553K, we *could* see average home prices at $60K when they bottom out. But in reality, this would probably only happen in a Greater Depression. Despite that requirement, however, Kelowna is shaping up to be one of the hardest-hit areas in Canada.

Didn't happen in 2009...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $270,000

The U.S. Dollar has a greater than 50% chance of collapsing this year. My own personal bet is rather close to 100%....and as the U.S. collapses, we may be facing a massive invasion of very desperate people from South of the 49th. ....these are people who have been raised on guns and violence. Many own guns. Most see guns in person on a daily basis. When things get very desperate, they will not think twice about using violence to obtain enough food to survive another day.......If the worst does happen, our survival as a country and a community will probably depend on our ability to hold and defend the 49th parallel.....And yes, we can be very easily overrun. Some of my worst-case scenarios (a very fast Greater Unwinding) have the Okanagan being overrun by about 8 million U.S. economic refugees (over 3 years). The Okanagan only has a quarter million residents to begin with. That is a 32:1 invader-to-resident ratio. No way in heck are we going to be able to survive that kind of calamity, especially if most of them are desperate and hungry people who aren’t going to think twice about using force and violence to obtain what they need to survive.

That there is quite probably the dumbest pile of crap I have ever read on the internet... And on the internet that is setting the bar pretty high when comparing that post to dumb posts.

Didn't happen in 2010...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $325,000

Current “average” Kelowna home, as of April 2010: $500k.

What the “average” Kelowna home NEEDS to be at 8% variable rates: $183k

RESULT: a 63% drop in Kelowna home values! At MINIMUM!

And what happens when rates go even higher, into the double digits???

CONCLUSION: KELOWNA home values have no-where to go but down. WAAAAAY down. My most optimistic guess? Before all is said and done, we could see a plunge in Kelowna home values of 70-80% before we see a bottom.

Seems like the commercial RE collapse isn’t going to be restricted to the U.S. -- we’re headed for one as well. It probably won’t be here until 2012 or later, but when it hits… it’ll turn the developments on WFN land into a ghost town.

Yeah... prices will be at $183,000 soon....Ghost town... sighs...

Didn't happen in 2011...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $349,000

Ugh… I can’t wait until this housing crash is fully underway, at least then most Realtors and home builders won’t have much money left for advertising, assuming they even still exist.

Yeah, I bet you can't wait.. It must be tiring looking like an absolute dumb *bleep* on the internet.

Doubt it will happen in 2012 either...The Residential average price for Canada was roughly $349,000 (January)

I predict you will continue boasting your brilliant knowledge of real estate predictions regardless of just how mis-informed you are while you build a hoard of morons that will blindly follow along hoping for that big crash that will never come. In real life I would tell you to shut the hell up, but here on the internet, the best I can do is shake my head at yet another sad incorect prdiction. See you in another year Nostradamus.

Here is a site, with graphs that just simply shows Rekabis, that you have been wrong all along, and is also where I got the Residential average price for Canada from. Just because he jumps back and fourth between Canadian, US, Kelowna, Uganada, housing, townhouses, Condos, Vancouver, Ontario prices doesen't mean he fools everyone with his smoke and mirror twisting of numbers. He is a complete fraud! Besides that he is also an apple fanboy. Nuff said. Have a great day!

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/

Prepare to eat you're words.

[amourus]

And yes, I spelled Prediction incorrectly. Whoops!

Well, there goes all your credibility...

[Captain Awesome]

I predict rekabis will make more predictions in the future.

With the same trackrecord of them turning out to be false (but highly entertaining)

[36Drew]

Please don't pretend you're replying to me or my "apples to apples" post when in actuality you are replying to one of your alter egos / friends who has placed another set of un-sourced and questionable numbers in front of us.

I'm hardly his alter-ego. The first (2008) number that I pulled matches exactly what you've posted, and from the same source. It's the average house price from page 5. My number matches your number, which matches the PDF.

I don't know what offends me more - the fact that you lack the deduction skills to discern the difference between two posters, or the fact that you purport to have graduated and suck this bad at math and statistical analysis.

I did take DA's 2012 number at face value- he's a realtor. The number that you've pulled, however, is misleading. You've pulled one number from page 5 of the Jan-2012 PDF from a single heading (Residential). One that excludes lots, townhomes, and condos. Since OMREB has changed their reporting format - they've excluded the full average which the number is taken from in 2008, let's do the math and obtain that almighty number:

Apt Average: 267,945
Townhouse Average: 380,372
Lots Average: 171,683
Residential Average: 415,358


Average: 308,840

If you exclude the "Lots Average" you arrive at the 2012 number that I used (from DA) of 354,558.

Once again, the correct version of what you're trying to base on opinion on, this time for your new date range of Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2012:

I just proved above that your numbers are bunk. Wanna try again?

[kgcayenne]

You know, I’d really like someone to point out these houses that have dropped in price so much. We are in the market for a house between $350-$390k, and let me tell ya, we find nothing but rotten crapples on postage stamp lots. Anything that was for sale in the last six months in the range I stated, has already sold, unfortunately we were not in the position to pounce on them when they first came up. They were of a better calibre home than what we’re seeing now, as comparable homes are listing around the $409 – $439 range. So please, if you all know of something that isn’t on a postage stamp lot, doesn’t need $30,000 of updates/repairs and isn’t on a street full of rentals and clutter. DO send me a PM.

I bought my current residence in 2007, just prior to other units where I am spiking up in price one year later by 20%. Currently, units where I am are selling for fairly close to what they were in 2007; a drop of 40% from that 2008 price would make the current selling price 30% lower than what is actually happening.

[normaM]

You know, I’d really like someone to point out these houses that have dropped in price so much. We are in the market for a house between $350-$390k, and let me tell ya, we find nothing but rotten crapples on postage stamp lots. Anything that was for sale in the last six months in the range I stated, has already sold, unfortunately we were not in the position to pounce on them when they first came up. They were of a better calibre home than what we’re seeing now, as comparable homes are listing around the $409 – $439 range. So please, if you all know of something that isn’t on a postage stamp lot, doesn’t need $30,000 of updates/repairs and isn’t on a street full of rentals and clutter. DO send me a PM.

I bought my current residence in 2007, just prior to other units where I am spiking up in price one year later by 20%. Currently, units where I am are selling for fairly close to what they were in 2007; a drop of 40% from that 2008 price would make the current selling price 30% lower than what is actually happening.

shhh, you are being a voice of reason.

[Scadam]

Please don't pretend you're replying to me or my "apples to apples" post when in actuality you are replying to one of your alter egos / friends who has placed another set of un-sourced and questionable numbers in front of us.

I'm hardly his alter-ego. The first (2008) number that I pulled matches exactly what you've posted, and from the same source. It's the average house price from page 5. My number matches your number, which matches the PDF.

I don't know what offends me more - the fact that you lack the deduction skills to discern the difference between two posters, or the fact that you purport to have graduated and suck this bad at math and statistical analysis.

I did take DA's 2012 number at face value- he's a realtor. The number that you've pulled, however, is misleading. You've pulled one number from page 5 of the Jan-2012 PDF from a single heading (Residential). One that excludes lots, townhomes, and condos. Since OMREB has changed their reporting format - they've excluded the full average which the number is taken from in 2008, let's do the math and obtain that almighty number:

Apt Average: 267,945
Townhouse Average: 380,372
Lots Average: 171,683
Residential Average: 415,358


Average: 308,840

If you exclude the "Lots Average" you arrive at the 2012 number that I used (from DA) of 354,558.

Once again, the correct version of what you're trying to base on opinion on, this time for your new date range of Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2012:

I just proved above that your numbers are bunk. Wanna try again?

I'm afraid you didn't prove anything. Please provide a source for your numbers. That means a link or document someone can actually look at to verify that you're correct. Creative numbers and conclusions based on them don't work for most of us. Your conclusion is not relevant if your facts aren't either.

Let's take it from the top. Here is what I already provided:

Jan. 2008
$483,784
http://www.omreb.com/files/01%20-%20Jan ... 0Stats.pdf

Jan. 2012
$415,358
http://www.omreb.com/files/01%20-%20CO% ... 202012.pdf

As you've agreed, the Jan. 2008 number is 483,784.71 from page 5 titled "Average House Price". Your first mistake was to make assumptions about the source of that number. If you go ahead and flip to page 7 it breaks down the source of that number. There are many lines of information here, including Apartments, Lots, Businesses, etc... Look at line 5 "Residential" and you'll see sales of $69,665,000 on a number of units 144. Divide those and that is your $483,784 number, which is for residential only in Jan. 2008.

That pretty much destroys the rest of your "argument" since all you do is putter around with the Jan. 2012 number trying to make it "fair" with your erronious assumption that the 2008 number included things it did not. Using a bizarre mixture of Apartments, Lots, and Townhouses with complete disregard for quantities and ratios, you bastardized any useful information even if you had a credible point to make. I think it would be a low blow to return your cheap shot at my education and stat skills, so I won't...

My comparison was always apples to apples. You agreed with me on the 2012 version being residential only, but instead of looking at 2008 and seeing that it is as well, you chose to perform your bizarre rek-math on the 2012 number.

I hope nobody reading this bases real-life decisions on statements made on an internet forum, where there is no burden of proof. The numbers show 15-16% declines (central okanagan) since 2008. Period. If you're in doubt look at your own appraisals or talk to someone who has. The worst thing about this being in a popular forum is that within a couple pages the doom and gloomers will be all fired up again based on some nonsensical numbers, and any innocent passerby poking their head into this thread will be blindsided by fearful BS.