Okanagan property values down 20-30%??

[jimmy4321]

Guess it depends who you think were buying when things were good? Well to do Old timers from Alberta, lower mainland, how long ya think we can milk that cow

[Glacier]

Houses are actually doing pretty well for sales right now, condos are NOT. I think the Mission Meadows development is still dropping prices (I could be wrong, heard that second hand).

My realtor (amazingly, I actually have an honest one) tells me that the 600,000+ range is still doing quite poorly, but the $300,000-$600,000 range is selling like hotcakes. When I say that land values have dropped, I'm talking 5 acre parcels. It seems that without exception they have dropped while regular city lots have gone either way.

NOTE: I'm talking about Vernon real estate which is lower than Kelowna real estate.

[Hmmm]

Property is like art, the dealer says it has this much value and so forth, however it has no real value until someone buys it. This is really the same for real estate. There are many properties being sold in and around Kelowna and it doesn't really matter what some outside source says your property is worth, it only matters what the buyer is willing to pay for it.

Starter homes at the lower end of the scale, $275k-$350k, that are in decent neighborhoods with little need to fix up, will sell pretty fast because there aren't that many available, however the mid range, 600k-800k are slower moving because they fall in the area, where people either have a lot of money or not. If they are doing very well, that higher mid range cost, won't get a prime lakeshore address and they might just opt for the 1 mill plus range instead. If they are feeling a bit squeezed finally they might go for the more comfortable $450 ish range, since they can still get a lake glimpse anyhow.

Anyway, if you're a seller, I hope you sell fast and if you're a buyer, I hope you get what you want at the price you want.

Enjoy the Sun today. If you need a smile, look deep into my eyes.

[Panzer130]

A better question would be:

Will house prices in the Okanagan drop in the next three or five years?
Answer is: Yes

Do you have some data to back up that prediction?
The cost to build is going up which pushing new homes up. When new homes go up, generally speaking resales go up.

Over the last 2 years my property sales are moving up (slightly)

All the information at my hand says you are incorrect with your prediction, that is why I would like to see something that backs up your claim.

[Thinktank]

Do you have some data to back up that prediction?

No. just Garth Turner's website.

Real estate investing has three giant warts that financial portfolios don’t – illiquidity, leverage and duration. When a housing market decays, buyers disappear and sellers can’t escape. Bad news for property-rich wrinklies. As that happens, prices decline and kiddies with 5% equity soon find they’ve been squished.

Housing plops also last a lot longer. A balanced portfolio taking a hit in 2008 was fully recovered by the end of 2009. But the average Toronto house which was driven 30% lower in 1991 didn’t recover until almost 2007. If 2014 or 2015 brings a real estate correction (it may already be happening in Montreal, Halifax, Victoria…), just imagine the consequences after the entire population has pigged out on 3% mortgage debt.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/page/2/

[Panzer130]

I gotta check my google maps. I could have sworn I was living in Kelowna, not Toronto, Montreal, Halifax, or Victoria.

I also read that report completely opposite of you. I read that as a correction from the drop of 08/09 and that people with low rate mortgages are going to feel the crunch when home prices rise and mortgage rates rise with it.

[jasond_71]

Garth Turner has been making those predictions for years and they have not happened yet. In 2008 he said the Canadian Market would collapse. 6 years later and nothing. He also recommend buying Nortel Stock at $40 a share.
http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/garth ... gy-advice/

No one can predict the real estate market and if they can then they should be Billionaires.

[schmidt64]

I'm in Glenmore and my assessment has gone down around $30K over the last 3 years

[GrooveTunes]

Garth Turner has been making those predictions for years and they have not happened yet. In 2008 he said the Canadian Market would collapse. 6 years later and nothing. He also recommend buying Nortel Stock at $40 a share.
http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/garth ... gy-advice/

No one can predict the real estate market and if they can then they should be Billionaires.

Canadian Capitalist….hahaha……Garth never recommends buying individual stocks unless you are already a millionaire. His portfolio has averaged 8% for the past 6 years. I know…i'm a client.

Anyone that thinks OK real-estate hasn't fallen 20-30% since 2007 has their heads in the sand. All realtors keep saying that the inventory is low and theres' a reason for that. People can't get what thy paid for the over priced valley homes so the listings are not there. I know of 4 that have lost money since we sold 5 years ago. Dream on if you think it's not happening.

[Partmanpartfish]

Do you have some data to back up that prediction?
The cost to build is going up which pushing new homes up. When new homes go up, generally speaking resales go up.

Regardless of the price to build, prices can only rise when demand rises.

If interest rates rise, a lot of would-be buyers will stay renters and a lot of owners will become sellers when their mortgage costs increase. That means an increase in supply and falling prices.

One thing you can always count on is the Bay St. crooks. And when the Bay St. crooks decide it's time to shake down the housing market to extract even more cash from the pockets of Canadians, you can bet to Kingdom Come it will be done.

[Static]

Canadian Capitalist….hahaha……Garth never recommends buying individual stocks unless you are already a millionaire. His portfolio has averaged 8% for the past 6 years. I know…i'm a client.

Of course he doesn't recommend buying individual stocks, he is broker who gets paid by commission for putting your money into others financial products. Buying and sitting on individual stocks is the only way to make real returns in the stock market.

[LoneWolf_53]

ummmmmm....... why are people comparing prices to the peak 5-6 years ago? That was a ridiculous time in real estate where homes prices were grossly over inflated and resulted in a massive crash. Why on earth would anyone want to see that happen again?

I seriously think too many people have the memory of a goldfish.

So what has your take on that got to do with the question?

Yeah it was a ridiculous time, not many arguing that point.

The title of the thread is property values down 20-30%, so naturally it would have to have come down from its peak, at least that's how most would do the math.

If a home was $1 million in 2008 and is now $750,000 then it would be a 25% drop in value. Whether they were over inflated or not is irrelevant. I'm willing to bet a homeowner who experienced the above would agree.

[cv23]

The origional post

From yahoo.ca:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/pay-day-/canadian-cities-where-real-estate-prices-actually-falling-184722537.html
We have seen price increases only in major cities and not in smaller markets,” says Oswald Jurock, real-estate investor and author of Real Estate Action: 55 Action Takers Share Their Secrets. “In the Okanagan, the Koonetays, Vancouver Island, and the Sunshine Coast, there’s been between 20 and 30 per cent for last three years in price decline. It’s not something that’s going to happen; it’s already happening.”
Have property values decreased 20-30%?

No where in Kelowna have we seen this kind of drops in the "last three years". Actually if anything in the "last three years" we've seen prices increase slightly.
2008 was 6 years ago when prices were stupid not just 3 years ago when the big drop had already happened.

[LoneWolf_53]

No where in Kelowna have we seen this kind of drops in the "last three years". Actually if anything in the "last three years" we've seen prices increase slightly.

Well I know someone who sold last year, and she did so for 25% less than cost, after two years listed and about 40 open houses, so there goes that statement.

And no it wasn't a dump, it was a new build in Qual Ridge.

[django]

Doesn't part of Quail ridge over look the dump?