Okanagan property values down 20-30%??

[LANDM]

Garth Turner is perpetually negative on Okanagan real estate. He was predicting a crash from 2001 onwards......all through the biggest boom in pricing we have seen. When it crashed in 2008, he was eventually right.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Thinktank]

usually a broken clock isn't right ever ..... because it doesn't work.

[Bsuds]

usually a broken clock isn't right ever ..... because it doesn't work.

You would be correct if it's a digital clock but a mechanical one with hands is right twice a day, you just may not be sure when.

[Rjamer]

Garth Turner is perpetually negative on Okanagan real estate. He was predicting a crash from 2001 onwards......all through the biggest boom in pricing we have seen. When it crashed in 2008, he was eventually right.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Just a question ,,how do you know he was predicting a crash since 2001?? Where did you read that ??? He never started his blog until 2006, I believe..

[Thinktank]

*removed*

[jasond_71]

Garth Turner worked for a Toronto Newspaper before the blog and has been predicting a real estate crash for a long, long, long time.
Here is a prediction for everyone,

Real estate and the stock market will go up, then it will go down, then it will go up, then down again. I also predict that real estate and the stock market in 15 years will be higher than it is today.

I must be psychic:):)

[merrickhill]

I know i bought my house in 2011, in 2012 my NOA went up as did my taxes, in 2013 my NOA went down by about 5%, but my taxes went up, and in 2014 my NOA went up by about 2% so i'm expecting my taxes to go up again... gotta love the government...

[Glacier]

I know i bought my house in 2011, in 2012 my NOA went up as did my taxes, in 2013 my NOA went down by about 5%, but my taxes went up, and in 2014 my NOA went up by about 2% so i'm expecting my taxes to go up again... gotta love the government...

Taxes are related to the value of your place relative to everyone else. If everyone goes down the same percentage, you are going to pay the exact same as last year (plus the annual increase).

As for property values, the average selling price doesn't tell the whole story. The high end market tanked in 2008, but then prices dropped so people have only recently started buying the more expensive places again. Therefore, you get a scenario where the average selling prices goes up even though property values have not.

[Static]

Real estate and the stock market will go up, then it will go down, then it will go up, then down again. I also predict that real estate and the stock market in 15 years will be higher than it is today.

I must be psychic:):)

Eventually they will both rise but it can take much longer than 15 years. See Japan:

Stock Market

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikkei_225#mediaviewer/File:Nikkei_225(1970-).svg

Real-Estate:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/japan-house-prices--nov08.gif

[LANDM]

[quote="LANDM"Garth Turner is perpetually negative on Okanagan real estate. He was predicting a crash from 2001 onwards......all through the biggest boom in pricing we have seen. When it crashed in 2008, he was eventually right.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.[/quote
Just a question ,,how do you know he was predicting a crash since 2001?? Where did you read that ??? He never started his blog until 2006, I believe..

Because he was travelling and writing and saying this. My memory was actually wrong and it was in 1999 when he wrote his book that gave his sage advice.....incredibly wrong in so many ways, about the real estate and stock market. However, it was the real estate market that he was really negative on and he continued to be so all the way up through the incredible run in pricing that eventually ended in 2008. Well, he was finally right. Just like the broken clock.

[Thinktank]

“While the national market may look healthy,” he says, “activity in the Greater Toronto Area (including Hamilton), the Greater Vancouver Regional District and the Calgary area is skewing the numbers high. In the rest of Canada sales activity has weakened and house prices are flat, and even falling in some communities. Housing has played a key role in driving economic growth and job creation in Canada. But looking ahead, decreased starts and slower price growth will throw off the balance between the housing market and the overall economy.”

^ Garth Turner

June 1, 2014. Garth Turner was wrong. Prices went up in the last three years. But still, anything could happen at any
time. Garth Turner might be right next year, ..........or wrong. Again.

[Glacier]

24 acres of empty land in Lumby was worth $600,00 in 2009. Today it's worth $320,000.

[Hmmm]

24 acres of empty land in Lumby was worth $600,00 in 2009. Today it's worth $320,000.

That kind of property has value in the eye of the beholder only, like art. Someone once said in 2009 that it was worth that much. Or maybe even purchased it, but unless someone's willing to buy it,it's not. Now single dwelling homes in established neighbourhoods, you can say what a value is or was or should be, because there's history and data. Such as similar properties sold. But large land purchases really don't work that way. Even if the guy next to him with a similar size sold it for that much, means nothing. He found a buyer is all that matters. Again, it's like Art, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and so is its value. My advice, find the right buyer.

[LANDM]

24 acres of empty land in Lumby was worth $600,00 in 2009. Today it's worth $320,000.

What are the circumstances? This does not sound correct.
Is it a comparison of asking prices? Assessed values? Sales price? Have there been changes to the property?
Partial farm status?

[Glacier]

The property has been for sale since 2009. Both BC assessed value and the list price have come down that much. This is attached to the nicest subdivision in Lumby too. At the other end of the subdivision is another section of undeveloped land that has a BC Assessed value under half what it was in 2009 (though in both cases both properties aren't as low as they were last year).

Meanwhile the lot values with homes on them have continued to climb, NOT because the land values have gone up, but because the house values have gone up!