House prices 20% overvalued in Canada, Fitch warns

[Panzer130]

]

Tell that to folks who bought homes in Phoenix, Miami, Detroit, Houston, Atlanta, [fill in blank], in 2007 because "home prices will continue to climb". Many will never recover from the crash. I'm afraid your revisionist history is a fail.

But "it's different here", right?

Sigh..................

You are on a Kelowna website, on a Kelowna forum, talking about Kelowna prices.................

But that said: Look at the average home price in Phoenix, Miami, Detroit, Houston, Atlanta, [fill in blank], in 1970 and tell me if the average price of a home has increased or not.

Please read my previous post carefully. I specifically stated

Look back in history; there are always booms and busts, but the market still continues to slowly climb. Home prices will continue to rise through all busts & booms.

[TheDudeAbides]

There in-lies your error. You are trying to use simple math to calculate a complex problem.

You need to calculate for some very important variables:
1.) Creating land to live on in Kelowna is becoming more & more expensive
2.) The population moving to Kelowna have higher incomes or significantly higher savings / pensions
3.) Kelowna is a destination point for retirement - throughout Canada

Kelowna is certainly not immune to economic impacts felt across the country, but you can not use your "simple math" when making market comparisons. Kelowna felt a large adjustment in 2008. It is just now slowly recovering. Believe me, this is a slow recovery, not a boom.
Look back in history; there are always booms and busts, but the market still continues to slowly climb. Home prices will continue to rise through all busts & booms.

Florida is a retirement destination and that didn't stop the US housing crash down there. There are far more people and a lot less land down there.

Where do you think those "higher incomes or significantly higher savings/pensions" come from? Hint, it involves house prices and interest rates. Lol

Given your line of thinking I'm surprised you didn't mention the Chinese and Japanese moving in to save the day...lol. That is another hilarous one I hear all the time.

This assumption people make that Kelowna is different is stupid. Money and interest rates don't change when you move to Kelowna.

[TylerM4]

8 years ago I bought my 1st home in Kelowna. 2 years into what turned out to be a 4 year housing boom.

I bought it against the common opionion on the Forums that I was crazy with the common theme being "The bubble is going to pop". Since then, that's all i've been reading on these forums "the bubble is going to pop any day now..." for almost 10 years!

I am SO GLAD I didn't listen to all of the nay-sayers as my home is now worth nearly double what it was worth back then.
I'd be so screwed now if I had listened to all of the advice saying to rent until the bubble bursts.

[Hmmm]

dudes dead wrong.

[Jonrox]

Tell that to folks who bought homes in Phoenix, Miami, Detroit, Houston, Atlanta, [fill in blank], in 2007 because "home prices will continue to climb". Many will never recover from the crash. I'm afraid your revisionist history is a fail.

But "it's different here", right?

There are some old threads here about this very topic that reached epic proportions (they got into the hundreds of pages). They're years old now and filled with the same comments you're making now.

To this point, Kelowna has shown that it IS different than all of those cities that saw massive crashes.

You can say a crash will happen and I can say at some point the average price of a home here will be a million bucks. We'll both be right at some point - housing is cyclical and in the long, long run will appreciate. So without us putting timeframes to our statements, they mean nothing.

I can keep saying it's 2pm, even though it's only 11am. You'll keep telling me I'm wrong, but if I keep saying it often enough, I'll be right in about 3 hours. And then I'll say, "I told you so."

[TheDudeAbides]

8 years ago I bought my 1st home in Kelowna. 2 years into what turned out to be a 4 year housing boom.

I bought it against the common opionion on the Forums that I was crazy with the common theme being "The bubble is going to pop". Since then, that's all i've been reading on these forums "the bubble is going to pop any day now..." for almost 10 years!

I am SO GLAD I didn't listen to all of the nay-sayers as my home is now worth nearly double what it was worth back then.
I'd be so screwed now if I had listened to all of the advice saying to rent until the bubble bursts.

Lol....we'll see.

[TheDudeAbides]

There are some old threads here about this very topic that reached epic proportions (they got into the hundreds of pages). They're years old now and filled with the same comments you're making now.

To this point, Kelowna has shown that it IS different than all of those cities that saw massive crashes.

You can say a crash will happen and I can say at some point the average price of a home here will be a million bucks. We'll both be right at some point - housing is cyclical and in the long, long run will appreciate. So without us putting timeframes to our statements, they mean nothing.

I can keep saying it's 2pm, even though it's only 11am. You'll keep telling me I'm wrong, but if I keep saying it often enough, I'll be right in about 3 hours. And then I'll say, "I told you so."

Haha...We'll see....
See above video.

[TheDudeAbides]

Hey castanet moderators. Your youtube embedding link does not work. Maybe spend less time looking for posts to delete and more time fixing your forum.

[ferri]

actually it does work. i fixed it for you. in the future if you have a problem with the moderating on this board you need to pm your problem directly and not go off topic.

[Symbonite]

the problem is that people are paying for the over inflated prices!

[atenbacon]

Haha...We'll see....

I bet you're saving a fortune by renting, probably have enough to buy a couple of houses by now for sure.

I own my home clear, it isn't worth a penny because I'm living in it. I will let you know how I did once I go and sell it though OK? Because I own my home, I don't care much for these threads that threaten doom and gloom with the usual "It'll happen soon, it's about to pop, just wait and see..." they serve little purpost and are far from helpful to anyone who plans to live within their own means.

Yeah, true story, If I had listened to you renters back then I would still be renting, I am thankful I made a decision based on my own situation rather than listening to theirs, my housing costs the equivalent of my property taxes, upkeep and improvements. Whoopee!

[Bpeep]

And at the *bleep* end of their life, all the renters can pass down a big box of rent receipts to their children.

[TheDudeAbides]

And at the *bleep* end of their life, all the renters can pass down a big box of rent receipts to their children.

You may be trying to be sarcastic but if so you accidentally are correct anyways. They won't pass on a debt in the form of a mortgage and/or property taxes? Also you think the gov't won't want a piece? Imagine what all that money they saved over 20-40 years could do when properly invested. Dividend stocks have historically outperformed real estate. You never have to deal with anyone, never have to fix the roof or replace the furnace, don't pay property taxes and can liquidate in a day.

Maybe a basic math lesson will help. If 10 years rent does not pay for the house you are probably better off renting. That used to be a very common calculation but now a days you never hear it because it's just not possible anymore. Realtors would make the mere mention of it illegal if they could.

Your parents probably still try tell you that buying is cheaper than renting over the long term because that used to be true....30year ago.

[TheDudeAbides]

I bet you're saving a fortune by renting, probably have enough to buy a couple of houses by now for sure.

I own my home clear, it isn't worth a penny because I'm living in it. I will let you know how I did once I go and sell it though OK? Because I own my home, I don't care much for these threads that threaten doom and gloom with the usual "It'll happen soon, it's about to pop, just wait and see..." they serve little purpost and are far from helpful to anyone who plans to live within their own means.

Yeah, true story, If I had listened to you renters back then I would still be renting, I am thankful I made a decision based on my own situation rather than listening to theirs, my housing costs the equivalent of my property taxes, upkeep and improvements. Whoopee!

Did you get your property assessment yet like a few people I know who are still in shock over it? You are looking at at least $3000 a year right? Not a huge deal but hardly "free and clear" either. That new indoor pool and artificial wave doesn't pay for itself you know. Also these sculptures of bears and traffic light boxes dressed up to be apple boxes. That all cost money and you homeowners are the ones paying for it.

Not sure who is paying for the new yacht club but I wouldn't be surprised if that was also being footed by homeowners.

[Oxl3y]

Did you get your property assessment yet like a few people I know who are still in shock over it? You are looking at at least $3000 a year right? Not a huge deal but hardly "free and clear" either. No problem, just delay replacing the furnace or fixing the roof for another year....maybe get some meth head renter in your basement.

I got nothing against owning vs renting. Not when it's over valued by at least 40% though. Up to you it's your money.

He owns his home clear...so 3000/12 is $250 a month. Hardly bank breaking or meth addict tenant requiring.