BC in 2013, ....and beyond.

[NAB]

So how are we doing on this one just a year and a bit on folks? ;-)

Nab

[Madtaxi]

Seriously you have to ask.

[Rwede]

Yawn.

[NAB]

B.C. residents have dark view of economy in 2012

By Derrick Penner and Eric Lam, Vancouver Sun and Postmedia News January 5, 2012 10:22 PM

British Columbia’s economy is expected to grow by 2.2 per cent this year. According to a poll, 35 per cent of B.C. residents felt they were losing ground economically.

The year might be fresh and new, but Canadians already have a dark view of their economic prospects for 2012 with large numbers believing the country is already in recession and top economists seeing storm clouds as far out as 2013.

The views of economists from Canada’s five biggest banks are coloured by expectations that the budget tightening that Americans largely deferred in 2011 will finally take hold in 2013, creating its own economic restraint.

Those economists presented their view Thursday to an event hosted by the Economic Club of Canada, the tone for which was set by Economic Club polling results that show 70 per cent of Canadians believe Canada has already slipped back into recession.

“That does surprise me,” said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union in an interview, because “Canada is not in a recession. The United States is not in a recession.”

Nationally, 63 per cent of respondents said they believed Canada is in a mild recession and seven per cent reported a belief the recession is severe. For the B.C. component, those numbers were 68 per cent and five per cent.

“Canadians, in aggregate, are remarkably canny about the economy,” Michael Marzolini, chairman of Pollara, said while presenting the survey findings. “It’s the most pessimistic findings we’ve had in 16 years. Canadians are more self-centred.”

Considering Canada is in an economic climate where job growth is slow and wage increases lacklustre, Pastrick added that perceptions that people aren’t getting ahead is understandable.

In the polling data, commissioned by the Economic Club and conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights, respondents reporting generally feeling they are “holding their own” or falling behind when it comes to matters of personal finances.

On the question of how respondents felt about their finances in a general sense, 48 per cent said they were merely holding their own. In B.C., however, the number was 51 per cent.

However, 33 per cent nationally said they felt they were losing ground at the national level, a proportion that rose to 35 per cent in B.C.

“That does speak to income growth, and the lack thereof,” Pastrick added.

Inflation, Pastrick said, averaged about 2.8 per cent in 2011, and was “higher than typical wage gains.”

Ken Peacock, vice-president and chief economist for the Business Council of B.C., added that the perceptions of Canadians also appears to reflect the steady stream of bad news about a possible recession in Europe and escalating debt in the U.S.

“The world is definitely uncertain, to say the least,” Peacock said, “and I think some of those external factors are going to start to weigh on B.C.”

However, in the meantime, Peacock said Canada “just doesn’t have that same level of problem or concern.”

The provincial government’s most recent survey of its Economic Forecast Council, estimated B.C.’s economy will grow 2.2 per cent in 2012, which is “not a vigorous or robust climate,” Peacock added.

Nationally, the bank economists have concerns about 2013, based on what they see potentially happening in the U.S.

“What does 2013 look like? Not a whole lot better than 2012,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist with CIBC World Markets, said Thursday. “As the U.S. defers fiscal tightening for another year, 2013 is set up for huge fiscal tightening to hit the U.S. economy.”

Craig Alexander, chief economist with TD Economics, warned that the many desperate fiscal decisions the United States has made over the past few years will truly come to roost in 2013.

These include the billions spent in stimulus spending, tax cuts, bailouts and record high deficits since the financial crisis, as well as the total gridlock in Washington that came to a head in 2011 when politicians failed to find a long-term solution to the nation’s debt crisis.

“Many of those fiscal measures are expiring, and as they expire they will create a drag on the economy. What is more stark is what happens in 2013,” Alexander said.

The margin for error is 1.8 per cent 19 times out of 20 for the national results.

[Rwede]

Negative, negative, negative. No wonder some people can't break free and make something out of themselves. Life must seriously suck for them, crying 24/7 about how terrible things are, while the rest of us enjoy life and make the most of what we have.

[NAB]

Well Ricky, at least you cannot accuse the people expressing the views in that article as being some socialist hordes left wing nutjobs with a union based agenda

Edit to add: BTW, has anyone seen anything of Stats Can 2011 wrapup yet? I thought I understood it would be out today. I see the final 2011 CPI is out, and that isn't particularly pretty.

Nab

[Rwede]

It's not the people writing the article I'm concerned about. It's the people that search 24/7 for negative crap to clutter these boards with. Those are the ones who are going to burst a vein stressing on things over which they have no ontrol. What a chitty life.

[NAB]

Ya really left yourself open on that one Dick, but I'll resist the urge to point them out and try to stay on topic instead ;-)

Nab

[Urbane]

I think what's likely changed or least become more clear in the last year is the emergence of the BC Conservative Party. I see them as likely more than a spoiler and a genuine contender to become government. A year ago your analysis of a cliffhanger between the NDP and the Liberals made sense but now I don't see the Liberals involved in any cliffhanger. What's also changed is what you said about the HST. It isn't here to stay and it will be gone in another year or so.

[flamingfingers]

Interesting piece by none other than KEITH BALDREY!! (who'd a thunk?)

Little evidence NDP leader a socialist menace
By Keith Baldrey, Special to Coquitlam Now January 11, 2012

Aha! I think we now know a key source of NDP leader Adrian Dix's professed desire to bring a "modest" approach to governing.

Why, it's none other than his mentor and ex-boss: former premier Glen Clark!

After staying out of the public eye for a decade, Clark gave a wide-ranging interview with my Global BC colleague Jas Johal, and in it he showed he has a far different perspective as a businessman than he did as a politician.

The Clark of today seems less enthralled with government being the answer to so many problems, thinks unions need to be more flexible and cooperative with management and understands the business of business is to make money and profits.

When he was premier, government intervention in the economy was a key part of his agenda. So were high taxes on businesses, another thing Clark the businessman doesn't like today. Government is a big operation, and Clark is now leery of its effectiveness.

"I have less confidence in big bureaucracies, government or business, because they become so unwieldy and difficult to manage," he told Johal.

He still believes in fundamental rights for workers, but warns unions have to change attitudes in the modern economy.
"In the world we're in now . labour really has to think hard about how they approach private business," he said.

He thinks Crown corporations exist to make money for government and not to simply "treat people better" without making a profit.

And he's acutely aware that free trade and globalization are here to stay, and businesses have to adapt quickly to change (it's this kind of attitude that is viewed with horror by a number of NDP activists).

Clark is, of course, the right-hand man of the godfather of B.C. business, Jimmy Pattison. When Clark was hired by Pattison soon after leaving office in a cloud of controversy, many people were shocked by the appointment.

But I wasn't surprised at all, given Clark's intelligence and instincts and the fact that Pattison had long before voiced his support for him (which infuriated the B.C. Liberals in the run-up to the 1996 election, which Clark won).

And I'm not surprised Clark has risen through the ranks of Pattison's empire to become company president. Clark is the type of guy who tends to dominate whatever group he happens to be part of.

The question that arises now, of course, is what kind of influence will this ex-politician, who has significantly changed his philosophy, have on the man who has a very good shot at taking on the same job he used to have?

The ties between Clark and Dix are deep and significant. Clark always struck me as a mentor of sorts for Dix, as the two men forged a close bond between 1991 (when Dix began working for him as a ministerial assistant) and 1999, when Dix was forced to quit as his chief of staff.

In 2005, Dix ended up taking over Clark's old riding of Vancouver-Kingsway and the two remain close friends.

So it's hard to think that a more conservative Clark won't have a significant impact on Dix's own political philosophy.
Although the B.C. Liberals are trying to portray Dix as some kind of far-left socialist menace, the only evidence - if you can call it that - to back up that assertion is dredging up the track record of the NDP government of the 1990s.

Dix has offered precious little evidence of his own to help them. He's proposed raising corporate taxes to the levels the B.C. Liberals themselves established in 2008, which is hardly a radical socialist policy.

Instead, Dix is talking about narrowing the activities of government instead of expanding them - just as his old boss advocates.

So don't be surprised if Dix turns out to be closer to the new Glen Clark than the old one: more moderate, business-friendly and less activist.

After all, if one of the top figures in the former NDP government can change so much, why can't another?

By the way, Johal's three-part series on Clark and Pattison - entitled "The Odd Couple: the Premier and the Billionaire" - can be seen on Global BC's website. It contains more extensive footage of the interview with Clark.

Read more: http://www.thenownews.com/business/Litt ... z1k1WQOaUw

[NAB]

I think what's likely changed or least become more clear in the last year is the emergence of the BC Conservative Party. I see them as likely more than a spoiler and a genuine contender to become government. A year ago your analysis of a cliffhanger between the NDP and the Liberals made sense but now I don't see the Liberals involved in any cliffhanger. What's also changed is what you said about the HST. It isn't here to stay and it will be gone in another year or so.

Hey Urbane..

-When the HST is gone
-Feel free to call me wrong


...in the meantime, it is still with us, and will probably still be with us in 2013 as I forecast well over a year ago ;-)

...and I still think the next election will be a cliffhanger, particularly if Christy Clark is gone before then. If she leads the Liberals into the next election then you could well be more right than I with the Liberals retaining few, if any, seats.

Edit to add: When I was trying back in 2010 to see the future into 2013, I honestly didn't see someone like Christy becoming part of the mix out of the blue. In fact, I had my bets on a then current member of Cabinet, namely George Abbott, the consensus builder. I didn't for a moment think the Liberals would end up with a leader probably more suited to leading the NDP, and was pretty sure Kevin Falcon would not be acceptable because he was so much a clone and butt kisser of Gordon Campbell.

Nab

[Urbane]

Yes, I think predicting a cliffhanger in the next election between the NDP and the LIberals, as you did back in 2010, was understandable. A lot has happened since then and lot will likely happen between now and the next election but I see no way that Christy Clark can turn the Liberal government around and win the next election. It's just not in the cards.

[NAB]

Interesting piece by none other than KEITH BALDREY!! (who'd a thunk?)

Little evidence NDP leader a socialist menace
By Keith Baldrey, Special to Coquitlam Now January 11, 2012

Aha! I think we now know a key source of NDP leader Adrian Dix's professed desire to bring a "modest" approach to governing.

Why, it's none other than his mentor and ex-boss: former premier Glen Clark!

After staying out of the public eye for a decade, Clark gave a wide-ranging interview with my Global BC colleague Jas Johal, and in it he showed he has a far different perspective as a businessman than he did as a politician.

The Clark of today seems less enthralled with government being the answer to so many problems, thinks unions need to be more flexible and cooperative with management and understands the business of business is to make money and profits.

When he was premier, government intervention in the economy was a key part of his agenda. So were high taxes on businesses, another thing Clark the businessman doesn't like today. Government is a big operation, and Clark is now leery of its effectiveness.

"I have less confidence in big bureaucracies, government or business, because they become so unwieldy and difficult to manage," he told Johal.

He still believes in fundamental rights for workers, but warns unions have to change attitudes in the modern economy.
"In the world we're in now . labour really has to think hard about how they approach private business," he said.

He thinks Crown corporations exist to make money for government and not to simply "treat people better" without making a profit.

And he's acutely aware that free trade and globalization are here to stay, and businesses have to adapt quickly to change (it's this kind of attitude that is viewed with horror by a number of NDP activists).

Clark is, of course, the right-hand man of the godfather of B.C. business, Jimmy Pattison. When Clark was hired by Pattison soon after leaving office in a cloud of controversy, many people were shocked by the appointment.

But I wasn't surprised at all, given Clark's intelligence and instincts and the fact that Pattison had long before voiced his support for him (which infuriated the B.C. Liberals in the run-up to the 1996 election, which Clark won).

And I'm not surprised Clark has risen through the ranks of Pattison's empire to become company president. Clark is the type of guy who tends to dominate whatever group he happens to be part of.

The question that arises now, of course, is what kind of influence will this ex-politician, who has significantly changed his philosophy, have on the man who has a very good shot at taking on the same job he used to have?

The ties between Clark and Dix are deep and significant. Clark always struck me as a mentor of sorts for Dix, as the two men forged a close bond between 1991 (when Dix began working for him as a ministerial assistant) and 1999, when Dix was forced to quit as his chief of staff.

In 2005, Dix ended up taking over Clark's old riding of Vancouver-Kingsway and the two remain close friends.

So it's hard to think that a more conservative Clark won't have a significant impact on Dix's own political philosophy.
Although the B.C. Liberals are trying to portray Dix as some kind of far-left socialist menace, the only evidence - if you can call it that - to back up that assertion is dredging up the track record of the NDP government of the 1990s.

Dix has offered precious little evidence of his own to help them. He's proposed raising corporate taxes to the levels the B.C. Liberals themselves established in 2008, which is hardly a radical socialist policy.

Instead, Dix is talking about narrowing the activities of government instead of expanding them - just as his old boss advocates.

So don't be surprised if Dix turns out to be closer to the new Glen Clark than the old one: more moderate, business-friendly and less activist.

After all, if one of the top figures in the former NDP government can change so much, why can't another?

By the way, Johal's three-part series on Clark and Pattison - entitled "The Odd Couple: the Premier and the Billionaire" - can be seen on Global BC's website. It contains more extensive footage of the interview with Clark.

Read more: http://www.thenownews.com/business/Litt ... z1k1WQOaUw

It just goes to show flaming that intelligent people do learn from their mistakes while dummies don't, as well as display a capability to change as the times require, ...and not judge the present and the future on long dead in the past performances when things political relative to the economy of the times were much different, ...like a few here (as well as in this coalition government) still continue to do ;-).

Edit to add: BTW, I don't think the winning of the leadership by the nobody out of nowhere (CC) was so much an endorsement of her as it was a rejection by the party of everyone and everything else associated with the Coalition government. Whoda thunk back in early 2010 that such a thing as the Coalition Left Wing could produce such a quantum shift left in leadership.

Nab

[Urbane]

It comes down to political reality. Stephen Harper figured out a long time ago that pushing a social conservative agenda would simply keep him out of power (and I don't think he's that motivated on many of the social issues anyway) so political pragmatism takes over. Harper is a smart guy and so is Adrian Dix. In British Columbia it's not the social issues so much but the economic ones and Dix knows that to get elected he has to soft pedal the anti-business tax raising policies and promote policies that are attractive to voters. I think Dix will say as little as possible between now and the next election and if he becomes Premier of British Columbia I'm somewhat optimistic that he will govern more toward the middle than toward the radical left. If he doesn't he'll be a one term premier for sure.

[damngrumpy]

I wonder if the Liberals will get to 2013, they are sinking for some good reasons and
an election may be required. Contrary to some beliefs, the current legislation says
the election must be held by that date and that will mean they will go earlier than
letting the mandate run out. In the first place, the Liberals have angered too many
people to retain power. People are angry and I believe with a third term government
with no vision they are preparing for defeat.
The new Conservatives do not have the support of the Federal Conservatives and they
will stay around long enough to spell the end for Christy Crunch and her little lap dogs.
These people didn't have a backbone and that is their collective problem. Face it if one
of them stood up to Campbell with the party behind them they would not be in this trouble.
The Greens are done, and they will not impact this election except in one or maybe two
riding's.
The NDP is on a roll and they are looking more like a government than an opposition and
that is the problem the Liberals have. Twice the New Democrats stood up and backed
Liberal bills in the House, and the reason is it was good legislation.
Attack adds on Dix are the indications that they are becoming desperate because there is
nothing else in their bag of tricks and people look at this and see right through them