An early start to the fire season means nothing

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Glacier
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An early start to the fire season means nothing

Post by Glacier »

Remember how 11 of the 12 largest fires ever started in April took place in 2016, and the experts were saying this could be a sign of things to come. Well, it turns out that 11 of the 12 largest fires in BC this year (and 18 of the top 21) were started in April.

After it was all said and done, 2016 was below average.

bcwildfirecosts.png
Last edited by Glacier on Jan 21st, 2017, 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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w84u2
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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What do you suppose was the cause for the drop?
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

Post by rustled »

With all but three of those years exceeding their budget, it looks like we need to budget a great deal more. Where's the graph from, Glacier? (This one'd for cost, not hectares affected. Is there an other one for that?)
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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w84u2 wrote:What do you suppose was the cause for the drop?

Rain.
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Glacier
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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rustled wrote:With all but three of those years exceeding their budget, it looks like we need to budget a great deal more. Where's the graph from, Glacier? (This one'd for cost, not hectares affected. Is there an other one for that?)

As you wish...

bcwildfires.png


bcwildfirecosts2.png


P.S. The budget is set as the minimum if no fires take place. Sometimes they are slightly under budget because fire fighters are paid by other provinces when BC has a low year and other jurisdictions have an active year.

Also, top 30 largest fires in BC since 2002.
top30.png
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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w84u2 wrote:What do you suppose was the cause for the drop?

Glacier wrote:Rain.

:spitcoffee:
Is there any correlation between the amount of rain and the chemtrails :runforlife:
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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Glacier wrote: Well, it turns out that 11 of the 12 largest fires in BC this year (and 18 of the top 21) were started in April.

After it was all said and done, 2016 was below average.


w84u2 wrote:What do you suppose was the cause for the drop?


Currently, my research paper contemplates the offshore influence of the transitioning El Nino to La Nina state of the Pacific Ocean. It explores the connection between the increased atmospheric presence of DHMO (hydroxilic acid) in British Columbia, particularly the Okanagan, and the resultant; significantly fewer fire starts, and generally decreased fire behaviour, observed during the 2016 fire season. Of course, hydroxilic acid is commonly used as a fire suppressant, and is in fact, the primary delivery agent of the red fire retardant dropped from our air tankers during the summer months.

Background facts:
* Hydroxilic acid is also known as dihydrogen monoxide.
* corrosive, a major component of acid rain, contributes to the “greenhouse effect”, and is credited with erosion of our natural environment.
* may cause severe burns and accelerate corrosion of ferrous alloys.
* commonly present in excised cancer tumors.
* fatal if inhaled; consumed in large quantities can lead to symptoms similar to intoxication, and ultimately cause internal organ failure.
* The Okanagan generally, and specifically those communities fronting both Okanagan and Skaha lakes have fatality rates slightly elevated above the current national average of 1.5/100,000

A full chemical compound MSDS sheet can be found here: http://www.dhmo.org/msds/MSDS-DHMO-Kemp.pdf

The influence dihydrogen oxide has over the flammability of our wildland fuel complex is irrefutable. In fact, it's so important, the BC Wildfire Service maintains about 260 weather stations, that monitor both the DHMO air saturation and the surface level accumulation of hydroxilic acid. Those hourly observations are then inputted into the computer-based CFFDRS which provides fire managers with a technological aid used in prevention, preparedness and suppression decisions.

w84u2 wrote:Is there any correlation between the amount of rain and the chemtrails.


I’d like to take this opportunity to thank you w84u2. I think you may have given me an opportunity to expand my current thesis paper; to further postulate the various interdependencies between chemtrails and elevated levels of atmospheric DHMO.

Few people could dispute the growing body of research to support the year over year trend, of an increasing number of jets in the upper atmosphere leaving behind persistent observable trails.

Although seldom expressed as such, and often dismissed as merely contrails, contemporary peer reviewed science has concluded, beyond any significant doubt: chemtrails, are a result of the physical state change observable during the crystallization of hydroxilic acid; that occurs at, or below, a temperature of 273.16 Kelvins.

I do believe there is an interdependency between elevated levels of DHMO and chem-trails. Although, in my preliminary research, it would be impossible to conclude such a relationship could be classified as causational in nature, there is presently no body of research to suggest chemtrails ameliorate amplified levels of atmospheric hydroxilic acid either.

Thanks again for the post. Just wanted to assure you there’s no conspiracy amongst those of us that are in, or follow, the international wildland fire community, when it comes to chemtrails.

Relax – we’ve got a critical eye on this stuff - man.

{Glacier, I wonder if you’d be into a collaboration effort on this topic. I believe with your analytical skills, penchant for presenting empirical data, and my… ugh… hmm… Well, okay, if you’re into collaborating – at least we’d still have your skills.}
Last edited by Drip_Torch on Dec 21st, 2016, 1:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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Holy fark
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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tsayta wrote:Holy fark


I can assure you the intention wasn’t just “wholly fark”.

Every now and then, I get the urge to grab the truth by the back of neck, throw it up into the air, shake it about and spin it around a few times. I’d like you to believe it’s an intellectual pursuit in random existentialism. However, I’ll admit, it could just be the result of reading castanet forums.

The intention was to create a critical thought exercise. A completely accurate, factually correct context that leads to a truth that very few could support. It’s a subtle reminder that the truth isn’t always as self-evident as we, as individuals, understand it to be. Far more often than not, societal truths are negotiated, compromised, and simplified with small narratives created by big social constructs that hold narrow interests. That’s not to suggest anything nefarious is going on, it’s simply an attempt to point out that sometimes in dealing with societal issues key elements get lost in the dialogue.

The world moves fast, life is complex and change is a constant. Holding the truth, speaking the truth, shaping the truth are commodities that can be further ground down into little bits and sold in newspapers, or used to generate interest that can be marketed to. In my opinion, the truth is always evolving.

So, with that in mind, and for those of you that don’t understand the point to my previous post, or haven’t had the time, or inclination to lend any critical thought to what I presented – the reveal. The molecular chemical formula for dihydrogen monoxide, hydroxilic acid, hydrogen hydroxide, etc… is H2O – a chemical compound commonly known as water.

It was all a play in chemical nomenclature.
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tsayta
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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Yes. Is it properly called dihydrogen oxide? Btw, I chuckled at the thought of 'the truth being thrown up in the air and spun around'. Can't wait till he reads this
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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That is the best idea yet... I dont know about a him..... surely an IT....
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w84u2
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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tsayta wrote:Yes. Is it properly called dihydrogen oxide? Btw, I chuckled at the thought of 'the truth being thrown up in the air and spun around'. Can't wait till he reads this


I think it is more aptly called, "dihydrogen monoxide". :smt045

http://www.dhmo.org/

This is a very dangerous chemical compound that should be treated with great care and respect.
Jun. 26, 2000 - DHMO Linked to E. coli Danger
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Re: An early start to the fire seaon means nothing

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DHMO has even been responsible for many highway accidents and deaths here in BC.
http://www.dhmo.org/alerts/advisory030900
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Re: An early start to the fire season means nothing

Post by Drip_Torch »

While, I agree with the OP’s premise in context, the title has given me the opportunity to wedge in a soap-box post.

An early start to our fire season doesn’t entirely mean nothing.

Of course, weather-wise it’s not a very meaningful indicator, and last year could have easily gone either way. There is rhythm to these things and the pattern that I was watching had quite a bit more to do with the ocean state and jet stream than the start of the season. I’m not sure what the experts were watching, but suffice to say, they do tend to see further and know more.

What it does mean is that our resources; both provincial and contract, are tied up and unavailable to participate in the national Mutual Aid Resource Sharing (MARS) agreements. For the Province, this is a lost opportunity to get some boots dirty, recoup a small piece of our suppression budget, as well as, gain some crew experience on another jurisdictions dime. For the contractors, it’s a lost revenue opportunity, as they tend get held in contingency and perhaps, not even put on standby. As it worked out, with the season falling as flat as it did, contractors are likely experiencing challenges with crew continuity, training currency and perhaps even experiencing attrition through the retirement of experienced older crew and a lack of interest from younger crew to commit and move up the ranks through their agencies.

As someone that does lend this topic some critical thought, I always endeavour to reconcile my own personal point of view, with the balance responsible agencies strive to maintain to fulfil their mandates. That is to say; I try to see things from the Wildfire Service and Emergency Management BC perspective, as it relates to their mandates. Still, I’m ambivalent to this situation. I appreciate the fact that we don’t have crews deployed and aren’t incurring costs associated with people, we don’t really need, sitting on standby. But, I’m also aware of the fact that the only way we can have experienced firefighters, that are current in training, is to have them out there – training and getting the experience.

The available daily sit reports, though somewhat vague, suggested to me that there was an opportunity last year to use BC crews, but for reasons I don’t entirely understand, those crews that could have be drawn down, seemed to get passed over for type 1 crews out of the US, Mexico and even South Africa. If I were to ask the question, I’ve been around long enough to know what the answers would be, and I’m completely unsatisfied with those answers. In reference to last year, I don’t have a clue where those decisions were made (BC, Alberta or Winnipeg), but I do have to question whether those decisions were being made with a long view and in BC’s best interest. We’ve got good people in this province; committed, motivated and engaged, but they need the opportunity to remain so, and without them, we’re reliant on crews from outside the jurisdiction. Causing both lag and expense, in travel time, crew familiarity with local conditions and safe work procedures, etc.

My opinion is largely drawn from my own experience. Here’s a story that’s made the rounds locally: http://www.castanet.net/news/Penticton/ ... ers-career , and I share some similar anecdotes, watched “Emergency” when I was a kid, and entered the fire service around the same year. Difference being – I never wanted to be a firefighter, but more so, I never wanted to see my neighbours need for a helping hand that I could give. As it ended up, I did both sides, fire service and wildland. Was frequently put through Naden’s ship simulator, Chevron’s bulk storage fire ground, lots of JI time, and of course, somehow along the way developed a lifelong interest WUI issues. I’ve had the ability to go back to a number of pieces of ground that I’ve worked and know first-hand how important fire is to our ecosystem.

My experience, looking back, all these years later – a privilege that opened many doors for me.

I see the impressions people have of fire fighters and know that it ranges from “super-hot red seal equivalent super heros” to “highly overpaid stat collecting, tv watching, station sloths”.

The reality is we’re a province of approximately 4.5 million people covering just shy of 1 million square kilometers. Factor out Metro Vancouver’s 2700 square kilometers, where 2.4 million people live; and a handful of other major population centers, and you’ll quickly realize we’re still a province of just shy of a million square kilometres and we’ve got a couple million people spread out over it. The typical fire fighter in BC is neither a super hero, nor a station sloth. The typical fire fighter is your neighbour, willing to commit some time, develop some skills, gain some understanding and be there for you when you really need them.

If you read my posts, you’ll know I believe in the system, (even though I know full well it only really works a little more often than Santa does) I cheer for the system, I defend the system – but only because I know the system isn’t carved in stone and we can change it.

The point to this post: An early fire season, shouldn’t mean our guys are shut out for the season. “Our opportunity is here” too. It’s our opportunity to keep a few people from small town BC working, upgrading their skills, engaged, participating, and just being there for us when we really need them – and that day will come.

A community is more than a collection of buildings; and resiliency isn’t something that can sent through the mail from Ottawa or Victoria. A resilient community contains people that get things done for no other reason than they need to be done.

Here's a little eye candy I'm including just for fun. Marine wildfire operations northwest of Bella Coola.

Hey, wait a minute...
Hey, wait a minute...


...we've never had marine firefighting operations - says, the powers that be.
...we've never had marine firefighting operations - says, the powers that be.


There’s two things I’ve learned with my participation in emergency situations that stand out above all else: “things are never so bad they can’t get worse” and “things are never so good they can’t get better.”

(And with that said, a random guy on the internet drops the mic, steps off the soap box and mutters to himself, “Damn, that feels better.”)
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tsayta
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Re: An early start to the fire season means nothing

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Holy fark! Epic
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