"It's the economy, stupid" - BUT

[Gone_Fishin]

This 'study ' was done in 2013 - the oil price plunge started in June of 2014....

I guess they never considered that eventuality, eh?

Do you know how cyclical markets work in long term projections?

[flamingfingers]

The report says:

It was, in short, a year of growth. But it was
also a year marked by a clear and central
theme: access to markets. The Energy
Resources Conservation Board (ERCB)
estimates that, by 2021, the oil sands will
have ramped up production from those
1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.7 million
bpd, with in situ production surpassing
mining in 2015.3

It's doubtful that 5 years could be considered 'long term'.......

[Rwede]

It's even more doubtful that NDP fanbois have the first clue about economic development.

The Deloitte report shows that we need to get our products to market and get 900K+ people into terrific careers, careers that create stability and good lifestyles for Canadians while enhancing our social programs with the huge increase in tax revenues such careers contribute.

The NDP wants $12/hour tourism jobs instead. That keeps people dependent on government handouts, handouts which the NDP wants to borrow for, and when people are dependent on handouts they become dependent on the NDP.

[OREZ]

It's even more doubtful that NDP fanbois have the first clue about economic development.

The Deloitte report shows that we need to get our products to market and get 900K+ people into terrific careers, careers that create stability and good lifestyles for Canadians while enhancing our social programs with the huge increase in tax revenues such careers contribute.

The NDP wants $12/hour tourism jobs instead. That keeps people dependent on government handouts, handouts which the NDP wants to borrow for, and when people are dependent on handouts they become dependent on the NDP.

I agree, we need more solid career jobs, not seasonal, part-time jobs.

Let me ask you this though. It seems from many posts of yours that I've read that you are a pretty out-doorsy kind of guy and you've been fairly outspoken about wind turbines killing bats and birds which I think is a valid concern. Would you oppose a pipeline which would, say, likely interfere with migration routes of caribou, for instance? I'm not referring to any specific pipeline here, or caribou migration in particular, it's just an example. I'm just asking, on principle, would you oppose the construction of a pipeline which could be shown to most likely have detrimental effects on wildlife?

I'm guessing that you're not simply in favor of jobs in the oil industry at any cost but at what point do we need to just say, "no, it's too risky" and who should decide? As someone who seems to have a deep appreciation for nature, are you at all concerned about whether we will have all the checks and balances in place when the time comes to make a decision?

[twobits]

Let me ask you this though. It seems from many posts of yours that I've read that you are a pretty out-doorsy kind of guy and you've been fairly outspoken about wind turbines killing bats and birds which I think is a valid concern. Would you oppose a pipeline which would, say, likely interfere with migration routes of caribou, for instance? I'm not referring to any specific pipeline here, or caribou migration in particular, it's just an example. I'm just asking, on principle, would you oppose the construction of a pipeline which could be shown to most likely have detrimental effects on wildlife?

I know you were asking rwede, but I will chime in here. Pipelines are probably the least detrimental to wildlife of any man made infrastructure. There may be some disruption during a brief construction period, but that can be minimized with forethought and timing. Once in place, they are underground and not physical barriers. Traffic does not follow their path unless they are built beside an already existing roadway. The only evidence of them once construction is complete is the actual right of way cleared of brush or forest. Thru grasslands, you would never even know they were there except for the required marker posts identifying the ROW. The notion that somehow a 60 ft cut line thru a forest is going to disrupt a 1000 mile migration route of an ungulate is ludicrous. They will just view the ROW as just another brief clearing in the land just like the hundreds of others they find along their route. They are just not that smart or sensitive to minor changes that the enviro freaks would like you to believe. The enviro's motive is to create a problem where one does not really exist. They will very quickly latch onto anything "natural resource" related and blame it for the declining population of anything because they have motive and a self serving agenda to do so. They will oppose a wolf cull that is really the problem for the Caribou, yet blame pipelines for their decline.
Have you ever watched Ice Road Truckers? The roads that have been built to these remote FN communities that never had roads to them in all of history are far more disruptive to migration routes cuz they have traffic on them. A constant human presence and traffic. Somehow, these FN's do not see a problem with these roads delivering them gasoline, diesel, groceries, steel and non traditional building materials that do effect wildlife but a pipe buried 6 feet underground through their territory is going to devastate their traditional way of life cuz the animals will be disrupted. Gimme a break please.

[OREZ]

Buried? Well that would be nice.

I certainly don't claim that this is my area of expertise but every pipeline I've ever seen looks like this.

[twobits]

Buried? Well that would be nice.

I certainly don't claim that this is my area of expertise but every pipeline I've ever seen looks like this.

alaska-oil-pipeline_3339.jpg

No, you are not an expert. Have you ever even seen 1 ft of the current Kinder Morgan pipeline that runs from Alberta to Vancouver? You have probably driven over it a thousand times and don't even know it. Above ground is extremely rare.
http://www.pipeline101.com/why-do-we-ne ... -pipelines

"Most crude oil pipelines are underground, except for pump stations and valves. Many people are familiar with the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). It is the most photographed pipeline because significant portions of the system are above ground, which is unlike most pipelines."

[twobits]

*removed*

[OREZ]

"Most crude oil pipelines are underground, except for pump stations and valves. Many people are familiar with the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). It is the most photographed pipeline because significant portions of the system are above ground, which is unlike most pipelines."

Glad to know it.

I never once said that I was against it. In fact, I have all along been leaning toward supporting this one but have some questions. I thought that was allowed. My mistake. As I said, it's not my area of expertise but thank you for your input. However, your sales-pitch and communication skills really need some polish. That is, unless it's your intention to turn people who are on the fence against this proposal.

As you pointed out earlier, I wasn't talking to you, I was asking Rwede a couple questions which he doesn't seem to want to answer. Fair enough, I'm able to just let things go. You should try it. Really.

[hobbyguy]

Actually GF, CERI is much more qualified to do economic analysis on energy, and especially oil/bitumen related topics than a bunch of bean counters at Deloittte (who simply produced what their client asked for - a political document).

The current board of CERI includes:

- a former president of the natural gas association
- an executive VP of CAPP
- a VP from Cenovus
- an assistant deputy minister from the Alberta Department of Energy
- the director of policy for natural resource Canada
- the VP of research for the University of Calgary

Hmmm... do I believe those guys, or a bunch of bought and paid for beancounters?

[twobits]

*removed*

[Deean]

I just read about a train derailment that dumped chemical treated coal into the Thompson River. My guess would be that the BC Government gets royalties for the coal mined in BC and shipped to China. Its good for our economy, I am told. Think of the jobs this may create! Somebody has to clean up the mess, water has to be continually tested, fish have to be monitored, etc. No...I am not crazy, just sarcastic!!