New Opinion Poll

[Retrosnap]

New poll shows B.C. Liberals and NDP deadlocked at 37 per cent

Poll was taken before the budget.
http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/new-poll-show-liberals-and-ndp-deadlocked

Horgan is going to alienate either the core union vote or the green wing once his "Say Anything" persona catches up to him on the campaign trail. Maybe, finally, the NDP will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

[GordonH]

I've said it many times on here, any poll beside the ballot box is just wild stab in the dark. Reason is those phoned could say whatever they want, just to throw the numbers out of whack.

Just have to look at previous elections compared to polls.

[Retrosnap]

^^^

I don't disagree. We only have to look at Adrian Dix to see that things can be quite different once the ballots are counted.

If we look at him, we can trace his downfall to his about face on KM.

Hilary was leading in the final weekend, until the FBI said they found more emails to investigate.

I think the only surprise that people didn't see coming was the NDP in Alberta. My family in Alberta assures me that this is a one time event. The downturn in Alberta's economy might not be their fault, but the majority of Albertans don't see it that way. There's many undecideds in BC who may also see things the same way.

Anyway, here's how I think Horgan will blow it:
- announce a few years of "modest" deficits to fund his campaign promises

-declare his support for a pipeline and/or an LNG project, angering the green wing

-declare that a $10 day care will have its own ministry and incumbent bureaucracy, angering the right leaning undecideds...Or...

-declare that the private sector will be allowed to build and operate child care centre, and angering the left leaning undecideds

- be evasive about tax increases until a leaked internal memo outlines how they really plan to fund their campaign promises

[Urbane]

Any poll showing the NDP and Liberals tied at this point has to be good news for the Liberals. For one thing the NDP builds up huge majorities on Vancouver Island and that skews the overall results. Furthermore, just remember what happened in 2013. The final Angus Reid poll had the NDP at 45% and the Liberals at 36%. The actual election results had the Liberals at 44.4% and the NDP at 39.5%.