The Election Stats and Analysis

[GordonH]

^^^ I was asking about the 5 you previous posted

Okay, bucko.... here they are:

6,715 in Kelowna Mission.
6,189 in Kelowna Lake country.
5,361 in Kamloops - South Thompson.
5,214 in Kelowna West.

Those all look like decent wins, wonder if someone looked further back.

[rustled]

All of this makes we wonder again why anyone would want to run for public office. I sure wouldn't.

Do not think for a second that all these people that run for public office are just doing it for public good. Whether it is Provincial or Federal positions the payoff after 2 terms (6 years) is a very healthy pension........FOR LIFE. A thick skin is required and the ability to ignore............"just keep telling yourself.......6 years, 6 years, I can do it". I have known many people in all levels of politics and the minority have worked hard (????) in their positions to improve their constituents lives. Most tow the party line and pray for their second term. Once that is achieved they can sit back and relax. You will have the "lifer" politicians and then the ones that have made up excuses to pack it in as soon as 2-terms are up.

If this minority government holds up my wish is that it will get rid of a handful of these Liberals that have outgrown their usefulness and have grown too accustomed to arrogance. It seems they have to be dragged away from the public trough.

I think the flip side of this is true as well, though. Really decent people who genuinely want to make a difference get beaten up by a fickle, nasty public with completely unrealistic expectations, and lose their enthusiasm after a couple of terms, leaving a higher ratio of those who truly enjoy the trough to enjoy the trough.

Why do we, as a group, persist in making an already stressful job far more stressful with vile accusations and personal attacks?

Why have we made this a job that requires such thick skin?

If we feel we have the right to do this to our public servants, it should be no surprise we get what we get.

[Glacier]

Those all look like decent wins, wonder if someone looked further back.

About 5,000 in each riding in 2009. Remember Matt Reed and Tish what's-her-name?

[Urban Cowboy]

hate to sully your beautiful thread here glacier, but, just to address the fact that we are waiting still for the numbers to better complete this picture...

Seems to me the real winners were the Green party. Good for him, it looks like he siphoned enough NDP votes to deny them a majority.

i would think that people that are not interpreting, or can not interpret the simplest plus/minus of the numbers, might be better not presenting analysis.

re: the example provided, if the bclibs lost, ndp gained, and the greens gained, then concluding that somehow the 'greens siphoned' votes from the ndp is less than baseless (given the resolution of current data) it is simply logically incorrect.

I really don't care how you interpret the data, nor will I ever, however just because I didn't look at it the same way as you, hardly gives you justification to be insulting.

As far as I'm concerned the two new seats won by the Green party, came at the expense of the NDP, given that they were the incumbents.

In that respect, the Greens siphoned votes from the NDP. I know they took votes from both the NDP and the Liberals, but they hurt the NDP the most by taking those two ridings away. No doubt they also helped them win some others.

Had the NDP won those two seats the outcome of the election would have been a tie.

[A_Britishcolumbian]

If you were insulted please forgive me, it was certainly not my intent.
You have made it clear now that the context of your 'siphon' position is with respect to two specific ridings.

We can see in the big picture that what appears to be a significant increase in turnout favoured the greens, and likely the ndp.

With more detailed data i will guess that we will see more bcliberal supporters have died in the last 4 years than greens or ndp, and the younger replacement voters are more proportionately green than the old folks before them.

Many fewer may have switched lib for ndp or green than is currently being suggested.

[maryjane48]

ndp can still flip 2 seats where as clark can really only flip one . the greens wont work with clark

[Urban Cowboy]

More statements presented as fact, when in reality everything is uncertain until such time as everything is counted, and verified.

Why exactly is it, that you guys can't wait for the final results, like everyone else?

I would have thought last election, should have taught you a valuable lesson, in not counting your chickens before they hatch.

Guess not.

BH was already serving the crow, but we may yet get confirmation that he has to eat it himself. The odds certainly point in that direction.

[Queen K]

Who is you "guys"?

Rwede called it a Liberal win before leaving to whereever he went. He didn't wait.
I've been using these threads like a pub hang out to kill time to see who really won.

[maryjane48]

facts are some the rightwingers on here seem to see taking the low road as some how being cool . forget whats good for bc as long as corrupt clark wins .


even if we take site c out of the mix we are stil left with a banana republic type gang who act like they are spys . the only difference between trumps base and clarks base is a border .

[Urban Cowboy]

Who is you "guys"?

Rwede called it a Liberal win before leaving to whereever he went. He didn't wait.
I've been using these threads like a pub hang out to kill time to see who really won.

Well my definition of "you guys" would be the NDP tooters like lasnomadas who declared an NDP win, more than a week before the election, and wasn't the only one in that camp to view it as a done deal.

I didn't see what Rwede said or when, but I know myself, Urbane, and some others, have been waiting for final results, not taking anything for granted, though in fairness since the voting is now over, we could say the Liberals won. It would certainly be more accurate than doing so before the voting.

If Rwede said that recently, then he would be right, as I'm fairly certain 43 beats 41, so what remains to be seen really, is whether the Liberals can squeak out another seat after absentee ballots are counted.

[Urbane]

ndp can still flip 2 seats where as clark can really only flip one . the greens wont work with clark

Do you know all of the absentee vote totals already? No, because they haven't been counted. There have been two re-counts granted so far. One is for a seat won narrowly (9 votes) by the NDP and the other is for a seat won by Liberal Sam Sullivan. That margin was a few hundred votes but there was an issue with one total being a few votes off so Elections BC agreed to the recount. After the absentee ballots are counted, Elections BC will entertain requests for recounts again at that point. So what you say about the NDP being able to flip two seats and Clark only one seat is pure speculation and not based on fact.

[Glacier]

The reason Sam Sullivan's riding is being contested is that his rival was a trans, and the left and the media (but I repeat myself) was salivating at the mouth when she/he was in the lead, and so they will pull out all the stops to try and overturn the result. It's not even close to 2nd closest race, and not even closest to the closest race where the NDP lost. Either that or they hate handicapped Liberals that much, which I guess makes sense when you consider the fact that 99% of NDPers are handicapped to one degree or another.

In Courtenay-Comox the NDP candidate won by 9 votes
In Maple Ridge-Mission the NDP candidate won by 120 votes
In Coquitlam-Burke Mountain the Liberal candidate won by 170 votes
In Richmond-Queensborough the Liberal candidate won by 263 votes
In Vancouver-False Creek the Liberal candidate (Sam Sullivan) won by 560 votes

[Glacier]

Penticton saw the greatest increase in the margin of victory of any riding in BC. The difference between the Liberals and the NDP increased by 5,262 votes. Interestingly enough, Oak Bay - Gordon Head was 2nd place where the Greens increased their vote total over the NDP by 4,876 votes over their nearest rival (which in 2017 was the Liberals and in 2013 was the NDP).

[Mr_Mrs_Wolf]

“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power tends to corrupt absolutely.” ~ Lord Acton

The Liberal party clearly lost the election. Despite their rhetoric of a relatively strong economy, and the
usual fear campaign of a vote for the NDP is a vote for economic ruin, the Liberal vote
share dropped from 44.1% in 2013 to 40.9% in 2017. The loss in the Lower Mainland
was more pronounced. The NDP support held at close to 40% (higher in the Lower
Mainland), while the Green party support rose from 8.2% in 2013 to 16.7%.

All governments eventually lose touch with the electorate, and are replaced with new
people with new ideas. The recent election provides an opportunity for the NDP, supported by the Green
members, to effect some fundamental reforms in the conduct of public administration in
this province. It is an opportunity demonstrate that bringing forward good public policy
can be more than an election promise.

The Green Party currently holds the balance of power. Even if the NDP loses the CourtenyComox
riding to the Liberals, the support of the three Green members will be important
in steering the Liberal government toward “good public policy” as defined by the
Greens. Regardless who you voted for it is a grand new day in BC folks!

[Mr_Mrs_Wolf]

The numbers don't lie, the Greens hurt the Clark Liberals in this election. Hurt, meaning they went from from 44.1% in 2013 to 40.9% in 2017.The NDP support held at close to 40% (higher in the Lower Mainland), while the Green party support rose from 8.2% in 2013 to 16.7%.
I feel there could not have been a better result in this election. BC voted for a new direction and Christy is going to have to lead the province down that road. A road that politically is not at all in her political lexicon. Its almost a karamesque :)

hate to sully your beautiful thread here glacier, but, just to address the fact that we are waiting still for the numbers to better complete this picture...

i would think that people that are not interpreting, or can not interpret the simplest plus/minus of the numbers, might be better not presenting analysis.

re: the example provided, if the bclibs lost, ndp gained, and the greens gained, then concluding that somehow the 'greens siphoned' votes from the ndp is less than baseless (given the resolution of current data) it is simply logically incorrect.

I really don't care how you interpret the data, nor will I ever, however just because I didn't look at it the same way as you, hardly gives you justification to be insulting.

As far as I'm concerned the two new seats won by the Green party, came at the expense of the NDP, given that they were the incumbents.

In that respect, the Greens siphoned votes from the NDP. I know they took votes from both the NDP and the Liberals, but they hurt the NDP the most by taking those two ridings away. No doubt they also helped them win some others.

Had the NDP won those two seats the outcome of the election would have been a tie.