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Guaranteed income

Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Glacier » Nov 8th, 2017, 2:12 pm

The Green Barbarian wrote:why is it that leftist posters are always so negative about the future?

Leftists are ignorant about history. That's why they love Chavez, Guevara, and Castro. They think "this time will be different. Yes, every single socialist dictator was caused evil in the past, but that was not real socialism. If I were in charge, it would be utopia."

Leftists (#notall) think that history doesn't repeat itself. For the past million years, more technology has meant good things for those at the bottom. More people and more and better paying jobs develop. It has always been the case, but for some reason this time will be different. There's no logic in their thinking. Unemployment will not go to 50%. You have to be some pessimist to think that; it runs counter all of history and science and reason.

We have a history of clean, green hydro electricity in BC, and they want Site C shut down. Even though we are a net importer of electricity and electric cars are becoming a reality, they think that unproven geothermal, wind, and solar will make up the difference. They even see what happened in Ontario with the huge subsidies made to wind and solar, and how it has driven up electricity rates, and yet, they think we are different in BC.

No, we are not different. If you think that doing the same thing with a different result makes sense, you are insane.

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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Verum » Nov 8th, 2017, 2:26 pm


An interesting article and certainly it is possible that we will find smart machines end up delivering far less than promised, but I am not in a habit of betting against technological progress and this time the computers are going to be going after the very things that separate us from ordinary machines, our brains. They will eventually be better at the tasks that the vast majority of people do for a living and possibly even smarter than even the smartest humans. The only way forward I can envisage in which computers do not eventually exceed human intelligence significantly in essentially every field is if we stop developing them or kill ourselves off, neither of which appeals to me.

Personally, I am very happy to embrace the technological change, in fact not only do I do so, but I am personally pushing it forward, but I have some reasonable fears as to how it will leave those who naively believe that their jobs will be safe.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Omnitheo » Nov 8th, 2017, 4:09 pm

Glacier, if it’s leftists that don’t think history will repeat itself, then why are republicans and conservatives always so dead set on returning to the failed tax plans that repeatedly lead to recessions or depressions?

You guys make the most rediculous generalizations. I would challenge each and everyone on this forum to a history trivia. Studying history has been my life for years. But sure whatever, I’m an ignorant leftist. Whatever you say.

We simply presented facts about just how big of a shift towards automation is coming in the next few years. You can choose to ignore that if you’d like, but chances are you’ll be retired, if you aren’t already so it won’t matter. One day though when you go for your morning coffee, grab some lunch. Do some grocery shopping and get your prescriptions filled, you’ll realize that you went your entire day without having had to interact with a single person for any of that.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Glacier » Nov 8th, 2017, 10:45 pm

Omni, guess what, automation started 100 years ago! It has been happening throughout our life times and increasing over time. No more hand washing of clothes, dishes, and cars. It will only increase in the future, but there has been no trend whatsoever toward high unemployment. Now, call me skeptical, but if some automation does not increase unemployment, why would lots more automation do so? It makes no sense and there is no empirical evidence to support it.

I think that the reason people assume the economy is going to screwed in the future with automation is that they think books and the like will cease to exist. I would bet money that new technologies and old technologies like books will continue to be produced. That's the great thing about automation, it allows people to pursue other things and passions, and make money at it.

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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Verum » Nov 8th, 2017, 11:39 pm

Glacier wrote:Omni, guess what, automation started 100 years ago! It has been happening throughout our life times and increasing over time. No more hand washing of clothes, dishes, and cars. It will only increase in the future, but there has been no trend whatsoever toward high unemployment. Now, call me skeptical, but if some automation does not increase unemployment, why would lots more automation do so? It makes no sense and there is no empirical evidence to support it.

I think that the reason people assume the economy is going to screwed in the future with automation is that they think books and the like will cease to exist. I would bet money that new technologies and old technologies like books will continue to be produced. That's the great thing about automation, it allows people to pursue other things and passions, and make money at it.

What do you do when computers are smarter in every practical way than humans, when they can produce art better than we can, can make business decisions better than we can, are better plumbers, welders, fallers, farmers, teachers, cops, drivers, etc.? What do you do when human work is inferior to the work of machines? You seem to think that this will never happen, but it is already starting and the pace of advancement is just increasing. You fail to see that things are different now, because while history may repeat itself, that doesn't mean that it doesn't change, nor that there is nothing new under the Sun. Machines replaced muscle, but muscle without brain is hugely inferior to humans, so we had a place as workers. Soon the machines will have the brains and where does that leave us?

Mass automation really only started during the Industrial Revolution, but the need for brains, even weak ones, meant that there was work, even for relatively stupid people. As time has gone on, we have needed to increase the amount of education people receive to meet the growing demands of the workforce. Almost nobody today can get job without being able to read and write and perform basic arithmetic, or have some more significant skill. In the past, it was relatively easy. When my Grandparents went to University, they were privileged and stood out from the crowd, head and shoulders above the masses. As a result, they did well for themselves. When my parents went, a University degree was more common, but still a significant advantage and so they benefited and had access to jobs for which I would have needed a PhD. When I went to University, so did most of the people from my class in school. It was no longer a significant advantage but a simple necessity to be employable in my preferred career. Things have gotten increasingly difficult for people who are of modest intelligence and it is getting worse. Add into the mix the fact that computers will basically be able to handle most repetitive tasks within the next few decades and the jobs that those of modest intelligence are currently doing quite well at, especially those who are well paid because they have a mix of a brain and a somewhat physically capable body, will be mopped up by machines and automation. Even Jordan Peterson agrees about intelligence and jobs (see at 1:29) and you'll find from his list that the jobs we mostly talk about automating are those at the lower end of the IQ requirements, which is something he mentions briefly too.

It's also good to hear Peterson talking about psychology, his area of expertise for once, since so many people trot him and his opinion out on things he is certainly not an expert.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Woodenhead » Nov 9th, 2017, 4:07 am

History doesn't repeat itself.

Well, sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't. Depends on granularity and wherever whoever utters the phrase sets the goalposts.

The only thing that always repeats itself is an anecdote.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Sparki55 » Nov 9th, 2017, 6:54 am

Verum wrote:are better plumbers, welders, fallers, farmers, teachers, cops, drivers, etc.? What do you do when human work is inferior to the work of machines? You seem to think that this will never happen, but it is already starting and the pace of advancement is just increasing.


These guys in the link below have spent hundreds of millions trying to make great robots. What they have accomplished are cool little military toys that cost over $500,000 each, are always needing repair and can't do more than a few tasks.

https://www.bostondynamics.com

Google didn't see a future in robotics and sold this company to Japan. The hope is they can make these more cost effective.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/06/09/google-sells-robot-dog-company-boston-dynamics-softbank/

I've veen employed in technology and taken enough courses in robotics to understand that to create a machine which could do the job of a tradesman (plumber), the robot would be so complex and complicated that it would cost hundreds of thousands to buy and there would be no one capable of repairing it when it broke, it would need to be sent back to the factory.

Technology will keep advancing, new algorithms will take over boring office jobs just like the last wave of technology took away boring factory jobs. Theres not need for mass panic, 47% of jobs, or whatever the number you guys keep touting, will not dissapear by 2025. We wouldn't even have production plants capable of making that many machines by then.

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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Poindexter » Nov 9th, 2017, 8:19 am

One way technology has impacted the number of jobs is through increased efficency. When I joined a large company out of University we had a clerk for every few managers. That also included a large department dedicated to word processing. Managers would dictate or write stuff up long hand and off it went for someone to proof read (which I could still use), type out, make copies and bind together and the next day it was on your desk. We also had managers for every district in every dicipline imaginable. Within a decade we were lucky to have 1 clerk for every 10 managers, word processing is now done by the manager themselves and we lost approximately half the number of managers. All this downsizing of full time jobs that came with benefits, paid vacation and pensions was made possible by the PC and Windows. We also weren't taking our work home with us yet because cell phones werent smart and your laptop had to use dial up and working wirelessly was even slower if even possible. Within 20 years the number of people employed by this company went from thousands in Kelowna down to hundreds. I still meet ex employees who have managed to eek out a living in Kelowna but they've never come close to the same pay and benefits. Things have changed for workers over the years and not for the better. I'm glad I'm on my way into retirement because if I were just starting out I would find the realities of current and future labour markets very discouraging.

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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Verum » Nov 9th, 2017, 8:28 am

Sparki55 wrote:
Verum wrote:are better plumbers, welders, fallers, farmers, teachers, cops, drivers, etc.? What do you do when human work is inferior to the work of machines? You seem to think that this will never happen, but it is already starting and the pace of advancement is just increasing.


These guys in the link below have spent hundreds of millions trying to make great robots. What they have accomplished are cool little military toys that cost over $500,000 each, are always needing repair and can't do more than a few tasks.

https://www.bostondynamics.com

Google didn't see a future in robotics and sold this company to Japan. The hope is they can make these more cost effective.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/06/09/google-sells-robot-dog-company-boston-dynamics-softbank/

I've veen employed in technology and taken enough courses in robotics to understand that to create a machine which could do the job of a tradesman (plumber), the robot would be so complex and complicated that it would cost hundreds of thousands to buy and there would be no one capable of repairing it when it broke, it would need to be sent back to the factory.

Technology will keep advancing, new algorithms will take over boring office jobs just like the last wave of technology took away boring factory jobs. Theres not need for mass panic, 47% of jobs, or whatever the number you guys keep touting, will not dissapear by 2025. We wouldn't even have production plants capable of making that many machines by then.

Sorry but my post certainly doesn't suggest that we will have anything like that kind of change by 2025, but some of us have 30+ years of employment left and I have kids too, so I am looking to 2050+ where I see far more significant changes and humans becoming more and more obsolete by then. Google is smart because they realise that the smart money is in the software, something they are very good at, and not so much in the hardware. The robots, like Teslas, etc. will be valuable, but it is the software that they run which will be the really valuable part and unlike physical machines, software can be sold without the need for massive factories and the other problems Tesla face.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby The Green Barbarian » Nov 9th, 2017, 8:49 am

Glacier wrote:Leftists are ignorant about history. That's why they love Chavez, Guevara, and Castro. They think "this time will be different. Yes, every single socialist dictator was caused evil in the past, but that was not real socialism. If I were in charge, it would be utopia."
.


Excellent points. I think that they are ignorant period, but definitely history is one of the biggest areas. No question.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby JLives » Nov 9th, 2017, 8:59 am

Our technology is in it's infancy. We have barely scratched the surface of it's potential. To think we have an inkling of an understanding that it won't make human labour obsolete by comparing it to assembly lines from 100 years ago is laughable. We need to rethink the social contract.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Old Techie » Nov 9th, 2017, 9:33 am

Woodenhead wrote:History doesn't repeat itself.


[icon_lol2.gif] Evidently you haven't wandered into any of the political threads.
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Woodenhead » Nov 9th, 2017, 3:58 pm

Old Techie wrote: [icon_lol2.gif] Evidently you haven't wandered into any of the political threads.


:spitcoffee: :130:
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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby richardclank » Nov 10th, 2017, 3:59 pm

khutchi wrote:
twobits wrote: https://www.castanet.net/news/BC/210341 ... -all-in-BC

I cannot believe the brain dead NDP are still considering this sort of failed social experiment! I mean seriously....why get a job,why get an education if the gov't pays you to stay at home with enhanced welfare?


Because my desire for purpose/meaning, to better myself and to leave this world a better place than I came into it exceeds my desire to stay home and watch netflix all day. You mean to tell me the only reason you "contribute" to the world is $$?


If you guys do any research whatsoever into the reasons why people work, money isn't at the top of the list. Khutchi is exactly right that the majority of people work to find fulfillment in life and help society. A guaranteed income won't destroy the innate desire in humans to want to meaningfully contribute to society.

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Re: Guaranteed income

Postby Queen K » Nov 10th, 2017, 4:35 pm

You're right Richard, some of us could never chow down on chips while surfing Netflix all day.

I could stand it for about ....... a month. Then I'd be looking for something to do more meaningful.
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