Did the Conservatives pick a Dud?

[Glacier]

Do they though? I don't hear the amount of popular support Harper had and they're really the only kind of opposition that the liberals have. Their base of habit voters is pretty large, and really only has to be more than 35% of voters to have a good chance of a win. Which traditionally they have so they do have a pretty reasonable shot. On the other side though the NDP voters are likely pretty aware they're backing a losing party and since a lot of the more NDP/Lib voters have for a long time now only voted strategically they'll probably go with the liberals purely to vote against the conservatives.

The conservatives winning a federal election as usual will come down to how the NDP and the Liberals end up splitting the liberal spectrum voters.

PS Hillary lost because the DNC blatantly and ruthlessly burned Bernie who similar to Trump was going into it with a huge amount of public support, plus all the political baggage she came with. That election was lost before it even started.

There's no such thing as a party that relies on one side of the political spectrum. Vote splitting is a myth. The Conservatives won because they gained a lot of votes, not just from the Liberals, but also at the expense of the NDP, because, as the link describes, being well into NDP left territory does not guarantee that you'd rather vote Liberal than Conservative.

P.S. the NDP ran to the right of the Liberals last time hoping that it would be a winning strategy, but it didn't work because those who were abandoning Harper weren't interested in who was most similar to the conservatives. They just wanted the guy gone.

[hobbyguy]

Glacier - it is tough to read. Harper and crew did not lose any support from one election to the next. The Conservative vote total was almost identical. What did happen was that NDP support slipped, by 1 million votes, and 2.8 million more people came out to vote. Generally speaking higher turnouts work against conservative parties in most countries.

[Glacier]

Glacier - it is tough to read. Harper and crew did not lose any support from one election to the next. The Conservative vote total was almost identical. What did happen was that NDP support slipped, by 1 million votes, and 2.8 million more people came out to vote. Generally speaking higher turnouts work against conservative parties in most countries.

Conservative support was way down last time. Way down.

Higher turnout helped Trump win Florida and Michigan. Also look at Alberta. The NDP won despite highest turnout in 20 years. Same goes for BC. But you're right, in general, those who don't normally vote, are leftists most often.

[Ka-El]

But you're right, in general, those who don't normally vote, are leftists most often.

It is going to be interesting to see what kind of blowback there is against the Trump effect. Hopefully, there has been a real awakening that will translate from semi-effective protest to getting out and voting in real numbers that matter.

[hobbyguy]

Glacier - it is tough to read. Harper and crew did not lose any support from one election to the next. The Conservative vote total was almost identical. What did happen was that NDP support slipped, by 1 million votes, and 2.8 million more people came out to vote. Generally speaking higher turnouts work against conservative parties in most countries.

Conservative support was way down last time. Way down.

Higher turnout helped Trump win Florida and Michigan. Also look at Alberta. The NDP won despite highest turnout in 20 years. Same goes for BC. But you're right, in general, those who don't normally vote, are leftists most often.

Doing the math based on 2011 turnout:

2011 Conservatives: 39.62% of the p vote
2016 Conservatives: 38.13% of the p vote

In general, what happens in higher turnout elections is that younger people turn out in large numbers. Younger people tend to vote left of center to left.

The other thing that can happen, depending on the circumstances, is that folks of all ages who often don't vote come out to vote. Certainly in terms of the Brexit there was high turnout among unskilled and semi skilled workers who often feel disenfranchised by all parties. There is a relationship between education and left leaning views as universities tend to be very "politically correct" and generally left leaning in outlook - which rubs off.

[Ka-El]

There is a relationship between education and left leaning views as universities tend to be very "politically correct" and generally left leaning in outlook - which rubs off.

It is also a side effect of being exposed to many different ideas while learning how to suspend judgment and critically reviewing evidence from research to form opinion as opposed to regurgitated erroneous rhetoric. Conservatives tend to shun research.

[rustled]

Not sure if "shun" is accurate. Is it possible people who have been around longer have a more cautious approach to responding too quickly to initial research? I'm thinking of the dreadful impact of the too-quick reactions to research into the vaccination/autism connection, and cholesterol. Both of which we've experienced in my lifetime.

I was more left-thinking as a teen than I am now. It's easier to be certain in your youth.

This trend to ever-younger leaders is interesting.

Scheer's still in his 30s. Makes me feel very old.

[Merry]

learning how to suspend judgment and critically reviewing evidence from research to form opinion as opposed to regurgitated erroneous rhetoric.

Far too many people on both sides of the partisan divide are often guilty of regurgitating erroneous rhetoric. One has only to read through these forums to see that.

[Ka-El]

Not sure if "shun" is accurate. Is it possible people who have been around longer have a more cautious approach to responding too quickly to initial research? I'm thinking of the dreadful impact of the too-quick reactions to research into the vaccination/autism connection, and cholesterol.

I’m thinking more of my frustration with the conservative mantra of “if it’s broke, don’t fix it”, and their inclination to not only keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again, but to stubbornly refuse to look any other options – no matter what the evidence shows. I have seen that many times in my lifetime.

I was more left-thinking as a teen than I am now. It's easier to be certain in your youth.

Indeed. I was so far right in my early twenties I would have made the Barbarian look like a moderate. I’ll admit university swung me over to the left side for a while, but practical requirements brought me back to the center where I can look to both sides. I can certainly appreciate your comment about “being certain”. Sadly, for some people, that doesn’t change with age.

This trend to ever-younger leaders is interesting.

People no longer trust the "old guard", and for damn good reason.

[Glacier]

Doing the math based on 2011 turnout:

2011 Conservatives: 39.62% of the p vote
2016 Conservatives: 38.13% of the p vote

Ah, more fake news. Donald Trump must have hacked your account. The fact is, the polls had the conservatives at 30% going into the election. You're telling me that the polls were that far off, and the Cons actually got 38%? I distinctly remember saying at the time, that if the end result is a three way race, the Cons will get 3rd. Google the results. The polls were not off.

As for education and politics, check out Steven Pinker's work on that. Basically, it's far more complex than that. If you go get a degree in gender studies or psychology, you end up (on average) left-wing, but if you get an engineering or science degree you're more likely to be more rightwing than the average uneducated person. Those without degrees tend to be rightwing in terms of being tough on crime, but also more leftwing in terms of free trade and unions.

That's why the "get tough on crime" campaign is used by the Cons. It's also why the "tax the rich" campaign is used by the Liberals to try and win over these same demographic of voters. Neither a good thing, but they are good strategies in politics.

[Glacier]

This trend to ever-younger leaders is interesting.

Scheer's still in his 30s. Makes me feel very old.

I made a graph somewhere where I graphed the age of the PM from 1867 until now, wouldn't you know it. The PM keeps getting younger as the population keeps getting older!

[Ka-El]

That's why the "get tough on crime" campaign is used by the Cons. It's also why the "tax the rich" campaign is used by the Liberals to try and win over these same demographic of voters. Neither a good thing, but they are good strategies in politics.

And that is the real sad thing - both ignoring the evidence from research on both of those issues and then appealing to those in their base that will lap it up. It seems it doesn't matter who gets elected. It is still always the same ol', same ol'.

[hobbyguy]

Doing the math based on 2011 turnout:

2011 Conservatives: 39.62% of the p vote
2016 Conservatives: 38.13% of the p vote

Ah, more fake news. Donald Trump must have hacked your account. The fact is, the polls had the conservatives at 30% going into the election. You're telling me that the polls were that far off, and the Cons actually got 38%? I distinctly remember saying at the time, that if the end result is a three way race, the Cons will get 3rd. Google the results. The polls were not off.

As for education and politics, check out Steven Pinker's work on that. Basically, it's far more complex than that. If you go get a degree in gender studies or psychology, you end up (on average) left-wing, but if you get an engineering or science degree you're more likely to be more rightwing than the average uneducated person. Those without degrees tend to be rightwing in terms of being tough on crime, but also more leftwing in terms of free trade and unions.

That's why the "get tough on crime" campaign is used by the Cons. It's also why the "tax the rich" campaign is used by the Liberals to try and win over these same demographic of voters. Neither a good thing, but they are good strategies in politics.

I actually looked at the published vote numbers. The Conservatives did drop 212,000 votes but still garnered 5.6 million. Twas the NDP that actually got clobbered losing 1 million votes, dropping from 4.4 to 3.4 million votes....

[Glacier]

Well the truth is, the Cons got under 32% of the vote. No one has ever won with less than 37% of the vote. The Conservatives lost votes even though the population had grown substantially since the previous election. Yup, the NDP suffered even more, but the Liberals would have easily won a majority if the NDP hadn't lost votes.

[Merry]

The Cons definitely lost a lot of votes because of their perceived arrogance under an increasingly arrogant leader. People liked the fact the Cons were fiscally responsible, but didn't like the fact that they appeared to be completely deaf to the opinions of all who disagreed with them. It was "their way or the highway" and to heck with the consequences. A position which, regrettably, the Trudeau Liberals seem to be hell bent on repeating.

People didn't dislike Harper because he was a strong leader; people WANT a strong leader and originally saw that as being Harper's strength. What they disliked was his tendency to be a one man show. It IS possible to be a strong leader, while still working cooperatively with others, and being willing to listen to their ideas. And that's the sort of PM Canadians want. The sort of PM they expected Trudeau to be, although now they see he's turning out to be more like Harper with every passing day.

While Scheer may benefit a little from Trudeau's tendency to be arrogant, I doubt it will be enough for him to win the election. Because he doesn't come across as being a strong leader. He seems to be more of a follower, who is being led around by the nose by the Party brass. And Canadians won't vote for that.

The Cons are going to have to find themselves a leader who is capable of demonstrating both strength and compassion at the same time, and who is willing and able to lead a team of similar minded people, as opposed to being some sort of control freak. Once they find such a person, they'll beat the Trudeau Liberals hands down.