The 2011 - 12 Federal Budget

[The Green Barbarian]

I think you hit the nail on the head as far as the lack of unity in the left. Bottom line is that the Federal Liberal need a real leader. A series of weak leaders have led them to where they are today. The last strong leader they had was of course Chrétien, but naturally they had to flush him and things have gone progressively downhill from there.

I get the sense that the Liberals recognize that Iggy is more or less a waste of time as well. Sadly it seems there is the Parliamentary tradition of getting rid of your leader through a failed election effort instead of simply doing things the easy way. I have no doubt that another election with the Federal Liberals making no gains will see the ouster of Iggy and if we are really lucky the NDP will send Layton packing as well.

I think the problem the Federal Libs and the New Dumbs will have if they turf their leaders is who do they find to replace them? Bob Rae is a walking unelectable disaster and while Layton is probably one of the worst leaders I've ever seen I don't know who in the NDP currently would be any better, that party is a complete disgrace. The best chance the NDP had was under Alexa McDonough, but I had to laugh and shake my head when she was punted under the reasoning that "she had grown too cosy with corporate Canada and moved the NDP too far to the center" - yes how dare she try and make the NDP even somewhat palatable to the mainstream Canadian voter...sigh...those guys will never learn.

[NAB]

You should be huffing and puffing too about the Harper Government lying to Canadians about the real cost of their tough on crime agenda.

Now, the parliamentary budget officer is estimating that the real costs of the sole-sourced contract for the F35s will soar to $29 billion (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2 ... erjet.html) .

Let’s talk about the economy, our tax dollars and our increasing debt

Ya, I just caught that watching the jet cost issue hit question period c2c. I don't know how biased or credible this parliamentary budget officer is or how he justifies his numbers yet, but to me that could be of far greater impact than all the petty "trust" stuff Iggy has been huffing and puffing about, or even your interest in the tough on crime agenda.

Like we are talking about something like 13 BILLION more than the Conservatives have been claiming those jets were going to cost us over whatever period of time depending on how credible and unbiased this guy is. And the opposition gets some really good specific and huge financial ammo now if that is true, ....and tying it to the health care funding situation we face may well deliver a much louder campaign bang than all the prattle about misleading the house or worrying about the over blown get tough on crime stuff - which the IggyLiberals really haven't sunk their teeth into in any meaningful way anyway.

Anyway, the fact remains that the projected time frame for the next federal election has moved from a year or so to possibly 2 or 3 months if the Conservatives cannot come up with some pretty solid and believable stuff within the next couple of weeks. As much as I am a voter for the federal Conservatives, like most other people I don't like being deceived if it is proven so.

Nab

[The Green Barbarian]

NAB - you've been around awhile so you'll remember this one - remember what the CF-18 did to the Mulroney Conservatives? It would be ironic if the F-35 was Harper's Waterloo.

[NAB]

NAB - you've been around awhile so you'll remember this one - remember what the CF-18 did to the Mulroney Conservatives? It would be ironic if the F-35 was Harper's Waterloo.

Ya, but interestingly I don't think that CF-18 thing was really the Mulroney Government's waterloo. And of course we cannot discount the Liberal Helicopter thingy of the Liberals, but even that I don't think that specifically was what created their waterloo either.

No matter what some may think, I believe our armed forces (and our arctic and global sovereignty) were badly neglected for far too long. And I further believe the majority of Canadians feel that way too. Whatever the cost, we have a lot of Liberal neglect in those areas to catch up from. And God help us if Canadians turn that upside down now by giving the Liberals another kick at the cat. That said, I do not dispute that the Liberals did many good things for Canada in the past (social issues), but at substantial cost. Well, those things are bought, paid for, and solidly in place, and I think it is very wrong of them to now suggest that the things they horribly neglected cannot be now brought forward to properly round out our country for the 21st century.

Edit to add: It has just been reported the Liberals have promised to scrap the F-35 deal if elected. They may well be on a roll now :-( Haven't we been in a similar position before, something to do with a helicopter deal? What did that end up costing us, for nothing?

Nab

[The Green Barbarian]

the CF-18 contract debacle (giving the contract to Bombardier instead of Bristol in Winnipeg) definitely was a key factor in handing the Western vote to the Reform party, which up to that point was just a fringe party and a bit of a joke. But Kim Campbell definitely played a role as well in sinking the party.

[NAB]

I think it is a big mistake to compare the politics, issues, era, and situations that ended with the fall of the Mulroney Conservatives (which I am delighted to acknowledge doing my very best to help happen ), with the politics, era, issues, and situations we have faced since. The main carryover in my mind was, and still is, things like NAFTA and Softwood Lumber disputes, and of course consumption taxes - or actually taxes of all types for that matter ;-) ) In the latter case, the Liberals scare the hell out of me, because they are likely to put us in a similar spending and taxation box to what our provincial "coalition" embarked on here in BC back at the turn of the century.

Nab

[Al Czervic]

I think the bigger question right now is “do Canadian’s care ?” Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not suggesting that they should not care or that this is not a serious issue, however is it an issue that Canadians stand up and take notice of ? I mainly raise this question because f they do, we will very likely have a Federal election, and if they do not they the odds are less likely.

I have to say that I am surprised that the Conservatives have allowed themselves to get caught up in this particular mess. There really is no reason to being playing games with the what programs really costs us taxpayer’s and the Federal Liberal MP’s are just as entitled to this information as any Canadian should be. On the whole pretty stupid of the “Harper Government” to get caught up in some basic tactical errors.


Funny how I never heard the CBC say “The Canadian Government” made an error they always say “The Harper Government” made an error and yet when Harper calls it the “Harper Government” somehow that is a bad thing. The joys of Canadian Politics….

[NAB]

Seems to me, if the Liberals force an election, they are going to have to fight it based either on ethics, the economy, or both. It does appear so far they have a case in the ethics department related to the "Harper Government", but they have to be careful because, by extension, lack of ethics is something the business community is often noted for too and besides, talking about raising taxes on "business" hasn't won them many friends in that arena lately. Also, it is not to be claimed that the Liberals are long on ethics and lack hypocrisy either.

The economy of course is their short suite (by a wide margin IMO), so even if they try to run on both they are going to come up on the short end of the stick. Sure there are some relatively minor social issues at play, but the NDP will largely steal their thunder on that front - and none of those types of issues are particularly hot button election fight material anyway. And the Bloc is always a wild card in these games.

It's now looking more to me like any attempt to bring down the government prior to a budget being delivered and debated will most probably fail. Gawd, my personal political views are normally pretty steady, but these guys now have me changing them every hour or so LOL.

But the bottom line with me is that the Conservatives have the talent thus ability to stay steady, calm, cool, on message and on track under fire, something that is of supreme importance to the Canadian economy right now IMO. In fact the Bloc and the NDP are quite strong in that regard too. The Liberals however are like a farte in a glove under Iggy,. and that fails to generate confidence in anything they say or do. They may decide to try to force an election, but for all the wrong motives IMO. And if they succeed in doing that, they most certainly will not win it (again IMO).

So best they focus on the budget deliberations, and spend some more time learning how to govern before they take another run at trying to, rather than continue to play petty politics at the school yard level. Even the NDP are starting to make the Liberals look like they are in their second childhood and long past their best before date

Nab

[Al Czervic]

I agree nabs. The Liberals will absolutely get creamed if they have an election over the budget. I suspect even they know that. Their ONLY hope is to try and have an election over ethics…I say try because it is not exactly like the Federal Liberal Party is exactly the moral beacon on ethics themselves. If this election IS about ethics the Liberal most certainly have a few ethics skeletons in their own closet.

Still “ethics” is ALL the Federal Liberals have….they certainly have presented squat for policy and vision. Remember a while back they even had a policy and vision conference? Does anyone remember a single idea from that the Federal Liberals put forward? Iggy is about as inspiring as a dried up sponge, Bob Rae is likel a soggy potato and they have presented zero for Canadians to actually vote for.

I am still speculating that Harper will start leaking some of the goodies in his budget and I think we should all put in ear plugs because the sabre rattling in Ottawa is going to be deafening. If the Liberals are going to go for it they will need to do it before the budget is dropped. Could we have a May election ?

[NAB]

Could we have a May election ?

Starting 3 months ago and up to 3 days ago I would have answered no way, it'll be spring or fall of 2012.

2.5 days ago I would have answered "maybe" but unlikely

A day ago I was back to no way, and this morning bordering on yes, definitely.

Now I am back to no way - either later this year or most likely spring 2012.

Stay tuned, i'm not very sure about anything any more LOL. I think I'll go out and get a nice bottle of wine to have with dinner. It (and a full stomach) usually helps me make up my mind if I can stay awake long enough ;-)

Or perhaps it should be a scotch evening.

Nab

[Urbane]

I have no idea what the odds are for a spring election but if the opposition forces an election over the recent "scandals" they may be surprised to find out that most Canadians could care less about what's happening in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have certainly been less than tidy but the economy, one way or the other, will determine the outcome of the next election.

Until the Liberals have a proper leadership process and select a credible leader they're going nowhere. If I were Harper I'd be in no hurry to have a vote because he's better off with Iggy as leader of the Liberals. If the Liberals elect a credible leader who appeals to Canadians Harper will have a problem but until then he's in good shape.

My first choice at the moment is Harper and the Conservatives but I think that Andrew Coyne makes a great point in this week's Maclean's Magazine when he suggests we need a new party not into the political games that we currently see in Ottawa. We're not being served particularly well by any of the parties. I'd love to see a fiscally conservative libertarian type party established that sweeps the country but until then I'll be happy if the Conservatives have another term while the Liberals try and get their act together.

[NAB]

Ya know, although the outcomes are likely to be quite different, in a number of ways the Harper Government (hence Harper) is facing a similar set of circumstances that the Liberal Government (hence Campbell) in BC faced. This excerpt from a Postmedia News item by Mark Kennedy could very well have been part of a news item here early last fall, with very little editing..

"... the opposition parties can smell blood and they think they have a storyline that will resonate with voters. They have long tried to persuade voters that Harper is, at his core, an autocratic bully who doesn’t respect democracy, abuses power and hides the truth."

Campbell of course fell on his sword (perhaps with some inside help) at a time when his Liberals were in serious decline - not really over any budget issues but over similar things mentioned in the excerpt about Harper, ...and the BC opposition (NDP) were very much anticipated to walk away with any ensuing election. Harper of course will not do that as he has the bells to face (and trust) a more informed electorate to make the right decisions, and does not display paranoia and fear of the opposition. It's almost as if he finds them boring LOL.

In BC, the opposition NDP, smelling blood and highly confident their turn had finally come once more, somehow managed to self destruct in their haste to get at the spoils and blew their opportunity (or maybe, when their prospects of becoming a government in difficult economic times seemed imminent, their confidence collapsed in a heap and they "did it" to themselves on purpose in order to avoid the embarrassment of almost certain failure as a government).

.....the question is, will the federal Liberals, in spite of their sabre rattling at the sight of a bit of Conservative blood that only needs a bandaid, be smart enough to do similar (except not in quite such a self destructive way as the BC NDP) .....and let Harper carry on? It wouldn't surprise me - they have done it on numerous occasions before. The smarter ones among them (and Iggy doesn't count in that group IMO) ....know it is much easier to sit back and criticize those having to do the job, than have to do it themselves from what would be a minority position of their own at very best.

Besides, they know full well Canadians cannot afford them right now, even if they did cancel the jets, gut our military and sovreignty once more, and mess up our relations with NATO and much of the world as a result. And if they think Obama and the US will be impressed, ...they had better think again. An Obama Iggy is definitely NOT. He would crumble like a soggy cake at the first sign of REAL blood or adversity.

Nab

[NAB]

I have no idea what the odds are for a spring election but if the opposition forces an election over the recent "scandals" they may be surprised to find out that most Canadians could care less about what's happening in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have certainly been less than tidy but the economy, one way or the other, will determine the outcome of the next election.

Until the Liberals have a proper leadership process and select a credible leader they're going nowhere. If I were Harper I'd be in no hurry to have a vote because he's better off with Iggy as leader of the Liberals. If the Liberals elect a credible leader who appeals to Canadians Harper will have a problem but until then he's in good shape.

My first choice at the moment is Harper and the Conservatives but I think that Andrew Coyne makes a great point in this week's Maclean's Magazine when he suggests we need a new party not into the political games that we currently see in Ottawa. We're not being served particularly well by any of the parties. I'd love to see a fiscally conservative libertarian type party established that sweeps the country but until then I'll be happy if the Conservatives have another term while the Liberals try and get their act together.

Well, I'm back to yes, or no on a May election Urbane. What it now comes down to now IMO is that it is Harper's choice. All he really has to do is give Layton and Duceppe a decent plum, and no election. If he does not, there will likely be one. Of course, as always, Duceppe and the Bloc are still the face down wild card.

Nab

[Al Czervic]

Given the recent departure of Stockwell Day and the ilk I surmise an election is imminent. I predict we will be potentially headed to the polls in May…..I got my Leader’s Circle membership renewal forms form the Conservatives late last week and the enclosed letter spoke as if an election were imminent as well….Here we go…..

[NAB]

YUp. I got a call a month or so ago from a pollster. After taking the poll I got involved in a discussion with him and supported my position that there would be no election unless Harper wanted one. I got the distinct impression from that conversation that it was a done deal that there would be. We closed with me saying I didn't think there would be because it would make no sense, and the individual promised to call me back in April just to see who I was going to vote for in the May election LOL.

Nab