What's next for the Liberals?

[NAB]

Almost as unbelievable that the Liberals sending messages they should explore a merger with the NDP, are those who seem to think Justin Trudeau is the solution to their leadership problems. Heck, they are now even thinking about letting Bob Rae off the hook with respect to his promise not to run for the permant leadership if chosen to be interim leader while they found a decent permanent one. ....Seems the "Liberal" party, be they the federal or a provincial one, are totally lost in the wilderness when it comes to leadership talent. They are done, ....like last Christmas' turkey carcass. Federally and Provincially...

Nab

Before picking Justin, Liberals should study the real Pierre

There is something to remember about Pierre Trudeau as his fans across
Canada (OK, a few parts of Ontario and scattered Liberal party redoubts) get
all excited about the prospects of his son, Justin, running for leader.

Despite what failing memories may think they recall, and what desperate
Liberal greyhairs insist is the truth, the man spent great chunks of his
political career being deeply unpopular. He also had trouble getting
re-elected, and succeeded, for the most part, not because of his charm
(which could come and go) or policies (which were often iffy), but through
the grace of the Great Liberal Party Election Machine, which in those days
was truly something to behold.

There is no question that Trudeaumania was an authentic phenomenon in 1968,
the year of Pierre's first victory, and delivered the Liberals 154 of 264
seats. And it's just as true that four years later the country had already
had enough of him and was ready to move on. The Liberals lost 46 seats and
came within two of being defeated. Trudeau survived only because the NDP's
David Lewis ran a better-than-expected campaign and kept the
Progressive-Conservatives from picking up all of those 46 lost seats. Not
much of a triumph for the great Philosopher King.

In ensuing years Trudeau let the Liberal machine run his elections. After
two years in minority, he was returned to a majority largely by co-opting
NDP policies and unleashing the wave of spending that led to many of the
deficit problems of later years. Nonetheless, by 1979 (after Trudeau dragged
out the mandate as long as possible), he was again so unpopular he lost to
Joe Clark. Five years (and one final resurrection) later, his legacy to the
party was discontent so deep it condemned the party to a decade in
opposition.

So when Liberals cast their eyes towards young Justin and get all misty
about the prospects of another Trudeau, they would be wise to get a hanky
and have another think about things. Justin has even less experience than
his father, and he's not appealing to a bunch of idealistic 1968 flower
children. Canada is not what it was then, a youthful, prosperous country
ready to be swept up by a charismatic Montrealer with a flair for the
dramatic. Voters are older, wiser, more cynical. The limited press entity of
that day has become a 24/7 politician-consuming device. And, crucially, the
party he would inherit is infinitely weaker in resources and wise old hands
of the sort who were able to rescue his father's battered prospects and
rebuild them into a series of second chances. Keith Davey, who saved Trudeau's
bacon more than once, died 18 months ago. The Liberals have no one like him
any more. They blew off the West to their own detriment, and even let Quebec
slip from their grasp. The once overwhelming Big Red Machine is sitting on
blocks in the corner of an old barn, too battered even to be sold off for
parts.

The party also lacks a country willing to believe its bromides the way
Canadians of an earlier generation did. After a few months, the novelty of a
second coming would likely wear off, and Justin would be on his own. If not
for good fortune and opposition missteps, his father would almost certainly
have been a one-term wonder, long since forgotten, if the well-oiled Liberal
apparatus hadn't saved him from himself. Justin wouldn't have that safety
net. Is he ready, at an even younger age and with even less experience than
his father, to take a much weaker party and rebuild it in the face of
opponents who are far better placed to defeat him than the parties of his
father's day?

The pool of Liberal talent isn't deep, it's true. They might not have much
choice. But they shouldn't kid themselves into thinking there's a Second
Coming in the works. Because the First Coming wasn't what they claim it was.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/201 ... nt-pierre/

[The Green Barbarian]

The Liberals used to win because they were a big tent party that incorporated the center, and they could almost always (except for 1984) count on Quebec to give them enough seats that they didn't need much more if they could get Ontario on board. The Conservatives have usurped their center position and also maintained their Western power base. With Ontario and the West in the fold, and a few seats in the Maritimes still strong-holds, they have all they need to stay in power, with Quebec doomed to the wastelands where the belong, along with the Liberals and NDP, who have abandoned the center, and now want to range around in the loony-bin of the left. They might as well merge, but I don't see it happening, as the Liberals still think they are top dog, and would want to run everything, which the NDP, and their union backers, aren't going to want to see happen. It will make for an interesting couple of years as this unfolds, however.

[GordonH]

I try to stay out of writing political post (2 things to try to avoid politics & religion). But I will give it a try, Federal Liberals first and for most need to find a good strong leader (National Leader, not just Ontario & Quebec) lately that has not been the case. Next the Party itself needs to get back to where it was closer to centre of the road choice. But not so much that you could not tell the difference between Liberal & Conservatives

But without a strong leadership this Party is doomed, who that would be is anyones best guess.


:smt102

Added: Canada needs both a strong Governing Party & equally strong Opposition Party. Without it sometimes bad choices can happen, plus we don't what a dictatorship right.

[NAB]

If I heard the radio report correctly this morning, Bob Rae has decided he won't run for the leadership of the Liberal Party. Don't blame him really - what a disaster it has become. Perhaps he could find a home more suitable to his political ideology in the NDP - federal or provincial?

Nab

[GordonH]

If I heard the radio report correctly this morning, Bob Rae has decided he won't run for the leadership of the Liberal Party. Don't blame him really - what a disaster it has become. Perhaps he could find a home more suitable to his political ideology in the NDP - federal or provincial?

Nab

You heard correctly http://www.castanet.net/news/Canada/764 ... leadership

[Urbane]

The Liberals used to win because they were a big tent party that incorporated the center, and they could almost always (except for 1984) count on Quebec to give them enough seats that they didn't need much more if they could get Ontario on board. The Conservatives have usurped their center position and also maintained their Western power base. With Ontario and the West in the fold, and a few seats in the Maritimes still strong-holds, they have all they need to stay in power, with Quebec doomed to the wastelands where the belong, along with the Liberals and NDP, who have abandoned the center, and now want to range around in the loony-bin of the left. They might as well merge, but I don't see it happening, as the Liberals still think they are top dog, and would want to run everything, which the NDP, and their union backers, aren't going to want to see happen. It will make for an interesting couple of years as this unfolds, however.

Yes, the Liberals were successful as a big tent party that incorporated the centre but when they decided to move to the left many of the their traditional supporters moved to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are more of a centrist party than anything else so it's going to be hard for the Liberals to recapture the middle ground even if they choose to do so. And if the NDP and Liberals do eventually merge (it'll take at least another election) more traditional Liberal supporters will then move to the Conservatives. In short, the federal Liberal Party outlook short-term and long-term look about as good as the outlook for the BC Liberal Party.

[Homeownertoo]

And a merged NDP/Liberal party would definitely be left of centre, not centrist. Don't see that working for long.

[NAB]

I just shake my head every time Trudeau's name comes up as a potential Messiah every time the Liberals look for a way out of their decline into oblivion. And picturing him as a potential Prime Minister for Canada just defies belief. They are hell bent it seems in trying to replace the NDP as the Quebec based and beholden party of the far left in Canada, ...and don't seem to realize that is what set them on the path toward oblivion in the first place.
Nab

Can Liberals escape oblivion?
John Ibbitson
Ottawa — The Globe and Mail

Excerpts:
Video: Prime Minister Trudeau? Don't hold your breath

The immediate question is whether Justin Trudeau will put himself forward as the face of that new generation, or whether lesser-known figures will fight for the legacy of a once-great party now mired in third place.

The more lasting question may be whether a new leader with a new vision can arrest the threat that the Liberals will slide into irrelevance in a country that is polarizing into a stark conflict between left and right.

Mr. Rae told his caucus on Wednesday that he would stay on as interim Liberal leader until a new permanent leader is chosen.

He must also have been aware that internal divisions were once again threatening to recreate the factional bitterness that plagued the Liberal Party for decades.

One faction, citing Mr. Rae’s experience, competence and high profile, saw him as the only person who could lead the party out of its current slough of meagre popular support, inadequate fundraising and organizational sclerosis. Up to a third of Liberal riding associations are thought to be effectively moribund.

Another faction was convinced that Ontario voters would never forgive or forget Mr. Rae’s record as the province’s NDP premier, which ended with his decisive defeat in 1995.

Rather than fight such a bitter battle, Mr. Rae chose to step aside.

Mr. Trudeau is the most obvious candidate. The Montreal MP possesses not only the name of his father, former Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau, but some of his charisma as well. He is a passionate advocate of a more socially inclusive federation in which Quebec, once again, would be a vital force on the national stage.

But many Liberals worry, with good reason, about the party’s Messiah complex: its endless search for the leader who will magically return it to its glory days as Canada’s natural governing party.

And Mr. Trudeau has repeatedly said that he does not want to run, citing the need to spend time with his wife and young children.

“My decision is a sign of my own reflection and my family reflection,” Mr. Trudeau told The Globe and Mail, “and my decision is a no, still.”

A larger question might not be who should lead the Liberals, but what the party should stand for. With the troubled economy dominating all other considerations in voters’ minds, politics at the national level is dividing into an ideological contest between the Conservatives – who, under Stephen Harper, stress low taxes, open trade and an expanded natural resource sector – and the NDP – which, under Thomas Mulcair, argues that the Tory approach is damaging both the environment and manufacturing jobs in Central Canada.

The danger for the Liberals, Mr. Bricker said, is that their voice could be lost in the din.

“Without a significant rebranding, a significant reorientation, significant new ideas, and a new splash, they’re just going to continue on this steady track down,” he said.

Rebranding the Liberal Party will be the great challenge for whoever would lead it.

Full article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... le4258087/

Edit to add: Another good read..

Trudeaumania II? Not in the West
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commenta ... le4257898/

[NAB]

"OTTAWA — The Liberal leadership in the Senate allowed a veteran senator to vote on legislation and spend public dollars for at least three months after she was diagnosed with dementia and declared legally incompetent.

Sen. Joyce Fairbairn regularly attended Senate sittings and voted along party lines before the Upper Chamber rose for the summer at the end of June.

Fairbairn’s geriatric psychiatrist diagnosed the senator with dementia of the Alzheimer’s type and declared her legally incompetent in February, according to a letter sent to Senate officials by her niece, Patricia McCullagh."

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/Sick ... story.html