BlackBerry maker CEOs step down as pressure mounts

[Homeownertoo]

http://forums.crackberry.com/general-discussion-f2/sad-day-i-just-lost-another-bbm-buddy-706308/

"... even though I only work at a retail store, most of the employees are highschool/college/university students and there is a massive wave of blackberries being switched to iphones... its ridiculous really. These teens/young adults are their bread and butter consumers for RIM and they are losing them like wildfire....

"I think honestly in North America, BBM has lost the need it once filled, with unlimited texting plans and other free over data Instant Messaging apps like iMessage and Google Talk, Facebook Messenger, it is slowly becoming just an add on to having a BlackBerry, when it once was (with the keyboards) one of the main reasons for consumers to choose it.

"The only thing BBM is good for now is emerging markets where the need for a service like BBM is in huge demand and has already started growing."

[Static]

http://forums.crackberry.com/general-discussion-f2/sad-day-i-just-lost-another-bbm-buddy-706308/

"... even though I only work at a retail store, most of the employees are highschool/college/university students and there is a massive wave of blackberries being switched to iphones... its ridiculous really. These teens/young adults are their bread and butter consumers for RIM and they are losing them like wildfire....

"I think honestly in North America, BBM has lost the need it once filled, with unlimited texting plans and other free over data Instant Messaging apps like iMessage and Google Talk, Facebook Messenger, it is slowly becoming just an add on to having a BlackBerry, when it once was (with the keyboards) one of the main reasons for consumers to choose it.

"The only thing BBM is good for now is emerging markets where the need for a service like BBM is in huge demand and has already started growing."

How many people live in Asia compared to North America? RIM is opening 4000 new stores and kiosks around that continent. There was a near riot where people got trampled on in Singapore upon a release of their phone. Their subscriber base hit 75 million people in Q3 (and still growing), after growing by 30% in Asia. Furthermore, they have not even released their Iphone4 equivalent. More import, is that that their share price would still be undervalued by more than 50% if their earnings fell by half from todays levels, which is not going to happen. That said, I don't expect you to understand it since you were only a Financial Advisor and relied on selling mutual funds.

[twobits]

More import, is that that their share price would still be undervalued by more than 50% if their earnings fell by half from todays levels, which is not going to happen.

That fact by itself should set the alarm bells ringing for you. The market doesn't give companies with no upside a high P/E ratio and is exactly why Rim's P/E is so low. Doesn't the fact that the P/E is so much lower than market averages is not attracting buyers or even supporting the current price tell you something? Rim's days are clearly numbered but good luck to you. I have been wrong before.
Average down now and sell the day before they release the new phone. After that you'll have one more dead cat bounce.

[Static]

That fact by itself should set the alarm bells ringing for you. The market doesn't give companies with no upside a high P/E ratio and is exactly why Rim's P/E is so low. Doesn't the fact that the P/E is so much lower than market averages is not attracting buyers or even supporting the current price tell you something? Rim's days are clearly numbered but good luck to you. I have been wrong before.
Average down now and sell the day before they release the new phone. After that you'll have one more dead cat bounce.

Dead cat bounce for what reasons? Why are they in trouble? You have it completely wrong. RIM has significant earnings, that is why the PE is low. It is no longer a high fligher, which is good because it was severly overvalued at $160 or even $70. Have you ever heard of naked shorting? It is a common practice amongst hedge funds. RIM has been shorted for years, the strategy finally worked. When investors such as Fairfax Financial invest $500m into a company, I will choose to listen to them rather than a bunch of financially illiterate sheep who lost a fortune from buying it a high PE, which 99% of mutual funds and Bay Street professionals are guilty of.

All I have asked is for people to contribute some concrete basis for their negativity. All people seem to have is analyst BS that is ALL hearsay. Critique their financial statements for me, who knows, you may change my mind.

[The Green Barbarian]

I am just back from Asia - I was surprised at how many Blackberry users there still are over there - Hong Kong etc. RIM must be selling their phones to somebody.

[Static]

Their Q3 sales in Asia were up 30% from a year ago.

[Homeownertoo]

All RIM's hopes rest with BB10, if its arrival is not too late. If if does prove highly competitive in terms of price, and more importantly, features and functions, it'll live to fight another day. Otherwise, current BB users will sign on to iphones and androids when their contracts expire. Fact is, RIM has all but lost its niche in the smartphone market. The competition simply has better featured phones. Its tablet is competitive, but its not enough to keep the company afloat. All the rest static is talking about is just static, and irrelevant if the products slowly stop selling, first in NA, next in Europe, then Asia and the rest.

[Static]

It will survive. You are also forgetting about RIMS closed and secured network demanded by business, Push EMail technology, and the billion or so worth of trade marks.

[Captain Awesome]

Y'all gotta start putting money where your opinion is. You know, a little bet of some kind.

[Static]

Y'all gotta start putting money where your opinion is. You know, a little bet of some kind.

Who, me?

[Homeownertoo]

It will survive. You are also forgetting about RIMS closed and secured network demanded by business, Push EMail technology, and the billion or so worth of trade marks.

Lots of business are moving away from that, allowing people to bring their own smartphones in. I'm not forgetting about it. That is precisely the niche I was talking about that I said they are losing. You should try reading about the issues facing BB instead of focusing on financials that are not leading indicators. For example, BB still does well when in developing markets because it has cheap 2G sets for their 2G networks. When those buyers want 3G or 4G phones, they overwhelmingly choose either iphones or androids, just like in the US and, increasingly, Europe. If BB10 doesn't change that dynamic, Rim will lose its third world markets over the next three years. And Rim, unlike you apparently, knows that; they just can't move fast enough against deep-pocketed rivals.

[Static]

Homeowner, put your money where your mouth is and short the stock. RIM is making a 4G BTW.

If I lose on RIM, it will be my fourth loss out of 33 stock. Oh ya, 88% success rate.

[Homeownertoo]

I've noticed you're really big on the schoolyard taunts, that last preserve of overaged adolescents. But you don't want to address any point anyone has made. So sad.

Here's another point for you to ignore:

(Reuters) - Research In Motion (RIM.TO) will be forced to slash the fees it charges carriers for BlackBerry service this year, an analyst said on Monday, cutting into a pillar of the struggling smartphone company's business model.

RIM runs its own network infrastructure, enabling it to encrypt, compress and push data to BlackBerry phones via a cellular network. The Canadian company earned almost $1 billion from the service last quarter, one-fifth of its total sales.

But RIM has moved too slowly to counter the threat posed by companies allowing their employees to use their own mobile devices for work, and carriers have soured on paying the fee, according to Northern Securities analyst Sameet Kanade.

"We now firmly believe that RIM does not have the luxury of time on its side," he wrote in a note to clients in which he cut his rating on RIM stock to "sell" from "speculative buy" and chopped his price target to $7 from $24.

RIM's make-or-break BlackBerry 10 smartphones, due out later this year, will require a new server software component called Mobile Fusion that also allows its core enterprise customers to manage rival devices such as Apple's (AAPL.O) iPhone and iPad and those using Google's (GOOG.O) Android software.

But Kanade said both traditional software companies and carriers are introducing similar products at a lower cost.

Kanade estimates RIM gets roughly $5 a month per subscriber, which could fall below $2 per user by February 2013. He expects service revenue to fall 48 percent in the next two years.

Northern's parent company owns Jaguar Financial, which has agitated for radical change at RIM including a break-up or sale.

RIM's shares fell 3.6 percent to $13.30 on Nasdaq. They have shed 80 percent of their value since last February amid falling U.S. market share, botched product launches and dismal earnings.

[twobits]

Homeowner, put your money where your mouth is and short the stock. RIM is making a 4G BTW.

If I lose on RIM, it will be my fourth loss out of 33 stock. Oh ya, 88% success rate.

Lol. With the performance of all major north american stock markets over the past year, 88% is not extraordinary. Anyone with a blindfold, 33 darts, and a Dow listings sheet would have matched your success. When you can claim 88% winners in a down market, I'll ask you for your opinion but until then, I'll stick to my opinion that the odds are heavily against RIM and the risk outweighs the reward. BTW, I am completely out now but did make some nice change shorting them down to 15. I might do it again if they spike after the BB10 release.

[Static]

Lol. With the performance of all major north american stock markets over the past year, 88% is not extraordinary. Anyone with a blindfold, 33 darts, and a Dow listings sheet would have matched your success. When you can claim 88% winners in a down market, I'll ask you for your opinion but until then, I'll stick to my opinion that the odds are heavily against RIM and the risk outweighs the reward. BTW, I am completely out now but did make some nice change shorting them down to 15. I might do it again if they spike after the BB10 release.

My recommended portfolio is up 114% in 8 years compared to 39%,24%, and 2% for the TSX, DJIA, and the S&P, respectively. I have 21 trades averageing 37% with an average holding period of 1.9 years. I have outperformed all major stock markets. And yes, it is extraordinary.