Canada’s jobs ‘shocker’

[NAB]

Here’s what top economists are saying about the numbers:

Derek Holt and Don Zigler, Scotiabank (Report titled ‘CDN JOBS SHOCKER)

What a way to end a year and it reinforces our argument since last Fall that there should be a higher probability of a rate cut from the BoC priced into the curve alongside sharply undershooting inflation.
2013 was by far the weakest year for job growth since the recession with the jobs tally up by only about 100,000 for the full year on the heels of this morning’s December disappointment.
The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% from 6.9% because of the jobs loss but also because the labour force expanded by 21,000.
Full time jobs fell by 46,000 and part-time jobs were up 14,000. Part time job growth outpaced full-time job growth by about a four to one factor. Not only was job growth weak, but the quality of job gains was also poor.


Douglas Porter, Bank of Montreal

The Canadian dollar needed this like another hole in the head. The dismal jobs data will simply pour on the pressure for the sagging Canadian dollar, which was only spared more pain by a disappointing U.S. jobs gain for December.
Digging beneath the ugly headline reveals more ugliness, as full-time jobs tumbled 60,000, and thus barely managed to rise at all last year.
The broad-based losses suggest that while harsh weather may have played a role in the drop, there were other factors at play. The health care sector offset the drop in education with a 22k rise, while manufacturing was an extremely rare source of good news with a 7.5k advance.
The extent of Canada’s job growth underperformance versus the U.S. is the big story here—the eye-popping stat is the abrupt turnabout between the jobless rates in the two countries (even if the U.S. improvement is overstated by a plunging participation rate).


Krishen Rangasamy, National Bank

December’s Labour Force Survey was awful across the board with an ugly headline number and even worse details. The declines in full time, private sector jobs are disappointing.
At this point, we expect Canada’s Q4 GDP growth to be around 2.5% annualized.
Regardless, the ugly jobs report should be positive for fixed income.


Sonya Gulati, TD Economics

The Canadian labour market ended 2013 on a very soft note. Not only was the headline contraction in December sizeable, but the losses were broad-based across industries and exclusively seen in full-time positions. This was not the trifecta that economists were hoping for.
While the labour market ended 2013 with a loud thud, December’s poor showing was likely a one-off versus a new norm. The economic indicators to date suggest that the Canadian economy will grow by roughly 2-2.5% in 2013Q4.


Mark Chandler, RBC

There is some indication that unseasonably cold weather was a factor – construction was weak (-14.1k, though this is the fourth consecutive month of decline in this category) while accommodation/food services was also soft (-16k) – but it is clearly not the whole story given the magnitude and breadth of the move.
It will be very important how [Bank of Canada] Governor Stephen Poloz characterizes the impact of CAD weakening at the rate meeting on the 22nd (i.e. to what extent it is seen as stimulative) in assessing whether this pricing can be maintained. We continue to look for a steady overnight rate target of 1.00% at this stage.


Jimmy Jean, Desjardins Capital Markets

The result of December confirms softening consumer sentiment towards the job market, and with hourly earnings’ growth shifting down, combined with the jump in the jobless rate, the BoC will all more likely continue to fret about slack and downside inflation risks.
The numbers temper a bit of the optimism that led the Fed to announce tapering in December. The FOMC must be glad that it took the decision then, as it might have become more complicated to make the announcement in January after such a soft number.

With files from Reuters

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/ ... -december/

[GrooveTunes]

Nobody should be shocked.

[grammafreddy]

No shock. Everyone is waiting to see what Obama is doing next. The "affordable healthcare" issue has gone quiet and undercover. No new press releases about that. He has managed to embarrass himself quite thoroughly with his actions at Mandela's funeral, as well. His smoke and mirrors topic now is Economic Class Disparity.

[flamingfingers]

Yup, jobs are hard to come by and you KNOW how hard times are getting when you see this:

[grammafreddy]

Whose propaganda is that?

[flamingfingers]

Whose propaganda is that?

Ah, GF, this is not 'propaganda' - it is true. Strahl is performing all of these functions. Didn't you know?

[grammafreddy]

That wasn't what I meant - what is the source of that?