Bad News for the Losers . . .

[Partmanpartfish]

... Trudeau and the Liberals gaining even more support.

Liberals increase support since election, early polls suggest

The trappings of power apparently look good on the Liberals.

According to polls, the party has more support today than it did on election night, suggesting that some Canadians — particularly those who voted for the New Democrats a little over four months ago — have been newly won over by the Liberals' performance in the early days of their government.

...

The Conservatives have averaged 29.1 per cent support over the last quarter, a drop of 2.8 points from the election. The New Democrats have slipped more dramatically, falling 5.1 points to 14.6 per cent.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier ... 16?cmp=rss

[Ka-El]

All the sour grapes whining is probably showing everyone else just how desperate the partisan Conservative, Harper fanbois have become in trying to find things to criticize Trudeau for. People are thinking "Really? This is the most important thing you have to complain about?" It is becoming more and more obvious that the correct choice was made on election day.

[Donald G]

I seriously doubt that information put out by the Liberal Party is proof positive of the very pro liberal information given. The CBC is noted for its far left wing thinking.

[bob vernon]

It's no surprise that the Liberal polling numbers have gone up. Look at the act they're following. Anybody who took over from Harper would be seen as a big improvement.

[Partmanpartfish]

Donald, you're making up facts.
The results posted in the piece are an average of recent polls, not a single poll by the CBC.

[Donald G]

Postby Partmanpartfish » 12 minutes ago

Donald, you're making up facts.
The results posted in the piece are an average of recent polls, not a single poll by the CBC.

Since averaging averages is NOT accurate math, nor acceptable in compiling statistics it is a form often chosen by political parties and their supporters to arrive at a favorable finding. It all depends on the questions posed and how the results are interpreted.

[Partmanpartfish]

Statisticians disagree with you, Donald.

[logicalview]

The New Democrats have slipped more dramatically, falling 5.1 points to 14.6 per cent.

For once I have to agree with one of your idiotic thread titles. This completely fake poll is really bad news for the NDP. They drop any further and they might lose official party status next election.

[Donald G]

Unread postby Partmanpartfish » less than a minute ago

Statisticians disagree with you, Donald.

WADR they would have to be staunch Liberal or NDP Statisticians that failed math.

Poll #1 - 1000 people poled; 800 like A and 200 like B ... 80% vs 20%
Poll #2 - 100 people poled; 20 like A and 80 like B ... 20% vs 80%

Average the averages and 50% like A and 50% like B.

By actual and correct math calculation, out of the 1100 people poled 820 like A and 280 like B ...

Actual math determines that 74% like A and 26% like B

[Bsuds]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

"Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on poll averages. This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average.[11] An example of a polling average can be found here: 2008 Presidential Election polling average
. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that the breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle."

So I would think based on the number of opinions (1) (Donald G) That the probability of accuracy of said opinion is close to zero.

That's just my opinion and I could be in the same boat.

[Donald G]

Good article Bsuds. Most of the information in the article that you posted is included in the Polling / Statistics courses that are taught in first year University. Or at least it used to be. As noted I limited my comments to averaging outcomes. If your head is in an oven and your feet are on a block of ice then ON THE AVERAGE you are at room temperature.

[Bsuds]

The average is 1 out of 4 people are crazy. If you look at 3 of your friends and they appear OK then guess what.

[Donald G]

I think that since about one out of four people support the NDP there has to be a lot of credence to that one out of four Canadians being crazy comment Bsuds.

When NDP falls below 25% does that mean that a number of them have been partly cured and switched to the Liberals, the next most socialist party in Canada ??

[Retrosnap]

We're still only a short way into his mandate.

All politicians start out with a honeymoon, and JT has the advantage over Harper in that he was liked from the start.

At the moment, he's making everyone feel good, but the bills haven't come in yet, and at some point everyone will have to stop blaming Harper.

Right now, we don't know how bad the budget is going to be. We don't know the cost of the climate change commitments he has made. We don't know how much it will cost to fully implement the recommendations of the TRC, although he has committed to implementing all of them. We don't know how much the MMIW inquiry will cost, and we don't know how much it will cost to fix the recommendations in the inevitable outcome (everyone is to blame). We don't know the cost of the pain of switching away from a carbon economy without jobs to replace those that will be lost. We don't know how he plans to deal with the coming regional divisions, as the east reasserts the muscle it lost during the Harper years, and decides to "stick it" to western Canada.

There's too much that we don't know. At some point, when the feel good afterglow begins to wear off, Justin and the rest of us will have to face some pretty ugly truths. When that day comes, his popularity will tank, just as every other politician before him,

[Partmanpartfish]

WADR they would have to be staunch Liberal or NDP Statisticians that failed math.

Poll #1 - 1000 people poled; 800 like A and 200 like B ... 80% vs 20%
Poll #2 - 100 people poled; 20 like A and 80 like B ... 20% vs 80%

Average the averages and 50% like A and 50% like B.

By actual and correct math calculation, out of the 1100 people poled 820 like A and 280 like B ...

Actual math determines that 74% like A and 26% like B

Donald, you have obviously never taken a stats course and have no idea how modern polling works, WADR.