Alberta's most dangerous animal

[Rwede]

Alberta's most dangerous animal: A desperate NDP likely never to form government again

FIRST POSTED: TUESDAY, AUGUST 01, 2017 10:45 AM MDT


If the trend sticks, Alberta will be rid of the NDP come next election.

That’s the good news.

The bad news?

What does a desperate NDP, reading the tea leaves that it will likely never form government in this province again, do?

A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll shows that if an election was to be held today, the new United Conservative Party would take power.

Of the 2,100 Albertans polled days following the vote that merged the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties into one right-of-centre voice, 57% of decided and leaning voters said they would vote UCP.

Only 29% of decided or leaning voters would mark their X beside the NDP candidate.

It’s no surprise as the popularity of the first-term NDP government has continuously slipped as Albertans sobered up to the reality of what they’d done.


SNIPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP


True to form, Premier Rachel Notley and her MLAs have proven they are very much NDP.

They like debt.

A lot of debt.

It is forecast to hit $71.1 billion by 2019-20. Debt servicing costs by then are estimated to be $2.3 billion a year.

This year’s deficit is forecast at $10.3 billion.

No less than three credit rating agencies have downgraded Alberta’s credit rating since the NDP took power.

And while that may sound innocuous, it equates to higher interest rates on a growing mountain of debt.

So what exactly does the NDP do when it sees its window of power closing?

Does the social engineering, unsustainable overspending and bureaucracy building kick into high gear?

What ideological stumbles lie ahead?

At what cost?

As has been the case when other socialist governments were ousted in other provinces, there will be a mess to clean up.

How quickly a new government can get Alberta’s books in order depends on just how a desperate NDP behaves in the year-and-a-half it has left.

[Gone_Fishin]

I believe we'll see a similar situation in BC. Horgan will try to ram through his union-laced bills as fast as he can, through OIC rather than through the Legislature, as he knows he will be punted to the hinterland of perpetual opposition very soon. The damage done will take years to recover from, as it always does with an NDP government. Horgan has already cost BC 4500 jobs within days of taking office, so the sooner he is removed, the better for BC families. Notley knows she's toast, so watch her heap the socialist death blow on Alberta's economy at an ever-increasing rate.

[Dawggss]

I have no doubt the NDP will be defeated in their first re-election attempt.
However this victory for the opposition may not be the celebration situation so many seem to believe.

Ever consider where this vile 'debt' has come from?
Is it a function of NDP policy OR is it the result of needed government actions to address societal / government shortfalls?
Infrastructure maintenance, upgrades, establishment are not free - but when the previous regime (PC) limited or reduced spending on infrastructure needs such as roads, bridges, water/sewage, hospitals / health care facilities and personnel, school construction/renovations, et cetera, it is of no wonder that the inevitable need to spend and amend past deficiencies comes about.
Is the NDP action to address this - resulting in 'debt creation' - a negative? I guess you would say so. Sadly.

The NDP are going to be 'blamed' for addressing this issue - ABers will 'forget' (thanks to media bias) the mis-spending of the PC years and vote in ANY party that promises "lower taxes and better conditions". The irony is the better conditions of society do cost $, and the failure to collect new taxes, require any payments for health care plans, or actually require developers to fund infrastructure, will result in an continuation of an aging and inadequately maintained provincial structure.
(I could draw your attention to a pro-rated comparison of Alberta's HTF and the Norwegian Prosperity Fund - even with the issue of different populations and nation vs province considered - but why get depressed . . . )

This is a sad dilemma. The problem is quite straight forward . . .
Economic decisions (essentially fiscal policy at provincial level) are being made by Political folks in our governing system.
Political folks 'need' to be elected/re-elected to maintain power. Appeal to voters is vital.
Elections/re-elections for Political folks advocating tough economic solutions (increased taxation - both personal and corporate, debt accumulation to maintain or provide citizen needs/wants, and so on) are NOT the pattern for political success - even if these measures are prudent and needed.
The reality is we have entrusted our economic health and societal well-being to folks who are focused on maintaining power and position instead of 'tough economic decision-making'.

Leadership??

So the NDP will be criticisized, blamed, perhaps even scapegoated.
Current world oil pricing, questionable HTFund decisions, rollbacks of AB infrastructure spending, increased AB population needs not being addressed for the past 30+ years will be attached! rightly or wrongly, to Ms. Notley and party.
Obviously I would suggest this is unfair - if not totally predictable, and expected. . . Doomed from Day 1 in so many ways.
I do hope AB citizens hold the UCP (upon election) to the same standard of questioning / criticism as they now do the NDP - and did not for the former PC Party regime.
Good luck and best wishes.

[neilsimon]

With Alberta to be the fastest growing economy in Canada, I trust those who criticised the NDP for the down-turn will recognise this result and start praising the NDP for this growth. Lol, I'm kidding, of course they won't because they just want to criticise the NDP, no matter how good or bad a job they do.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-28/alberta-tops-b-c-to-reclaim-lead-in-canadian-growth-survey

[jimmy4321]

Anything positive happening in Canada , Alberta and hopefully BC in the future will be the quietest threads Lol!

[Rwede]

With Alberta to be the fastest growing economy in Canada, I trust those who criticised the NDP for the down-turn will recognise this result and start praising the NDP for this growth. Lol, I'm kidding, of course they won't because they just want to criticise the NDP, no matter how good or bad a job they do.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-28/alberta-tops-b-c-to-reclaim-lead-in-canadian-growth-survey

"as government deficit spending boosts retail sales" says your article.

Please explain how that is sustainable. Hint: it isn't. Economies dependent on government subsidies will show a short boost, then die a quick death as debt servicing costs consume a large portion of government revenues, resulting in necessary tax increases that kill the economy.

If Notley were doing a good job on the economy, she wouldn't be trailing 57 - 29 in the polls. I understand the confusion among NDP supporters, though, as they still think losing 77 - 2 in 2001 wasn't because the NDP sucked.

[JagXKR]

*removed*

[Rwede]

Notley seems rather adrift, to me.

She's talking tough about ensuring pipelines go through, then she hinders the viability of the projects with a 20% income tax hike and layers of carbon tax.

Even Jagmeet Singh, in the NDP leadership debate, referred to the rift between Notley and Horgan.

Be interesting to see where it all shakes out. But at any rate, we can be certain that the NDP is finished in Alberta for many, many years to come.

[jimmy4321]

Don't be so certain.
The right set the bar so incredibly low for Notely that many see this as crying wolf and so extreme it's impossible to take seriously.
It was the game play Federally, in BC , and in Alberta - it failed

[neilsimon]

...
"as government deficit spending boosts retail sales" says your article.

Please explain how that is sustainable. Hint: it isn't. Economies dependent on government subsidies will show a short boost, then die a quick death as debt servicing costs consume a large portion of government revenues, resulting in necessary tax increases that kill the economy.

Tell that to John Maynard Keynes, the US, any economy with a growing deficit, etc. It has been shown that spending can help boost the economy much greater than the debt incurred. Not that I'm arguing for runaway spending, but I also don't think that debt is always a bad thing.

If Notley were doing a good job on the economy, she wouldn't be trailing 57 - 29 in the polls. I understand the confusion among NDP supporters, though, as they still think losing 77 - 2 in 2001 wasn't because the NDP sucked.

Yes, because popularity is a good judge of ability. By that token Justin Bieber is better than Led Zeppelin (he's more popular these days). Often a less capable person wins the popularity contest. Who would have thought it.

[neilsimon]

...
Just as you criticized the BC libs when we were the best economy in Canada.

I wish people would stop trotting out that lie. BC is not and has not been the best economy in Canada. Okay, by some measures, maybe, but those are measures are not the ones which really matter. Yes, growth is great, but we don't claim that Iraq has a better economy than the US just because the former has a growth rate of around 10% and the latter around 1.6%. Low unemployment is great, but we don't claim that Cambodia (0.5%) has a better economy than Germany (4.0%). The best economy is not the one growing fastest, employing the most, but the one which has already grown the most and is the most productive. We have lower than average GDP for Canada.

[d0nb]

Balancing out a loss of income by taking out a second mortgage and paying bills with credit cards seldom ends well. Albertans should be given a clear choice between reduced spending by government or increased taxes. HST, anyone?

Whether Alberta is, on balance, doing any better or worse than it would have under another stale PC government is anyone's guess. But unlike BC, where about 57% of voters cast their ballot for more government spending, most Albertans voted against it, but got it anyway.

The sympathy vote goes to Alberta.

[maryjane48]

http://m.calgarysun.com/2017/08/01/albe ... ment-again


interesting the op failed to post where the article came from . the calgary sun lol. they probably conducted the poll at the unite the cons convention .

[seewood]

Balancing out a loss of income by taking out a second mortgage and paying bills with credit cards seldom ends well. Albertans should be given a clear choice between reduced spending by government or increased taxes. HST, anyone?

I suppose political suicide and a sense of entitlement is the reason why Alberta has not enacted a provincial sales tax.
All those with disposable incomes such that quads, boats, snowmobiles etc. were moving out of the showrooms at a hellish clip a few years ago with the potential of increasing the provincial coffers( pst) without having to dip into their so called heritage fund or whatever it was called, to pay for the groceries, just didn't make any sense to me....

Alberta with it's high average income is one province I thought could have a PST without too much of an issue.
Shouldn't perhaps compare with Norway for example, but I believe there they pay for the groceries with taxes and the oil revenues went into a fund that has never been touched really and the interest on those funds help keep taxes down or pay for the goodies people want.
Wonder if King Ralph was wanting that?

[d0nb]

Exactly. Albertans are smart enough to know that there is no free lunch. A sales tax is the best way to go.