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The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby Rwede » Sep 13th, 2017, 1:19 pm

Posted by Tony Clement and James Bezan, Facebook:

“Conservatives support policies that strengthen our national defence and ensure that our men and women in uniform have the best equipment, training and support available. Yesterday’s announcement confirms that the Liberal plan to replace Canada’s CF-18 fleet has been fundamentally flawed from the onset. During the 2015 federal election, Justin Trudeau promised to hold an open competition yet at the same time he committed to exclude one of the contenders. This promise was not based on the advice of experts but was made for purely partisan reasons.

“The Liberal plan would result in Canada spending over $6 billion CDN on 18 planes. Last February the United States Department of Defence announced its intention to purchase 90 F-35s for $8.5 billion USD.
As defence analyst David Perry from the Canadian Global Affairs Institute has said, ‘$6.3 billion is awfully expensive for temporary aircraft’. Conservatives wholeheartedly agree.

“On a per plane basis, the United States deal for 90 F-35s would mean a per unit cost of approximately $90 million USD. The Liberal plan proposes to spend over $350 million CDN on each Super Hornet. Even after accounting for the exchange rate, this makes no sense whatsoever. These figures also do not factor in the additional training and maintenance costs that are inevitable when running a mixed fleet. It is unfortunate that Canadian taxpayers are being forced to pay for the Prime Minister’s ill-conceived campaign promises.

“With the threats that exist in the world today, especially from rogue states such as North Korea, it is absolutely necessary we provide our military with the best available equipment to defend Canadians and our allies. According to a recent survey by the MacDonald-Laurier Institute, the vast majority of Canada’s defence experts agree that the government should abandon its plan to purchase an interim fleet of fighter jets and immediately proceed to an open competition. Several of Canada’s allies have completed such a competition in less time than these Liberals have been in power.

“It is time for the Prime Minister to set politics aside and do what is right for Canada’s national defence. He should follow the advice of experts and immediately proceed to an open competition to find a permanent replacement for Canada’s CF-18s.”


https://www.facebook.com/jamesbezan/*bleep* ... 1295069073
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby Dizzy1 » Sep 13th, 2017, 1:35 pm

$90 million for a F35? I'll admit, I'm not up to date on military aircraft - I'm amazed they're that inexpensive
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby seewood » Sep 13th, 2017, 1:58 pm

Hmmm. me thinks they are a decimal point out. $85 billion for the 90 aircraft makes more sense including spares and maintenance. These are expensive aircraft and the Marines vertol model are obscenely expensive.
Regardless, if it is not a decimal point out, $90 mil per copy is about the cost of developing and then building the engine alone I'm guessing.
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby Dizzy1 » Sep 13th, 2017, 2:04 pm

seewood wrote:Hmmm. me thinks they are a decimal point out. $85 billion for the 90 aircraft makes more sense including spares and maintenance. These are expensive aircraft and the Marines vertol model are obscenely expensive.
Regardless, if it is not a decimal point out, $90 mil per copy is about the cost of developing and then building the engine alone I'm guessing.

Not that it's a reliable source, but Wikipedia list a unit price at $85m
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby seewood » Sep 13th, 2017, 2:21 pm

We originally received 138 CF-18's for about $28 mil/copy in 1982 dollars according to Wikipedia.

Just seems to be so very low for a technologically advance aircraft. Hell, the way Trudeau is spending money, he could buy a huge fleet of F-35's for the $6 bill for the F-18 E's, like 66 of the things...
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby Jlabute » Sep 13th, 2017, 7:15 pm

The F18 has quite a few variants which introduce improvements. So F-18 A B C .. up to G. The super hornet designation started at E and is practically a redesign. If we get them used, they won't have that 'new fighter' smell.
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby maryjane48 » Sep 13th, 2017, 7:18 pm

we dont need f35. we let our military decline to the point of being non relevant in the big scheme of things. north korea has nukes . we dont . thats all anyone needs to know .
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby Jx3 » Sep 14th, 2017, 8:42 am

maryjane48 wrote:we dont need f35. we let our military decline to the point of being non relevant in the big scheme of things. north korea has nukes . we dont . thats all anyone needs to know .


Thankfully we don't let random internet trolls decide Defence Policy in this country.

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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby Jx3 » Sep 14th, 2017, 9:57 am

When speaking of "costs" of aircraft, especially military aircraft, it is very difficult to get an actual figure as there are so many different ways of expressing costs.

Depending on who is providing the figures and what their agenda is you will see wildly different numbers, all of them possibly legitimate.
As some expamples:
There is the actual upfront purchase price per airframe.
There is price of airframes plus "x" number of spares.
There is price of airframes, spares and weapons systems.
There is price of airframes, spares, weapons sstems and forecasted cost of maintenance and upgrades.
There is price of airframes, spares, weapons systems, maintenance and upgrades and all forecasted operating expenses including cost of fuel and support infrastructure over the expected lifespan of the aircraft plus all aircrew and groundcrew training and the kitchen sink (qty 1).

It is easy to see how the "cost per airframe" can be made to look outrageously expensive when you start calculating everything associated with it over its lifespan.

Can you imagine the sticker shock if cars were priced including all future maintenance and repairs, tires, fuel and insurance over the entire lifespan of the vehicle? Suddenly your $17,000 Chevy Cruze has a $75k sticker hanging in the window.

When comparing price tags of one aircraft type versus another it is very important to understand what the price is including so you are comparing apples to apples. The actual purchase price of an F-35 may well be $90 mil per airframe (as an example) but when you add in all of the associated costs over the lifespan of the fleet the cost per airframe could well be several times that much. The same would be true regardless of which aircraft is selected.

Edit to add: It should be noted that proponents of one aircraft type will generally quote a price tag that doesn't include all of the ongoing operating expenses while opponents will invariably be quoting price tags including everything. Both may be legitimate figures but used somewhat dishonestly to bolster their own agenda.
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby rookie314 » Sep 15th, 2017, 8:21 pm

The F18 E is a 22 year old aircraft. The F35 is 9 billion for 65 aircraft. Total over 25 years is 32 billion, less than the CBC. Canadian companies are promised, if we buy them, 9 billion in direct sales contracts. When delivered under the Conservatives plan there will be over 700 in service so most of the bugs will be worked out and the unit costs reduced. With pretty boy in charge by 2019 the fighter contract will be so screwed up it will take decades to fix and kiss those contracts good bye.
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby seewood » Sep 16th, 2017, 8:51 am

I agree. When politicians start to decide what is best for the military, procurement goes pear shaped real quick.
Define what the aircraft are to do.
Look at the aircraft available to do the said application
Pick one with the air forces blessing
Buy it in a quantity that makes sense.
Oh, and keep the lobbyists out of the room.

Purchasing a few F-35's and then have our pilots train in simulators because of the cost per hour to fly the F-35's is rather stupid. How many pilots will sign up to fly 100 hours per year and 400 hours in a computer game....
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Re: The Math behind Trudeau's used CF18 purchase

Postby androhn » 53 minutes ago

Heres the math:

1) Give millions to terrorists

2) Spend millions on planes to bomb terrorists

3) Take selfies and virtue signal

4) make up deficit by taxing doctors
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