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Canada post NAFTA?

PostPosted: Jan 23rd, 2018, 11:41 am
by hobbyguy
We continue to see the sentiment developing that NAFTA is dead under Trump, and I note that the Liberals have been playing a bit of hardball with the US on trade issues. (WTO challenges, a tough stance at NAFTA negotiations).

So what happens then? It actually looks like Canada will be will be well placed for a diversification of our trade. That will mean that post NAFTA will, while causing some ripples, not be "the end of the world". We have CETA (Europe), thanks to a joint effort between the Conservatives and Liberals, and it looks like we will have CPTPP.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-24/tpp-resurrected-as-nations-get-set-to-sign-trade-deal/9354502 and https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2018/01/statement_by_ministerofinternationaltradeonsuccessfulconclusiono.html

The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of International Trade, today issued the following statement:

“Strengthening Canada’s economic relationship with countries in the large and economically fast-growing Asia-Pacific region to support prosperity and create jobs for our middle class is a priority for Canada.

“Today, I am pleased to announce that Canada and the 10 other remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership concluded discussions in Tokyo, Japan, on a new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). We are happy to confirm the achievement of a significant outcome on culture as well as an improved arrangement on autos with Japan, along with the suspension of many intellectual property provisions of concern to Canadian stakeholders."

Add to that the very strong possibility of a Canada-Mexico trade deal if NAFTA goes down.

Add also that the US, despite punitive duties, is still buying Canadian lumber (but at very high prices) - and it begins to look like negotiating with the Trump administration is pointless.

So while there would be some short term effects post NAFTA - will we actually be better off mid and long term without NAFTA and the US bullying us?

Re: Canada post NAFTA?

PostPosted: Jan 24th, 2018, 5:01 pm
by Ka-El
Pacific trade deal gives Canada a strategic win

The Trudeau government has chalked up a strategic win by signing on to a new, avowedly more progressive Pacific trade deal. Whether it’s a victory in substance as well is far less clear.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/pa ... &ocid=iehp

Under this agreement, only will the United States (who opted out) be continuing to pay punishing tariffs on their steel exports to Japan – as just one example. And when NAFTA is dead, they will be essentially isolated. Good luck with your economy when all your imports you are dependent on double in cost. Wonder where that ripple effect will be felt most? I feel so bad for the people who were so badly duped and elected Trump into office. Meanwhile, it seems Trudeau’s “jet-setting” ways are starting to pay off in dividends in protecting the Canadian economy by developing new trade deals.

Re: Canada post NAFTA?

PostPosted: Jan 28th, 2018, 12:27 pm
by hobbyguy
An interesting article about the CPTPP and "free" trade deals in general. I don't agree with all of it, but does make several points against "free" trade deals that fuel my own personal skepticism of them:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/why-the-tpp-was-revived-without-donald-trump/9368736

Re: Canada post NAFTA?

PostPosted: Jan 29th, 2018, 7:53 am
by Chyren
The only reality of this whole mess is that Trump has done an amazing job showing the world that we can live without US trade deals. Trade worldwide has become the new "NAFTA" and as the US distances itself from the world in both trade and ideals, we as a country have, and will continue to look to other countries to sell our goods to.

Once big business is slammed in the US by these Trump policies you'll see a massive swing back to the table.

Re: Canada post NAFTA?

PostPosted: Jan 29th, 2018, 2:50 pm
by hobbyguy
Chyren wrote:The only reality of this whole mess is that Trump has done an amazing job showing the world that we can live without US trade deals. Trade worldwide has become the new "NAFTA" and as the US distances itself from the world in both trade and ideals, we as a country have, and will continue to look to other countries to sell our goods to.

Once big business is slammed in the US by these Trump policies you'll see a massive swing back to the table.


It really looks like Trump and crew are really out to scuttle NAFTA. Reading about some of the "poison pill" stuff the yanks are after, it would be foolish for Canada to knuckle under.

The one "poison pill" the yanks put in that makes me laugh is that US companies could sue Canada and Mexico governments under the dispute resolution, but Canadian and Mexican companies could NOT sue US governments. I guess that's what Trump's "fair and reciprocal trade" really means - Canada and Mexico get screwed while the US does the screwing. Pffft!