Russia invades Crimea

[hobbyguy]

That area was part of Russia for a long time until Nikita K arbitrarily made it part of Ukraine. From what I gather, the folks are largely Russian speakers.

There are parallels with our own situation with Quebec.

Ukraine's president has offered more autonomy to the region.

That could work. Unfortunately, the decision by Putin to support armed conflict as a resolution doesn't help. Nor does the Ukrainian government stepping up the armed conflict. Nobody wins with escalating conflict.

[Poindexter]

The concern is where does Putin stop if he's successful in Ukraine. There are other Baltic states and countries such as Poland that have large populations of Russians. If he's allowed to take over portions of Ukraine through force it'll only encourage him to push the envelope in other countries.

[maryjane48]

The concern is where does Putin stop if he's successful in Ukraine. There are other Baltic states and countries such as Poland that have large populations of Russians. If he's allowed to take over portions of Ukraine through force it'll only encourage him to push the envelope in other countries.

yes but the big question is how? you want be the one to go nuclear? things have changed since bay of pigs , west cant do anything much more than complain

[Merry]

Standing up to a bully like Putin would not necessarily precipitate a nuclear war, because I doubt even the Russians want to see that sort of an outcome.

Sometimes, if you nip aggression "in the bud" you can avoid a larger conflict. Bullies seldom pick on those who appear ready and willing to defend themselves.

[maryjane48]

Standing up to a bully like Putin would not necessarily precipitate a nuclear war, because I doubt even the Russians want to see that sort of an outcome.

Sometimes, if you nip aggression "in the bud" you can avoid a larger conflict. Bullies seldom pick on those who appear ready and willing to defend themselves.

lol your counting on putin to be sane, plus if you think the states want or will go toe to toe with russia in a conventional war , its not going to happen, even bush would be going craps getting real fast now

[GordonH]

As I see it the use of nuclear devise will most likely come from a country with little to nothing to lose in a retaliation strike (well at least in mindset of the political leadership, not talking about the citizens).

[Merry]

I doubt anybody, on either side, wants to see the West and Russia go "toe to toe" in a conventional war. Which is why, if the West lets it be known that continued Russian expansionism could produce that kind of outcome, Putin may well back down.

However, if Putin continues to perceive the West as being weak it could embolden him to continue to "push the envelope", and if his boldness leads him to try to expand into a NATO member country we may all get stuck with that conventional war after all. Whether we want to or not.

History proves that the scenario I fear could easily happen. Surely its best to learn from the past rather than repeat it.

[maryjane48]

I doubt anybody, on either side, wants to see the West and Russia go "toe to toe" in a conventional war. Which is why, if the West lets it be known that continued Russian expansionism could produce that kind of outcome, Putin may well back down.

However, if Putin continues to perceive the West as being weak it could embolden him to continue to "push the envelope", and if his boldness leads him to try to expand into a NATO member country we may all get stuck with that conventional war after all. Whether we want to or not.

History proves that the scenario I fear could easily happen. Surely its best to learn from the past rather than repeat it.

yes all true. but it also true that since no western leader is willing to call it a invasion, they admit it is a lost cause . i see eastern ukraine becoming part of russia, done deal now

[Poindexter]

This doesn't sound like a guy who's taking anything off the table while he reminds the world that mother Russia is still a nuclear power.

As Russia’s conventional military capabilities have deteriorated following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on operationalizing its nuclear arsenal. This has been reflected in successive Russian security documents. For example, Russia’s 1997 national security concept stated that Russia would use its nuclear arsenal “in case of a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation,” whether that threat came in the form of nuclear weapons or from a conventionally superior military power.

This threshold was further lowered in Russia’s 2000 military doctrine, which was the first released during Vladimir Putin’s presidency. This document said that Russia would use nuclear weapons “in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation.” This held out the possibility that Russia would use nuclear weapons even if Russia proper hadn’t been attacked. The same doctrine further noted that Russia reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of any kind of weapons of mass destruction against it.

http://www.infowars.com/russias-militar ... war-drill/

[Merry]

since no western leader is willing to call it a invasion, they admit it is a lost cause . i see eastern ukraine becoming part of russia, done deal now

I agree with you; the West has made it clear they will only impose sanctions, and even those sanctions were weaker than they could have been. Regrettably, making money appeared to trump doing what was right.

But if that weak response results in Putin feeling he can expand even further into Ukraine, and then worse still into other neighbouring countries, the West could end up with a much bigger problem than they would have faced if they'd stood up to him in the beginning.

I'm not suggesting that the West should have started a war, far from it, but they could have presented a much more united and stronger response in the very beginning, than the weak, ineffective response that actually happened.

More wars have resulted from the perceived weakness of one side than from the fear of having to face an equally strong foe.

[maryjane48]

i think it was putin seeing a chance to gain some face as the americans are more concerned with middle east, i bet obama phoned putin and said sweet move , never saw it coming, but once i saw west do zero about crimea , it was over

[Poindexter]

http://ww2.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.h ... ss-with-us

“Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers,” Putin told the group of school-aged children on Friday.

Putin’s lengthy public appearance on Friday and his overnight statement on the conflict appear to be an acknowledgment that the war has reached a turning point, potentially requiring greater Russian sacrifice.

“Russia’s partners … should understand it’s best not to mess with us,” Putin said.

Obama has to tread lightly but carry a big stick as they say. They've been careful to give Putin a way out of this where he saves face. If Obama talks tough and threatens with force it would be an embarrassment for Mother Russia to back down. Putin in all likelyhood would not stand for another blow to Russia's damaged ego.

[Captain Awesome]

Situation in Ukraine doesn't really have anything to do with Ukraine. The Western Block has decided to keep pushing and extend their area of influence all the way to Russian borders and turn Ukraine into a hot spot just like they've done before with other countries. It's only natural for Russia to respond to aggression - and yes, extending their area of influence is agression.

When Russians decided to get all sweet with Cuba, USA almost had a heart attack and almost went to war. Well, guess what - Ukraine is Russia's Cuba. And by going there, USA/NATO knew they'll get a reaction out of Russian govt. Too bad these political games of the western countries cost human lives - but as long as they're not American lives, nobody cares.

[Poindexter]

Situation in Ukraine doesn't really have anything to do with Ukraine. The Western Block has decided to keep pushing and extend their area of influence all the way to Russian borders and turn Ukraine into a hot spot just like they've done before with other countries. It's only natural for Russia to respond to aggression - and yes, extending their area of influence is agression.

When Russians decided to get all sweet with Cuba, USA almost had a heart attack and almost went to war. Well, guess what - Ukraine is Russia's Cuba. And by going there, USA/NATO knew they'll get a reaction out of Russian govt. Too bad these political games of the western countries cost human lives - but as long as they're not American lives, nobody cares.

Excellent comparison except your forgetting that the bay of pigs occurred during the Cold War. Or are you saying the Cold War is back on for Russia and the rest of the world missed the memo?

I'd agree that the US embargo on Cuba is an outdated policy and should be eliminated but to compare the invasion of Ukraine to the Cuban missile crisis is a stretch to say the least.

[FreeRights]

I doubt anybody, on either side, wants to see the West and Russia go "toe to toe" in a conventional war. Which is why, if the West lets it be known that continued Russian expansionism could produce that kind of outcome, Putin may well back down.

However, if Putin continues to perceive the West as being weak it could embolden him to continue to "push the envelope", and if his boldness leads him to try to expand into a NATO member country we may all get stuck with that conventional war after all. Whether we want to or not.

History proves that the scenario I fear could easily happen. Surely its best to learn from the past rather than repeat it.

In this particular case, the west is weak. Putin and many Russians firmly believe that some of this land should still be part of Russia, so if, say, the US attempts to do much more to stop them, patriotism takes over and it turns into "the west trying to suppress" the eastern bloc.

Russia controls a huge portion of Europe's oil & gas, as well as a lot of other trade, so there aren't many embargos that the European Union could do that wouldn't effect them more.