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2016-2017 Housing Market

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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Veovis » Mar 20th, 2017, 10:59 am

All I can think of is Charlie and the chocolate factory
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby LTD » Mar 20th, 2017, 11:58 am

forum wrote:
Bman wrote:Forum and his wife can't afford seperate beds.
That sucks huh.

Oh well.
Freedom First. And the kids.
Basics first.


Recently inspired by a trip to Nelson, we're thinking of getting a Family bed.

http://www.apartmenttherapy.com/7-person-family-bed-224936

now I'm gonna puke
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby forum » Mar 20th, 2017, 9:06 pm

housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto will blow to 'complete and utter smithereens'


And kelowna will be indigestion?

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/ex-wall-street-trader-predicts-vancouver-housing-market-implosion/vi-BBydYxJ?refvid=BBydYxJ&ocid=mailsignout

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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby LANDM » Mar 21st, 2017, 7:36 am

forum wrote:
housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto will blow to 'complete and utter smithereens'


And kelowna will be indigestion?

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/ex-wall-street-trader-predicts-vancouver-housing-market-implosion/vi-BBydYxJ?refvid=BBydYxJ&ocid=mailsignout

Now you are requoting the same material? This guy is shorting some mortgage companies.....of course he is going to be a doomer. That is his entire raison d'être.

You'd think you could thInk up something new? Like, darn, I've been wrong for years. [icon_lol2.gif] [icon_lol2.gif]
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby slootman » Mar 21st, 2017, 8:27 am

Cant believe how quiet this thread is these days. I guess the lack of fire and brimstone on the date of the foretold apocalypse took the wind out of the doomsdayers' sails.
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby forum » Mar 21st, 2017, 1:25 pm

Calm before the storm. And the sun came out.
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Static » Mar 21st, 2017, 2:34 pm

I thought the sun is always out in the Sunny Okanagan.
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Jonrox » Mar 21st, 2017, 3:27 pm

I'll say Toronto is anything but calm. Someone who qualifies as being part of the 1% in Canada no longer qualifies for a mortgage based on the average price of a home in Toronto. An individual who earns $250,000/year with $100,000 down won't be able to get a mortgage on what is now the average price there.

The Toronto market is now only being driven by people sizing up and very wealthy investors buying properties as rentals.

The GTA and Vancouver continue to be the anomalies. When those markets adjust and the average price of a home in Canada falls drastically, you guys are going to claim the entire country is crashing though... even though it will be just 2 markets having a disproportionate effect (like they do with the average prices rising so drastically). Those two markets are different than the rest of the country, so extrapolating what's happening there to other parts of the country is foolish.

The average price for a home in Canada is now $519,521. If these two cities are stripped out, the value of the typical Canadian home would drop by more than $150,000 to $369,728.

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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Static » Mar 21st, 2017, 5:13 pm

Jonrox, are you able to show us a market in the US that did not decline?
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Atomoa » Mar 21st, 2017, 5:15 pm

Jonrox wrote:The average price for a home in Canada is now $519,521.


Meanwhile a crack shack tear down in Rutland has a bidding war bring it up to just shy of half a million.

Average wage in BC is 47K a year, and BC'ers owe 1.68 dollars on top of everyone of those 47 thousand dollars they earn.

Lots of contracted unstable work coming up in the future to base your long term debt capacity on as well. Everything is great!
The true business of people should be to go back to
school and think about whatever it was they were
thinking about before somebody came along and told
them they had to earn a living.

- Buckminster Fuller
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Jonrox » Mar 21st, 2017, 5:49 pm

Static wrote:Jonrox, are you able to show us a market in the US that did not decline?

Crash is not the same as decline. But from what I could find, of the 25 major metropolitan areas in the US, only Milwaukee saw prices rise. The declines didn't all happen at the same time and some areas were hit harder than others. Some crashed. Some declined.

Now as far as rural markets, I couldn't find anything and I imagine that's almost impossible to track. But I would think a lot of small markets weren't really affected all that much... but I imagine a lot of them were pretty cheap to begin with.

When a Canadian decline happens, it will likely be felt the most in Toronto and Vancouver. The rest of the country is unlikely to be hit as hard.

Interestingly and maybe surprisingly, some analysts think Toronto is still poised to see a further price increase of 25% this year.

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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Jonrox » Mar 21st, 2017, 5:56 pm

It is kind of interesting going back and reading articles from a few years ago. This is from 2013...

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/stubborn-sellers-killing-canada-real-estate-crash

The one thing missing from the market, for all those people looking for a crash, is a catalyst or an event that will force people to reduce their asking prices. Before this housing market burns up in flames, it needs some type of spark.

And, if you talk to some people, that key event — two that come to mind are a spike in interest rates or job losses — is not happening any time soon.

“Crashes don’t just happen in a vacuum, you need a trigger,” says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC World Markets. “I can’t point to any crisis in the history of crashes that didn’t have a trigger.”


It also talks about people in Toronto who are waiting for the crash to happen that "everyone is talking about". Were they ever wrong.
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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby forum » Mar 22nd, 2017, 12:16 am

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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby Static » Mar 22nd, 2017, 4:48 am

I think there is enough triggers out there. Mainly interest rates can only climb from here, which they appear to be doing. Interest comes at the expense of principal eligibility. Home ownership levels are also working against prices. There a very few buyers left. There is a natural cap on how many people can purchase a house, I believe we are also at that point (although I believe this is declining due to the smart ones cashing out, but there is no reputable data to confirm this). Rampant speculation that exists can end up in a crash as investors flee the market when returns become noncompetitive, which they are. Declining disposable income brought on by higher taxes, higher utilities (ask the folk from Ontario), or climbing interest rates on the largest debt load in Canadian history, now at $1.67 for every dollar in income. Protectionism is another catalyst that can bring down a housing market. There will be no market left unscathed in this housing correction. There are far too many risks working against home prices. Markets always revert to their averages. Kelowna included (experienced price declines in line with Toronto and Vancouver nearly a decade ago).

RLP_AVERAGE_HOME_PRICES_IN_KELOWNA_1993_-_2012.jpg

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Re: 2016-2017 Housing Market

Postby LANDM » Mar 22nd, 2017, 7:43 am

Static wrote:I think there is enough triggers out there. Mainly interest rates can only climb from here, which they appear to be doing. Interest comes at the expense of principal eligibility. Home ownership levels are also working against prices. There a very few buyers left. There is a natural cap on how many people can purchase a house, I believe we are also at that point (although I believe this is declining due to the smart ones cashing out, but there is no reputable data to confirm this). Rampant speculation that exists can end up in a crash as investors flee the market when returns become noncompetitive, which they are. Declining disposable income brought on by higher taxes, higher utilities (ask the folk from Ontario), or climbing interest rates on the largest debt load in Canadian history, now at $1.67 for every dollar in income. Protectionism is another catalyst that can bring down a housing market. There will be no market left unscathed in this housing correction. There are far too many risks working against home prices. Markets always revert to their averages. Kelowna included (experienced price declines in line with Toronto and Vancouver nearly a decade ago).

RLP_AVERAGE_HOME_PRICES_IN_KELOWNA_1993_-_2012.jpg


Except that five year rates just went down......allowing people to qualify for more under the new rules.
So what you feel "appears" to be happening is not, in fact happening.......as usual.

As for few buyers being left, that is also your "feeling" and what "appears" to you, like some sort of apparition in the night.
Funny how the stats don't back that up either.

The apparition is, in fact your older self scolding you for your actions in the prime of your life. [icon_lol2.gif]

But, for you, it's always tomorrow that thInge will happen, isn't it? Tick tock, broken clock.
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