Central Okanagan housing market thread

The forum's Skid Road. DO NOT ENTER unless you're ready for a squabble.

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Mar 2nd, 2018, 8:31 am

There ain’t no partay like a 31 day month partay! Woohoo.

March is always the best for lil' cowboys because it comes after the cumulative depression month of February.......February has bleak skies, after two months of dark bleak-sky days.....it has the highest cost per day for rent......the light through the dreary fogged up basement windows with the broken seals doesn’t highlight the little "trophies" thumbtacked all over the walls.....that same light makes it boring to ride the little hobby horse you got from mom when you were 4......it’s still snowy and slushy out so delivering flyers sucks and making rent in 28 days is terrible.

But, March brings brighter skies and warmer weather....you can move your lil' hobby horse out on the back lawn.....your depression lifts as the days become longer and the time change happens. Mom goes out more so she doesn't check up on you as much so you can keep your hand-drawn trophies tacked on the walls for longer. Those bad people...the "realturds", are busy with flyers so there is more work....and, best of all, since you still weren’t correct on that nasty little real estate prediction, after years of trying, you’re one month closer to being correct!! Yay!! Trophies shall be plentiful!!

Partay on Lil' Cowboy!! The future is bright!

I would use the smilie with the two people clinking the beer glasses together but that would be contributing to the delinquency....so let’s just imagine two of your styrofoam glasses softly pushing together with nice lemonade inside! Mmmmmm..... :up:
LANDM
Guru
 
Posts: 5894
Likes: 1528 posts
Liked in: 2990 posts
Joined: Sep 18th, 2009, 11:58 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby generalposter » Mar 2nd, 2018, 10:18 am

Great to see people picking up on this subject where the previous reject left off.
Someone has to say it.
generalposter
Board Meister
 
Posts: 426
Likes: 102 posts
Liked in: 477 posts
Joined: Oct 16th, 2011, 9:49 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby W105 » Mar 2nd, 2018, 11:43 am

24862303_746950635512988_4999665626476392577_n.jpg


ohh, nice drive by burn there GeneralPoster...lol
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

generalposter likes this post.
W105
Lord of the Board
 
Posts: 3048
Likes: 938 posts
Liked in: 2756 posts
Joined: Apr 20th, 2012, 8:46 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Mar 2nd, 2018, 11:55 am

Jonrox wrote:The vast majority of homeowners will be just fine if a correction happens. My house value could drop in half and it wouldn't matter... I'll just keep living there, paying the mortgage like I always do. And most other people will too.

The problem only gets really bad if the housing market crashes and another factor forces people into a situation where they have no choice but to sell (i.e. high unemployment). If people aren't forced to sell, they'll just keep making their payments, living their life the same as they did when their house was worth a fortune. Nothing in their life will have really changed.

For example, nothing in my life has changed since the value of my house went up by $250,000. I don't have any more or any less money in the bank because of it. On paper, my wealth has risen quite a bit but it hasn't made a real difference in my life. The same holds true if it drops.


Jonrox,

You sound like you are in a minority if the wealth effect has no impact on your consumption. And that just may mean that you are very responsible, or that you have a good grasp of paper profits not realized until sold, or that you simply have such a low discretionary spending that it doesn’t get impacted. But you definitely cannot extrapolate your situation and preferences onto the entire group of homeowners, that would yield no valuable analysis.

Luckily, there are many sources to answer your question for you, and one of them happens to be a paper by the BOC in which they discuss in part, the effects on consumption that rising and falling asset prices have on consumers, through the perception of wealth https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/flood.pdf

And despite sharing the same view as you in regards to ‘our’ perceptions of wealth, I can still admit that I am impacted by it. For example, I had a strong year with assets in the stock market, so I spent $20,000 on discretionary recreation in 2016. In 2017, some of my assets were flat or declining, and despite a robust income, I hesitated more with my discretionary spending, and so we were less generous in rewarding ourselves in 2017. Now part of the reduction in spending was because I had to set aside more income to buy an RRSP to avoid the NDP income tax premium of 2.1% for amounts above a threshold. It was a matter of principal that I prevent Horgan from taking that extra amount of my income, but it still impacted my spending.

Did I feel more wealthy in 2017 than 2016? No. Did I spend less in 2017 than 2016? Yes. For me personally, despite my clear understanding of the mechanics, does the wealth effect exist and does it impact me? Yes.

So just like you, I can’t extrapolate my personal situation and preferences onto the whole population, but it is incredibly important to have a less narrow view, and a lot of people are guilty of being short sighted, especially the politicians steering BC at the moment. I am not criticizing your peronal experience on the topic of wealth effects, but I did want to present the fact that it does exist, and it does impact *most* people (homeowners and anyone with assets).
have you seen my baseball?

Queen K likes this post.
domain
Fledgling
 
Posts: 159
Likes: 34 posts
Liked in: 125 posts
Joined: Sep 4th, 2013, 11:03 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Jonrox » Mar 2nd, 2018, 2:58 pm

Good points. Basically it boils down to "people are dumb" (as is the case with most things). They feel rich when their house is worth a lot and feel poorer when the prices go down, when in reality they're in basically the same situation either way.

domain likes this post.
Jonrox
Lord of the Board
 
Posts: 3479
Likes: 342 posts
Liked in: 1934 posts
Joined: Apr 14th, 2010, 2:09 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Mar 2nd, 2018, 3:36 pm

Jonrox, agreed. And the risk isn’t so much that house prices go down (unless banks become impaired) rather the risk is a positive feedback loop developing in consumer deleveraging and tightening of wallets. The feedback snowballs into lower revenue for businesses, lower employment and lower tax receipts for the gov ‘income’ as well. Highly deflationary, yet the debt persists.

So with the provincial gov betting their wealth redistribution plans on forecasting with present or past revenue in mind, things can quickly turn and result in huge deficits. I expect this NDP plan to tax speculators and tax business payrolls to blow up in their face. Just the same as I expect the federal government to take their deliberate $18B deficit and get caught by a global slowdown, and then end up with a much greater deficit by the end of the year.

I’ll continue do my best to contribute personally, in the selfless act of stimulating the local economy ;)
have you seen my baseball?
domain
Fledgling
 
Posts: 159
Likes: 34 posts
Liked in: 125 posts
Joined: Sep 4th, 2013, 11:03 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby W105 » Mar 2nd, 2018, 6:55 pm

this is pretty quick "dooming"...for 5 or 6 % of the market :)


https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/2 ... tax-impact
W105
Lord of the Board
 
Posts: 3048
Likes: 938 posts
Liked in: 2756 posts
Joined: Apr 20th, 2012, 8:46 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Mar 2nd, 2018, 7:32 pm

W105 wrote:this is pretty quick "dooming"...for 5 or 6 % of the market :)


https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/2 ... tax-impact


Interesting contradictions in that story.

Hazzi says that it will be an easy workaround for out of province people to just hire property management to rent the property out, "A simple option to get around paying the bigger tax is to hire a property management company and put a tenant in the house for the part of the year they are not occupying the residence and they would be exempt from that."

But at the end, the story goes on to say that the out of province speculation tax could take away the incentive to buy rental properties, "Hazzi thinks it could actually have the opposite effect over time by taking away the incentive to buy rental properties, which could shrink supply even further and force rents upward."

So which is it? An easy workaround leading to more rentals, or taking away the incentive to buy rental properties...I don't follow the logic, although I can see why he would be squirming, as his livelihood is under threat by misguided government regulations. I wish these people could elaborate on their rationale.

Its pretty easy to agree with the sentiment in the article that intentionally crashing the market is no way to make shelter more affordable. Perhaps the same logic is applied to BC housing as to the Vietnam war; we must collapse the housing market in order to save it...
have you seen my baseball?
domain
Fledgling
 
Posts: 159
Likes: 34 posts
Liked in: 125 posts
Joined: Sep 4th, 2013, 11:03 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Mar 3rd, 2018, 6:42 am

Canada's recovery will be longer.

With household debt already at record highs, Canadians won't be able to beat the clock this time. No emergency low interest rates, no lines of credit to tap...Oh Canada, what will you do?

14 states that still haven't fully recovered from the housing crash


http://www.businessinsider.com/home-price-recovery-since-financial-crisis-housing-bubble-2018-3
User avatar
forum
Guru
 
Posts: 5528
Likes: 913 posts
Liked in: 1250 posts
Joined: May 10th, 2011, 9:08 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Jflem1983 » Mar 3rd, 2018, 7:50 am

domain wrote:
W105 wrote:this is pretty quick "dooming"...for 5 or 6 % of the market :)


https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/2 ... tax-impact


Interesting contradictions in that story.

Hazzi says that it will be an easy workaround for out of province people to just hire property management to rent the property out, "A simple option to get around paying the bigger tax is to hire a property management company and put a tenant in the house for the part of the year they are not occupying the residence and they would be exempt from that."

But at the end, the story goes on to say that the out of province speculation tax could take away the incentive to buy rental properties, "Hazzi thinks it could actually have the opposite effect over time by taking away the incentive to buy rental properties, which could shrink supply even further and force rents upward."

So which is it? An easy workaround leading to more rentals, or taking away the incentive to buy rental properties...I don't follow the logic, although I can see why he would be squirming, as his livelihood is under threat by misguided government regulations. I wish these people could elaborate on their rationale.

Its pretty easy to agree with the sentiment in the article that intentionally crashing the market is no way to make shelter more affordable. Perhaps the same logic is applied to BC housing as to the Vietnam war; we must collapse the housing market in order to save it...



Its Aj Hazzi. He says whatever he can to get paid. Guy is gonna have to settle with karma some time. I wouldnt worry much about what he says.
Now they want to take our guns away . That would be just fine. Take em away from the criminals first . Ill gladly give u mine. "Charlie Daniels"

You have got to stand for something . Or you will fall for anything "Aaron Tippin"
User avatar
Jflem1983
Lord of the Board
 
Posts: 4168
Likes: 8862 posts
Liked in: 2371 posts
Joined: Aug 23rd, 2015, 11:38 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Mar 3rd, 2018, 8:03 am

This has nothing to do with the topic of the OKANAGAN HOUSING MARKET. The above link is now thrown the US market into this thread.
:topic:
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you.
User avatar
alanjh595
Lord of the Board
 
Posts: 3907
Likes: 1561 posts
Liked in: 2419 posts
Joined: Oct 20th, 2017, 5:18 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Bsuds » Mar 3rd, 2018, 8:33 am

Jflem1983 wrote:
Its Aj Hazzi. He says whatever he can to get paid. Guy is gonna have to settle with karma some time. I wouldnt worry much about what he says.


The only thing I know of this guy is from the ads on TV, They are enough to disbelieve anything he says.
I have never tried Yoga but I bent over to pick up my keys once so I'm pretty sure I wouldn't like it.

Jflem1983 likes this post.
User avatar
Bsuds
The Wagon Master
 
Posts: 42235
Likes: 8277 posts
Liked in: 10448 posts
Joined: Apr 21st, 2005, 10:46 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby normaM » Mar 3rd, 2018, 9:15 am

In the article you posted FORUM he is wearing a blue shirt.
I thought the tax was if the house sat empty
Isn't AJ the guy says he'll buy your house if it doesn't sell in 24 secs or something like that?
Wonder why realtors always have to put their picture on billboards, business cards etc> Odd that
Don't think yourself as an ugly person... Think of yourself as a beautiful monkey
User avatar
normaM
Buddha of the Board
 
Posts: 15286
Likes: 3704 posts
Liked in: 2234 posts
Joined: Sep 18th, 2007, 7:28 am

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Mar 3rd, 2018, 9:26 am

alanjh595 wrote:This has nothing to do with the topic of the OKANAGAN HOUSING MARKET. The above link is now thrown the US market into this thread.
:topic:


Which link alanjh595?

You know what has nothing to do with this thread? Your attempts to moderate it like some kind of overzealous senior on neighborhood watch. Quit being such a wet blanket and post something worth reading, or apply for a Castanet forum moderator job.
have you seen my baseball?

3 people like this post.
domain
Fledgling
 
Posts: 159
Likes: 34 posts
Liked in: 125 posts
Joined: Sep 4th, 2013, 11:03 pm

Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Bsuds » Mar 3rd, 2018, 9:34 am

domain wrote:Which link alanjh595?

You know what has nothing to do with this thread? Your attempts to moderate it like some kind of overzealous senior on neighborhood watch. Quit being such a wet blanket and post something worth reading, or apply for a Castanet forum moderator job.


Well this is in the Bickering threads so pretty much anything goes. Bicker away!
I have never tried Yoga but I bent over to pick up my keys once so I'm pretty sure I wouldn't like it.
User avatar
Bsuds
The Wagon Master
 
Posts: 42235
Likes: 8277 posts
Liked in: 10448 posts
Joined: Apr 21st, 2005, 10:46 am

PreviousNext

Return to Bickering Room

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CommonCrawl [Bot] and 0 guests