Central Okanagan housing market thread

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby atenbacon » Mar 7th, 2018, 9:12 pm

forum wrote:Well, I never thought I'd hear a Realturd say the market in Kelowna is going to crash...but I heard it today.

The narrative has changed. Game over Kelowna. It had potential, but so did the dumpster houses in Rutland trying to sell for over $500,000. Nobody is even looking at them anymore.

Bye bye housing market. The smart money has left town.


I talked to a realtor today that said he jokingly told some kid that lived in his moms basement that the Kelowna market was going to crash. He said he did so, because for years now that kid has been asking him about the impending crash. We laughed and had a couple of beers and toasted to being home owners, then ordered shots and toasted to the renters that pay us to live in our homes. I wasn't going to mention it but since seeing your post it all makes sense now.

Saw a few sold signs on houses around Kelowna, even in winter during the down swing it appears people are buying houses... seems they want to not rent. Huh.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Mar 8th, 2018, 8:07 am

forum wrote:It's over. Canada Housing is done.

https://www.curbed.com/2018/3/7/17085794/canada-housing-market-collapse

I'd hate to be a Canadian holding debt on multiple properties right now. Especially rental properties.

Complete yard sale happening with Canadian properties right now.


Really? Even though you have said the same thing for years, today is the day you are right......broken clock day has arrived? Hmmm our local stats don’t agree.....and the article you quoted says, in the first sentence, that everything you have said in the past few years was wrong.

Of course you would hate to be a Canadian with multiple properties, since you have no possible way of affording them.

As for the complete yard sale with Canadian properties, that is really what happens when you sell a property....you buy or sell the complete yard.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Mar 8th, 2018, 10:25 am

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Mar 8th, 2018, 11:28 am

Looks like the investors (You know, the people with the REAL money) don't agree with the doomsayers outlook.


Strip malls sell for $85M
Wayne Moore - Mar 8, 2018 / 11:01 am | Story: 220621

Vancouver real estate investors are bullish on the Okanagan.

Peterson Group and Premise Properties have ponied up a combined $85 million to purchase the Dilworth Shopping Centre in Kelowna and Vernon Square retail development.

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust sold the shopping centres as part of a sell-off of 100 properties in smaller and secondary markets across the country.

Dilworth Centre sits on 14 acres along Highway 97, just past Orchard Park. Among the higher-profile tenants are Safeway, Jysk, Staples, Boston Pizza and TD Bank.

Vernon Square is also situated along Highway 97, just below Kal Tire Place. It includes London Drugs, Prospera Credit Union and White Spot. A Safeway store in the shopping centre is owned separately and is not part of the sale.

“The assets just fit well into who we are, and what our strategy has always been, which is looking for value and opportunities,” said Darren Wong, Peterson Group’s director of investments.

“We were able to purchase the properties and get value,” said Justin Pollard, Premise Properties’ vice-president.

In Vancouver, you are typically overpaying for development ... which makes the returns really skinny and the costs really high.”

The Kelowna property is also positioned for future redevelopment into a mixed-use site, Pollard said.

“That was another one of the solid reasons why we bought the property, it’s 14 acres,” he said. “There is a lot of opportunity there, we feel, to have a good mix.”

He said Vernon Square would likely remain strictly a shopping centre for the foreseeable future.


https://www.castanet.net/news/Business/ ... ll-for-85M
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby atenbacon » Mar 8th, 2018, 5:23 pm

You have to keep an open mind until it is proven one way or the other. You just can't take the T.V. or internet word on it.

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby normaM » Mar 8th, 2018, 5:31 pm

Bacon - hahahaha. Oh forum has found the attention he seems to need. Mothers Day his mom sending us flowers :)
People need a place to live.. the market going to tank and we be wiped out about as fast as Wallyworld going to lower their prices more than a dime
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Mar 8th, 2018, 8:42 pm


As usual your one-line interpretation has nothing to do with the link. Good try though!! [icon_lol2.gif] [icon_lol2.gif]
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Mar 9th, 2018, 8:05 am

People make mistakes.

Such as creating an alternative identity on the Castanet forums and unknowingly logging in to their old account and posting as if nobody notices.

There are bigger mistakes being made recently by Canadians. And that is purchasing Okanagan Real Estate.

As the Great Canadian Housing Crash Continues, buyers remorse is starting to set in.
Home sellers nervously idle down the block in their leased vehicles (paid for by their HELOC) for some sucker to take their financial blunder off their hands. But it's not happening. Their stuck in the mud and their life savings just got drained by Okanagan Real Estate.

Traditional Realturds are starving. The 2% guys are ruining the party. But when you start losing money on a single asset, you want to pay your salesperson the least amount possible. So 2% it is.

Financial prudence isn't taught in Canadian schools, and it shows. People that got caught up in the Real Estate frenzy last year in Toronto just took a $110,000 loss on their purchase. Yes, houses do depreciate naturally by weather and time, but market forces can be brutal.

What goes up must come down. People think "My house went up 30% last year, so if it goes down 30% theirs no loss.
Another example of their financial ignorance.

Too bad people didn't take the windfall gain last year and sold when I told them to. Now they wear the handcuffs for the remainder of their mortgage. Got help you if you have a HELOC.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Mar 9th, 2018, 8:43 am

forum wrote:People make mistakes.

Says the king of erroneous postings. I haven’t seen this level of ignorance for a long long time......hmmmm....since static was posting.



Such as creating an alternative identity on the Castanet forums and unknowingly logging in to their old account and posting as if nobody notices.

Speaking of........



There are bigger mistakes being made recently by Canadians. And that is purchasing Okanagan Real Estate.

You’ve been making the same statements for years, all while the prices were running up and you were denying it.......is this finally the time when you are coincidentally right, señor broken clock?


As the Great Canadian Housing Crash Continues, buyers remorse is starting to set in.

Hmmmm, provide data to show we have entered a housing crash here since you have been posting and claiming this for years.


Home sellers nervously idle down the block in their leased vehicles (paid for by their HELOC) for some sucker to take their financial blunder off their hands. But it's not happening. Their stuck in the mud and their life savings just got drained by Okanagan Real Estate.

Nope, those are renters who have been evicted trying to find a replacement home.



Traditional Realturds are starving. The 2% guys are ruining the party. But when you start losing money on a single asset, you want to pay your salesperson the least amount possible. So 2% it is.

I believe you can pay far less than that with some companies. Or do it yourself is always an option.


Financial prudence isn't taught in Canadian schools, and it shows. People that got caught up in the Real Estate frenzy last year in Toronto just took a $110,000 loss on their purchase. Yes, houses do depreciate naturally by weather and time, but market forces can be brutal.

And the ones here had that amount as a gain......why the fascination with Toronto when the thread is clearly about our area?


What goes up must come down. People think "My house went up 30% last year, so if it goes down 30% theirs no loss.
Another example of their financial ignorance.

While there will always be up and down periods in the real estate cycle, the overall trend is always upward. That merely shows some your financial ignorance (along with grammatical ignorance) if you don’t recognize that.


Too bad people didn't take the windfall gain last year and sold when I told them to. Now they wear the handcuffs for the remainder of their mortgage. Got help you if you have a HELOC.

Interesting that you recognize there was is a windfall gain, yet for years you have been saying the market has crashed and has been declining. Which is it?


Last edited by LANDM on Mar 9th, 2018, 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Hassel99 » Mar 9th, 2018, 8:51 am

forum wrote:People make mistakes.

Such as creating an alternative identity on the Castanet forums and unknowingly logging in to their old account and posting as if nobody notices.

There are bigger mistakes being made recently by Canadians. And that is purchasing Okanagan Real Estate.

As the Great Canadian Housing Crash Continues, buyers remorse is starting to set in.
Home sellers nervously idle down the block in their leased vehicles (paid for by their HELOC) for some sucker to take their financial blunder off their hands. But it's not happening. Their stuck in the mud and their life savings just got drained by Okanagan Real Estate.

Traditional Realturds are starving. The 2% guys are ruining the party. But when you start losing money on a single asset, you want to pay your salesperson the least amount possible. So 2% it is.

Financial prudence isn't taught in Canadian schools, and it shows. People that got caught up in the Real Estate frenzy last year in Toronto just took a $110,000 loss on their purchase. Yes, houses do depreciate naturally by weather and time, but market forces can be brutal.

What goes up must come down. People think "My house went up 30% last year, so if it goes down 30% theirs no loss.
Another example of their financial ignorance.

Too bad people didn't take the windfall gain last year and sold when I told them to. Now they wear the handcuffs for the remainder of their mortgage. Got help you if you have a HELOC.



Na..

Good try tho.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Mar 9th, 2018, 10:52 am

Moderation:

BC Home Sales to Fall
https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-220698-3-.htm#220698

Home sales forecasted to drop for second year in a row, while home completions will surge over the next few quarters (60,000 new units, 15,000 more than previous high in 2008).

The natural forces acting to pull the market back into balance would have been in motion before the NDP expanded their envy taxes on real estate. I wonder if these forecasts made in the article take these new rules into consideration, or if they are simply extending a trend line?

2016 was a visibly strong year for RE in the Okanagan, but I’m a bit surprised about the magnitude of sales declines in 2017 in comparison. First half of 2017 was strong, with a deceleration in the second half minus a spike in the last 2 months for people beating the B20. I don’t think the -8.6% estimate for sales declines for 2018 will be a low-enough estimate. Fewer sales will impact those employed in the sales process, as well as the transfer taxes collected, but it sounds like the 60,000 homes under construction will buoy the construction sector for a few quarters.

Makes one wonder how much the home construction figures will decline from 60,000 once these new rules and the declining demand kicks in. Houses are usually planned several months to a year or more in advance of construction, so the construction figures will be a lagging indicator.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby atenbacon » Mar 9th, 2018, 8:54 pm

domain wrote:Moderation:

BC Home Sales to Fall
https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-220698-3-.htm#220698

Home sales forecasted to drop for second year in a row, while home completions will surge over the next few quarters (60,000 new units, 15,000 more than previous high in 2008).

The natural forces acting to pull the market back into balance would have been in motion before the NDP expanded their envy taxes on real estate. I wonder if these forecasts made in the article take these new rules into consideration, or if they are simply extending a trend line?

2016 was a visibly strong year for RE in the Okanagan, but I’m a bit surprised about the magnitude of sales declines in 2017 in comparison. First half of 2017 was strong, with a deceleration in the second half minus a spike in the last 2 months for people beating the B20. I don’t think the -8.6% estimate for sales declines for 2018 will be a low-enough estimate. Fewer sales will impact those employed in the sales process, as well as the transfer taxes collected, but it sounds like the 60,000 homes under construction will buoy the construction sector for a few quarters.

Makes one wonder how much the home construction figures will decline from 60,000 once these new rules and the declining demand kicks in. Houses are usually planned several months to a year or more in advance of construction, so the construction figures will be a lagging indicator.


"It estimates the average price for a home in B.C. is forecast to increase 6.0 per cent to $752,000 this year, and a further 4.0 per cent to $781,800 in 2019."

So, decreased demand and still increases in price, as has been the case for... well... a really long time in some circles.. Weird you would read right past that little tid-bit, considering how much you seem to like crunching the statistics in an article. I guess looking at one scenario would lead one to a pretty specific conclusion once one has decided to ignore any scenario that contradicts their point of view.

Sounds like those hoping for a drop are sadly going to have to keep waiting... again... just like the last couple of treads on housing posted in 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and here we are once again looking at gosh another scary situation... maybe for someone possible in the near future, or far from now, or some time some where maybe.

Whatever... I'm going to do my usual not worrying about it.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby atenbacon » Mar 9th, 2018, 9:09 pm

domain Feb 15th, 2018, 10:00 am wrote:Anyway, we need another month or two to see a clearer picture.


Still not clear, maybe another six days or a month to see a clearer picture? Remind me again, that was when you would be able to see that Kelowna would be obliterated similar to the U.S. housing crisis? Or that Kelowna would be harmed in a major national correction of housing prices? Or was it looking like bumpy seas ahead?

Who knows right? It's just the last article you quoted from stated predicted increases in price which would be the opposite of your prediction... so... yeah. Maybe we'll just keep waiting.

Broken clock seems right as an analogy. Love the multiple predictions with no clear actual picture... lol.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Mar 10th, 2018, 12:30 am

Dear atenbacon,

"So, decreased demand and still increases in price, as has been the case for... well... a really long time in some circles.. Weird you would read right past that little tid-bit, considering how much you seem to like crunching the statistics in an article. I guess looking at one scenario would lead one to a pretty specific conclusion once one has decided to ignore any scenario that contradicts their point of view."

There were 2 reasons why I didn't bother mentioning the estimates on average sales price:

1) The average does not tell you if the price of homes are increasing or decreasing, it merely tells you the result of the total sales in dollars divided by the number of units sold in the category of interest. The average can be distorted in a positive or negative manner depending on the quantity of the units being sold in various price ranges. Would it be fair to pronounce the death of the market if the average sales price decreased because a bunch of low-end houses change hands to drag-down the average? No. And that is because the average sales price is a meaningless figure in determining whether house prices are appreciating or depreciating. Now if you talk about YoY changes in assessments, then you get some better information about the appreciation of real estate, at least as far as the tax estimators are concerned.

2) I did not "read past that little tid-bit" on average prices in the article. Prices were not the focus of my observation. If you re-read my post, you can see that I only mentioned sales activity and construction activity. Aside from the pointlessness of discussing average prices, my omission was deliberate for the purpose of making an explicit observation, and I was citing the relevant parts of the article that went with my observation. And if you look at how the article is written, sales and construction activity is their focus as well. The honourable mention of "average prices" at the end, was nothing more than a soothing mention of an optimistic estimate to round-off a less than glowing article. But maybe you need to re-read that again as well.

Just so you don't walk away empty handed from our exchange, and risk mischaracterizing my observation again, I am going to use an analogy for point #1 above, and why average prices were not worthy of discussing, since your comment that I have quoted tells me that you don't understand.

Lets say car a dealership in 2016 sells 10 economy cars at 20,000/ea and 5 high-end cars at 160,000/ea, for an average sales price of 66,666, and total sales of 1,000,000. The following year, the dealership sells 5 high-end cars again for 160,000/ea, but this time they only sell 5 economy cars at 20,000/ea, for an average sales price of 90,000 and total sales of 900,000. Is the dealership implicitly better off now that their average sales price has increased, despite the total sales value falling -10% along with their profits? Are the 5 salesman, who had to split the 15 sales between them (when some sell more than 3 cars each, but everyone sells at least 1 car in 2016) better off now that they split 10 sales, and some sell no cars?

This is why the average sales price of uniquely priced units in a single group is useless, especially when the unit sales are in decline and a comparison is made from one year to the next. Despite your claim, nowhere in my previous post does the average price cause a contradiction, as the point I was making was not about prices.

As for the point of my previous post, fewer sales means less business for realtors/lawyers/estimators/mortgage brokers etc, and fewer housing starts means fewer construction jobs. Fewer sales also means less transfer tax income for the government, along with less tax revenue due to the decline in business activity and employment. Less tax revenue means big deficits as the models used for the budgets did not take this reality into account. Additionally, fewer unit sales means less 'liquidity' in the RE market, which makes it harder for some people to sell their houses as there are fewer bidders.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Mar 10th, 2018, 7:26 am

domain wrote:Moderation:

BC Home Sales to Fall
https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-220698-3-.htm#220698

Home sales forecasted to drop for second year in a row, while home completions will surge over the next few quarters (60,000 new units, 15,000 more than previous high in 2008).

The natural forces acting to pull the market back into balance would have been in motion before the NDP expanded their envy taxes on real estate. I wonder if these forecasts made in the article take these new rules into consideration, or if they are simply extending a trend line?

2016 was a visibly strong year for RE in the Okanagan, but I’m a bit surprised about the magnitude of sales declines in 2017 in comparison. First half of 2017 was strong, with a deceleration in the second half minus a spike in the last 2 months for people beating the B20. I don’t think the -8.6% estimate for sales declines for 2018 will be a low-enough estimate. Fewer sales will impact those employed in the sales process, as well as the transfer taxes collected, but it sounds like the 60,000 homes under construction will buoy the construction sector for a few quarters.

Makes one wonder how much the home construction figures will decline from 60,000 once these new rules and the declining demand kicks in. Houses are usually planned several months to a year or more in advance of construction, so the construction figures will be a lagging indicator.

Your characterization of the spike in the last two months is not necessarily correct since preapprovals are allowed to be honoured. There are people who are starting to run out of time very soon.
Also, to give quick stat comment on your characterization of 2017, total residential unit sales were down ytd over 2016 at the end of June by 14.86%. At the end of October, it was -14.45% and by the end of December it was down 12.69%.
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