Central Okanagan housing market thread

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Vacancyrate » Aug 21st, 2018, 11:23 am

https://betterdwelling.com/canadians-wi ... r-a-month/

Canadians Withdraw Another $2 Billion In Home Equity Over A Month

The balance of personal loans secured by residential real estate hit a new record high. The outstanding balance hit $258.97 billion of the total in June, up $2.169 billion from the month before. That brings the annual pace of growth to 5.52%, tapering to the lowest pace of growth since May 2017. Despite being a lowest relative pace of growth, that’s still a lot of HELOCs


Meanwhile business is deleveraging themselves.

Business loans secured by residential real estate made a massive decline. The balance reached $27.84 billion in June, down $203 million from the month before. The annual pace of growth is now in decline, falling a whopping 23.16% from last year.


Canadian household dept now sitting at 100% of our GDP.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Aug 21st, 2018, 11:38 am

Reading the headlines only does not qualify as "reading" the news. The article is about Canadian consumers in general, and has nothing to do with the local real estate market. It is about poor financial decisions made by 1/2 of Canadians in general. There is no fixing stupidity and the people that are taking on debt.

Same goes for those that choose to extend their limits of credit beyond their ability to repay. That is their choice. Neither of those articles focus on the Okanagan and the price of real estate. Both articles focus on the choices that 1/2 Canadians have made and they are now in trouble for those decisions.

maybe read the articles in their entirety before relying on them as evidence to support your claim.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:07 pm

Cut & paste from the Financial Post link:
Financial planners generally recommend three to six months as a hedge against job loss or other setbacks. A minority do: 14 per cent have two to three months, 9 per cent four to five months, and 13 per cent six months to a year. Only 15 per cent have a year or more and predictably, 56 per cent of the latter group are age 55 or older.

Unfortunately, the young are in a “really precarious situation,” Bozinoff said. More than a third (35 per cent) of Millennials aged 18 to 34 have no savings at all, while another 10 per cent have less than a month.


Therefore: it's the younger generation that are making the biggest errors and dragging the Canada wide statistics down with them. Here is a clip from Stats Can. to support the fact that it is the youngin's that don't hold real estate that dramaticly changes the stats.
Capture.JPG


Don't blame prices of the Okanagan housing for the poor choices of the young.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Even Steven » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:23 pm

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/busines ... -and-burn/

The realtor says he was tipped off not by industry statistics, but by chatter across backyard fences. “When you hear about a homeowner who thinks his neighbour got too much money when he sold his house, you know there’s something going on,” says Roy. “That was the first clue.”

The next shoe to drop was a handful of homes in desirable west side neighbourhoods that took a few extra days to sell. Sensing a shift in the market, Roy put his own house up for sale in June and penned a blog posting the following month that advised people to “cash out.” Though he was criticized by fellow agents for breaking rank, Roy says he now feels vindicated after watching Vancouver home sales crumble to their lowest point in more than decade, with prices falling 3.5 per cent since hitting a high last May. The lesson? Recognizing a looming real estate downturn is more art than science; once it shows up in the numbers, it’s too late to do much about it. “One day the phone just stops ringing,” Roy says. “Then you’re in it.”

A housing correction—or, possibly, a crash—is no longer coming. It’s here. And you don’t have to own a tiny $500,000 condo in downtown Toronto or a $1.3-million bungalow in Vancouver to get hurt. With few exceptions, the impact will be indiscriminate as the euphoria of rising house prices is replaced by fear. The only question now is how bad things will get. If the decline picks up speed, as many believe it will, there could be a nasty snowball effect. Construction jobs will be lost. Homeowners will end up underwater. Consumers may stop spending. “I’m getting very nervous,” says David Madani, an economist at Capital Economics, who has been predicting a drop in housing prices of up to 25 per cent in Canada. “I know I’m a bear, but the housing market itself has the potential to put us in a recession, let alone what’s happening in Europe and the U.S.”


Seems like everything is pointing to a housing crash for sure.

No way to avoid it.

Such compelling writing.

Oh wait, it's from 2013.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Jonrox » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:31 pm

Wow, did that story ever miss the mark. It's embarrassing how wrong that was.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Vacancyrate » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:31 pm

Even Steven wrote:Seems like everything is pointing to a housing crash for sure.

No way to avoid it.

Such compelling writing.

Oh wait, it's from 2013.


Muddying the water doesn't change the current state of real estate.

Who would have ever thought the BC Government would end up giving subprime loans to first time buyers to keep the machine running at full steam? Current governments are trying to cool the market, it's no secret that previous governments were pouring gasoline on it.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Vacancyrate » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:32 pm

Jonrox wrote:Wow, did that story ever miss the mark. It's embarrassing how wrong that was.


Bear trap.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:50 pm

WHEN was the last housing CRASH in the Central Okanagan?
Has it EVER happened before?

I know that there was a global recession that affected the housing prices in this area, but it was minor in comparison to a "depression".
We did recover from both the depression and the short lived recession. In fact, housing prices not only recovered, they accelerated to surpass what they would have been if neither of those two events happened.

What is happening right now is "a correction". For lack of a better analogy, it's like seeing a well dressed woman wearing really nice looking high heels, walking down the sidewalk, and she gets a heal into a crack in the sidewalk. She may stumble a little, but recovers and continues on with a greater stature and a better awareness of where she puts her feet.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Aug 21st, 2018, 12:58 pm

Vacancyrate wrote:Muddying the water doesn't change the current state of real estate.

Who would have ever thought the BC Government would end up giving subprime loans to first time buyers to keep the machine running at full steam? Current governments are trying to cool the market, it's no secret that previous governments were pouring gasoline on it.


Do you understand what a subprime mortgage is ?

A subprime loan is available to potential borrowers with poor credit scores. Such people are referred to as subprime borrowers. Borrowers considered risky to lenders can receive financing for a home mortgage through a subprime loan, but the loan generally carries a higher interest rate.


The government is tightening the mortgage rules NOT relaxing them.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Vacancyrate » Aug 21st, 2018, 1:29 pm

alanjh595 wrote:Do you understand what a subprime mortgage is ?


Alan please settle down. You're debating with yourself here.

In 2016 the BC Liberal Government offered sub-prime loans to first time house buyers in BC.

https://www.moneysense.ca/news/interest ... me-buyers/
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouv ... ate-in-q1/

This was like throwing a 35,000 dollar can of gasoline on a out of control real-estate wildfire.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby W105 » Aug 21st, 2018, 1:56 pm

actually I think the "2nd instant mortgage on your first mortgage " (aka highway to hell) deal was offered at $37,500...great idea to pump the insane debt heavy RE Market in 2016...(said nobody who has brains)

2 yrs later we now have the B20 rules, stress test and higher interest rates...

crazy what can happen in 700 + days...

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Jonrox » Aug 21st, 2018, 2:07 pm

One of you is talking sub-prime loans and the other is talking sub-prime mortgages.

The BC government was not offering sub-prime mortgages.

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Aug 21st, 2018, 2:31 pm

Vacancyrate wrote:
alanjh595 wrote:Do you understand what a subprime mortgage is ?


Alan please settle down. You're debating with yourself here.

In 2016 the BC Liberal Government offered sub-prime loans to first time house buyers in BC.

https://www.moneysense.ca/news/interest ... me-buyers/
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouv ... ate-in-q1/

This was like throwing a 35,000 dollar can of gasoline on a out of control real-estate wildfire.


That article was just a suggestion to help new/potential homeowners enter the market. Was it ever instituted ?
https://www.moneysense.ca/news/interest ... me-buyers/

The very second paragraph to the second article, contradicts your terminology and use of the phrase "Sub-prime mortgages".
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouv ... ate-in-q1/

You really should read past the headlines and understand the entire contents of the articles that you are using for links.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Vacancyrate » Aug 21st, 2018, 3:36 pm

W105 wrote:actually I think the "2nd instant mortgage on your first mortgage " (aka highway to hell) deal...


Thanks for that laugh out loud.

42,000+ people signed up in 3 years to drive the highway to hell.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Jflem1983 » Aug 21st, 2018, 3:47 pm

Vacancyrate wrote:
W105 wrote:actually I think the "2nd instant mortgage on your first mortgage " (aka highway to hell) deal...


Thanks for that laugh out loud.

42,000+ people signed up in 3 years to drive the highway to hell.



Thats hardly anyone. Big deal 40k. Borrow it on the street if u have to. Get into a house
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