Central Okanagan housing market thread

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Feb 9th, 2018, 7:44 am

Landm,

I appreciate your feedback. I am certainly no statistician, and I was only able to use the data for listings from realtor.ca for the Kelowna ‘view’. Leaving the default filters set, those general figures will be for all listings in the default region for the Kelowna search, as provided by realtor.ca. Without real-time data provided to the public, this is the best method that I could come up with to determine what the number of listings is doing in the area (not for specific property type).

The method is crude, but I didn’t think it would be flawed to the point of nullifying my intent of determining the trend in total listings.

I would sincerely appreciate it if you can elaborate on the issues you see, specifically regarding the “omitted critical datasets”, as it sounds like you have some experience with statistics.

Thanks.

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Feb 9th, 2018, 8:41 am

Just a friendly reminder not to purchase Canadian Real Estate.

It's a ticking time bomb.

Unfortunately, anyone that purchased Canadian Real Estate in the last couple years is pooched.

Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster


Canada is in the grip of a housing crisis more severe, by some measures,than anywhere else in the world. Household debt now amounts to more than 100 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, one of the highest of any developed nation. House prices have raced ahead of wages for years, boosted by loose lending, low interest rates and lax controls on foreign money.


https://www.ft.com/content/8cb9f0fa-0a61-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Feb 9th, 2018, 8:46 am

Your method would work better, for your general purposes, if you took the number listings each day and moved forward. Looking backwards does not give numbers of active listings because it doesn’t take into account properties that have sold, expired, removed from market etc.
It would only give a somewhat general feel for "activity" on the listing side rather than anything that you could analyze further. And that activity, with no verification of accuracy, does not appear unusual to me in a market our size and for the time of year.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Feb 9th, 2018, 8:53 am

Let get a quick recap of the crashes that are accelerating and experiencing increased volatility:

1) cryptocurrencies

2) stock market

3) housing market

Which market is next to get dragged out to the woodshed?
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Feb 9th, 2018, 8:56 am

Hopefully none of the $88,000 Canadians just purchased overpriced Canadian Real Estate.

Canadian economy lost 88,000 jobs in January


http://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4527905
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby domain » Feb 9th, 2018, 9:55 am

Landm,

Since the ‘listed since’ query is executed against the current active listings, and does not include past sales or any removed listings, I agree that it will mainly be useful for analyzing the current stock of listings.

It would require some diligence, but one could track the total listings going forward for a trend of the net daily changes of all listings including those removed - that would make for a complete picture for a trend. The method of analyzing the current inventory by looking back is still valuable in terms of determining when and how quickly the current inventory has been accumulated; it may even give indication of the quality of the inventory (junk listings piling up) or other factors.

It would be excellent to have the actual listing data available to the public, as there would be a ton of information to extract in terms of quality, momentum etc. If that were the case, we would all benefit by getting a true picture of real estate to help people make good decisions and to determine real value. It would also provide better facts for the arguments made on both sides of this forum. Thanks.

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Feb 9th, 2018, 2:36 pm

forum wrote:Let get a quick recap of the crashes that are accelerating and experiencing increased volatility:

1) cryptocurrencies

2) stock market

3) housing market

Which market is next to get dragged out to the woodshed?


4) LANDM being taken out to the woodshed by domain.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby slootman » Feb 9th, 2018, 3:41 pm

Using a mere 8 days of data is too small of a sample size to be of any significance

Assumption that an increase at a given time of year is an anomaly, when in fact housing stats are historically seasonally cyclic

Jan-Feb 2018 increase looks pretty much the same as those months a year ago

Great attempt and the initiative is refreshing. Probably need a bit more digging to get to some meat. If you really want to go stats crazy toss me a PM.

Be careful not to fall into the same trap as some others have, whereby a very small data point is extrapolated to come to a desired conclusion.

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Feb 9th, 2018, 5:23 pm

forum wrote:Let get a quick recap of the crashes that are accelerating and experiencing increased volatility:

1) cryptocurrencies

2) stock market

3) housing market

Which market is next to get dragged out to the woodshed?


Unfortunately, for you, the housing market has neither crashed, nor accelerating in a crash, nor experiencing increased volatility here, over the past number of years that you have been claiming that it is occuring.

How’s that woodshed that you have been living in, both mentally and physically, for the past few years?
Must be rough. [icon_lol2.gif] [icon_lol2.gif]
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby jsytnick » Feb 9th, 2018, 6:52 pm

If an average 100k increase in value for a Kelowna home year over year is his idea of a crash, well, let it crash.
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby forum » Feb 10th, 2018, 11:02 am

If houses prices have increased 100K in 1 year in Kelowna, it shouldn't be long until local wages match up to that. Stay positive!
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby alanjh595 » Feb 10th, 2018, 11:47 am

Did wages go up in Toronto or Vancouver?
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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby Ka-El » Feb 10th, 2018, 11:59 am

forum wrote:If houses prices have increased 100K in 1 year in Kelowna, it shouldn't be long until local wages match up to that.

Yes, because that has definitely been the trend (wages keeping up with costs) over the last 50 years.
research shows right-wingers tend to be less intelligent than left-wingers, and people with low
childhood intelligence that tend to grow up to be conservative with racist and homophobic views

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby LANDM » Feb 10th, 2018, 5:43 pm

forum wrote:Just a friendly reminder not to purchase Canadian Real Estate.

It's a ticking time bomb.

Unfortunately, anyone that purchased Canadian Real Estate in the last couple years is pooched.

Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster


Canada is in the grip of a housing crisis more severe, by some measures,than anywhere else in the world. Household debt now amounts to more than 100 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, one of the highest of any developed nation. House prices have raced ahead of wages for years, boosted by loose lending, low interest rates and lax controls on foreign money.


https://www.ft.com/content/8cb9f0fa-0a61-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2

Well, thank god that we have a Swiss banking commentator, along with an anonymous child-like poster saying our prices are high.

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Re: Central Okanagan housing market thread

Postby jsytnick » Feb 11th, 2018, 1:40 pm

forum wrote:If houses prices have increased 100K in 1 year in Kelowna, it shouldn't be long until local wages match up to that. Stay positive!


Because local wages are the only factor driving house prices....

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