Who do you think will win the provincial election in May?

Discuss the upcoming elections here.

Which party do you think will win the provincial election in May?

BC Liberals
58
76%
NDP
18
24%
 
Total votes: 76

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The Green Barbarian
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by The Green Barbarian »

Rwede wrote:Real Per Capita GDP Growth 1992 - 2000

Nfld: 33.6%
SK: 27.3%
AB: 27%
ON: 24.2%
PQ: 22.3%
NB: 21.6%

PEI: 18.6%
MB: 17.5%
NS: 16.2%

BC: 5.3%


Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts


That is just brutal. The NDP are even worse than I remember, and that's saying something!
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George+
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by George+ »

This does not compare anything.
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Urbane
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Urbane »

*removed*
Last edited by ferri on Mar 31st, 2017, 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: off topic
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GordonH
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by GordonH »

Knowing how the 2 parties that have run this Province over the last 30+ years, I can see a protest vote to Green party happening.

Liberals/Social Credit
NDP
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Urbane
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Urbane »

    George+ wrote:This does not compare anything.
It was comparing all the provinces and BC was dead last.
gordon_as
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by gordon_as »

Urbane wrote:
    George+ wrote:This does not compare anything.
It was comparing all the provinces and BC was dead last.


(per capita) NFLD was first , probably because 90,000 people left ( Liberal government )
Probably didn't have anything to do with this either did it ? :
Bringing the field on production was a long time coming. It involved settling a jurisdictional dispute between Newfoundland and Canada over ownership of offshore minerals and other issues. Lengthy fiscal negotiations began in 1985, shortly after Mobil submitted a development plan to the two governments. Not until 1988 did the two governments reach agreement on the development with Mobil, Petro-Canada, Chevron Corporation and Gulf Oil – the companies with interests in the field.

About 650,000 came to BC during same time period.
Last edited by gordon_as on Mar 31st, 2017, 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
gordon_as
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by gordon_as »

Rwede wrote:Real Per Capita GDP Growth 1992 - 2000

Nfld: 33.6%
SK: 27.3%
AB: 27%
ON: 24.2%
PQ: 22.3%
NB: 21.6%

PEI: 18.6%
MB: 17.5%
NS: 16.2%

BC: 5.3%

Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts


Here's a visual for you RW : ( and it's from this millennium ) note : Frobisher bay about = to BC
You might also want to research the Median after tax income for families in Canadian provinces.
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Urban Cowboy
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Urban Cowboy »

You know that visual shows the condition BC was left in by the NDP right?

It says 2002 Canadian dollars. :biggrin:


ETA: It is a timely reminder though, that that's exactly what we could head back to, if misguided ones favor the NDP. :200:
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Urbane
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Urbane »

Have any of you changed your mind as to which party is likely to win? It's interesting that each time the NDP has won, three times in all, the centre/centre right has been divided. In 1972 when the WAC Bennett government was defeated after twenty years in office the combined votes of the Liberals (under David Anderson) and the Conservatives (under Derril Warren) accounted for just under 30% of the vote. In 1991 Rita Johnston's Socreds went down to defeat with the help of Gordon Wilson and the Liberals taking 25% of the vote.

And in 1996 Jack Weisberger's Reform Party and Gordon Wilson's Progressive Democrats took about 15% of the vote. That wasn't a lot but that year the Liberals actually won the popular vote while losing the election. In an article I posted earlier a pollster suggests that the same thing could happen this year but it would be more likely that the NDP could win the popular vote but not win the most seats. The Liberals are strong in rural areas where there are fewer overall votes but the ridings are still there. Food for thought.
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Merry
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Merry »

I began the campaign thinking the Liberals were a shoe in, but after Dejong's recent public statements implying a "flip flop" on the Liberal position on the MSP, and his obvious misrepresentation of the NDP platform, I'm no longer so sure. Because both those things put the Liberals in a very bad light IMO. It certainly has made me think twice, and I can't imagine that I'm the only one.
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Urbane
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Urbane »

    Merry wrote:I began the campaign thinking the Liberals were a shoe in, but after Dejong's recent public statements implying a "flip flop" on the Liberal position on the MSP, and his obvious misrepresentation of the NDP platform, I'm no longer so sure. Because both those things put the Liberals in a very bad light IMO. It certainly has made me think twice, and I can't imagine that I'm the only one.
If I were voting mainly on honesty I'd have to go with the Greens. No question the Liberals are challenged in the honesty department but the NDP has its own issues. Horgan was asked again by a reporter yesterday how the NDP would pay for its promises and he said that everything was costed out and that a committee would be appointed to figure out how to pay for it all. He went on to say that he would live with the decision of the committee.

It's hard to be enthusiastic about voting for any of these parties but until there's what I see as a viable alternative to the Liberals I'm forced to hold my nose and vote them in again. By the way, a while back Horgan was asked if this was a must win for the NDP in order to survive and he said that he thought it was. So maybe if we defeat the NDP one more time a centrist alternative will emerge to take on the Liberals.
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erinmore3775
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by erinmore3775 »

Be fore the writ was dropped I believed that the NDP had the same chance of forming the new governments as a snowball in a very warm place. However, I misjudged the public's total distrust and disgust with the Clarke government and the Premier in particular. This election is not about party platforms, the NDP do not have one and the Liberals only offer more of the same and empty future promises, but about a desire for change.

My best guess is the following seat count Greens 4; Liberals 43; NDP 40. This would mean that the Greens would hold the balance of power. I really cannot see a Green/NDP coalition, however, I can see the Liberals trying to form a government with those numbers. This I also believe would be the best result both fiscally and environmentally for the province over the next four years.

I reside in a riding that would vote Liberal even if they ran a little black and white dog as a candidate. Therefore, I will be voting for the independent candidate. The policies and ideas this candidate will support have clearly been defined, which are in sharp contrast to either Liberal or NDP candidates.
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Urbane
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Urbane »

^^ You're brave to make a guesstimate and I bet you won't be too far off the mark. There appears to be less anger with the Liberals now than there was in 2013 (some might forget how angry the populace was with the HST fiasco and a few other things) but on the other hand there is a mood of change evident throughout North America. That makes it very hard to predict. The leaderless Conservatives are certainly not doing much to split the centre/centre right vote and most people see the economy as strong. Also, Clark has the edge in polls over Horgan in the "Who would make the best premier?" category. So at this point it looks like a toss-up to me.
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Hurtlander
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by Hurtlander »

Urbane wrote:Also, Clark has the edge in polls over Horgan in the "Who would make the best premier?" category. So at this point it looks like a toss-up to me.


It was a poll, not polls.
Regardless, I still think that part of the poll must have been a typo or some other mistake. That same poll also ranked Clark as the least popular leader, and ranked Clark as the most untrustworthy leader..what's the probability the same leader ranked the least popular and the least trustworthy would also be ranked the best premier?
hobbyguy
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Re: Who do you think will win the provincial election in May

Post by hobbyguy »

Actually Merry there is a big difference between the NDP platform and what Horgan says it is. https://action.bcndp.ca/page/-/bcndp/docs/BC-NDP-Platform-2017.pdf

It clearly says the NDP will freeze BC Hydro rates. No mention of for two years.

It clearly says they will bring in $10.day daycare - not over 10 years.

So on the first point, exactly what is the NDP plan? Freeze BC Hydro rates for 2 years and then bump them 15% in the third year? Nobody knows - and I suspect that is because the NDP don't know.

The $10 per day daycare plan is therefore meaningless to folks who vote NDP because they want that - in 10 years their kids won't need daycare!

The NDP platform is a collection bumper stickers with no substantive plan. Every time they get a substantive question, they wiggle and squirm and "oh that's not what we mean".

The Greens and Andrew Weaver say what they mean and mean what they say.
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