The polls

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Urbane
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Re: The polls

Post by Urbane »

The Greens are riding high, taking votes from the Liberals in the lower mainland and from the NDP on Vancouver Island. In fact, on Vancouver Island the Greens are in first place. Despite the strength of the Greens the Liberals are still closing the gap in the metro Vancouver area and one reason might be that voters are in favour of capping the tolls rather than scrapping them. Finally, it appears as if the undecideds are breaking toward the Liberals. Article:

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... berals-ndp
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

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As people hear more about the NDP platform they're not exactly rushing to support John Horgan. On the contrary, Liberal and Green support are on the rise. Maybe the Greens will end up being the Official Opposition?

With the provincial election now just three weeks away, a new poll has the BC Liberals and Greens chipping away at the BC NDP’s lead.

The new numbers released in the latest Mainstreet/Postmedia poll show among decided and leaning voters, the BC Liberals are up two points to 37 per cent, the NDP is flat at 39 per cent, and the Greens are up two points at 21 per cent.
http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/18/latest-poll/
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Rwede
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Re: The polls

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Urbane wrote:As people here more about the NDP platform they're not exactly rushing to support John Horgan. On the contrary, Liberal and Green support are on the rise. Maybe the Greens will end up being the Official Opposition?

With the provincial election now just three weeks away, a new poll has the BC Liberals and Greens chipping away at the BC NDP’s lead.

The new numbers released in the latest Mainstreet/Postmedia poll show among decided and leaning voters, the BC Liberals are up two points to 37 per cent, the NDP is flat at 39 per cent, and the Greens are up two points at 21 per cent.
http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/18/latest-poll/



I think those who were going to vote NDP are catching on that going back to the 1990s isn't in their best interest.

I think they're also realizing that the NDP must be soundly defeated so that voters will have a chance to vote for someone viable in 2021.

This all should have happened right after the 2013 election, as the NDP lost even worse than they did in 2009. The NDP should have been folded up and a better party could have stepped up to opposition. Unfortunately, 4 years was wasted toddling along and we find ourselves once again voting the keep the NDP out.

Be wise, vote for anyone except the NDP.
"I don't even disagree with the bulk of what's in the Leap Manifesto. I'll put forward my Leap Manifesto in the next election." - John Horgan, 2017.
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maryjane48
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Re: The polls

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Urbane
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Re: The polls

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Not so fast . . .

While British Columbians are undoubtedly dissatisfied with the Liberal government on many counts, Mr. Lyle does not believe that enmity is deeply entrenched. In his March poll, he asked those surveyed to respond to the assessment: “I am so angry at the BC Liberal party I will never vote for them again.” Just 34 per cent of respondents agreed.

“That is a pretty low number,” Mr. Lyle said in an interview. “People might be upset at the government, but how motivated are they to do something about it? That is the key question. And our poll indicated that the anger level is not very deep, so the Liberals would have to be encouraged by that.”

He said the number was also small compared with the responses in other provinces to the same question. In Quebec, for instance, it was 46 per cent, Ontario, 43 per cent, and Alberta 42 per cent. So even though 55 per cent of people polled in British Columbia said it’s time for a change, the level of anger inside that response is what campaign strategists are looking at. That will tell the parties how serious people are about going in a new direction.
Full article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/bri ... e34790526/
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fluffy
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Re: The polls

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True. Let's not forget what happened last time around. This is a game of politics, a game of manipulation of public sentiment. You've got to bet that both candidates have a few tricks up their sleeves for the coming couple of weeks.

We should also be aware that at risk of being too critical, the majority of voters do not look deeply into the real issues at stake. They will go with prevailing sentiment and strive to vote "with the winners", so this will come right down to the crunch. A shrewd candidate will have a couple of big guns to fire off close to polling time so that the sound still echoes in the voters' ears when they step into the booth to make their 'X'.
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GordonH
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Re: The polls

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Got to wonder how many of those who are polled give bs answers, just to f :cuss: kup the numbers.
Clearly thats what happened 4 years ago, so keep on staring at those poll numbers you gullible voters.
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alfred2
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Re: The polls

Post by alfred2 »

maryjane48 wrote:http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/british-columbia-election-polls/



:130:

What is the big deal, there is a 3% error thus it brings them at a tie ,i guess when your lover the ndp has no proper program u would clap at ant thing pro ndp. [icon_lol2.gif]
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fluffy
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Re: The polls

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GordonH wrote:Got to wonder how many of those who are polled give bs answers, just to f :cuss: kup the numbers.
Clearly thats what happened 4 years ago, so keep on staring at those poll numbers you gullible voters.


I don't think so GordonH, the polls were accurate last time around to a point, they just didn't account for the number of voters who were closer to "undecided" than they were to supporting the NDP as much as the polls showed. Mr. Dix made a crucial error in judgement going public on his opposition to oil pipelines, and the Liberals were on that in a flash, playing it up in the media as "anti-jobs". Even though there was considerable resistance to the thought of another term of Liberal leadership, as election day drew closer even the most uninformed voters made a connection between the NDP and fewer jobs, thus less economic progress for rank & file British Columbians.

The NDP's current platform still doesn't overcome this issue to any great extent. The public, at least so far, is not being given a clear path to prosperity through an NDP government. And they see this, choosing instead to focus on perceived Liberal financial waste and excess, saying in effect, "So what? They're worse than us when it comes to the bottom line."

Politics is not about truth, it's about what they can get the public to believe.
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

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    fluffy wrote:
    GordonH wrote:Got to wonder how many of those who are polled give bs answers, just to f :cuss: kup the numbers.
    Clearly thats what happened 4 years ago, so keep on staring at those poll numbers you gullible voters.


    I don't think so GordonH, the polls were accurate last time around to a point, they just didn't account for the number of voters who were closer to "undecided" than they were to supporting the NDP as the polls showed. Mr. Dix made a crucial error in judgement going public on his opposition to oil pipelines, and the Liberals were on that in a flash, playing it up in the media as "anti-jobs". Even though there was considerable resistance to the thought of another term of Liberal leadership, as election day drew closer even the most uninformed voters made a connection between the NDP and fewer jobs, thus less economic progress for rank & file British Columbians.
In 2013 there was considerable movement toward the end, including those undecideds that you reference, people not being totally candid, and/or a failure on the pollsters' part to identify those who would actually vote. A 9-point lead for the NDP on election eve turning into a 5-point Liberal victory was quite a turnaround. My sense is that there was more anger last time against the Liberals than there is this time but of course on here there are the usual posters who are angry with Christy Clark 100% of the time.
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GordonH
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Re: The polls

Post by GordonH »

^^^
Only 1 poll I follow, that is the ballot box. The others are just predictions.
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

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    GordonH wrote:^^^
    Only 1 poll I follow, that is the ballot box. The others are just predictions.
Here's the definitive word on which we can all agree: Sometimes the polls are right and sometimes the polls are wrong.
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Merry
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Re: The polls

Post by Merry »

The undecided vote is definitely the most important factor in any election, but so is the "soft" vote.

For example, I'm a traditional NDP voter who had pretty much decided to "hold my nose" and vote Liberal this time around, because I have concerns about radical environmentalists taking over the NDP agenda. However, since hearing how Mike DeJong wasn't entirely truthful in his representation of the NDP platform, and how the Liberals are now wobbling on what at first appeared to be a very clear decision to eliminate the MSP premium, I've now gone from a "soft" Liberal vote to a decidedly "undecided" one.

It's interesting to note that it's not Horgan or the NDP who've converted me to the "undecided" fold, but the very Party that I was originally considering voting for.

It's Liberal lies that were making me feel as though I had to "hold my nose" to vote for them, but usually you don't find out you've been lied to until AFTER the election. So finding out even BEFORE we vote that we're being lied to just put the nail in the coffin for me. And if I feel that way, I wonder how many other "soft" Liberal voters are now reconsidering?

I've always felt very strongly that the MSP premium is a regressive tax, and that health premiums should come out of general government revenue the same way other Government expenditures do. And that means paying for it via the Progressive Income Tax system, which is a much fairer way IMO. But the Liberals put down of Carole James when she suggested that is how the NDP might pay for healthcare, tells me that the Liberals have absolutely no intention of eventually eliminating MSP, because how else could they replace the lost funds if not through income tax? So clearly Christy lied once again when she said the Liberal goal was to eventually eliminate this very regressive means of funding our healthcare system. And I'm tired of being so blatantly lied to in this way. Liars like that don't deserve to be re-elected.
"In a world swathed in political correctness, the voting booth remains the final sanctuary where the people are free to speak" - Clifford Orwin
mr.bandaid
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Re: The polls

Post by mr.bandaid »

The most unpredictable deciding factor is how many show up to vote. Decided or undecided, you don't show up to vote you keep the old cake hole closed.
Never argue with an idiot, they will just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
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Re: The polls

Post by George+ »

Hmmm...

Liberal votes going to Greens in Lower Mainland.

Very interesting.

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