The polls

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lasnomadas
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Re: The polls

Post by lasnomadas »

I would like to see a minority government as well, but one where the BC Liberals end up in third place.
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Re: The polls

Post by The Green Barbarian »

lasnomadas wrote:I would like to see a minority government as well, but one where the BC Liberals end up in third place.


I wouldn't mind a minority BC Liberal government, with the Greens in second and the NDP back to their 2001 levels of 2 seats. Even though I hate to see the NDP even with only two seats.
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Re: The polls

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Mainstreet had the NDP with a double-digit lead a week ago but that lead is now only 4 points. 18 percent are still in the "undecided" category so I'd remind some NDP'ers on here that they might want to ease off on popping open the champagne just yet. As I predicted, John Horgan doesn't wear well:

BC Liberals Make Gains, But BC NDP Still Leads

May 3, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals making gains, but the NDP continues to lead in the Lower Mainland. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“Following the debate the Liberals have made up ground, primarily outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Our debate poll found higher negatives for John Horgan in the interior and the north and now we are seeing the effects.”
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/libera ... ill-leads/
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Merry
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Re: The polls

Post by Merry »

I don't think that John Horgan is the issue Urbane; I find him to be quite personable. The issue for me, and I suspect for many of the "undecided" is the NDP's position on things like Site C and the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

Much is made of the NDP's links to unions, but frankly I'm more concerned about their links to radical environmentalists. Ditto for the Greens.

I truly believe in making companies operate in an environmentally sustainable manner, and enforcing stiff penalties when deserved. But radicals seem to cross the line beyond expecting strict rules and regulations that are strictly enforced, to the point of eliminating industrial development altogether. And, as someone who believes most of our industries are an essential part of our current way of life, I simply can't go along with what I believe would hurt our economy and lower our living standards.

That said, I think the Christy Liberals are too far the other way; too quick to allow industry to "self regulate" and too lax on enforcement of the often inadequate rules we do have in place. Hence situations such as what happened at Mt. Polley, and those two saw mills that blew up.

It's a real dilemma for folks like me. And I still don't know which way I'm going to vote on the 9th.
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Re: The polls

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^^ I agree with much of what you say Merry but if the latest poll is to be believed John Horgan's standing has gone down. Saying that your promises are fully costed out, when costed out includes appointing a committee later on to figure out how to pay, is not what I would call fully costed out. I certainly agree that Site C and Kinder Morgan are big issues and Horgan and the NDP are on the wrong side of both.
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Re: The polls

Post by lasnomadas »

Good, honest comment, Merry. I'm wondering if you've heard what happened regarding the large fines that were supposed to be imposed on BC Hydro due to construction-caused river silt that was impacting the fishery in the Peace? If I recall correctly, there had been numerous threats made by DOF and/or the EAO over the past few months regarding the same thing, the last report being that they would be fined as of April 21st if they didn't clean up their act. I think there was also talk of construction being halted if the fines weren't paid.

Could it be that BC Hydro's trying to pass the buck onto one or more of their contractors?
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Re: The polls

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Interesting article here on Castanet about the latest Angus Reid poll. Looking beyond the bottom line, which is NDP 41, Liberals 40, and Green 15 you have to look at some of the other questions asked. Here's the link for those who are interested: http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads ... -final.pdf

Election race tight: poll
Wayne Moore - May 4, 2017 / 11:20 am | Story: 196194

As the provincial election campaign enters the home stretch, the race is tight.

A new Angus Reid poll suggests the governing Liberals and opposition NDP are locked in a tight race, while the BC Green Party is putting pressure on the NDP's chances at forming government.

The outcome, according to the pollster, could hinge on factors including strategic voting, complacency among soft Liberal supporters, the rate at which different age groups vote, and the distribution of party support.

Liberal leader Christy Clark was the leader most believed to be the best premier, at 28 per cent. NDP leader John Horgan had 25 per cent support, while Green Party leader Andrew Weaver had 18 per cent. However, a majority, 29 per cent, said they weren't sure.

Flipping that question around, 35 per cent believed the Liberals would provide the best government, regardless on their views of the leader. The NDP had 28 per cent, and the Greens 12 per cent. One quarter of those surveyed weren't sure.

Overall, the poll shows the Liberals and NDP with strong traditional regional support, the Liberals in the Interior and the NDP on the Lower Mainland. Neither, however, holds a lead across each region of the province.

And, while Green Party support is higher than ever, the poll says it is the shakiest of the three parties.
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Re: The polls

Post by Leifer »

If you believe the polls....we are in for a photo finish next Tuesday evening.
A tight race is good for democracy IMO. :130:

It does make me wonder though.
Why do the NDP supporters on here, who don't live in the Okanagan, bother with trying to sway people on this forum? With the NDP's South Island ridings under threat...and some of the softer Liberal ridings that could be swung over....why not focus your efforts on forums and social media in those regions?
The Okanagan is very likely going to stay Liberal....almost assuredly. Why blow your brains out here trying to sell ice to Eskimos? :135:
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Re: The polls

Post by Retrosnap »

Urbane wrote:Interesting article here on Castanet about the latest Angus Reid poll. Looking beyond the bottom line, which is NDP 41, Liberals 40, and Green 15 you have to look at some of the other questions asked. Here's the link for those who are interested: http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads ... -final.pdf

Election race tight: poll
Wayne Moore - May 4, 2017 / 11:20 am | Story: 196194

As the provincial election campaign enters the home stretch, the race is tight.

A new Angus Reid poll suggests the governing Liberals and opposition NDP are locked in a tight race, while the BC Green Party is putting pressure on the NDP's chances at forming government.

The outcome, according to the pollster, could hinge on factors including strategic voting, complacency among soft Liberal supporters, the rate at which different age groups vote, and the distribution of party support.

Liberal leader Christy Clark was the leader most believed to be the best premier, at 28 per cent. NDP leader John Horgan had 25 per cent support, while Green Party leader Andrew Weaver had 18 per cent. However, a majority, 29 per cent, said they weren't sure.

Flipping that question around, 35 per cent believed the Liberals would provide the best government, regardless on their views of the leader. The NDP had 28 per cent, and the Greens 12 per cent. One quarter of those surveyed weren't sure.

Overall, the poll shows the Liberals and NDP with strong traditional regional support, the Liberals in the Interior and the NDP on the Lower Mainland. Neither, however, holds a lead across each region of the province.

And, while Green Party support is higher than ever, the poll says it is the shakiest of the three parties.


Just finished reading the conclusions in the report.

Election results, especially from the past few years always seem to surprise the pollsters and many of the media pundits as well. After reading the summary, however, my own biased opinion is that it will be a liberal victory on Tuesday.

- The NDP has to pick up 9 seats provincially...the libs need only to hold, or limit their losses to 3 seats
- The Libs hold a commanding lead in suburbs of greater vancouver, and stand to pick up 3 seats as a result of two new seats and a retiring independant in solidly liberal ridings
- the NDP is only marginally ahead of the Libs on the island...vote splitting could conceivably result in the liberals taking a seat or two despite losing the popular vote. Vote splitting allowed the 1996 NDP to win despite losing the popular vote.

The downward trend in the polling numbers, and Horgan's continued insistence that he'll tell us how he'll accomplish things AFTER he wins, like today's announcement that he'll tell us all how he plans to stop the Trans Mountain pipeline, all point to another liberal victory. It's going to be an interesting night on Tuesday.
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Re: The polls

Post by The Green Barbarian »

all signs point to one thing - Hulk Horgan better be wearing Kevlar back armour on May 9th, because the NDP knives will be out.

I want to see if Horgan spends an entire day sitting in a library in Quesnel in the last days of the election instead of campaigning like Dix did in 2013. That was just unbelievable.
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Re: The polls

Post by George+ »

And on it goes.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... ction-poll

Clark still unpopular..could bring down the party.
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Re: The polls

Post by The Green Barbarian »

George+ wrote:
Clark still unpopular..could bring down the party.


George, time to get out of that time machine. It's not 2013 anymore.
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Re: The polls

Post by George+ »

Right.

Clark is much more unpopular.
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Re: The polls

Post by The Green Barbarian »

George+ wrote:Right.

Clark is much more unpopular.


than who? Horgan? Guess again.
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Re: The polls

Post by Hurtlander »

Leifer wrote:It does make me wonder though.
Why do the NDP supporters on here, who don't live in the Okanagan

What about those of us that don't support the Liberals or the NDP that don't live in the Okanagon, Are we allowed to post here ?

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