Who's going to win today?

[George+]

The Greens and the NDP represent 60% of voters.

They will consult before deciding.

Do not look for bogey men under every bed!

[Scott17]

The basic facts on all non synchronous electricity generation, wind, solar, tidal, are that they are expensive and MORE environmentally damaging than large scale hydro - which is synchronous. Worldwide every single non synchronous heavy grid jurisdiction that is not heavily subsidized has horrendous electricity rates.

Care to post your peer reviewed sources on this? Setting aside your bias to large scale hydro, it is demonstratively false to state that it less environmentally damaging than the other energy sources. "A recent analysis of CH4 fluxes from hydroelectric reservoirs showed that 10% of reservoirs have emission factors (gCO2e per kilowatt hour) larger than the CO2 emissions from natural gas combined cycle plants (Hertwich 2013)". Here's some peer-reviewed scholarly sources for you:

http://www.savethecolorado.org/blog/wp- ... iw1171.pdf
http://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.do ... oelect.pdf

It's also easy to argue that it is certainly not cheaper, especially if you take in to account full life cycle service and the disruption of ancillary industries and systems related to the river system that is impacted. You seem to think that subsidized energy rates are a bad thing and fail to consider that energy subsidies are made possible through cost reduction in other areas due to innovation and lower start up capital costs.

How much advanced and applied research have you put in to these industries? Having worked, and currently working, in the design and planning of various large scale energy projects across Canada, I can tell you that, for starters, solar energy is cost competitive and superior in certain cases. I know this because I see it all the time. I deal with the energy numbers, the measurement and verification, and the real costs of alternative energy systems.

I agree that hydropower has it's place and advocate for it's use when necessary, however, a grid that relies on large-scale hydro and fossil fuel cycle systems is not a robust system. A well diversified, robust, and flexible energy system is one that utilizes various forms of alternative and conventional energy systems. For base-load, advanced nuclear reactors, like III and IV generation reactors, working together with decentralized biofuel cogeneration, wind energy, medium-scale run of the river hydro, and high temp power generating geothermal, is the best option. Throw in rooftop solar and, where applicable and geographically feasible, large scale solar installations. That is how an energy grid moves forward.

This green/NDP government arrangement may or may not work out, but at least within it lies the forward thinking plans for energy innovation and diversity. Now hopefully we get to see some of that.

[Urban Cowboy]

...
Do you feel the NDP (and/or the Green/NDP partnership) offer us better security in terms of our investment?

In the short to medium term, I suspect there will be much of a muchness. I suspect that NDP/Green decisions will be made with less input (financial or otherwise) from lobbyists, which I think is a good thing.
In the long run, I actually think that the NDP and Greens will create a more prosperous future for BC. We need the investment in education that has been sorely lacking. We need better educated professionals if we are to weather the coming automation of many jobs. That's just not something the BC Liberals were tackling in the least little bit. In fact, they were doing to opposite, largely focusing on trades. There's nothing wrong with trades, semi-skilled labour, or unskilled labour, but they are at greater risk from automation than engineering, teaching, sciences, etc. Investment in education will allow us to adapt to a market we cannot yet predict with any high level of certainty.

Sorry but I call BS on your position.

I've been involved In what you'd call trades all my life, and it's people like you that keep me busy.

Also don't agree that trades are at any greater risk from automation than others. Someone still has to be able to service and maintain the machinery or equipment, and install it.

Automobiles for example have gotten highly complex over the last few decades, but regardless of how advanced, or expensive the automobile, it still can't fix itself.

With homes practically each one is different, and I still haven't seen a machine that can run all the wires, connect all the electrical panels, switches, lights, etc.

By contrast I can easily replace a teacher with Google in many instances.

I do see a need for those who possess certain positions, to actually be competent in what they do, because I have noted that times when relying on a manufacturers tech line to troubleshoot an issue, the one who is supposed to be able to help, disappears to download some document in order to provide a canned response, something that is not of much value to me, and I can easily download myself.

[Scott17]

Just spent 3 full days restructuring a business unit in anticipation of the NDGreen disaster ahead.

In a nutshell:

- cancelled $1.7 million in equipment purchases
- cancelled hiring fair scheduled for August
- gave layoff notice to 6 workers that were being trained on the now cancelled equipment purchases
- put in hiring and wage freeze in all business units
- instituted the requirement for a new review on all previously approved capital purchase budget items

This is just the start. We've been around a long time, and haven't survived this long without taking quick, firm action when there's a major downturn looming for our operations.

At a networking event last night, other business execs were saying they're doing the same thing.

Gotta feel for the workers who are going to be affected by this. Hopefully, it's just a short run of crappy ways ahead, but no one can discount the stupidity of voters and bank on it.

Perhaps it for reasons like this that there is sometimes a downturn when governments switch over? The NDP and Greens haven't even taken over and you have given them no chance to prove themselves and yet you are giving people layoff notices.

[neilsimon]

...
Sorry but I call BS on your position.

I've been involved In what you'd call trades all my life, and it's people like you that keep me busy.

For now. And lets be clear, I'm not saying that trades are all going away, or that it will happen during your career, just that many will be far more automated and less labour intensive in future. Additionally, while trades may remain less automated than other lower skilled jobs, all it takes is one or two industries to go that way and BC is seriously screwed.

Also don't agree that trades are at any greater risk from automation than others.

That may be true, though there is evidence to suggest otherwise, but people trained in a trade are more likely to have difficulty applying their skills to a different industry.

Someone still has to be able to service and maintain the machinery or equipment, and install it.

True, and I'm not predicting all trades go away, but it only takes some people to move to 3D-printed houses, etc. for there to be significant lay-offs in the building industry. Remember, I am not talking about the technology of 2017, but of 2037. That's what we need to prepare our kids for, and the one certainty is uncertainty.

Automobiles for example have gotten highly complex over the last few decades, but regardless of how advanced, or expensive the automobile, it still can't fix itself.

Yes, but they are more reliable and self-driving vehicles will be even more so. Additionally, with self-driving cars, we may find that cars become more like white-goods and ultimately relatively disposable, or at least interchangeable. The thing is we just don't know.

With homes practically each one is different, and I still haven't seen a machine that can run all the wires, connect all the electrical panels, switches, lights, etc.

Yes, but we aren't talking about 2017, but the future. You haven't seen such a machine yet, but it will come. The fact is that the more expensive the work, and more repetitive the task, the more incentive to automate it.

By contrast I can easily replace a teacher with Google in many instances.

For some stuff, but you have found the easy part of the job to replace. Can you reasonably learn multivariable calculus from it or would you need some form of teacher? Such as one who produces a youtube video, or writes an easy to understand tutorial, or even explains it face to face.

I do see a need for those who possess certain positions, to actually be competent in what they do, because I have noted that times when relying on a manufacturers tech line to troubleshoot an issue, the one who is supposed to be able to help, disappears to download some document in order to provide a canned response, something that is not of much value to me, and I can easily download myself.

True, service levels in some industries are poor at best and automation has often resulted in poorer service, but it is the way we are going and it will result in a very different looking economy in the future.

[Hurtlander]

*removed*

[neilsimon]

...
You're encouraged about less input from lobbyists. At face value, this is a good thing. But there's more than one kind of lobbying. I've been part of it, when tourism operators or ranchers were struggling to have their voices heard, and when people in rural areas were struggling to get recycling and reuse initiatives in their regions. People should be able to lobby their governments for what they want. And then there's payola. I'm all for doing away with payola, but without lobbying what I see becoming more likely is idealogues who figure they have all the answers making ill-informed decisions for the rest of us.

IMO, Lobbyists should take a back seat to experts. It's fine to highlight a problem, and even provide possible solutions but the solution should come from government appointed experts and not lobbyists.

I can't agree with you that education has been underfunded. What I've seen is the incredible waste of resources in the education system. There's absolutely no excuse for turning out professionals who are not well-educated in the systems we have. All the money in the world won't turn out better-educated ones if funding is not, in fact, where the problem lies. That would be poor investment indeed.

There is waste everywhere and education is one area, for sure. As for "turning out professionals who are not well-educated in the systems we have", yes, this is a problem, but a much bigger problem is turning out people who can't easily pick up the skills they need. The ability to self-educate is far more important than knowing any single system. The one skill we do know that university graduates are better at is moving from one industry or job type to another. Basically, they demonstrate a better ability to self-educate and adapt.

What place is there, in your world, for folk who aren't cut out for higher education? Or for folk who have no patience for sitting through years of it, just to get on with doing what they're already able to do?

Firstly, this view of the future isn't some utopian view I have. It's not pretty and it's not what I want. It's also not as scary for me as for many. Those folks who are not able to learn, to develop the mental capacity to handle more challenging mental tasks, will be screwed. Let's be honest, they often already are. Education is a life-long pursuit and it will be even more so in future. Life will be hard for those who wish to keep doing what they used to do for decades. That doesn't make me happy, far from it, but it is inevitable. I hope we develop socially to give these people fulfilling lives because without that, life is going to be hard.

I'd also remind you that not everyone believes our toddlers are better off in institutions than they are with their families. I've yet to see a government-run daycare scheme that properly supports parents who aren't falling in line with the theory that "we must institutionalize our kids so we can both work 9 to 5 weekdays", whether it's because they prefer to sacrifice and work less, or because their jobs are shiftwork or part time.

I'm all for having stay-at-home parents, I do see the benefit, but again, it isn't what I want that will come to pass, it is what is most financially beneficial for the capitalists and even economy. It is in the interests of having an efficient, productive economy to have both parents work.

It's interesting to be given a glimpse of the view from where you sit, and I thank you for sharing it. I wonder if you're genuinely able to consider the view from outside?

I do try to look outside my sphere and see things from other perspectives. I see that to a tradesman, things aren't changing rapidly, and for many, things have been slowly changing over many years and nothing major seems to be changing today. Which is very true. From that perspective, the rate of change is manageable and the resulting job is at least as demanding as before, making it hard to see how things would change the other way. I can also see the desire to keep this the way it is. It would be comfortable, but the one thing I know is that progress is driven by profit, not comfort. The industrial revolution was, and so will then coming changes be. With regards to this, every time I look at things through another's eyes, I do a sort of SWOT analysis and so often I see a technological threat which either hugely simplifies the job, turning it from a highly specialised (aka high paying) to a minimally skilled (aka minimum wage) job, or reduces the numbers of workers needed to carry out the task. Of course, everyone likes to think that the skills they bring can't be easily mimicked by a machine, which is usually true, but is becoming less and less so as time goes on. This applies to me too.

I know I could well be wrong, or the time-scales may ultimately be 100 year or more, I can't be sure, but as a technologist, I see the threat that automation presents and I see a sort of perfect storm to drive it. When we combine the rapidly developing AI sphere, with an ever increasing group of capable software engineers and scientists, and rising costs for specialised labour, the benefit of automation in many fields is growing and the cost of doing so is dropping. We know self-driving vehicles are coming. That alone will put lots of people out of work. After self-driving cars, the same techniques will be applied to many other areas and one by one jobs will be eliminated by new robots or technologies.

[Rwede]

Perhaps it for reasons like this that there is sometimes a downturn when governments switch over? The NDP and Greens haven't even taken over and you have given them no chance to prove themselves and yet you are giving people layoff notices.

The NDP have said very clearly what they are going to do.

Why should I wait for them to do it, lose money while I wait, and end up spending more to get out of commitments than if I act now? Give them a chance to cost me significantly more? Where's the rationale in that?

Successful companies don't blunder forward when new information is available.

[mr.bandaid]

Perhaps it for reasons like this that there is sometimes a downturn when governments switch over? The NDP and Greens haven't even taken over and you have given them no chance to prove themselves and yet you are giving people layoff notices.

The NDP have said very clearly what they are going to do.

Why should I wait for them to do it, lose money while I wait, and end up spending more to get out of commitments than if I act now? Give them a chance to cost me significantly more? Where's the rationale in that?

Successful companies don't blunder forward when new information is available.

Just hang in there a couple of months, this won't last. As much as I detest Christy, she and the liberals would have been much better suited to keeping the Greens in line.

[frazdog]

Rwede,
What information do you have that makes it necessary to make these changes? What products does this equipment make? I think you need to be more specific as there are many on these forums who may think you are just making this up to justify your dislike of the NDP / Green coalition.

[rustled]

...
IMO, Lobbyists should take a back seat to experts. It's fine to highlight a problem, and even provide possible solutions but the solution should come from government appointed experts and not lobbyists.

...
There is waste everywhere and education is one area, for sure. As for "turning out professionals who are not well-educated in the systems we have", yes, this is a problem, but a much bigger problem is turning out people who can't easily pick up the skills they need. The ability to self-educate is far more important than knowing any single system. The one skill we do know that university graduates are better at is moving from one industry or job type to another. Basically, they demonstrate a better ability to self-educate and adapt.

...
I'm all for having stay-at-home parents, I do see the benefit, but again, it isn't what I want that will come to pass, it is what is most financially beneficial for the capitalists and even economy. It is in the interests of having an efficient, productive economy to have both parents work.
...
I do try to look outside my sphere and see things from other perspectives. I see that to a tradesman, things aren't changing rapidly, and for many, things have been slowly changing over many years and nothing major seems to be changing today. Which is very true. From that perspective, the rate of change is manageable and the resulting job is at least as demanding as before, making it hard to see how things would change the other way. I can also see the desire to keep this the way it is. It would be comfortable, but the one thing I know is that progress is driven by profit, not comfort. The industrial revolution was, and so will then coming changes be. With regards to this, every time I look at things through another's eyes, I do a sort of SWOT analysis and so often I see a technological threat which either hugely simplifies the job, turning it from a highly specialised (aka high paying) to a minimally skilled (aka minimum wage) job, or reduces the numbers of workers needed to carry out the task. Of course, everyone likes to think that the skills they bring can't be easily mimicked by a machine, which is usually true, but is becoming less and less so as time goes on. This applies to me too.

I know I could well be wrong, or the time-scales may ultimately be 100 year or more, I can't be sure, but as a technologist, I see the threat that automation presents and I see a sort of perfect storm to drive it. When we combine the rapidly developing AI sphere, with an ever increasing group of capable software engineers and scientists, and rising costs for specialised labour, the benefit of automation in many fields is growing and the cost of doing so is dropping. We know self-driving vehicles are coming. That alone will put lots of people out of work. After self-driving cars, the same techniques will be applied to many other areas and one by one jobs will be eliminated by new robots or technologies.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I think we're on topic; for us to win, we need to understand what we need from our government, and how best to encourage them to meet our needs.

WADR to government-appointed experts, they are not necessarily those with practical experience on the ground. They also have no vested interest in moving a tourism industry forward, or improving the on-the-ground situation for ranchers, nor are they necessarily the people with the most experience and insight into how to best create a community recycling program that complements reduction initiatives. The world is full of examples of "expert" solutions that do not work, or work far less effectively than they should. Not all lobbyists are helpful, either, but I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The ability to self-educate is vital. I think it's important to move away from education as an "industry". Many of the tradespeople I know who are ready to retire have a vast amount of knowledge worth sharing, but it's retiring with them. Some (certainly not all) would be stellar teachers and mentors, but our current apprenticeship program isn't set up to take advantage.

I also know many people who are incredibly competent without formal education. My father, for example, had absolutely no patience for sitting in school and never earned a degree, but was responsible for developing and running very successful mines. Within our immediate family (three generations, parents+siblings+kids) are people with broad and diverse skillsets who'd be very likely to survive both the changes that come with advancing technology and/or a zombie apocalypse, but only two of us have a degree.

I'm all for preparing for the future, but I've yet to be convinced throwing money at will get us where we need to be.

Daycare: it isn't all about stay-at-home parenting. None of the measures I've seen address the issue for parents who work opposite shifts, single parents who work swing shifts, or any parent who works on call or part time. None of the measures I've seen address the problem of having taken the choices we had away from today's parents. It's beyond ridiculous to believe people aren't capable of taking in the neighbourhood children for a couple of hours after school as needed without some form of government licencing intervention.

Computer technology has allowed me to do what I do with greater efficiency, and opened a career path for me. The government wasn't involved with making this happen. I realize I'm fortunate to have been born into a family where adaptation was the norm.

To my mind, there's a balance between expecting our government to respond to change, and expecting them to dump our resources into pushing us in a specific direction. I take issue with any government herding us into the same fold "for our own good", and expecting us to believe "they" and the "experts" know best.

I prefer governments that remove barriers and impediments, and I tend to think the NDP/Green partnership will have a dampening effect on people's ability and willingness to self-invest. Their objective seems, to me, to be a society where everyone relies more on government.

[Scott17]

Gotta feel for the workers who are going to be affected by this.

You are criticizing the NDP/Greens for job loss and yet it you that is ultimately causing the job loss by laying people off. And why should you lose money because of this you ask? No one said you will, that is your own assumption and look at the impact you are having on the people you are laying off to save yourself money. Slight bit of hypocrisy there. Preemptively laying people off to save ones own skin based on pure speculation of economic downturn before giving the government a chance is the bottom line here. There is no evidence that this Green/NDP cooperation will have a negative impact on the economy aside from pure speculation at this point.

[The Green Barbarian]

The Greens and the NDP represent 60% of voters.

This is complete crap. The Greens wouldn't have gotten the 20% they did if people knew they would just end up kneeling before Bully-Boy and the dumpster fire NDP. Unintended consequences of a protest vote. Weaver will pay the price for this I'm afraid, but not before BC also plays an extremely steep price.

[The Green Barbarian]

Just spent 3 full days restructuring a business unit in anticipation of the NDGreen disaster ahead.

In a nutshell:

- cancelled $1.7 million in equipment purchases
- cancelled hiring fair scheduled for August
- gave layoff notice to 6 workers that were being trained on the now cancelled equipment purchases
- put in hiring and wage freeze in all business units
- instituted the requirement for a new review on all previously approved capital purchase budget items

This is just the start. We've been around a long time, and haven't survived this long without taking quick, firm action when there's a major downturn looming for our operations.

At a networking event last night, other business execs were saying they're doing the same thing.

Gotta feel for the workers who are going to be affected by this. Hopefully, it's just a short run of crappy ways ahead, but no one can discount the stupidity of voters and bank on it.

This is going on all over BC right now. Sayanora to being the best economically in Canada!

[The Green Barbarian]

Rwede,
What information do you have that makes it necessary to make these changes? What products does this equipment make? I think you need to be more specific as there are many on these forums who may think you are just making this up to justify your dislike of the NDP / Green coalition.

You don't have to think too hard here. Anyone who was involved in spooling up for Site C is now looking at laying people off in droves. Unintended consequences of a protest vote. Soooo dumb.