2018 is the worst fire season on record!

bob vernon
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by bob vernon »

We've been told for decades to expect the BC climate to change into something like the western states during the summer. It's climate change just crossing a line.

Wanna know what the western US climate is like? The LA Dodgers moved to the west coast from Brooklyn in 1958. That's 60 years ago. How many of their baseball games have been rained out in those 60 years? Three. It doesn't rain there in the summer. Only the winter. And that climate is spreading northward. Our Douglas fir vegetation type is being eliminated and mother nature would like to replace it with more Ponderosa pine which can withstand more drought. If it gets really bad, even the pines will go.

Those egghead scientists who predicted that the climate would change are looking more and more right. There's an El Nino developing in the Pacific which means a warmer winter with melting and loss of snow cover at many lower elevations through the winter. And if it's dry and hot again next summer, look out.
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Glacier
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

The 1970s, 1980, and 1990s were the three wettest decades on record. We have merely gone back to normal... and are making up for lost time.
The worst part about a 7 day lockdown is the first 4 months.
bernie428
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by bernie428 »

Glacier wrote:The 1970s, 1980, and 1990s were the three wettest decades on record. We have merely gone back to normal... and are making up for lost time.


What's going to be lost is all the forest if they don't react a little sooner! And better?
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Glacier
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

nah, they are letting the biggest fire this year burn because they know it's good. Less than 1% of the province has burned this year. That leaves 99% left to burn. 150 years ago areas of the province used to burn once every 15 years. At the current rate, it's more like 1 in 100 years.
The worst part about a 7 day lockdown is the first 4 months.
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Glacier
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Re: 2018 is now the 3th worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

Drip_Torch wrote:Hey Glacier, do you happen to know the source of the 1920 to 2017 data? I spent some time with it yesterday and I can't find anything wrong with it, but it does come with some very surprisingly low numbers for some years. I checked the web and searched it sideways, but I can't find an original source to attribute the numbers to? I seem to recall lighthouse, lightworks, or something like that and I know CBC ground the data down in a couple articles last year, but the only attributable data I can find is the set from 1950 on.

I did some Googling. All I can find is this: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2016/ ... imate.html
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Drip_Torch
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Drip_Torch »

Glacier wrote:
Drip_Torch wrote:Hey Glacier, do you happen to know the source of the 1920 to 2017 data? I spent some time with it yesterday and I can't find anything wrong with it, but it does come with some very surprisingly low numbers for some years. I checked the web and searched it sideways, but I can't find an original source to attribute the numbers to? I seem to recall lighthouse, lightworks, or something like that and I know CBC ground the data down in a couple articles last year, but the only attributable data I can find is the set from 1950 on.

I did some Googling. All I can find is this: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2016/ ... imate.html


Thanks. I eventually found "lightship" and they have updated their significant fire years map. It's a good resource for checking out what's on fire this year and comparing it to last.

https://emergency-maps.lightship.works/ ... 7Q/details

Sure would be nice to have a data source to attribute these numbers to.
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Glacier
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

Drip_Torch wrote:
Thanks. I eventually found "lightship" and they have updated their significant fire years map. It's a good resource for checking out what's on fire this year and comparing it to last.

https://emergency-maps.lightship.works/ ... 7Q/details

Sure would be nice to have a data source to attribute these numbers to.

So if they have 1922 on this map then clearly the data exists prior to 1950. Weird how the CBC keeps referring to 1950. They did this last year too until we climbed above the 1922 number, then for a day they said, "we are 2nd all time and records began in 1920".
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Eyeswideopen »

I don't understand this obesssion some seem to be having with how many hectares are burning. Aren't things like AQI and how hard it is to breathe just a wee bit more important? :dash:
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

Eyeswideopen wrote:I don't understand this obesssion some seem to be having with how many hectares are burning. Aren't things like AQI and how hard it is to breathe just a wee bit more important? :dash:

No. No one gives a crap about the AQHI. If they did they would actually give you the real reading like they did last year instead of simply 10+ like they do now even when the index is actually at 40.
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Woodenhead
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Woodenhead »

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Glacier
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

The 155 is not the air quality health index, but rather the fine particulate matter. The AQHI also takes into account ozone (O3) and NO2. This is the reason Kamloops had worse air quality last year than Prince George did this year. The fine particulate matter was worse in Prince George (hit 787) this year but the other two components were worse in Kamloops.
The worst part about a 7 day lockdown is the first 4 months.
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Woodenhead
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Woodenhead »

I didn't say it was? I simply find it better to look at multiple sources from multiple angles, so I threw that in there. Wasn't a direct reply to any particular post.
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tsayta
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by tsayta »

Where's the top 10 list for largest fire years?
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Glacier
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by Glacier »

tsayta wrote:Where's the top 10 list for largest fire years?

Easy peasy...


1) Plateau fire at 545,151 hectares in 2017 (Located west of Willams Lake and Quesnel on the Chilcotin plateau)
2) Hanceville Riske Creek fire at 241,160 hectares in 2017 (located west of Williams Lake on the Chilcotin plateau and valley)
3) Tweedsmuir Park fire at 238,000 hectares and growing in 2018 [my estimate] (located in the westernmost part of the Chilcotin plateau and up into the Rainbow Mountains)
4) Kech fire at 225,920 hectares in 1958 (located south of Watson Lake, Yukon in a Liard river tributary)
5) Elephant Hill fire at 191,865 hectares in 2017 (located around Cache Creek, Clinton, and 70 Mile House)
6) Eg fire at 182,725 hectares in 1982 (located along the Liard river and Alaska highway)
7) Chelaslie River fire at 133, 098 hectares in 2014 (located on the Nechako plateau south of Burns Lake)
8) Tee fire at in 1971at 110,419 (located in the Liard River/Alaska Highway area)
9) Wisp fire in 1950 at 90,000 hectares in BC & another 940,000 hectares in Alberta (started northeast of Fort St. John).
10) Shovel Lake fire in 2018 at 86,397 hectares and growing (east of Burns Lake on the Nechako plateau)

Runner-ups (there might be others bigger than this, but these are the next largest I can find):
Nadina Lake in 2018 at 78,002 hectares and growing (southwest of Burns Lake on the Nechako plateau)
Britney Triangle/Chilko Lake fire at 66,571 hectares in 2009 (located on the western edge of the Chilcotin plateau 200km west of Williams Lake)

Edit, oops, read your question wrong.

Here ya go...

1) 2017 = 1216053 hectares
2) 1958 = 835848 hectares
3) 2018 = 660000 hectares [my estimate]
4) 1922 = 634772 hectares
5) 1925 = 414305 hectares
6) 1930 = 402646 hectares
7) 2014 = 369169 hectares
8) 1928 = 368103 hectares
9) 1971 = 351890 hectares
10) 1982 = 348663 hectares

EDIT2: I'm guessing that there were a lot of big fires in the 1920s and 30s, but I can't find any info on them.

EDIT 3: For the hell of it, here is the complete list:

1) 2017 = 1216053 hectares
2) 1958 = 835848 hectares
3) 2018 = 660000 hectares
4) 1922 = 634772 hectares
5) 1925 = 414305 hectares
6) 1930 = 402646 hectares
7) 2014 = 369169 hectares
8) 1928 = 368103 hectares
9) 1971 = 351890 hectares
10) 1982 = 348663 hectares
11) 1950 = 343274 hectares
12) 2010 = 337149 hectares
13) 1937 = 288057 hectares
14) 1960 = 285820 hectares
15) 2015 = 280445 hectares
16) 2003 = 265053 hectares
17) 1933 = 258464 hectares
18) 2009 = 247419 hectares
19) 1929 = 243889 hectares
20) 1985 = 236252 hectares
21) 2004 = 220518 hectares
22) 1944 = 204831 hectares
23) 1940 = 198297 hectares
24) 1956 = 190060 hectares
25) 1942 = 180710 hectares
26) 1966 = 177268 hectares
27) 1935 = 176904 hectares
28) 1931 = 170790 hectares
29) 1951 = 170354 hectares
30) 1969 = 164688 hectares
31) 1924 = 162767 hectares
32) 1920 = 157762 hectares
33) 1948 = 155544 hectares
34) 1945 = 142811 hectares
35) 2006 = 139265 hectares
36) 1946 = 122780 hectares
37) 1932 = 122005 hectares
38) 1961 = 115667 hectares
39) 2012 = 111645 hectares
40) 1959 = 110735 hectares
41) 1981 = 106593 hectares
42) 1970 = 105688 hectares
43) 2016 = 100366 hectares
44) 1967 = 99016 hectares
45) 1938 = 78292 hectares
46) 1998 = 76574 hectares
47) 1990 = 75783 hectares
48) 1983 = 67378 hectares
49) 1926 = 67035 hectares
50) 1957 = 66724 hectares
51) 1980 = 65578 hectares
52) 1923 = 63778 hectares
53) 1965 = 62833 hectares
54) 1941 = 62681 hectares
55) 1952 = 61677 hectares
56) 1921 = 59017 hectares
57) 1949 = 58902 hectares
58) 1947 = 57775 hectares
59) 1976 = 57020 hectares
60) 1978 = 50081 hectares
61) 1995 = 48080 hectares
62) 1927 = 43913 hectares
63) 1943 = 38381 hectares
64) 2005 = 34588 hectares
65) 1987 = 33850 hectares
66) 1973 = 33422 hectares
67) 1992 = 30453 hectares
68) 1994 = 30310 hectares
69) 1979 = 29447 hectares
70) 2007 = 29440 hectares
71) 1972 = 26087 hectares
72) 1989 = 25380 hectares
73) 1975 = 24911 hectares
74) 1991 = 24709 hectares
75) 1936 = 22196 hectares
76) 1974 = 21728 hectares
77) 1996 = 20669 hectares
78) 1984 = 19908 hectares
79) 1939 = 19730 hectares
80) 1934 = 19372 hectares
81) 1955 = 18896 hectares
82) 1963 = 18756 hectares
83) 1962 = 18461 hectares
84) 2013 = 18259 hectares
85) 2000 = 17673 hectares
86) 1986 = 17260 hectares
87) 1953 = 15368 hectares
88) 1968 = 13519 hectares
89) 2008 = 13240 hectares
90) 2011 = 12604 hectares

91) 1999 = 11581 hectares
92) 1988 = 11482 hectares
93) 2001 = 9677 hectares
94) 2002 = 8539 hectares
95) 1993 = 5183 hectares
96) 1954 = 4172 hectares
97) 1977 = 3796 hectares
98) 1964 = 3135 hectares
99) 1997 = 2960 hectares
The worst part about a 7 day lockdown is the first 4 months.
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tsayta
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Re: 2018 is now the 3rd worst fire season on record.

Post by tsayta »

I guess there's little chance this year makes it to the #2 spot?
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