Lake Level Shoots Up

squash junky
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by squash junky »

Glacier wrote:
KenL wrote:Interesting chart that was published on Castanet regarding the sudden water influx into the lake...but is it accurate? The story indicates that the lake level rose 2.67 meters as a result of Thursday's storm. Really? That's over 8 feet!! Is that possible?

Wut? The Castanet article says it rose 0.03 m! NOT 2.67 m!!!

That means it rose 30mm,



30mm is 3cms by the way and so is 0,03 mtrs.
that's the nice thing about metric.
lesliepaul
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by lesliepaul »

alanjh595 wrote:0.03 meters = 1.18 inches. That's about this much,
[__________]

i don't have a ruler handy and your results may be different based upon your screen size and magnification level.


[__________________].............some of your lady friends may think this is 6 inches.
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alanjh595
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by alanjh595 »

lesliepaul wrote:
alanjh595 wrote:0.03 meters = 1.18 inches. That's about this much,
[__________]

i don't have a ruler handy and your results may be different based upon your screen size and magnification level.


[__________________].............some of your lady friends may think this is 6 inches.


AND this is a problem?
Bring back the LIKE button.
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Bsuds
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Bsuds »

lesliepaul wrote:
[__________________].............some of your lady friends may think this is 6 inches.


That's why they can't parallel park! :biggrin:
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Jlabute
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Jlabute »

Latest Okanagan Lake levels

7C2E77CE-AB4C-4E00-9140-F3E0B24E7CFC.jpeg
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Huxley - "For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin."
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Bsuds
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Bsuds »

IMG_20180330_181541428 (Copy).jpg
IMG_20180330_181535809 (Copy).jpg
We went to the Beach to have a look last night and they really have let lots of water out in anticipation of the run off.
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andrea-lake
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by andrea-lake »

It is good to see the lake going down but how much more does it need to be drawn down given the size of the snowpack, the level of ground water, and the potential for even more snow with a cool, rainy April? These questions are answered in the 1998 flood review report. In it, they published lake management rules developed from 80 years of experience. Extracts are posted in the forum "Monitoring the Lake to Prevent Another Flood". In brief, the rules state that when a very high freshet is expected, such as this year, the lake should be drawn down close to another foot (roughly 30 cm) from the level visible in your photos. Because the drop-off from the shore tapers off slowly, the water could be quite a bit further out from what's shown in your photos, if they draw it down to the recommended level. If they do that, the freshet will then fill the lake back up to the level where everyone can enjoy the beaches and boating without having flood damage.

On my post in the other forum there are also some graphs that will help put the lake level in perspective, if you are interested in further details.
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Anonymous123
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Anonymous123 »

We See
We Judge
We Get Muzzled
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Glacier
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Glacier »

The snowpack at CARMI and the SUMMERLAND RESERVOIR is currently at 183% of normal. That's the highest it's been since 1975.

For the Cariboo it's even crazier:
BIG CREEK = 486% of normal!
PUNTZI MOUNTAIN = 442
PAVILION = 382
NAZKO = 287
kelownaplumber86
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by kelownaplumber86 »

Glacier where ya find the snow stats for April ?? Says April 9 is when they are released what’s whiterock mnt up westside if you have the info haha thanks !
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Glacier
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Glacier »

kelownaplumber86 wrote:Glacier where ya find the snow stats for April ?? Says April 9 is when they are released what’s whiterock mnt up westside if you have the info haha thanks !

The data is already compiled, but for some odd reason they don't release it to the public until the 9th. They don't measure snow up Whiterock Mountain.

Other close by stations:
MCCULLOCH (1280 m elevation) = 201% normal (81cm deep/ 265 mm of SWE)
MONASHEE PASS (1370 m elevation) = 136% normal (138cm deep/ 440 mm of SWE)
CARMI (1250 m elevation) = 183% normal (72cm deep/ 210 mm of SWE)
BIG WHITE MOUNTAIN (1680 m elevation) = 141% normal (196cm deep/ 671 mm of SWE)
TROUT CREEK (WEST) (1430 m elevation) = 171% normal (100cm deep/ 336 mm of SWE)
SUMMERLAND RESERVOIR (1280 m elevation) = 183% normal (121cm deep/ 360 mm of SWE)
ANGLEMONT (1190 m elevation) = 151% normal (144cm deep/ 486 mm of SWE)


Highest in the province (% of normal):

BIG CREEK (1140 m elevation) = 486% normal (22cm deep/ 68 mm of SWE)
PUNTZI MOUNTAIN (940 m elevation) = 442% normal (24cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
PAVILION (1230 m elevation) = 382% normal (26cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
NAZKO (1070 m elevation) = 287% normal (45cm deep/ 132 mm of SWE)
SKINS LAKE (890 m elevation) = 259% normal (77cm deep/ 233 mm of SWE)
BIRD CREEK (1180 m elevation) = 229% normal (124cm deep/ 320 mm of SWE)
TERRACE AIRPORT (1805 m elevation) = 217% normal (62cm deep/ 182 mm of SWE)
LAC LE JEUNE (UPPER) (1509 m elevation) = 208% normal (76cm deep/ 264 mm of SWE)
MCCULLOCH (1280 m elevation) = 201% normal (81cm deep/ 265 mm of SWE)

Lowest in the province:
FORT NELSON AIRPORT (380 m elevation) = 55% normal (48cm deep/ 52 mm of SWE)
NINGUNSAW PASS (690 m elevation) = 58% normal (92cm deep/ 251 mm of SWE)
WOLF RIVER (MIDDLE) (990 m elevation) = 70% normal (111cm deep/ 430 mm of SWE)
BEAR PASS (460 m elevation) = 72% normal (126cm deep/ 460 mm of SWE)
WOLF RIVER (LOWER) (640 m elevation) = 78% normal (59cm deep/ 246 mm of SWE)
SUMMIT LAKE (1280 m elevation) = 80% normal (74cm deep/ 90 mm of SWE)
UPPER THELWOOD LAKE (990 m elevation) = 83% normal (273cm deep/ 1214 mm of SWE)
TAHTSA LAKE (1300 m elevation) = 84% normal (279cm deep/ 1006 mm of SWE)


Deepest Snowpack in the Province (SWE):
ORCHID LAKE (1190 m elevation) = 121% normal (485cm deep/ 2134 mm of SWE)
DICKSON LAKE (1160 m elevation) = 128% normal (416cm deep/ 1913 mm of SWE)
CHAPMAN CREEK (1022 m elevation) = 132% normal (462cm deep/ 1770 mm of SWE)
GROUSE MOUNTAIN ( m elevation) = 151% normal (400cm deep/ 1750 mm of SWE)
DISAPPOINTMENT LAKE (1050 m elevation) = % normal (395cm deep/ 1738 mm of SWE)
PALISADE LAKE (880 m elevation) = 130% normal (371cm deep/ 1720 mm of SWE)
STAVE LAKE (1250 m elevation) = 110% normal (353cm deep/ 1597 mm of SWE)

Lowest:
ELK RIVER ( m elevation) = 0% normal (0cm deep/ 0 mm of SWE)
FORT NELSON AIRPORT (380 m elevation) = 55% normal (48cm deep/ 52 mm of SWE)
BIG CREEK (1140 m elevation) = 486% normal (22cm deep/ 68 mm of SWE)
PAVILION (1230 m elevation) = 382% normal (26cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
PUNTZI MOUNTAIN (940 m elevation) = 442% normal (24cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
SUMMIT LAKE (1280 m elevation) = 80% normal (74cm deep/ 90 mm of SWE)
NAZKO (1070 m elevation) = 287% normal (45cm deep/ 132 mm of SWE)
kelownaplumber86
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by kelownaplumber86 »

Glacier wrote:
kelownaplumber86 wrote:Glacier where ya find the snow stats for April ?? Says April 9 is when they are released what’s whiterock mnt up westside if you have the info haha thanks !

The data is already compiled, but for some odd reason they don't release it to the public until the 9th. They don't measure snow up Whiterock Mountain.

Other close by stations:
MCCULLOCH (1280 m elevation) = 201% normal (81cm deep/ 265 mm of SWE)
MONASHEE PASS (1370 m elevation) = 136% normal (138cm deep/ 440 mm of SWE)
CARMI (1250 m elevation) = 183% normal (72cm deep/ 210 mm of SWE)
BIG WHITE MOUNTAIN (1680 m elevation) = 141% normal (196cm deep/ 671 mm of SWE)
TROUT CREEK (WEST) (1430 m elevation) = 171% normal (100cm deep/ 336 mm of SWE)
SUMMERLAND RESERVOIR (1280 m elevation) = 183% normal (121cm deep/ 360 mm of SWE)
ANGLEMONT (1190 m elevation) = 151% normal (144cm deep/ 486 mm of SWE)


Highest in the province (% of normal):

BIG CREEK (1140 m elevation) = 486% normal (22cm deep/ 68 mm of SWE)
PUNTZI MOUNTAIN (940 m elevation) = 442% normal (24cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
PAVILION (1230 m elevation) = 382% normal (26cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
NAZKO (1070 m elevation) = 287% normal (45cm deep/ 132 mm of SWE)
SKINS LAKE (890 m elevation) = 259% normal (77cm deep/ 233 mm of SWE)
BIRD CREEK (1180 m elevation) = 229% normal (124cm deep/ 320 mm of SWE)
TERRACE AIRPORT (1805 m elevation) = 217% normal (62cm deep/ 182 mm of SWE)
LAC LE JEUNE (UPPER) (1509 m elevation) = 208% normal (76cm deep/ 264 mm of SWE)
MCCULLOCH (1280 m elevation) = 201% normal (81cm deep/ 265 mm of SWE)

Lowest in the province:
FORT NELSON AIRPORT (380 m elevation) = 55% normal (48cm deep/ 52 mm of SWE)
NINGUNSAW PASS (690 m elevation) = 58% normal (92cm deep/ 251 mm of SWE)
WOLF RIVER (MIDDLE) (990 m elevation) = 70% normal (111cm deep/ 430 mm of SWE)
BEAR PASS (460 m elevation) = 72% normal (126cm deep/ 460 mm of SWE)
WOLF RIVER (LOWER) (640 m elevation) = 78% normal (59cm deep/ 246 mm of SWE)
SUMMIT LAKE (1280 m elevation) = 80% normal (74cm deep/ 90 mm of SWE)
UPPER THELWOOD LAKE (990 m elevation) = 83% normal (273cm deep/ 1214 mm of SWE)
TAHTSA LAKE (1300 m elevation) = 84% normal (279cm deep/ 1006 mm of SWE)


Deepest Snowpack in the Province (SWE):
ORCHID LAKE (1190 m elevation) = 121% normal (485cm deep/ 2134 mm of SWE)
DICKSON LAKE (1160 m elevation) = 128% normal (416cm deep/ 1913 mm of SWE)
CHAPMAN CREEK (1022 m elevation) = 132% normal (462cm deep/ 1770 mm of SWE)
GROUSE MOUNTAIN ( m elevation) = 151% normal (400cm deep/ 1750 mm of SWE)
DISAPPOINTMENT LAKE (1050 m elevation) = % normal (395cm deep/ 1738 mm of SWE)
PALISADE LAKE (880 m elevation) = 130% normal (371cm deep/ 1720 mm of SWE)
STAVE LAKE (1250 m elevation) = 110% normal (353cm deep/ 1597 mm of SWE)

Lowest:
ELK RIVER ( m elevation) = 0% normal (0cm deep/ 0 mm of SWE)
FORT NELSON AIRPORT (380 m elevation) = 55% normal (48cm deep/ 52 mm of SWE)
BIG CREEK (1140 m elevation) = 486% normal (22cm deep/ 68 mm of SWE)
PAVILION (1230 m elevation) = 382% normal (26cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
PUNTZI MOUNTAIN (940 m elevation) = 442% normal (24cm deep/ 84 mm of SWE)
SUMMIT LAKE (1280 m elevation) = 80% normal (74cm deep/ 90 mm of SWE)
NAZKO (1070 m elevation) = 287% normal (45cm deep/ 132 mm of SWE)
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kelownaplumber86
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by kelownaplumber86 »

Might be using different site but it’s on the B.C. gov site. Thanks for the stats enjoy reading them
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Glacier
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by Glacier »

kelownaplumber86 wrote:Might be using different site but it’s on the B.C. gov site. Thanks for the stats enjoy reading them

Ah, I didn't know where that site and its location.

Data:

WHITEROCKS MOUNTAIN (1789 m elevation) = 129% of normal = 670mm of SWE, 190cm of snow depth. March 1st was 120% of normal. February 1st was 119% of normal.
andrea-lake
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Re: Lake Level Shoots Up

Post by andrea-lake »

Note that as of today, May 13th, the lake has shot up 75 cm from its low point on April 27th. Between the same dates last year, the lake rose by 55 cm.

Shaun Reimer's official forecast for lake levels is embedded in the May 8th 2018 Webinar by the Okanagan Basin Water Board (See link below). Mr. Reimer's presentation begins at minute 19:00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_-LlLjOE6Y
Simply put, he is forecasting the lake to go 15 to 25 cm above Full Pool and potentially higher if rainfall is heavier than normal, although he doesn't specify how much more. In comparison, my base forecast is 36 cm above Full Pool plus or minus a 15 cm error margin. See the graph below for more details.

Reimer's May 8 forecast 3.jpg


The chart above shows where the lake is today. My forecast, based on historical and current data, is that the lake should average a 5 cm increase per day for the next 10 days, putting it at Full Pool by May 23rd. After that, the lake should rise for the next 12 days at a minimum of 3 cm on average per day, for a total of 36 cm, peaking on June 2nd at 342.84 meters. The upside error margin is 15 cm above that (if rain is heavier, or they are constrained in discharging at a faster rate at Penticton Dam, or if the snow pack is actually larger than estimated, etc.
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