Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Jlabute wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 6:08 am ...climate change which is the study of why the atmospheric temperature has increased about 0.1C per decade.
Since we're not likely to agree on anything, how about we have a little fun? Over/under bet on October Global 2 m temp and Northern Hemisphere 2 m temp anomalies?

I'm going over on 0.8° C for the 2m Global and over on 1.3°C for 2m Northern Hemisphere. It's only the 26th and anything can still happen, but I'm willing wager at the end of the month we're looking at 5 consecutive months of numbers that make your "about 0.1°C per decade" seem oh so out of touch with what is happening right now.

(Seriously, and only cause I like you, the 2m Northern is a gimme at this point) [icon_lol2.gif]
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 3:00 pm
I'm interested in Climate Change. In your mind it doesn't exist and the science is junk. I don't see that we have anything to discuss. As I said quite clearly when I dragged this topic up from the basement about 5 months ago, if you know, you know - and if you don't carry on bravely. I really don't care.

Plus reference material. I am sure you have links to studies to show otherwise??
Devastating hurricanes occurred long before the invention of automobiles and coal-fired power plants, and real-world hurricane activity shows little, if any, impact from global warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has largely agreed with this view. In its 2018 interim report, IPCC stated there is “only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences.”1 Similarly, in the IPCC’s AR6 WG1 report, released in August 2021, the IPCC noted,
1) There has been no increase in hurricanes as the planet has modestly warmed.

2) Even the U.N. IPCC agrees, finding no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes.

3) The United States recently went through its longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane strike.

4) The United States recently experienced its fewest total hurricanes in any eight-year period.

5)Florida, America’s most hurricane-prone state, recently underwent its longest period in recorded history without any hurricanes.


https://climateataglance.com/climate-at ... urricanes/
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 5:10 pm
Since we're not likely to agree on anything, how about we have a little fun? Over/under bet on October Global 2 m temp and Northern Hemisphere 2 m temp anomalies?

I'm going over on 0.8° C for the 2m Global and over on 1.3°C for 2m Northern Hemisphere. It's only the 26th and anything can still happen, but I'm willing wager at the end of the month we're looking at 5 consecutive months of numbers that make your "about 0.1°C per decade" seem oh so out of touch with what is happening right now.

(Seriously, and only cause I like you, the 2m Northern is a gimme at this point) [icon_lol2.gif]
Is it fun if we agree?? :-)
What is your source?

Climate ReAnalyzer
2m Global, 0.8C? Probably over.
2m NH, 1.3C? Probably over.

UAH6
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/ ... SEP_v1.pdf
2m Global, 0.8C? Probably over
2m NH, 1.3C? Probably under
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Jlabute wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 5:32 pm
Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 3:00 pm
I'm interested in Climate Change. In your mind it doesn't exist and the science is junk. I don't see that we have anything to discuss. As I said quite clearly when I dragged this topic up from the basement about 5 months ago, if you know, you know - and if you don't carry on bravely. I really don't care.

Plus reference material. I am sure you have links to studies to show otherwise??
Devastating hurricanes occurred long before the invention of automobiles and coal-fired power plants, and real-world hurricane activity shows little, if any, impact from global warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has largely agreed with this view. In its 2018 interim report, IPCC stated there is “only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences.”1 Similarly, in the IPCC’s AR6 WG1 report, released in August 2021, the IPCC noted,
1) There has been no increase in hurricanes as the planet has modestly warmed.

2) Even the U.N. IPCC agrees, finding no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes.

3) The United States recently went through its longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane strike.

4) The United States recently experienced its fewest total hurricanes in any eight-year period.

5)Florida, America’s most hurricane-prone state, recently underwent its longest period in recorded history without any hurricanes.


https://climateataglance.com/climate-at ... urricanes/
Hey, I've got an idea. Rather than concentrating on what some blog says the IPCC's AR6 says, why don't we spend a couple minutes reviewing what the IPCC actually says? Seems reasonable to me - no?



Or hey, call me wild and crazy for dreaming this approach up, but we could look at how NOAA interprets the IPCC's AR6 and other reports that have come to light since then.
* Sea level rise – which human activity has very likely been the main driver of since at least 1971 according to IPCC AR6 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.

* Tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in the future (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.

* Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase (medium to high confidence) on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain.

* The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century. There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

I don't think it matters much how we do it, or even if we agree. The data, and I do keep leaking it on here in a steady stream because I do find it interesting, seems to suggest the window of opportunity is
(ha ha ha, I'm really not that much of an optimist) closing.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 6:45 pm The data, and I do keep leaking it on here in a steady stream because I do find it interesting, seems to suggest the window of opportunity is
(ha ha ha, I'm really not that much of an optimist) closing.
What window of opportunity? To keep lying about a "climate crisis"? This alarmist garbage really is sickening.

Man-made climate change doesn't exist. It's just that simple.
"The western far Left is habitually the most stupid, naive people you can imagine. They come up with these really goofy constructs and it's all about feeling good about yourself."
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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The Green Barbarian wrote: Oct 27th, 2023, 9:05 am
Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 6:45 pm The data, and I do keep leaking it on here in a steady stream because I do find it interesting, seems to suggest the window of opportunity is
(ha ha ha, I'm really not that much of an optimist) closing.
What window of opportunity?
Oh you know, the whole if we assemble all the smart people and write reports with SMART objectives into a super huge intergovernmental panel, and fly all the rockstars, actors and activists to meet with the world leaders for champagne and caviar, we could somehow limit anthropogenic climate change to 1.5° C till at least 2030.

2030 seemed far enough away when it was set as a goal, but here it comes and there isn't a snowball's chance 1.5 is going to hold off until then.
This alarmist garbage really is sickening.
Really? I can't even hear the alarm - I guess it's just been going for so long that it's just become some of the background noise. I'm not alarmed. I'm intrigued. It's like we're all about to jump into the same ship and sail off in search of a new continent. No one really knows how this all plays out. There's simply no analogue to compare things to.
Man-made climate change doesn't exist. It's just that simple.
I know you believe that to be true. That's why I cringed when other Castanet posters suggested you could do an experiment by running your SUV in your garage years ago. I was afraid you might do it.

Glad you didn't.

:130:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Jlabute wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 6:10 pm
Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 26th, 2023, 5:10 pm
Since we're not likely to agree on anything, how about we have a little fun? Over/under bet on October Global 2 m temp and Northern Hemisphere 2 m temp anomalies?

I'm going over on 0.8° C for the 2m Global and over on 1.3°C for 2m Northern Hemisphere. It's only the 26th and anything can still happen, but I'm willing wager at the end of the month we're looking at 5 consecutive months of numbers that make your "about 0.1°C per decade" seem oh so out of touch with what is happening right now.

(Seriously, and only cause I like you, the 2m Northern is a gimme at this point) [icon_lol2.gif]
Is it fun if we agree?? :-)
What is your source?

Climate ReAnalyzer
2m Global, 0.8C? Probably over.
2m NH, 1.3C? Probably over.

UAH6
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/ ... SEP_v1.pdf
2m Global, 0.8C? Probably over
2m NH, 1.3C? Probably under
Fun if we agree - no, but it is encouraging. :smt045

I forgot the source was going to be an issue.

I just assumed we'd go with one of the big three datasets. Climate Reanalyzer is like checking a pulse through the wrist, so lets rule that out. UAH6, of course you know I'm going to have an issue with that. Nothing personal, it's just as Aqua and Terra age there's far too many corrections that need to be made. If it's any consolation, I also avoid MODIS when I can and I don't see much utility in FRP detections. (FRP - Fire Radiative Power, another remote sensing tool used to monitor wildfires) They all use the same old sensors.

I'm good with waiting till the 15th. How 'bout Berkeley, or NOAA NCEI? NOAA will be the easiest chart to read, but Berkeley is merged data with better spatial resolution. It's also out a few days earlier. I figure avoid GISTEMP because I don't want to trigger the "NASA evil" folks.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 27th, 2023, 11:48 am

2030 seemed far enough away when it was set as a goal, but here it comes and there isn't a snowball's chance 1.5 is going to hold off until then.
^^^
alarmist garbage
"The western far Left is habitually the most stupid, naive people you can imagine. They come up with these really goofy constructs and it's all about feeling good about yourself."
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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The Green Barbarian wrote: Oct 27th, 2023, 12:25 pm
Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 27th, 2023, 11:48 am

2030 seemed far enough away when it was set as a goal, but here it comes and there isn't a snowball's chance 1.5 is going to hold off until then.
^^^
alarmist garbage
Again, nothing alarmist about it. It was back in 1985 when the alarm was raised. We all ignored it, heck I bought a new truck.

It took till 1985 for scientists to bring to light everything that Exxon knew in the 1920's.

Here, the hearing. https://www.c-span.org/video/?125856-1/ ... use-effect

Nothing changed. If it helps you understand things as they are today, here's Al Gore pointing at what happened last month.

Image

:smt045
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Again, nothing alarmist about it.
Again, 100% alarmist. It's simply not true. Spouting hysterical propaganda to sell a narrative.
"The western far Left is habitually the most stupid, naive people you can imagine. They come up with these really goofy constructs and it's all about feeling good about yourself."
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Could this explain to some that carbon tax is the greatest con game in recent history?

"Sincerity makes the very least person to be of more value than the most talented hypocrite." - Charles Spurgeon
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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hozzle wrote: Oct 28th, 2023, 4:58 pm Could this explain to some that carbon tax is the greatest con game in recent history?

I'm sure it will for some people and the real beauty of it all is, they wouldn't even need to watch it to be convinced.

Methane, aka natural gas has a half life of around nine years. Good news! At around nine years the Methane CH4 is broken down by Oxygen radicals and falls out as H2O and a gas commonly called Carbon Dioxide, or CO2 - (not good news).

No, we're not entering an Ice Age termination event - take a look around, we're not in an Ice Age and it won't be just ice that's terminated. Methane is a well documented feedback loop and it's well represented in the EEI calculations under the column of "other well-mixed greenhouse gases".

By hey, I still recommend watching the video. Dr. Ben has a very soothing tone to his voice and it could help you sleep well at night. :smt045
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

Drip_Torch wrote: Oct 29th, 2023, 1:14 pm
hozzle wrote: Oct 28th, 2023, 4:58 pm Could this explain to some that carbon tax is the greatest con game in recent history?

I'm sure it will for some people and the real beauty of it all is, they wouldn't even need to watch it to be convinced.

Methane, aka natural gas has a half life of around nine years. Good news! At around nine years the Methane CH4 is broken down by Oxygen radicals and falls out as H2O and a gas commonly called Carbon dioxide, or CO2.

No, we're not entering an Ice Age termination event - take a look around we're not in an Ice Age. Methane is a well documented feedback loop and it's represented in the EEI calculations under the column of "other well-mixed greenhouse gases".

By hey, I still recommend watching the video. Dr. Ben has a very soothing tone to his voice and it will help you sleep well if you watch him at bed time.
It is a video that stands on its own... it is balanced in its presentation and the viewer can take from it what they want. I see it one way, others take it another... the best perspective either way is to avoid hysteria. :up:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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hozzle wrote: Oct 29th, 2023, 1:22 pm ... the best perspective either way is to avoid hysteria. :up:
Couldn't agree with you more. This is happening and all the hysteria in the world isn't going to change that.

Matter of fact, I'd go one step further than most. I think society has evolved to the point that we should remove the warning labels off of everything. You know that wood chipper guard and the warning that says don't stick your hand here. Hysterical fear mongering - get rid of it. We have no way of knowing someone will stick their hand there and what if the machine isn't running? Is there really a danger?

Public health - complete waste of time now that we've got youtube and facebook. That sign on the side of the highway that says extreme fire danger - bull - :cuss: , how could anyone know there's going to be a fire?

Matter of fact, I don't trust science enough to believe in the law of gravity anymore. I mean have you every heard from anyone that's jumped off of a building and said, "I couldn't fly"? How do we know for sure? Maybe they didn't even try because of all the hysterical fear mongering they've been exposed to all their lives. I mean what better way to keep someone down, than bombard them with the propaganda narrative of gravity.

Damn globalists - they're sneaky like that.

:smt045
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

Interesting how the three Milankovitch affects sort of correlate with when the Okanagan was under a glacier 12-15k yrs ago... and like the video states there are a few anomalies. If we are in a Ice Age Termination event I feel the whole carbon tax brought on is disingenuous to say the least.
:smt045
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