Climate Change Mega Thread

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GordonH
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by GordonH »

Atmospheric river sounds so much more ominous compared to former name Pineapple Express.
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Drip_Torch
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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GordonH wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 5:21 pm Atmospheric river sounds so much more ominous compared to former name Pineapple Express.
"Pineapple Express" was always a media term. Since about 2004 I've been aware of AR forecast products from SCRIPPS. I suspect what happened is all the meteorology hacks moved on to monetizing their climate blogs and more educated professionals moved into the front stage as weather issues started to impact us more.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by GordonH »

One day the actual truth about great many things will come to light, I fully expect many will be disappointed or shocked.
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Jlabute
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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GordonH wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 5:21 pm Atmospheric river sounds so much more ominous compared to former name Pineapple Express.
We are in the age of unscientific scary leftist dogma, ominous, anonymous, existential climate death threats, and 150 year temperature anomalies accurate to the hundredth of a degree. LOL. Pineapple express of course predates 'atmospheric river'. As though weather never before existed. The world has recently seen much higher temperatures in this interglacial and higher sea levels without experiencing any of the dozen 'tipping points' falsely predicted for decades. *yawn* The only people who won't enjoy Christmas are the liberals, NDP, and a few kooks. If you have an alternate prediction please say it.

It'll snow as always, and the effects of a recent Hunga Tonga eruption, El Nino, Saharan dust, and other various forces will change, and mankind will continue to go on learning about what actually causes warming if they can focus science rather than just top-down studies on CO2. Instantaneous changes are not caused by CO2 when CO2 is practically close to saturation.

ht.png


Most perturbations are caused by volcanoes.

https://assets.researchsquare.com/files ... 1659031907
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Last edited by Jlabute on Dec 7th, 2023, 9:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Drip_Torch
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Drip_Torch »

Image

Wow, cool chart bro! I wonder if you can review the Watts up with that blog and tell me what it's all about? I'd be really interested in knowing why there were perturbances in the stratosphere starting to showing for the periods 2011 to mid 2012, 2016, 2017 to 2019 and 2020 through to 2022. The Tonga Hunga volcano happened on January 15, 2022. What explains the significant water volume masses showing before it?

Watts up with that?

:130:

[icon_lol2.gif] , okay two can play that game.

ETA: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08/05/ ... isualized/

Are you sure you don't want to do another face saving edit? Khaykin et al., 2020 - you can thank me later.
Last edited by Drip_Torch on Dec 7th, 2023, 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jlabute
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 9:01 pm Image

Wow, cool chart bro! I wonder if you can review the Watts up with that blog and tell me what it's all about? I'd be really interested in knowing why there were perturbances in the stratosphere starting to showing for the periods 2011 to mid 2012, 2016, 2017 to 2019 and 2020 through to 2022. The Tonga Hunga volcano happened on January 15, 2022. What explains the significant water volume masses showing before it?

Watts up with that?

:130:

[icon_lol2.gif] , okay two can play that game.

ETA: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08/05/ ... isualized/
Mostly volcanoes as the study indicated. Hunga Tonga ejected enormous quantities of the most potent GHG - water. Good you are reading WUWT now ;-) Important to have a rounded view.


https://assets.researchsquare.com/files ... 1659031907
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Jlabute wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 9:28 pm Mostly volcanoes as the study indicated. Hunga Tonga ejected enormous quantities of the most potent GHG - water. Good you are reading WUWT now ;-) Important to have a rounded view.


https://assets.researchsquare.com/files ... 1659031907
Nah, I don't read that WUWT crap. I just reverse search your images. You're telling me what Watts says, not what the study you've linked to says.

Here you go, some actual science to read up on - Khaykin et al., 2020 Now do a "find" in that study for "water" and read each occurrence.

*whispers* - The answer, specific to the dates I asked about, is significant pyroCB's associated with wildfires. A possible climate change feedback loop in progress. Keep it quiet though, I don't want to scare the children.

Wildfire 101 - (or some other introductory level close to there, don't remember, it's been a while)

Wildland fires produce vast amounts of water vapor owing to the moisture released via the combustion reaction (Byram, 1959; Ward, 2001; Parmar et al., 2008). As noted by Ward (2001), for every kilogram of plant material combusted, 0.559 kg of water is released from combustion alone. Additional water vapor is also released prior to ignition during the preheating of the fuel where all moisture contained on or within the fuel must be evaporated before combustion can take place.

https://amt.copernicus.org/preprints/am ... 016-58.pdf

https://research.noaa.gov/2023/02/23/to ... atosphere/

So let's scratch pad this out... If 60% of the material released from combustion is water vapor and additional water vapor is released during preheating, we're looking at more than 60% of the composition of "smoke" is water vapor. Now, if the RH is 10% to 20% and the surface temperature is 35°C +, as it often is during bad fire storms, one could easily postulate, (without doing any math), more than 80% to 90% of "the smoke" in a pyro CB overshoot, is water vapor being injected into the stratosphere. Reality is, it's likely far more than that.

(Please don't make me do the math. It's been hard enough to make clear the difference relative humidity, absolute humidity and specific humidity. I just don't have the enthusiasm required to do another round of that.)

...

Mamouri, R-E., Ansmann A., Ohneiser, K., et all. Wildfire smoke triggers cirrus formation: Lidar observations overthe Eastern Mediterranean (Cyprus) (2023)

Fromm, M., Tupper, A., Rosenfeld, D., Servranckx, R. & McRae, R. Violent pyro-convective storm devastates Australia’s capital and pollutes the stratosphere. (2006)

Fromm, M. et al. The untold story of pyrocumulonimbus. (2010)

Dowdy, A. J., Fromm, M. D. & McCarthy, N. Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia (2017)

Peterson, D. A., Hyer, E. J., Campbell, J. R., Solbrig, J. E. & Fromm, M. D. A Conceptual Model for Development of Intense Pyrocumulonimbus in Western North America (2017)

Field, R. D. et al. Simulating the Black Saturday 2009 smoke plume with an interactive composition-climate model: Sensitivity to emissions amount, timing, and injection height. (2016)

Lang, T. J. et al. Lightning in wildfire smoke plumes observed in Colorado during summer 2012 (2014)

Lareau, N. P., Nauslar, N. J. & Abatzoglou, J. T. The Carr Fire vortex: a case of pyrotornadogenesis? (2018)

Shamsaei, K., Juliano, T., Roberts, M., Lareau, N.P., Coupled fire-atmosphere simulation of the 2018 Camp Fire using WRF-Fire (2023)

Peterson, D. A. et al. Wildfire-driven thunderstorms cause a volcano-like stratospheric injection of smoke. (2018)

...

(Now maybe you have some idea why I don't have any time for Watts.)

Anyways, last I recall from Neil Lareau this summer, there was about 120+ pyro CB occurrences over Canada last season. Not all of them would have overshot the tropopause, but a lot, if not most, did. I'm sure he'll be writing another paper soon, but I could easily reach out and ask him. He was very interested in the McDougall Creek Wildfire and the apparent spotting across the lake into Kelowna. I might have won a few points with him on that.
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Jlabute
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 9:01 pm
Image

I'd be really interested in knowing why there were perturbances in the stratosphere starting to showing for the periods 2011 to mid 2012, 2016, 2017 to 2019 and 2020 through to 2022. The Tonga Hunga volcano happened on January 15, 2022. What explains the significant water volume masses showing before it?
https://assets.researchsquare.com/files ... 1659031907


Sa – Sarychev eruption 2009
Na – Nabro eruption 2011 (in southern red sea)
Ke – Kelud eruption 2014
Ca – Calbuco eruption 2015
PNE – Pacific Northwest wildfire event
Ra – Raikoke eruption 2019
ANY – Australian New Year wildfire event
HT – Hunga Tonga eruption 2022. Also depleted ozone. There are few water vapour sinks in the stratosphere so the effects of HT will last for years.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Drip_Torch »

Jlabute wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 9:28 am
Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 9:01 pm
Image

I'd be really interested in knowing why there were perturbances in the stratosphere starting to showing for the periods 2011 to mid 2012, 2016, 2017 to 2019 and 2020 through to 2022. The Tonga Hunga volcano happened on January 15, 2022. What explains the significant water volume masses showing before it?
https://assets.researchsquare.com/files ... 1659031907


Sa – Sarychev eruption 2009 - Didn't ask about 2009
Na – Nabro eruption 2011 (in southern red sea) - Sulfur Dioxide aerosol emissions
Ke – Kelud eruption 2014 - Didn't ask about 2014
Ca – Calbuco eruption 2015 - Didn't ask about 2015
PNE – Pacific Northwest wildfire event 🗸
Ra – Raikoke eruption 2019 - Ash and Sulfur Dioxide
ANY – Australian New Year wildfire event 🗸
HT – Hunga Tonga eruption 2022. 🗸 Also depleted ozone. There are few water vapour sinks in the stratosphere so the effects of HT will last for years. (Yeah, sure - whatever)

So...

2011 to 2012?
2016?
2017 to 2019?
2020 to 2022? (prior to January 15, 2022, of course.)

What you did was look at the SAOD chart (Stratospheric aerosol optical depth) and try to pass it off as explaining the Global Stratospheric Water Vapour Mass events I was asking about. E for effort, and at least you finally looked at the report. Maybe now you understand how the study doesn't fit the narrative Watts attempted to wrap it in?

The focus of the study...
The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential persistent repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.
That's it, that's all. In fact, the study didn't make much of a case for warming. Just one passing sentence and a reference to Dessler et al., 2013.

The rest is just a denier construct in a blog. Watts really coloured outside of the lines, like he often does.
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hozzle
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Jlabute wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 9:28 am
Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 7th, 2023, 9:01 pm
Image

I'd be really interested in knowing why there were perturbances in the stratosphere starting to showing for the periods 2011 to mid 2012, 2016, 2017 to 2019 and 2020 through to 2022. The Tonga Hunga volcano happened on January 15, 2022. What explains the significant water volume masses showing before it?
https://assets.researchsquare.com/files ... 1659031907


Sa – Sarychev eruption 2009
Na – Nabro eruption 2011 (in southern red sea)
Ke – Kelud eruption 2014
Ca – Calbuco eruption 2015
PNE – Pacific Northwest wildfire event
Ra – Raikoke eruption 2019
ANY – Australian New Year wildfire event
HT – Hunga Tonga eruption 2022. Also depleted ozone. There are few water vapour sinks in the stratosphere so the effects of HT will last for years.
:up: :up: :up:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Drip_Torch »

hozzle wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 3:59 pm :up: :up: :up:
Oh for sure. Aerosol optical depth has nothing to do with stratospheric water vapor mass, but he does earn a :up: for glancing at the report he cited. Thankfully we had a few of the SAOD influencing events he listed off to force some cooling, or things would be even hotter right now.

:130:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 7:55 pm
hozzle wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 3:59 pm :up: :up: :up:
Oh for sure. Aerosol optical depth has nothing to do with stratospheric water vapor mass, but he does earn a :up: for glancing at the report he cited. Thankfully we had a few of the SAOD influencing events he listed off to force some cooling, or things would be even hotter right now.

:130:
[icon_lol2.gif] OK :135:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

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Oh hey... just came across this little write up...

"Paleoclimate research offers an overview of Earth's climate change over the past 65 million years or longer and helps to improve our understanding of the Earth's climate systems."
https://phys.org/news/2020-03-giant-cla ... tural.html

Interesting show the link above was produced in 2020 & sounds as if its new tech... but a quick search of Paleoclimate research yields much older articles... thike this one from 1997...
https://pdf.sciencedirectassets.com/271 ... 308f&cc=ca
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Jlabute »

Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 7:55 pm
hozzle wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 3:59 pm :up: :up: :up:
Oh for sure. Aerosol optical depth has nothing to do with stratospheric water vapor mass, but he does earn a :up: for glancing at the report he cited. Thankfully we had a few of the SAOD influencing events he listed off to force some cooling, or things would be even hotter right now.

:130:
Oh good, I see Hunga Tonga gets your approval. AT least we know the problem isn't man.
Most large eruptions are dominated by their sulphur dioxide emissions, which cool the planet temporarily as they scatter incoming sunlight. The Tonga eruption was unusual because instead it released a large amount of water vapour into the stratosphere – a powerful greenhouse gas – with little sulphur dioxide emissions.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volca ... 5c-breach/


hthhwarming.png
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Drip_Torch »

Jlabute wrote: Dec 9th, 2023, 9:52 am
Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 8th, 2023, 7:55 pm

Oh for sure. Aerosol optical depth has nothing to do with stratospheric water vapor mass, but he does earn a :up: for glancing at the report he cited. Thankfully we had a few of the SAOD influencing events he listed off to force some cooling, or things would be even hotter right now.

:130:
Oh good, I see Hunga Tonga gets your approval. AT least we know the problem isn't man.
Most large eruptions are dominated by their sulphur dioxide emissions, which cool the planet temporarily as they scatter incoming sunlight. The Tonga eruption was unusual because instead it released a large amount of water vapour into the stratosphere – a powerful greenhouse gas – with little sulphur dioxide emissions.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volca ... 5c-breach/
Hard to believe, but it seems we can almost agree on something every now and then. It just takes six months and I need to wait until Watt's writes a story, so that you can explain it back to me. Cool.
Drip_Torch wrote: Jun 13th, 2023, 3:21 pm So for anyone that dares to follow along. (You're brave, very brave) There's a great synopsis and discussion article touching on the various drivers of the events we've been observing in the last couple weeks.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-cl ... ing-point/

Most of it has been discussed, (most certainly not here), for a very long time and shouldn't be new, or surprising to anyone interested and following.

However there was one aspect that I hadn't considered as it was presented in this article.
Lastly, we should address a real wildcard. In January 2022, the underwater Hunga Tonga Volcano erupted in the South Pacific Ocean. The resulting explosion spewed large amounts of water vapor high up into the atmosphere where it still lingers.

This water vapor cools the upper atmosphere but warms Earth’s surface. It is an unexpected natural phenomenon.
Stratospheric injection of water vapour and particles is something I'm familar with in terms of PyroCB's and yet, I had never given any thought to Hunga Tonga's massive explosion.
:130:
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