Climate Change Mega Thread

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Glacier
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Glacier »

20 years ago Steve McIntyre tried to get AK tree ring data sampled in '79 by climatologist G Jacoby who was keeping it secret. Steve just found it online https://climateaudit.org/2023/12/12/dis ... by-series/

As a temp proxy it shows hot 11th C, unexceptional 20th C. Opposite to hockey stick
GBK0Am6WoAAf5Xw.png
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Jlabute
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Jlabute »

Glacier wrote: Dec 12th, 2023, 3:12 pm 20 years ago Steve McIntyre tried to get AK tree ring data sampled in '79 by climatologist G Jacoby who was keeping it secret. Steve just found it online https://climateaudit.org/2023/12/12/dis ... by-series/

As a temp proxy it shows hot 11th C, unexceptional 20th C. Opposite to hockey stick
Thanks Glacier, very interesting find. So many things can affect tree growth and selecting the most hockey-stick shaped series sounds exactly like what an activist molding his own smoking gun would do. Despite the so-called urgency of climate change, Mann refuses to subject his proprietary model(s) to peer review.
Jacoby and d’Arrigo [1989] states on page 44 that they sampled 36 northern boreal forest sites within the preceding decade, of which the ten "judged to provide the best record of temperature-influenced tree growth" were selected. No criteria for this judgement are described, and one presumes that they probably picked the 10 most hockey-stick shaped series.
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hozzle
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

Glacier wrote: Dec 12th, 2023, 3:12 pm 20 years ago Steve McIntyre tried to get AK tree ring data sampled in '79 by climatologist G Jacoby who was keeping it secret. Steve just found it online https://climateaudit.org/2023/12/12/dis ... by-series/

As a temp proxy it shows hot 11th C, unexceptional 20th C. Opposite to hockey stick

GBK0Am6WoAAf5Xw.png
Thanks for the link... very interesting and curious about why some data was withheld/manipulated... was it for funding or ideology? makes one wonder :135:

... but like so many folks say "follow the money" :smt045
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Drip_Torch
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Drip_Torch »

Evidently I lost track of Pyro-cb events last summer in Canada.

The actual number was an astounding 142. :smt045

Image

Per: Dr. David Peterson, Meteorologist at US Naval Research Lab.

For anyone more interested in what's going on in our climate today:

https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/da ... d-peterson
One pyroCb event in British Columbia in 2017 changed the [pyroCb] community. A smoke plume from four or five pyroCbs was released into the stratosphere; at the time, it was one of the largest plumes ever seen at those altitudes, including plumes from volcanic eruptions. That plume travelled around the Northern Hemisphere and lasted eight months. It was the benchmark event. No one had ever seen anything like it. Then, in less than three years came the Australian fire season of 2019-2020. There was an outbreak of 38 pyroCb updrafts over the span of a few days that produced a plume roughly three times larger than the one from British Columbia. That plume travelled around the Southern Hemisphere and persisted for about 15 months.
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hozzle
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

Drip_Torch wrote: Dec 13th, 2023, 6:07 pm Evidently I lost track of Pyro-cb events last summer in Canada.

The actual number was an astounding 142. :smt045

Image

Per: Dr. David Peterson, Meteorologist at US Naval Research Lab.

For anyone more interested in what's going on in our climate today:

https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/da ... d-peterson
One pyroCb event in British Columbia in 2017 changed the [pyroCb] community. A smoke plume from four or five pyroCbs was released into the stratosphere; at the time, it was one of the largest plumes ever seen at those altitudes, including plumes from volcanic eruptions. That plume travelled around the Northern Hemisphere and lasted eight months. It was the benchmark event. No one had ever seen anything like it. Then, in less than three years came the Australian fire season of 2019-2020. There was an outbreak of 38 pyroCb updrafts over the span of a few days that produced a plume roughly three times larger than the one from British Columbia. That plume travelled around the Southern Hemisphere and persisted for about 15 months.
Outstanding historical data reaching back as far as... hmmm... 2017 :135: and only recently became more accurate with satellite technology :up:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by foenix »

hozzle wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 12:26 pm
foenix wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 7:30 am *removed* .....show me a link that says that there were air trapped with the fossils from even 100 million years ago and maybe the dream might come true for you. Here's a start for the more through research going forward tho'......[...]
Google is simple so I won't add instructions... but a simple search produced this...

Zhang helped oversee the alkenones method team, along with Heather Stoll, professor at ETH Zürich, and Liu assisted in the research. Rae worked on the boron isotope methods, along with Gavin Foster of the University of Southampton and Ross Whiteford of the University of St. Andrews.

“The alkenone method begins with biomarkers that were produced by algae millions of years ago, and these algae, like algae today, were photosynthetic – just like plants or trees on land,” Zhang said. “When these algae photosynthesize, they fractionate carbon isotopes. That process is determined by a number of factors, and one of them is the amount of CO2 available to them in seawater.”


https://today.tamu.edu/2021/06/14/ancie ... ers%20said.

... but I can hear it now... dismiss the technology to get the data and deflect the audience on other aspects of the link. Either way the technology exist.
So the simple answer without the deflection would be a NO then. :biggrin: Like I wrote before....proxies = Big Guesses

From your link.....
The researchers used two proxy methods to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels during the last 66 million years, also known as the Cenozoic Era: one method using carbon isotopes in alkenones, and another method using boron isotopes in planktic foraminifera – single-celled organisms with calcite shells, common in marine cores.
As oppose to......
Ice cores are cylinders of ice drilled out of an ice sheet or glacier. Most ice core records come from Antarctica and Greenland, and the longest ice cores extend to 3km in depth. The oldest continuous ice core records to date extend 123,000 years in Greenland and 800,000 years in Antarctica. Ice cores contain information about past temperature, and about many other aspects of the environment. Crucially, the ice encloses small bubbles of air that contain a sample of the atmosphere – from these it is possible to measure DIRECTLY the past concentration of atmospheric gases, including the major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/pub ... te-change/

....note: it's now 2.7 million years of direct CO2 measurements instead of 800,000 years.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by foenix »

Jlabute wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 12:49 pm
foenix wrote: Nov 28th, 2023, 4:03 pm
Sometime even satellite temperature are inaccurate and used to manipulate data....you know who you are, hey?..."whatsappwiththat"
???? What ???? There are multiple satellite datasets. WUWT only publishes the data. They do not manipulate it. The data doesn't belong to WUWT. Unless you know otherwise??
What Anthony Watts the failed engineering and meteorology TV weatherman does is to cherry pick the sometimes flawed satellite data and articles for climate change deniers and the Heartland Institute....(The Heartland Institute is an American conservative and libertarian public policy think tank known for its rejection of both the scientific consensus on climate change and the negative health impacts of smoking.)
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by foenix »

Jlabute wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 12:49 pm .....Certainly such small changes can also occur
That's the key isn't it? Seem to me when the CO2 sits below 300ppm, there were/are small changes in temperature over many 100's of thousand years (maybe even millions of years) NOT the small changes in temperature in just 250 years like we are experiencing now......see the problem here?

......and even if the CO2 and the temperature were higher in Earth's history using the Big Guess technique of proxies, it doesn't really matter now does it cause we weren't around back then for the changes to affect us.......it's like, "if If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"
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hozzle
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

foenix wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 8:11 am
hozzle wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 12:26 pm

Google is simple so I won't add instructions... but a simple search produced this...

Zhang helped oversee the alkenones method team, along with Heather Stoll, professor at ETH Zürich, and Liu assisted in the research. Rae worked on the boron isotope methods, along with Gavin Foster of the University of Southampton and Ross Whiteford of the University of St. Andrews.

“The alkenone method begins with biomarkers that were produced by algae millions of years ago, and these algae, like algae today, were photosynthetic – just like plants or trees on land,” Zhang said. “When these algae photosynthesize, they fractionate carbon isotopes. That process is determined by a number of factors, and one of them is the amount of CO2 available to them in seawater.”


https://today.tamu.edu/2021/06/14/ancie ... ers%20said.

... but I can hear it now... dismiss the technology to get the data and deflect the audience on other aspects of the link. Either way the technology exist.
So the simple answer without the deflection would be a NO then. :biggrin: Like I wrote before....proxies = Big Guesses

From your link.....
The researchers used two proxy methods to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels during the last 66 million years, also known as the Cenozoic Era: one method using carbon isotopes in alkenones, and another method using boron isotopes in planktic foraminifera – single-celled organisms with calcite shells, common in marine cores.
As oppose to......
Ice cores are cylinders of ice drilled out of an ice sheet or glacier. Most ice core records come from Antarctica and Greenland, and the longest ice cores extend to 3km in depth. The oldest continuous ice core records to date extend 123,000 years in Greenland and 800,000 years in Antarctica. Ice cores contain information about past temperature, and about many other aspects of the environment. Crucially, the ice encloses small bubbles of air that contain a sample of the atmosphere – from these it is possible to measure DIRECTLY the past concentration of atmospheric gases, including the major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/pub ... te-change/

....note: it's now 2.7 million years of direct CO2 measurements instead of 800,000 years.
Read here first...

So are they NOT measuring directly in both methods? :135:
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Jlabute
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Jlabute »

foenix wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 8:46 am
Jlabute wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 12:49 pm

???? What ???? There are multiple satellite datasets. WUWT only publishes the data. They do not manipulate it. The data doesn't belong to WUWT. Unless you know otherwise??
What Anthony Watts the failed engineering and meteorology TV weatherman does is to cherry pick the sometimes flawed satellite data and articles for climate change deniers and the Heartland Institute....(The Heartland Institute is an American conservative and libertarian public policy think tank known for its rejection of both the scientific consensus on climate change and the negative health impacts of smoking.)
In some respects everyone fails to some degree. Even Michael Mann, the UN, Biden. Science is also full of retractions.

Not sure what UAH has to do with Anthony Watts, please elaborate. Not sure how the complete data-set of UAH is called cherry picking. What parts have been cherry picked, and for what?? You have access to the full dataset.

Your conclusions are way out to lunch. No such thing as a consensus in science when scientific fact is available. Unfortunately, you have very little fact in climate. There is no consensus except the debunked consensus from the kooks.
Lord Kelvin - When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it.
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Jlabute
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by Jlabute »

foenix wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 9:07 am
Jlabute wrote: Nov 29th, 2023, 12:49 pm .....Certainly such small changes can also occur
That's the key isn't it? Seem to me when the CO2 sits below 300ppm, there were/are small changes in temperature over many 100's of thousand years (maybe even millions of years) NOT the small changes in temperature in just 250 years like we are experiencing now......see the problem here?

......and even if the CO2 and the temperature were higher in Earth's history using the Big Guess technique of proxies, it doesn't really matter now does it cause we weren't around back then for the changes to affect us.......it's like, "if If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"
There were small changes in CO2 and those were driven by temperature, not the other way around. Warmer oceans hold less CO2. We had relatively large changes in temperature 9000 to 5000 years ago. 4C to 6C warmer plus 3m to 5m higher sea levels. Not much different CO2 levels though.

Today, warmer temperatures are affecting us for the better. Would you rather live in a mini ice-age? I would say warmer temperatures were a benefit to all mankind thousands of years ago, especially for the Vikings in Greenland who were eventually forced to migrate by encroaching glaciers. Mankind and all life benefit from warmer temperatures, not colder temperatures.

Changing CO2 levels in the air won't stop weather from occurring.
Lord Kelvin - When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by foenix »

hozzle wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 9:29 am
So are they NOT measuring directly in both methods? :135:
Well......if one has to ask that question, I would say google what proxies means in temperature and CO2 guesses in the past.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by foenix »

Jlabute wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 11:30 am
foenix wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 8:46 am

What Anthony Watts the failed engineering and meteorology TV weatherman does is to cherry pick the sometimes flawed satellite data and articles for climate change deniers and the Heartland Institute....(The Heartland Institute is an American conservative and libertarian public policy think tank known for its rejection of both the scientific consensus on climate change and the negative health impacts of smoking.)
In some respects everyone fails to some degree. Even Michael Mann, the UN, Biden. Science is also full of retractions.

Not sure what UAH has to do with Anthony Watts, please elaborate. Not sure how the complete data-set of UAH is called cherry picking. What parts have been cherry picked, and for what?? You have access to the full dataset...............
Jiabute, we've gone through this before. Can you not remember? Satellite temperature measurements use proxies as well as variations in sensors, satellites, different algorithms, models, orbit variations, calibrations, friction, etc etc etc...which all causes biases in the synthetic temperature measurements.....and as far as the TV weatherman is concerned, he cherry picks what research and articles gets posted on WUWT using these cherry picked data, theories and conclusions to push his sponsor's (fossil fuel) agenda.....you know kinda like Judith Curry.

https://skepticalscience.com/Satellite- ... meters.htm

......and if you read the article, Spenser of UAH blows off one your pet theories about "cloud cover"...
Roy Spencer who, with John Christy, runs the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) satellite synthetic temperature dataset disagrees, believing that the cloud-caused bias is insignificant.
Last edited by foenix on Dec 14th, 2023, 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hozzle
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by hozzle »

foenix wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 1:21 pm
hozzle wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 9:29 am
So are they NOT measuring directly in both methods? :135:
Well......if one has to ask that question, I would say google what proxies means in temperature and CO2 guesses in the past.
So are not acknowledging the fact that scientists are getting trapped air samples from shells formed millions of years ago?

OK, that's your right. I wont ask anymore.

:topic:
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Post by foenix »

hozzle wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 2:22 pm
foenix wrote: Dec 14th, 2023, 1:21 pm

Well......if one has to ask that question, I would say google what proxies means in temperature and CO2 guesses in the past.
So are not acknowledging the fact that scientists are getting trapped air samples from shells formed millions of years ago?

OK, that's your right. I wont ask anymore.

:topic:
Really? Here's your link......

https://today.tamu.edu/2021/06/14/ancie ... ers%20said

Show me where it says in the article that they extracted CO2 samples from 66 million years ago and measured the CO2 levels. Have you figured out what "proxy" means in the context of the above link?
If not, I would strongly suggest a little more research to better your position in this discussion.

It's right there in the first sentence of YOUR link. The key word is ESTIMATED (proxy method) and not MEASURED (ice core method)....see the difference?
n a new study, scientists have estimated carbon dioxide levels from the past 66 million years using two methods analyzing tiny organisms found in sediment cores from the deep seafloor...............the researchers used two proxy methods to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels during the last 66 million years

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