Electric Vehicles

[I Think]

ICE engines probably are the pinnacle of consumer engineering, the amount of engineering is staggering, the drive to improve ICE engines has lead to fantastic developments in manufacturing, in tooling and designs for production.

EV's are much simpler and of course require much less maintenance, their simplicity is leading to a rapid reduction in costs as the market scales up. The two main areas of development for EV's are self driving, and battery cost/range.
The self driving aspect is largely software development, and we can expect that Moore's law will be the major driver with the related hardware.

I think we can anticipate incremental improvements with battery chemistry, charging rates are already largely grid related, range will increase as new chemistries are developed, and costs will continue to fall as production scales up.

As with lead/acid batteries, the materials in Lithium batteries are not consumed, and as recycling scales up the cost of lithium, cobalt, nickel etc will drop as the recovered materials impact the market. Second life battery use will increase until it hits the saturation point, then as second life batteries begin to enter the recycling chain, their materials will begin to push battery costs further downward.

The Nay Sayers, and Luddites with their strongly held, uninformed opinions, remain an ever shrinking group, just as the people who used to decry solar, wind & batteries are now seen as p**'ing into the wind.

[Jlabute]

ICE engines probably are the pinnacle of consumer engineering, the amount of engineering is staggering, the drive to improve ICE engines has lead to fantastic developments in manufacturing, in tooling and designs for production.

EV's are much simpler and of course require much less maintenance, their simplicity is leading to a rapid reduction in costs as the market scales up. The two main areas of development for EV's are self driving, and battery cost/range.
The self driving aspect is largely software development, and we can expect that Moore's law will be the major driver with the related hardware.

I think we can anticipate incremental improvements with battery chemistry, charging rates are already largely grid related, range will increase as new chemistries are developed, and costs will continue to fall as production scales up.

As with lead/acid batteries, the materials in Lithium batteries are not consumed, and as recycling scales up the cost of lithium, cobalt, nickel etc will drop as the recovered materials impact the market. Second life battery use will increase until it hits the saturation point, then as second life batteries begin to enter the recycling chain, their materials will begin to push battery costs further downward.

The Nay Sayers, and Luddites with their strongly held, uninformed opinions, remain an ever shrinking group, just as the people who used to decry solar, wind & batteries are now seen as p**'ing into the wind.

Absolutely. The ICE engine is not close to done. Mazda, Toyota, and other motor companies are still making advancements in fossil fuel engine technology. They know ICE engines will be around for at least another 60 years or so, at least.

Self-driving has nothing to do with the type of engine. It is a major selling point for EV since they need as many selling points as possible. Self-driving is something that every car would have had by now according to progressives. They said this back in 2015. Progressives tend to be horrible at understanding science, technology, and engineering. Self-driving vehicles require not just firmware/software, but also complicated hardware sensors such as RADAR, LiDAR, ultrasonic transducers, and image sensors. Lots of sensors with a complicated neural network and these vehicle tests still end up killing people. The complexity is difficult to troubleshoot and understand why someone walking a bike across a street deserves to be run over. Mix this with reflections, weather, etc, and there are numerous ways these simple sensors can be fooled. This will be incrementally improving until we really have SAFE self-driving vehicles... maybe around 2040 or later. Taking away the steering wheel in all weather conditions is a tough engineering problem. The amount of engineering still required is staggering.

The people who promote solar and wind and batteries are mostly the same people who decry nuclear, the cleanest and safest of all energy sources. Wind and solar are promoted by those who hate the earth and want to pollute as much land and ocean as possible. Those who want an exclusive solar and wind future are sucking the world dry of resources and rare metals in order to create a speck of energy for a communistic dystopia starved of energy and bare shelves. Nuclear will be the future. Solar and wind only have a narrow window of opportunity and are a waste of money and resources for what they accomplish. Without subsidies and unethical contracts, these energy companies would fold, as many have. The desire for renewables is highly overestimated and pushed by virtue signaling. Canada is committed to bringing SMR to bear and when they are available, they will produce 100 times more energy in 1000 times less real-estate.

[I Think]

The Nay Sayers, and Luddites with their strongly held, uninformed opinions, remain an ever shrinking group, just as the people who used to decry solar, wind & batteries are now seen as p**'ing into the wind.

Absolutely. The ICE engine is not close to done. Mazda, Toyota, and other motor companies are still making advancements in fossil fuel engine technology. They know ICE engines will be around for at least another 60 years or so, at least.

Self-driving has nothing to do with the type of engine. It is a major selling point for EV since they need as many selling points as possible. Self-driving is something that every car would have had by now according to progressives. They said this back in 2015. Progressives tend to be horrible at understanding science, technology, and engineering. Self-driving vehicles require not just firmware/software, but also complicated hardware sensors such as RADAR, LiDAR, ultrasonic transducers, and image sensors. Lots of sensors with a complicated neural network and these vehicle tests still end up killing people. The complexity is difficult to troubleshoot and understand why someone walking a bike across a street deserves to be run over. Mix this with reflections, weather, etc, and there are numerous ways these simple sensors can be fooled. This will be incrementally improving until we really have SAFE self-driving vehicles... maybe around 2040 or later. Taking away the steering wheel in all weather conditions is a tough engineering problem. The amount of engineering still required is staggering.

The people who promote solar and wind and batteries are mostly the same people who decry nuclear, the cleanest and safest of all energy sources. Wind and solar are promoted by those who hate the earth and want to pollute as much land and ocean as possible. Those wo want an exclusive solar and wind future are sucking the world dry of resources and rare metals in order to create a speck of energy for a dystopia starved of energy. Nuclear will be the future. Solar and wind only have a narrow window of opportunity and are a waste of money and resources for what they accomplish. Without subsidies and unethical contracts, these energy companies would fold, as many have. You by far over-estimate the worlds desire for renewables. Canada is committed to bringing SMR to bear and when they are available, they will produce 100 times more energy in 1000 times less real-estate.

I salute you for your massive and in depth understanding of EV's and Solar, wind and batteries, it is astounding that you manage to intuit all the information you post. You must intuit these facts as we both know that there is no scientific evidence to support them.

[Jlabute]

Certainly, no one knows the future but we all want the same thing, energy security and independence, reliability, affordability, and more of it without increasing deaths from cold or heat. Renewables will not get us there. Man is more conscious of the environment and climate, and current choices should reflect this, but, there is no so called climate emergency or rush. Few believe this as we all see the results of more than a dozen accords that changed nothing. There is no will for renewables and most countries want government to fix it without raising taxes. There is plenty of time to attack it properly. Michael Schellenberger changed his mind on nuclear. There are many irrational fears of a great many things. I don't hate EVs. I think technology is wonderful when it is ready. Let the market choose without mandates. Such forms of public manipulation are subject to the political party in power. Countries with a high proportion of renewables suffer energy emergencies.

One must wonder if the powers that be consider EVs such a dire requirement to avoid earth's destruction, they should at least declare a specific type of vehicle (Battery or Hydrogen) to be the savior of choice and forge forward. Instead, they let the market decide.

Just recently, we learned the largest wind turbine farm in NB has to be rebuilt. Such a waste and such a blight on the natural scenery. Not my favorite energy source as you know.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brun ... -1.6312668

[I Think]

Renewables will not get us there.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Another blanket statement without evidence.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Schellenberger changed his mind on nuclear.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Nothing wrong with nuclear power, except that the operators have shown themselves to be sloppy in their work and have insufficient care regarding disposal of waste.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Countries with a high proportion of renewables suffer energy emergencies.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Evidence?
--------------------------------------------------------------

Just recently, we learned the largest wind turbine farm in NB has to be rebuilt. Such a waste and such a blight on the natural scenery. Not my favorite energy source as you know.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brun ... -1.6312668

Nothing wrong with the wind turbines, transalta or its engineers and suppliers did not sufficiently found the machines, they are not going to rebuild, but replace or strengthen the foundations, once again you distort the story to fit your narrative.

[captkirkcanada]

Guy stuck on I-95 thankfull to have been in his ev .

https://insideevs.com/news/560870/tesla ... -model3%2F

[Jlabute]

Renewables will not get us there.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Another blanket statement without evidence.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Schellenberger changed his mind on nuclear.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Nothing wrong with nuclear power, except that the operators have shown themselves to be sloppy in their work and have insufficient care regarding disposal of waste.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Countries with a high proportion of renewables suffer energy emergencies.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Evidence?
--------------------------------------------------------------

Just recently, we learned the largest wind turbine farm in NB has to be rebuilt. Such a waste and such a blight on the natural scenery. Not my favorite energy source as you know.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brun ... -1.6312668

Nothing wrong with the wind turbines, transalta or its engineers and suppliers did not sufficiently found the machines, they are not going to rebuild, but replace or strengthen the foundations, once again you distort the story to fit your narrative.

Plenty is wrong with wind though. It is an immature, intermittent, and insecure, knee-jerk energy source. This tiny problem will cost $100M to fix. Solar and wind are environmentally destructive and need to be over-built and supplemented with gas to replace any other fuels.

Europe is facing a self-inflicted crisis in the pursuit of renewables. Gas and electricity prices are soaring. Business is booming and energy demand is growing along side a wind drought. Germany is also closing nuclear plants.

Europe, Australia, California all have the highest energy prices. Australia has endless brownouts as does California.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... rgy-crisis

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-ene ... 1641335775

Canada plans to be a world leader in nuclear SMR. I am excited about this.

https://smractionplan.ca/

[captkirkcanada]

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elec ... %3A02%3A13

Change has come to Europe, and more Europeans than ever are ready to go electric. According to data the Financial Times compiled with auto analyst Matthias Schmidt and published earlier this week, electric cars outsold diesel-powered vehicles for the first time in December 2021 in 18 European countries. In Western Europe, car buyers purchased 176,000 new EVs compared to 160,000 diesels. That boils down to a 20% market share for EVs, and less than a 19% share for diesels.

An important distinction here is that this only looks at battery-electric cars. This is not a combined figure for electrified vehicles, which includes hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs. Past data showed electrified car sales as a whole overtook diesels back in September 2020.

that is correct, change is here already

[seewood]

that is correct, change is here already

yeup, and in some places it may change back : https://electrek.co/2022/01/13/valais-r ... ncentives/

[spooker]

that is correct, change is here already

yeup, and in some places it may change back : https://electrek.co/2022/01/13/valais-r ... ncentives/

Interesting that they even had subsidies for hybrid vehicles, but good that they are removing that carrot ... hybrids have had their place while BEVs come up to speed (literally <grin>) ... let the complications fade into the annals of history ...

[captkirkcanada]

that is correct, change is here already

yeup, and in some places it may change back : https://electrek.co/2022/01/13/valais-r ... ncentives/

I Agree with the article you posted, hybrids do not offer a greener solution than just ice cars so yea stop promoting them and just promote pure ev, no ice hybrids. thanks for posting, love to see countries get it right on real green tech

[captkirkcanada]

yeup, and in some places it may change back : https://electrek.co/2022/01/13/valais-r ... ncentives/

Interesting that they even had subsidies for hybrid vehicles, but good that they are removing that carrot ... hybrids have had their place while BEVs come up to speed (literally <grin>) ... let the complications fade into the annals of history ...

That is exactly same conclusion i came to. they are finally seeing the ploy of hybrids.hybrids had a place 20 years ago, but not now. anything with a ice engine need to go bye bye

[I Think]

Have not seen any mention of capacitors, in this thread.
Capacitors aka super caps, can accept & store a huge amount of electricity virtually as fast as the grid can supply it.
Unfortunately they are not suitable for powering electric motors for EV's but they are capable of being used as an intermediary step, they can be used to discharge their stored power into the batteries that drive the vehicle.
Research is going on to either make super caps that will discharge at a rate suitable for EV's and or research into how best to use them for short term storage for charging the EV batteries.

[nepal]

.
Hybrids generate their own electricity, so no need for solar panels, wind turbines, hydro dams, no massive battery, no cords to plug-in, no charging waits, etc. Hybrids put zero demand on the grid. They use a miserly amount of gas, ready to go anytime, and far less likely to leave you stranded in the cold.
.

[Jlabute]

Have not seen any mention of capacitors, in this thread.
Capacitors aka super caps, can accept & store a huge amount of electricity virtually as fast as the grid can supply it.
Unfortunately they are not suitable for powering electric motors for EV's but they are capable of being used as an intermediary step, they can be used to discharge their stored power into the batteries that drive the vehicle.
Research is going on to either make super caps that will discharge at a rate suitable for EV's and or research into how best to use them for short term storage for charging the EV batteries.

The closest thing to becoming a reality would be Al-ion which can charge almost as fast as a super-cap. Super-caps have had their reputation tarnished by failed deliveries. If you look up “grabat” which was the graphene based super-cap developed in Italy, it was marketed as being sent to manufacturing back in 2016, but it never happened. In fact, they are still working on it. Super-caps have technical issues which have not been resolved yet, at least to make auto batteries viable. The problem with super-caps is the layers are thin and rated to small voltages, and the electrolyte can break down and super-cap layers can short. There is a lot of surface area that can fail. You’ll probably see Al-ion before super-caps.