Predictions

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the truth
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Re: Predictions

Post by the truth »

Frisk wrote:I'll guess a conservative minority

agree 100%
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Gone_Fishin
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Re: Predictions

Post by Gone_Fishin »

Hurtlander wrote:I’m not sure if this is a prediction or not, but evidently a record number of ballots have been cast in just the first two days of early voting. Isn’t that usually an indicator that we’re about to see a change in government ?
It seems like these days people only turn out in great numbers to vote when they’re angry with the government.
Yes, strong advance polls invariably point to voters wanting change. As of today, the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals in number of seats. That's the first time in months. That momentum will propel Andrew Scheer to a majority government, one in which we'll all be better off than the current fluster cluck.
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Re: Predictions

Post by The Green Barbarian »

Gone_Fishin wrote:
Yes, strong advance polls invariably point to voters wanting change. As of today, the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals in number of seats. That's the first time in months. That momentum will propel Andrew Scheer to a majority government, one in which we'll all be better off than the current fluster cluck.
Yes it will be interesting on Oct 22nd when the Conservatives are able to get into the books and see just how much corruption has been going on behind the scenes. I am wondering if Justin's living in that cottage at 24 Sussex has been prepping him for the upcoming jail time he is probably facing. At least he'll have his best bud Gerry there with him to keep him company.
Canadians were tricked into returning the same failed party to power.

To the 30% who still support Mark Carney,
... you are the dumbest people alive.
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Re: Predictions

Post by The Green Barbarian »

https://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/blog ... 1.23976499

Looks like Svend is poised to "steal" this riding from the Liberals. He must be thinking of the voters as jewelry to keep motivated to campaign. Anyway, this riding is indicative of what is happening to the Liberals right now. Even "safe" seats are falling. The Liberal campaign is in complete implosion right now.
Canadians were tricked into returning the same failed party to power.

To the 30% who still support Mark Carney,
... you are the dumbest people alive.
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Gone_Fishin
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Re: Predictions

Post by Gone_Fishin »

The Green Barbarian wrote:https://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/blog ... 1.23976499

Looks like Svend is poised to "steal" this riding from the Liberals. He must be thinking of the voters as jewelry to keep motivated to campaign. Anyway, this riding is indicative of what is happening to the Liberals right now. Even "safe" seats are falling. The Liberal campaign is in complete implosion right now.
You know it's bad when a jewelry thief is trusted more than the Liberals.
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Urbane
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Re: Predictions

Post by Urbane »

Something else to consider is the polling. You can look at the average of the polls, and there are a lot of polling companies, to get an idea of how things might end up. However, some pollsters have a history of being more accurate than others. I was just reading an article which singled out Forum as having had the most accurate final poll in 2015. So check out their results and you might have a good idea of how things will turn out this time. Or not.
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Urbane
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Re: Predictions

Post by Urbane »

  • Gone_Fishin wrote:
    Yes, strong advance polls invariably point to voters wanting change. As of today, the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals in number of seats. That's the first time in months. That momentum will propel Andrew Scheer to a majority government, one in which we'll all be better off than the current fluster cluck.
Momentum is what is often overlooked so we look at the hard data and assume there will be a minority government. It may well be a minority government but on the other hand your prediction might be on the money. There are a couple of polls that show the Conservatives up by five points or more nationally and with the NDP and Bloc taking away some Liberal votes the final seat total on election night might surprise people. Momentum is the key.
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Re: Predictions

Post by The Green Barbarian »

Urbane wrote: Momentum is what is often overlooked so we look at the hard data and assume there will be a minority government. It may well be a minority government but on the other hand your prediction might be on the money. There are a couple of polls that show the Conservatives up by five points or more nationally and with the NDP and Bloc taking away some Liberal votes the final seat total on election night might surprise people. Momentum is the key.
We could be looking at a repeat here of 2011. That would be wonderful.
Canadians were tricked into returning the same failed party to power.

To the 30% who still support Mark Carney,
... you are the dumbest people alive.
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normaM
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Re: Predictions

Post by normaM »

End of the day people will vote for who they like and Scheer is the least popular. Cons should have offered up a different Leader, they had enuff people who qualified
So LIBS will take it.. Andrew has always been a attack type person.. dimples and all
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Re: Predictions

Post by Ka-El »

As long as we end up with neither a Liberal nor a Con majority I will be relieved. As noted by many here, we will be far better served by a minority government protecting us from reckless and extremist ideas, and holding government to account.

I predict a strong showing by the Cons in the Okanagan Valley (yawn), perhaps even western Canada, but hopefully not enough to form a majority. A strong advance turnout usually means people are looking for change, but with 70% saying they intend to show up and vote (that is a much bigger number than we are used to) literally anything could happen.
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Re: Predictions

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normaM wrote:End of the day people will vote for who they like and Scheer is the least popular. Cons should have offered up a different Leader, they had enuff people who qualified
So LIBS will take it.. Andrew has always been a attack type person.. dimples and all
Not sure why people would say that Scheer isn't popular, other than for partisan purposes. I've met him and he's a great guy. Perhaps you should meet him first before you judge?
Canadians were tricked into returning the same failed party to power.

To the 30% who still support Mark Carney,
... you are the dumbest people alive.
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normaM
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Re: Predictions

Post by normaM »

I think the strong advance voting has more to do with the Snowbirds
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Re: Predictions

Post by Ka-El »

normaM wrote: End of the day people will vote for who they like and Scheer is the least popular.
While the Cons will win a couple of seats in the Okanagan and Alberta, it would seem Scheer really is unpopular with most of the rest of Canada. Whether it's his presumptive arrogance or the fact he has nothing believable to offer so far in this campaign other than his petulant attacks it seems most of the country is looking for another choice. With 70% of the electorate saying they intend to vote this election maybe we will see real change. Or maybe we'll see more of the same.
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Re: Predictions

Post by Urban Cowboy »

Ka-El wrote:
normaM wrote: End of the day people will vote for who they like and Scheer is the least popular.
While the Cons will win a couple of seats in the Okanagan and Alberta, it would seem Scheer really is unpopular with most of the rest of Canada. Whether it's his presumptive arrogance or the fact he has nothing believable to offer so far in this campaign other than his petulant attacks it seems most of the country is looking for another choice. With 70% of the electorate saying they intend to vote this election maybe we will see real change. Or maybe we'll see more of the same.
Also doesn't help that his real world experience is limited to being an insurance office clerk for a few months.

That's not something that screams of qualification for the highest office in the land.
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Re: Predictions

Post by The Green Barbarian »

Ka-El wrote: While the Cons will win a couple of seats in the Okanagan and Alberta, it would seem Scheer really is unpopular with most of the rest of Canada..
Unpopular with some people maybe, but otherwise, this is a false statement.
Canadians were tricked into returning the same failed party to power.

To the 30% who still support Mark Carney,
... you are the dumbest people alive.

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