Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Glacier
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

Post by Glacier »

XT225 wrote: May 15th, 2024, 1:26 pm
Gee, it looks like you were wrong. if no one is making cat 2 fires here, then WHY would they now ban them as of May 17th....lol. :swear: Its about time! :up:
Because you ban cat 3 and then allow time for companies to finish their cat 2 burns.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Glacier wrote: May 15th, 2024, 2:01 pm
XT225 wrote: May 15th, 2024, 1:26 pm
Gee, it looks like you were wrong. if no one is making cat 2 fires here, then WHY would they now ban them as of May 17th....lol. :swear: Its about time! :up:
Because you ban cat 3 and then allow time for companies to finish their cat 2 burns.
Yes, but YOU said that nobody is making cat 2 fires, which is an unsubstantiated opinion. :smt045
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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XT225 wrote: May 15th, 2024, 3:45 pm
Yes, but YOU said that nobody is making cat 2 fires, which is an unsubstantiated opinion. :smt045
Practically no one. cat 3 is when a logging operation has 100 fires to burn. Cat 2 is when you burn one at a time. No one wants to do that for very long because it takes a lot of time and effort.

Forestry knows what they're doing far better than the armchair advisors. The Okanagan is quite wet at higher elevations so the risk was very very small of a cat 2 getting away earlier than now. But drying has gotten to the stage it's time to
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Glacier wrote: May 15th, 2024, 4:26 pm
XT225 wrote: May 15th, 2024, 3:45 pm
Yes, but YOU said that nobody is making cat 2 fires, which is an unsubstantiated opinion. :smt045
Practically no one. cat 3 is when a logging operation has 100 fires to burn. Cat 2 is when you burn one at a time. No one wants to do that for very long because it takes a lot of time and effort.

Forestry knows what they're doing far better than the armchair advisors. The Okanagan is quite wet at higher elevations so the risk was very very small of a cat 2 getting away earlier than now. But drying has gotten to the stage it's time to
Media today said that parts of the Central Okanagan are now at an extreme rating; so shutting down any burning other than possibly a campfire is a wise move. As far as "armchair advisors" not sure whom you were directing that at but I have had several years of field experience in the BC Forest Service, just so you know.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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The media is lying to you...
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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There's rain and cooler temperatures coming to all of the western provinces this week, including fort nelson and fort mcmurray. That should calm things down at least for now.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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So, how's all that fear mongering going? Have ya got the desired panic effect yet??
Too bad for that rain though, it sure dampens the drought narrative huh? Imagine that huh? A wet long weekend. How many of those have we had in the past hey?
When does it stop? When does the group responsible give it up and realize nature is up on them now matter what?
We will still get fires. But something that is more lacking, that we don't get much of these days is truth!
The fires burning are MANMADE!!! Not from lightning or climate change. MAN MADE!!! And close by reserves! Is there a connection? Why, yes there is!
Gibbering Guilbeault gave the 'stewards' the power to 'regulate' our forests. Trudeau now says its their land.
So, we will endure year after year of fires burning down our cities and towns. Miraculously, not one reserve seems to have been touched. Go figure.
Yes, Canadian Wildfire season has begun. The great burn off threatens.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

Post by JamesBilodeau »

Frisk wrote: Apr 16th, 2024, 12:27 am
JamesBilodeau wrote: Apr 15th, 2024, 4:50 pm Only April and folks are panicking. Fear the heat!! Fear the summer!
The funny think about all this cli9mate change crap is that the rich have not stopped what the rich do.
The only crisis there is affects the poor only. Go figure.
You're confusing "panic" with "preparedness". Nobody is panicking.
Really, saw a lot of panic buying but that must have just been for a long weekend stock up huh? Please, tell me what has been prepared? Do we have a massive sprinkler system set up in interface areas connected to a water reservoir? Do we have things like mobile water cannons stationed in select areas?? Do we have an air contingency ready to pounce on them? How about our men and women fighting these fires? Are they properly equipped with safety gear and support?
Have local fire depts been beefed up with additional resources like a simple bush trucks and backed up by wild land response teams??
Have any arsonists been caught and dealt with? is it just more fear mongering and leftist justification of a government gone fascist?
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Bigdaddy85 wrote: Mar 13th, 2024, 12:28 pm https://www.castanet.net/news/BC/476816 ... ist#476816

We need a wet spring/early summer. We could be in for far worse than last year. Lets hope the weather cooperates!
Gee, got your wish! Rainy night and now a long weekend of rain. So much for the drought fear mongering...
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Wildfire causes.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safe ... e-averages
The current 10-year average, taken from 2012 to 2022, is 1,483 wildfires from April 1 to March 31 the following year. On average, 42% of these are human-caused and 58% are lightning-caused.

For 2023, 26% human caused, 72% lightning caused.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Babba_not_Gump wrote: May 18th, 2024, 3:44 pm Wildfire causes.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safe ... e-averages
The current 10-year average, taken from 2012 to 2022, is 1,483 wildfires from April 1 to March 31 the following year. On average, 42% of these are human-caused and 58% are lightning-caused.

For 2023, 26% human caused, 72% lightning caused.
Am I the only one that remembers summer news stories showing human caused fires accounting for over 50% of the forest fires in 2023, only to have the numbers change in fall once the season was essentially over to the above quoted 26%?

https://globalnews.ca/news/9796293/bc-w ... uspicious/

June 27 2023 they quote 17 fires caused by humans.

https://www.timescolonist.com/local-new ... ni-7197382

June 27 2023 "All 47 wildfires on Vancouver Island this season have been caused by humans, according to the B.C. Wildfire Service"

So I wasn't able to find how many of those 47 were still active at the end of June. Maybe it's nothing, but it does seem like the data may be a bit wishy washy. Best guess is any fire they can't find the cause for they simply list as natural. Nefarious? Completely possible.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Fanboy wrote: May 18th, 2024, 4:17 pm Best guess is any fire they can't find the cause for they simply list as natural. Nefarious? Completely possible.
You've somehow managed to get that right upside down and backwards. In fact, anything that doesn't have an obvious natural cause is often attributed to human caused. That might be something like a downed powerline, like we just saw in Fort Nelson, a myriad of other unintentional human activities that cause a fire start, carelessness, or the odd nefarious intentionally started fires... like the guy in Quebec who started 19 fires and blamed them on climate activists and Steven Guilbeault.
A Canadian man who had pushed a conspiracy theory that the Ottawa government started the record-breaking wildfires in Quebec rather than a result of an overheating planet was arrested and charged with 13 counts of arson and one count of arson with disregard for human life.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1 ... s-to-arson

Human caused fires are a concern and always will be for many reasons. They divert resources, happen in shoulder seasons prior to green-up and they tend to happen closer to development and infrastructure. The stakes are generally higher. However, it's well documented that human caused fires are not driving the large area burned, year over year, and have in fact been a declining factor since the early 1970's.

Here's a graph I put together from the data available in BC and you can see the declining trendline.

Image

If you want to review the published research... I'd suggest you start with;

Piyush Jain, Quinn E Barber, Steve Taylor, et al. Canada Under Fire – Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season. ESS Open Archive . February 28, 2024

and work your way back to;

Hanes, Wang , Jain, Parisien, Little, and Flannigan. Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century Publication: Canadian Journal of Forest Research, November 2018

There's a whole lot of stops you can make in between those two studies.

Bottom line looks to be something like; during the 2023 Canadian Fire Season, nationally, "lightning ignited 59% of the wildfires and lightning-caused wildfires accounted for 93% of the total area burned".
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Drip_Torch wrote: May 18th, 2024, 4:58 pm Bottom line looks to be something like; during the 2023 Canadian Fire Season, nationally, "lightning ignited 59% of the wildfires and lightning-caused wildfires accounted for 93% of the total area burned".
Accounting for 93% of area burned shows they happened in non populated areas where they were left to burn more likely than not, which makes sense as human caused fires will happen where humans are.
Either way, like I stated, the official numbers seemed to shift from mid season last year to the end of the season. So unless the last half of the season saw a large amount of natural fires vs human caused to shift the data points something seems to have been amiss.

And this is an actual question. IF humans caused, by whatever means, the majority of fires, in this climate changed obsessed environment we live in, do you think they would truthfully report those numbers?
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

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Fanboy wrote: May 19th, 2024, 10:01 am
Drip_Torch wrote: May 18th, 2024, 4:58 pm Bottom line looks to be something like; during the 2023 Canadian Fire Season, nationally, "lightning ignited 59% of the wildfires and lightning-caused wildfires accounted for 93% of the total area burned".
Accounting for 93% of area burned shows they happened in non populated areas where they were left to burn more likely than not, which makes sense as human caused fires will happen where humans are.
Either way, like I stated, the official numbers seemed to shift from mid season last year to the end of the season. So unless the last half of the season saw a large amount of natural fires vs human caused to shift the data points something seems to have been amiss.

And this is an actual question. IF humans caused, by whatever means, the majority of fires, in this climate changed obsessed environment we live in, do you think they would truthfully report those numbers?
"Left to burn" isn't the way I would describe it, but yes in more remote areas there may be a modified response that allows it to burn to natural boundaries. Lightning caused fires tend to be more challenging because lightning will start fires, often many of them at once, in areas that are very hard, if not impossible to access. Your Vancouver Island snapshot from June 27th is a little skewed, because by June 27th I wouldn't typically expect anything other than human caused fires.

"The season" runs from April 15 to October 15, but the regions in BC all have their own seasonality. Northeast is where it all typically starts and lightning will start being a factor there, long before it will start being a factor here, or on Vancouver Island.

Image

Here's a graphic that shows when the lightning season typically starts in Western Canada.

Image

We don't hear about lightning caused wildfires in January on Vancouver Island, because obviously wildfires aren't driven by ignitions, they are driven by fuel conditions.

In response to your actual question, no I don't believe there is a Ministry of "they" that changes the fire causes to advance a climate change narrative. BCWS provides a dashboard that reports on the wildfire situation in BC in near real time and I've never noticed them attributing fires to lightning when there isn't any lightning.

Do I have any problem believing the decrease in human caused wildfires? Nope, not at all. Just the deactivated train tracks alone made a huge dent in that number. Factor in the increased regulation around burning, the decrease in forest industry related starts, the increase in spark arresting technologies on everything that drives in the woods and the prevention programs in place... it's easy to understand. When I was 20, it was 3 hours and 4 sheets of paper to light a prescribed burn. Today, it would 4 months and 40 sheets of paper and would involve a small army of credentialed professionals to make it happen.
Last edited by Drip_Torch on May 19th, 2024, 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Canadian Wildfire Season - 2024

Post by Fanboy »

Drip_Torch wrote: May 19th, 2024, 2:26 pm "Left to burn" isn't the way I would describe it, but yes in more remote areas there may be a modified response that allows it to burn to natural boundaries. Lightning caused fires tend to be more challenging because lightning will start fires, often many of them at once, in areas that are very hard, if not impossible to access. Your Vancouver Island snapshot from June 27th is a little skewed, because by June 27th I wouldn't typically expect anything other than human caused fires.

"The season" runs from April 15 to October 15, but the regions in BC all have their own seasonality. Northeast is where it all typically starts and lightning will start being a factor there, long before it will start being a factor here, or on Vancouver Island.

Image

Here's a graphic that shows when the lightning season typically starts in Western Canada.

Image

We don't hear about lightning caused wildfires in January on Vancouver Island, because obviously wildfires aren't driven by ignitions, they are driven by fuel conditions.

In response to your actual question, no I don't believe there is a Ministry of "they" that changes the fire causes to advance a climate change narrative. BCWS provides a dashboard that reports on the wildfire situation in BC in near real time and I've never noticed them attributing fires to lightning when there isn't any lightning.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-the-cana ... re%20miles.
"While Canada does have a policy of letting fires in some remote areas burn out on their own, the government has also simply been overmatched by this year’s record-breaking fire season, which has so far burned more than 32,000 square miles."

The vancouver island stat was not about the time of year, which you are correct about, it was about the stat itself.

Like I said, the data last year, for Canada not just BC, did seem to adjust in fall. So either ALL the fires after July were natural or something was amiss. Believe what you want, as I said, we have lots of examples over the last 4 years with covid "official" numbers, and with the billions being funnelled thru climate change it really isn't a far leap, especially if ANY of their funding is contingent on climate change, which in BC you can bet it is.

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