All things Horgan

[Urbane]

^^ Fun with stats. BC's economy struggled mightily in the 1990s and we've been through this same discussion numerous times before. That same old study gets trotted out and then someone else provides the proof that no, the economy wasn't actually very good in comparison to other provinces. The ultimate proof? 77-2.

By the way:

The 1990s – a lost decade
After leading Canada’s economic growth from 1984 to 1990, BC fell behind in the 1990s. This was reflected in real GDP growth of only 2.9% per year from 1990 to 2001, down over a full point from the previous period. While BC continued to generate jobs in this decade, many of them were part-time.

The impact of the slowdown in BC is seen vividly in Figure 2. BC’s real GDP per capita fell from 8% above the average in the rest of Canada in 1992 to 8% below by 2001, after which it began to recover.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11- ... 96-eng.htm

[OKkayak]

Oh, really?

Yes, really.

[Urbane]

LOL . . .

@VaughnPalmer
#bcpoli Premier John Horgan letter to taxi industry Tuesday lists what NDP has done to "support the industry." One: "We have insisted on Class 4 licences." Previously, New Democrats said that was being done to ensure public safety. Guess he forgot to mention.

[Urbane]

Sorry to see this - from Castanet:

BC loses bragging rights
Tyler Orton / Business in Vancouver - Sep 6, 2019 / 1:23 pm | Story: 265290

Photo: Contributed
B.C. no longer holds the bragging rights to being home to Canada’s lowest unemployment rate.

The province lost 8,300 jobs in August, sending unemployment from 4.7 per cent (revised in Statistics Canada’s latest release from 4.4 per cent) to five per cent month to month, according to data posted Friday (Sept. 6) by the national statistics agency.

Quebec, in turn, usurped B.C.’s longtime claim to the lowest unemployment rate in Canada as la belle province saw a drop of 0.2 percentage points to 4.9 per cent between July and August.

August marks the third consecutive month B.C. has shed jobs, following 4,800 positions lost in July and 3,700 positions lost in June.

Hardest hit sectors in B.C. last month included health care and social assistance (-8,600 jobs); business, building and other support services (-4,800 jobs); and construction (-4,300 jobs).

Gains were made in professional, scientific and technical services (+8,800 jobs); educational services (+3,300 jobs); and agriculture (+2,200 jobs).

While B.C.’s performance lagged in August, Canada as a whole added 81,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7 per cent.

“As encouraging as today's [national] data is, we think concrete evidence on the consumer front will matter more in the Bank of Canada's rate-setting decisions,” TD senior economist Brian DePratto said in a note to investors.

[floppi]

Still that's pretty good, no? I wouldn't want to be in the Atlantic Provinces looking for a job.

[Urbane]

Still that's pretty good, no? I wouldn't want to be in the Atlantic Provinces looking for a job.

I don't like the trend but I'm not surprised.

[madmudder]

Hardest hit sectors in B.C. last month included health care and social assistance (-8,600 jobs); business, building and other support services (-4,800 jobs); and construction (-4,300 jobs).

I'm in construction and we are having a hard time filling many positions from skilled trades to unskilled.

[Hurtlander]

Sorry to see this - from Castanet:

BC loses bragging rights
Tyler Orton / Business in Vancouver - Sep 6, 2019 / 1:23 pm | Story: 265290

Photo: Contributed
B.C. no longer holds the bragging rights to being home to Canada’s lowest unemployment rate.

The province lost 8,300 jobs in August, sending unemployment from 4.7 per cent (revised in Statistics Canada’s latest release from 4.4 per cent) to five per cent month to month, according to data posted Friday (Sept. 6) by the national statistics agency.

Quebec, in turn, usurped B.C.’s longtime claim to the lowest unemployment rate in Canada as la belle province saw a drop of 0.2 percentage points to 4.9 per cent between July and August.

August marks the third consecutive month B.C. has shed jobs, following 4,800 positions lost in July and 3,700 positions lost in June.

Hardest hit sectors in B.C. last month included health care and social assistance (-8,600 jobs); business, building and other support services (-4,800 jobs); and construction (-4,300 jobs).

Gains were made in professional, scientific and technical services (+8,800 jobs); educational services (+3,300 jobs); and agriculture (+2,200 jobs).

While B.C.’s performance lagged in August, Canada as a whole added 81,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7 per cent.

“As encouraging as today's [national] data is, we think concrete evidence on the consumer front will matter more in the Bank of Canada's rate-setting decisions,” TD senior economist Brian DePratto said in a note to investors.

The numbers are even worse than that... there’s few thousand sawmill workers that have been permanently laid off over the summer, and there’s more permanent mill closures coming up. Those lost jobs won’t even show up on the stats until the laid off workers have used up all their severance pay, at which time they can apply for Employment Insurance and become part of the lost jobs statistics... Most of the permanently laid off mill workers in my area had between 20-40 years service, they get 10 days pay for every year service at the mill.... there’s going to be a bunch of EI claims going in sometime in the next 200 -400 days..

[Urban Cowboy]

I'm concerned despite our government telling us how fantastic our economy is.

[Urbane]

I'm concerned despite our government telling us how fantastic our economy is.

You're right to be concerned. From Castanet:

Rethinking BC budget
The Canadian Press - Sep 10, 2019 / 12:33 pm | Story: 265519

Photo: BC Gov't
British Columbia's finance minister is downgrading economic projections with a forecast of lower growth and a reduced budget surplus.

Carole James presented the revised financial forecast in her first quarterly budget update.

She says global economic uncertainty, the struggling forest industry, dips in commodity exports and lower retail sales have prompted the economic revisions.

B.C.'s economic growth is now forecast at 1.7 per cent this year and 1.9 per cent in 2020, down from earlier projections.

James says B.C.'s budget surplus for 2019-2020 is predicted to be $179 million, a drop of $95 million from the estimate in February's budget.

The minister says the provincial economy remains strong with an increase in employment of more than three per cent.

[Gone_Fishin]

Good job NDP, you're doing exactly what people with IQ's over 20 knew you would - destroy BC's economy.


Vaughn Palmer: Subdued James dials back B.C.'s fiscal forecast


VICTORIA — Finance Minister Carole James started 2019 on a positive note, tabling a budget that increased her earlier growth forecast for what would be the second full year under the NDP.

James predicted the B.C. economy would grow by 2.4 per cent, almost half a point higher than the more cautious outlook she’d offered earlier.

She credited the upgrade to positive developments on trade, the decision by a consortium of investors to proceed with the multi-billion dollar LNG Canada project, and encouraging forecasts from private sector economists.

“We can be optimistic about how we chart our course from here,” she assured the legislature on Feb. 19, the day the budget was tabled.

But it was a more subdued James who met with reporters in the provincial capital on Tuesday for a quarterly update on the financial year that began April 1.

Gone was her 2.4 per cent growth forecast for this year and her almost-as-optimistic projection of 2.3 per cent for 2020.

James now predicts 1.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively, for a scaling down in the forecast of more than a full point over the two years.

“The ministry’s lower forecast of economic growth in 2019 and 2020 largely reflects a decline in export activity, slower growth in retail sales and, to a lesser extent, weaker than anticipated home sales.”

By the numbers, retail sales were expected to increase by four per cent this year. The ministry now expects a more modest one per cent.

Home sales were expected to recover by three per cent this year, after dropping by 24 per cent in 2018. But upon reflection the ministry now expects another down year for sales, with a further reduction of 17 per cent.

The decline manifested in slumping returns from the property transfer tax, which brought in more than $2 billion in the year the New Democrats took office. James scaled down projected returns for this year to $1.4 billion.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/column ... l-forecast

[Urban Cowboy]

Indeed and there's time for further decline yet given what I see first hand.

I suspect deficit budgets could well be on the horizon yet, given how much spending the NDPG's have been doing based on overly optimistic projections, and more importantly not allowing enough time to see how changes they've implemented affect the BC economy.

Generally putting the screws to small business does not result in government revenue windfalls.

[gordon_as]

Must say..... It's nice to drop into the forum and see people debating , with numbers and statistics etc. instead of just name calling. A refreshing change since my last visit. Carry on. My personal opinion is that we are doing about as well as can be expected. Still feel that the Liberals are going to have to find something real and substantial if they want to win the next election. I get spammed by the BC Liberal party daily on Facebook , and they are ranting and raving about problems and issues with the current government. What's funny about that is that the problems that they are ranting about are the ones that they are responsible for in the first place. They are getting slaughtered in the comments sections , but they keep posting.

[southy]

Yup - really good debating. . I'm amazed at how you ndp/g followers cannot accept the fact that maybe just maybe your fearless leader and his ilk just might be screwing up big time.

[Urban Cowboy]

Then there are little tidbits like this......... https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-s ... htm#265712

In a press release, Cassidy deVeer, president of the local association, said Kelowna has 3,000 fewer jobs since the tax was introduced.

....also not painting a pretty picture.

3000 fewer people putting money into the provincial treasury, and that's just in Kelowna, so the picture truly isn't near as rosy as the NDP and Carole James would have us believe.

Yet more job losses locally.......... https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/2 ... n-at-Tolko

Seems to be way too many red flags waving lately to put much stock in what the NDP tells us about BC's economy.

The mill shutting down is also going to negatively affect all those driving the chip trucks that haul away the wood chips.