Liberals back in the lead (or did they ever fall behind?)

[The Green Barbarian]

ummm people still put faith in polls? especially after what happened with obama part 2 and how incensed fox news was. and the red surge last election? fools......

None of this post above makes any sense. If you are looking for actual examples of polls failing, look no further than the complete miss on the election of Trump. Huffpoop was calling it 98% for sure in the bag for Hillary, the night before the election!

I don't trust polls done by Leftists, like Nanos, because they never factor in the obvious - just because you poll a stoner loser and he says he is voting NDP or Liberal, doesn't mean that you can count that guy in your poll. He's never going to vote. Leftist polls are almost always wrong, because they give the same weight to a leftist as a conservative. And that just doesn't work.

[hobbyguy]

The thing about polls is that they don't pick up on the "why".

A couple of examples:

The Liberals have been losing support in BC. I suspect that is partly a reaction to the sham usurper government in Victoria. The far left and ludicrous junk actions by the BC NDP/LEAP are making people think more toward the right of the spectrum, more or less tarring being left of center with dumb stuff coming out of Victoria.

Ontario has a premier that quite frankly, I view as more NDP than Liberal. A number of Ontario policies, like the LEAP driven silly wind program have hurt Ontario residents quite visibly. That has folks looking for an alternative, and the NDP ain't it - especially when they see "the mess in the west" (the NDP is only worse option than the Wynners). That has many Ontario giving the Conservatives a hard look. As Wynne has floundered from mess to mess, the momentum just has to be in favor of the Conservatives.

The very public fight between the BC NDP/LEAP goofs and the Alberta "working person" NDP just have to have folks recoiling from the left lean. All across the country.

The PR nonsense is being ginned up again in the west, and that's an issue that the Liberals reneged on - and no matter what, that will cost them a few votes - unless the NDP implodes, as I suspect the NDP LEAPers will pick up that banner. BUT, if the LEAP dominate the NDP conversation, all bets are off on that one.

The NDP civil war, LEAP versus traditional NDP is having all kinds of effects. I suspect that it will hurt the NDP badly, and Jagmeet seems incapable of resolving it. The question becomes whether or not the NDP implodes over it. I think so, but that's a tough call. And if the NDP implodes over this civil war, do their voters stay home? pick another party - and if so which one?

The Liberals are caught up in that mess, in particular over the TMX pipeline. How the Liberals and the government handle the nonsense that the grinning fool Horgan and his LEAP leader Heyman have stirred up will be a key factor. Personally, I think the Liberals/government have to very hard nosed about it. That will be a real test for JT, as being hard nosed doesn't seem to be his forte - although one would have to think it is there somewhere as his papa sure could be. IF the Liberals can put out the arson fire that Heyman and the BC LEAP party have lit, then I can see the Liberals rebounding significantly.

To a very large extent, the headwinds for the Liberals at this point are not of their making. The Ontario election and the BC LEAP/NDP arsonist dumpster fire will determine a lot.

[The Green Barbarian]

The Liberals are caught up in that mess, in particular over the TMX pipeline. How the Liberals and the government handle the nonsense that the grinning fool Horgan and his LEAP leader Heyman have stirred up will be a key factor. Personally, I think the Liberals/government have to very hard nosed about it. That will be a real test for JT, as being hard nosed doesn't seem to be his forte - although one would have to think it is there somewhere as his papa sure could be. IF the Liberals can put out the arson fire that Heyman and the BC LEAP party have lit, then I can see the Liberals rebounding significantly.

.

I can agree with you on this one HG. I just don't think the "will" is there for JT and his gang of carbon-taxing social engineers to push the TMX pipeline ahead. They'd rather just sit back in the weeds and lead from the rear. You can't tell me that McKenna really wants this built, or is smart enough to understand why it should be built. I do agree that if JT does finally grow a pair and starts getting involved he might sway enough Canadians to give him and his vapid gang another kick at the can. I still say that he is doomed to follow his evil dad and win a minority next time. Will he have the stomach to keep fighting to get back to majority territory? Will Canadians be dumb enough to give him another majority? These are questions we will see answered in the future. If I were Andrew Scheer I wouldn't be playing football with any reporters any time soon.

[casey60]

JT is already working on bringing back all those promises he broke so the electorate, they hope, will fall for it again. I don't.

[Glacier]

ummm people still put faith in polls? especially after what happened with obama part 2 and how incensed fox news was. and the red surge last election? fools......

Wrong! The polls are great; it's people's interpretation of the polls that you should not have faith in. Trump had a 1/3 chance of winning according to the polls, but many pundits claimed erroneously that it was something like a 2% chance. Perhaps wishful thinking, but in any case, If there was a 1/3 chance of a rainstorm today, would you set up your garage sale table with the assumption that it will definitely not rain? Of course not!

Closer to home, the polls nailed Trudeau's win, predicting something like 40% of the vote for the Liberals and 30% for the Conservatives. I looked at the polls the day before election day, and called it. In fact, some morons on Castanet were claiming the Conservatives were going to win even though the polls repeatedly showed day after day, month after month that they could not get above 33% when 35% is needed to win even a minority.

[The Green Barbarian]

In fact, some morons on Castanet were claiming the Conservatives were going to win even though the polls repeatedly showed day after day, month after month that they could not get above 33% when 35% is needed to win even a minority.

It was no different than the morons who were claiming that Harper wasn't going to win a majority in 2011. I called that one and was right, because the pollsters in Canada were giving equal weighting to leftist losers and Conservatives in their polling, even though everyone knows leftist losers vote in far lower numbers, due to general laziness and stupidity.

[hobbyguy]

One of the things that polls can never pick up on is momentum. Momentum swings can be rather sudden, and if they happen close to the election date, the polls can look kinda dumb.

Right now, I don't see any of the Canadian federal parties with any real momentum. The issues going around are kinda small.

The wild card I am watching is the populist swing happening in Quebec, and wondering if that will move west into Ontario. Doug Ford is a pretty darn good populist, and if he gets it going in Ontario, I figure that will benefit the Conservatives federally. But a really iffy proposition at this point, although if I was in Ontario, I might be on the "anybody but Wynne" bandwagon.

Couple that with the NDP-LEAP civil war, led by the dumpster fire in BC, and it looks like a toss up between the Liberals and Conservatives. A Ford win, and the Liberals are on the hot seat. An NDP implosion could help the Liberals some, but methinks not enough IF Scheer and the Conservatives can get some momentum - which so far is lacking.

Gonna be interesting. The Liberals will not have the momentum of "anybody but Harper", so they will have to generate some from within.