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Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 12:22 pm
by The Green Barbarian
I have a new phrase thanks to a guy in Regina yesterday at JT's town hall: "The Liberals are spending like a drunken farm wife after harvest in New York City". HA HA HA

The spending by the Liberals is a huge issue. As much as the brain-washed Liberal-loving sheep here want to apologize and make up excuses or even worse say "Look over there, it's HARPER!!!" Sorry, ain't going to work. Canadians don't like drunken farm wife spending.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 12:26 pm
by Omnitheo
floppi wrote:*removed*


I think it's worthwhile for people to know the record of a party if they are going to vote for it.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 12:27 pm
by Omnitheo
The Green Barbarian wrote:I have a new phrase thanks to a guy in Regina yesterday at JT's town hall: "The Liberals are spending like a drunken farm wife after harvest in New York City". HA HA HA

The spending by the Liberals is a huge issue. As much as the brain-washed Liberal-loving sheep here want to apologize and make up excuses or even worse say "Look over there, it's HARPER!!!" Sorry, ain't going to work. Canadians don't like drunken farm wife spending.


Saying something wrong multiple times doesn't make it true.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 12:28 pm
by hobbyguy
GB - actually the numbers I used all come from information that is accessible if you search the internet.

The federal subsidy for wind and solar is only $.01/kWh, and fortunately we don't have that much wind and solar in Canada. Most of it goes to the Ontario black hole of messed up electricity supply.

Probably the biggest $$ thing I came across in the "renewable energy" field is the investment in tidal energy for Atlantic Canada. I didn't count that as it is a one time Quixotic venture, with no ongoing commitment.

As far as the GST is concerned, I agree with the notion of raising the GST. However, there are some key points to reversing that spendthrift (tax expenditure) that Harper and the CONservatives left behind. The first is that we are in the process of reversing the mortgaging of our future that the Harper CONservatives embarked upon with their policy of forcing extraordinarily low interest rates to continue for far too long. Given the asset inflation that the super low interest rates and loose credit policies have created, which is reflected in very, very high personal debt levels, it would not be prudent to add a GST increase on top of the interest rate increases. It is highly likely that double whammy of higher interest rates and higher GST would have far too many negative consequences.

The order of priorities that I see is:

1. Normalize interest rates/credit conditions. To soften the blow of that, some compensatory stimulus spending by government. Both of those are being done.

2. Reduce and remove the stimulus spending as the economy adjusts to the higher rates and tighter credit conditions (probably 2-4 years? Data driven timeline).

3. Consider tax increases to reverse Harper's imprudent cuts (GST is only one option) when the economy has adjusted to the above.

Your anti-welfare obsession simply won't fly. The amount of abuse in the welfare systems is perhaps 5-10%. You will never eliminate that small percentage entirely, especially as welfare is provincially administered. If you look at the actual benefits to society from welfare, and factor in that welfare is pretty much instantly recycled through the economy, the net benefits from playing "Scrooge" with welfare are zero or worse. That aside, if you eliminated a maximum of 10% from welfare abuse, you would get a net budgetary gain for the federal government of perhaps $1 billion.

So that brings us to $1.8 billion +/- in savings so far from your suggestions. Still a very, very long way from the deficit.

IF any party were adopt a platform at this time that has all of these things in it:

1. Increase the GST by 2%
2. Slash welfare
3. Shut down the CBC
4. Eliminate renewable energy subsidies entirely
5. Introduce a constitutional amendment to eliminate equalization
6. Introduce a constitutional amendment to eliminate aboriginal status
7. Stop spending on infrastructure

How many votes would it get in Canada? Certainly wouldn't get mine - it is in my view, an un-Canadian platform. It is also a platform that would have pretty much zero chance of implementation.

My guess is maybe 1-2% of the vote at best.

The base problem is all surrounding interest rates, credit conditions, and the Harper CONservative ill advised and imprudent tax cuts. You simply can not get out of that ideologically driven and political expediency box in a hurry. It is why I call the Harper CONservative period "the bungle decade". When you think about it on a slightly smaller scale, the BC NDP of the 1990s is the best analogy. The 1990s BC NDP fluffed everything up by following rampant ideological courses of action, investing in the wrong things, and chasing political expediency. It took what? 10-15 years to straighten out that mess.

Like it or not, the Harper CONservative bungle decade is going to take 10-15 years to sort out and repair. Some of the damage, such as FNs relations, will likely take much longer as in social context, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Harper's "nastiness" had the opposite reaction of creating radicals. We see it in enviro-ideologues, we see it with a few FN folks, we see it in many areas. Harper and crew "gave the finger" to a LOT of groups of people, and hardened their positions. It may well take a generation to repair that damage.

I can not see how Canadians would want to revert to that period of "Harper nastiness" and division. We need instead to find new compromises that can work for all. They won't come overnight - and any pol who says they can is flat out fibbing or is a few chapters short of a book.

It could happen, anything is possible, but I doubt it. Voters have memories. Too short sometimes, but methinks most will remember the nastiness that characterized the Harper bungle decade and reject it.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 12:32 pm
by normaM
from Global News
"Most strikingly, when respondents were asked to ascribe 16 traits to either Trudeau, Scheer, Singh or “none of the above,” Trudeau came out on top above his Conservative and NDP rivals on all 16.

These include 14 positive traits such as “Someone who is best to deal with President Donald Trump,” “Someone who will best lead Canada on the world stage” and “Someone you’d have a beer or a coffee with” and two negative ones, namely “Someone who wants to impose his values on others” and “Someone who’s willing to divide Canadians for political advantage.”

What an odd thing to vote for someone you'd like to have coffee or a beer with. As if they ever would join a mere mortal.

LIBs election to lose but JT still seems to be the popular ( or at least better known) pick.

AB will go CON.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:16 pm
by Merry
normaM wrote: “Someone who is best to deal with President Donald Trump,”

This one surprises me, because Trudeau appears to do nothing more than antagonize Trump whenever he gets the chance.

Do people really believe that deliberately irritating the leader of the free world is a good strategy?

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:28 pm
by oldtrucker
Merry wrote:
normaM wrote: “Someone who is best to deal with President Donald Trump,”

This one surprises me, because Trudeau appears to do nothing more than antagonize Trump whenever he gets the chance.

Do people really believe that deliberately irritating the leader of the free world is a good strategy?


If oldtrucker was PM, he would make a point of getting along with Mr. Trump, and he would even go to judo matches with Mr. Putin.
I can see why JT wont mesh well with Trump... being a globalist and feminist. They are apples and oranges.Trump can out negotiate him(or pretty much anyone else on the planet) on any issue and JT knows it. I think he's scared of him.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:38 pm
by Gone_Fishin
Omnitheo wrote:Saying something wrong multiple times doesn't make it true.


Trudeau doesn't seem to understand that.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:40 pm
by floppi
oldtrucker wrote:
Merry wrote:This one surprises me, because Trudeau appears to do nothing more than antagonize Trump whenever he gets the chance.

Do people really believe that deliberately irritating the leader of the free world is a good strategy?


If oldtrucker was PM, he would make a point of getting along with Mr. Trump, and he would even go to judo matches with Mr. Putin.
I can see why JT wont mesh well with Trump... being a globalist and feminist. They are apples and oranges.Trump can out negotiate him(or pretty much anyone else on the planet) on any issue and JT knows it. I think he's scared of him.


:spitcoffee: You think Trump can out negotiate JT? Seems to me Trump can't negotiate with anyone or have you been in a cave for the last couple of years? Art of the Deal is a big time myth that's been exposed time and time again. Take a quick boo at what's happening in the States now....that's not negotiating. [icon_lol2.gif] I don't see any of the leaders that will be running in the 2019 getting along with Trump. You have to have a name like Putin, Kim un jong, Duterte or some other neofacist dictator to get along with him.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:43 pm
by Gone_Fishin
I wonder why Trudeau is less popular than Trump in recent polls?

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:48 pm
by The Green Barbarian
floppi wrote:
:spitcoffee: You think Trump can out negotiate JT?.


a monkey in a coma could out negotiate our air-head in chief. He's clueless!

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 1:56 pm
by floppi
Gone_Fishin wrote:I wonder why Trudeau is less popular than Trump in recent polls?


Source??

This is from Oct 2018 but at least I have a source :D

365 days to go — and Trudeau's Liberals have the edge on the 2019 election

Parties that lead in the polls one year before an election win ... most of the time


A lot can happen in a year.

But all else being equal, a party would prefer to be ahead rather than behind in the run-up to a general election — even with a full year still to go. Which is where Justin Trudeau's Liberals find themselves with 365 days left before the 2019 federal election.

The next vote is scheduled to be held one year from today, on Oct. 21, 2019. The polls right now suggest the odds are in Trudeau's favour. But the political environment remains competitive and volatile.

Still, history is on the Liberals' side. In more than three-quarters of elections held since the Second World War, the party leading in the polls 12 months out has held on to win 12 months later.

According to the CBC's Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals lead with 37.3 per cent support nationwide, putting them four percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, who trail with 33.1 per cent.

The New Democrats find themselves stuck in third place with 15.5 per cent support, followed by the Greens at seven per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 3.9 per cent. Another three per cent of Canadians say they would vote for another party — including the 1.4 per cent who say they will back Maxime Bernier's People's Party.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenie ... -1.4870074

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 2:00 pm
by floppi
The Green Barbarian wrote:
floppi wrote:
:spitcoffee: You think Trump can out negotiate JT?.


a monkey in a coma could out negotiate our air-head in chief. He's clueless!


If you mean Trump yeah he is clueless....everyone knows it.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 2:17 pm
by oldtrucker
floppi wrote: You have to have a name like Putin, Kim un jong, Duterte or some other neofacist dictator to get along with him.


Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Trump supporter and yes, he is clueless on a great number of things.
Kim Jong tested a deliverable 150-275 kiloton fusion device in early 2017. Since then, NKorea has built up its nuclear deterrent and is now on par with other minor nuclear powers like Israel, UK etc with 200 warheads or less. I'm not sure that if it were any other person other than Trump calling Kim Jong out that we would not have had a nuclear exchange by now. We came closer to it in 2017 than we did during the Cuban missile crisis. Seattle /Tacoma/military complex Kitsap is not a radioactive sheet of glass today-but it could have been had things not gone the way they did. In other words...if it wasn't for Trump in that situation, we wouldn't be having the fun of posting on Cnet.

Re: 2019 an election year

PostPosted: Jan 11th, 2019, 2:21 pm
by The Green Barbarian
floppi wrote:
If you mean Trump yeah he is clueless....everyone knows it.


Since I live in Canada, unfortunately our air-head in chief is Trudeau. Clueless Trudeau.