2019 an election year

Re: 2019 an election year

Postby hobbyguy » Jan 26th, 2019, 11:04 am

Vacancyrate wrote:
hobbyguy wrote:Are the NDP suggesting we support a crooked thug like Maduro??? Yup, they are!


No.

They are suggesting that we don't interfere with another countries elections and start a coup d'état to further Canadian business interests.

I guess you wouldn't have a problem if China decided to only recognize the leader of the NDP as the "true leader of Canada"?


Wakey wakey! Canada has virtually zero business interest in Venezuela. Svend must be off his meds to support Maduro, and Singh is obviously off in dipper la-la-la goofy LEAPer land without any real clue as to what is going on.

Maduro is killing his own people, 10% + of the citizenry have become refugees and are flooding into neighboring countries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election

"Because of this, the United Nations human rights chief,[12][13] European Union,[14][15] the Organization of American States, the Lima Group[16] and countries such as Australia and the United States rejected the electoral process.[17][18] However, countries such as China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Turkey and others recognized the election result."

Note that China has been propping up the corrupt Venezuelan regime in exchange for cheap oil, as has Cuba.

Typical NDP, never mind reality, just wander off into dipper dreamland ideological utopia. The world don't work that way.
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby jimmy4321 » Jan 26th, 2019, 11:07 am

NDP are playing it like Dimples, opposition to everything without a thought.
Their role as they see it is only to appose the government , it gives them purpose.

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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby hobbyguy » Jan 26th, 2019, 12:19 pm

In context, I find it rather interesting that Harper will be in Kelowna promoting his book, which berates populist nonsense and is very much against the populist nonsense that resulted in the Brexit mess. Putting aside the populist cards that Harper played during election periods (like the Niqab nonsense), it does put Harper at odds with Andrew Scheer.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-what-would-possess-andrew-scheer-to-endorse-this-brexit-madness


"Andrew Coyne: What would possess Andrew Scheer to endorse this Brexit madness?
No Canadian political leader has any business signing on to a project that would tear apart an existing political union"

SNIP

"So, naturally, Andrew Scheer is all in favour. The Canadian Conservative leader took the opportunity of this week’s carnage to reiterate his support for Brexit, first expressed in an op-ed just before the 2016 referendum that committed the United Kingdom to its present course."

This is one issue where Andrew Scheer has in fact actually taken a stand. Firmly in the Nigel Farage camp.

It certainly raises some questions. I have issues with Harper, mostly because of poor fiscal, economic and social management but I recognize that Harper would be so shallow as to stand with a cowardly snollygoster like Nigel Farage.

Why do I characterize Nigel Farage as a cowardly snollygoster? Because as soon as Brexit succeeded in the referendum, he ran away and hid, and demonstrated that he had no knowledge or idea of how to make Brexit work. In running away, Nigel Farage did demonstrate that he knew that Brexit was an unworkable mess. So why did he tout it? Solely because it benefited Nigel - and not the country.

I understand the feelings that created Brexit. I have long not been a fan of NAFTA - but I recognize that too much water has passed under the bridge to simply abandon NAFTA. I also recognize that the pre NAFTA world no longer exists, and as such any longings for the world of the past are little more than illusions.

Brexit is same sort of mess. You can't go back any more than long time residents of Kelowna can return the city to the way it was in in 1975. The wistfulness for pre EU is not a bad thing, just entirely unrealistic. So I find myself in agreement with Harper on this issue, and any such other similar issues.

Andrew Coyne puts it very succinctly:

"But there is a difference between what one might choose ex ante, in advance of such developments, and what one might choose ex post, after having been a member of the union for 40-odd years, with all of the economic, legal and institutional ties that have built up over that time. Brexit would have been an enormously destructive act even had its advocates given any serious thought to what they wanted to replace it with, or how to go about it."

So indeed, what is Andrew Scheer thinking? Is it a crass and self serving play for a few votes - betraying a shallowness of purpose? Or, even more troubling, is this an indication of a shallowness of thought?
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby jimmy4321 » Jan 26th, 2019, 12:43 pm

He was take questions if time permits . What!!! :200:
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby floppi » Jan 31st, 2019, 1:22 pm

Read'em and Weep JT haters.....this is why the Libs will be back to power in 2019.

Trudeau Liberals well-positioned going into 2019 election

The Trudeau Liberals are well-positioned to hold onto government going into next October’s national election.

Why? The story isn’t in today’s national vote numbers, where the Liberals hold a five-point lead over the second-place Conservatives, with the NDP well behind in third place. The story of the Liberal Party’s strength is told in the regional and sub-regional numbers.

Experienced political observers know that there is no such thing as a national election in Canada. Our national elections are really a series of regional and sub-regional elections all held on the same day.

What do the regional and sub-regional numbers show? That the Liberals are strong because they’re doing well where they need to win enough seats to form government again — that’s Ontario, Quebec and B.C.[ The Conservatives, on the other hand, are only five points behind the Liberals in the national vote numbers, but are over-performing in regions where there aren’t enough seats available to impact the election outcome.

Case in point is the huge CPC lead in Alberta — the biggest gap between first and second place in the country.

Alberta only has 34 seats, though. It’s a similar story in the Prairie region where the CPC has a strong lead, too. Together, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have a total of 28 seats. Compare this to Ontario (121 seats) and Quebec (78 seats), two provinces where the Liberals lead. This disparity in regional seat numbers shows how doing well in popular support sometimes doesn’t translate into the number of seats won. A party must do well in places where it counts in terms of seats. Over-performing in votes in regions with few seats is what analysts refer to as inefficient voting. The Conservatives are suffering from this in the current numbers.

Apart from their lead in most of the West, the one other bright spot for the Conservatives is that they are competitive with the Liberals in Toronto’s 905 regions.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4778572/just ... -election/
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby Omnitheo » Jan 31st, 2019, 2:09 pm

If only there were some alternate form of elections that gave proportional representation...
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby hobbyguy » Jan 31st, 2019, 5:55 pm

Omnitheo wrote:If only there were some alternate form of elections that gave proportional representation...


Sorry, our democracy is better without PR nonsense.

There are ways to improve our democracy, but the electoral system is the weakest and least relevant change we could make. If we want a real change, then cap party donations at $100 and have Elections Canada actually run the election - equal access events, advertising platforms etc. .... and NO 3rd party advertising after the writ drops...

ETA: https://special.nationalpost.com/follow-the-money/feature
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby hobbyguy » Jan 31st, 2019, 6:43 pm

The Conservative partisans make much of the Conservative Party lead in fundraising. Yup, it can make a difference. But may not.

The 2018 US Senate and Congressional election results were a split on that factor. The Dems outspent the Republicans on both the Senate and congressional elections. The Dems won the House, but went backwards in the Senate.

In our last federal election, both the Conservatives and the NDP parties outspent the Liberals - and the Liberals won.

We know that the Conservative partisan prairies are really ginned up for this election. They are donating like crazy. The clearest totals (outdated) that I saw by region showed Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had donated 3 times as much as the traditional stingy donors in Quebec, despite Quebec having about a third more residents. The NDP gets 70% of its donations from small donors - and so their weak fundraising belies the size of their voter base. The average Liberal donor gives about $50 (which makes their 4th Qtr 2018 fundraising actually look fairly strong). I couldn't find the figure for the Conservatives.

42% of political donations in Canada are so small that they don't meet reporting requirements. So their is a big pool of donors, that give only a little, but they vote.

Not much in the way of total donations comes from the Maritimes - but they vote and have a fair number of seats.

So while every party would like to be at the top of the donations list, it is not the be all, end all.
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby floppi » Feb 1st, 2019, 12:03 am

hobbyguy wrote:The Conservative partisans make much of the Conservative Party lead in fundraising. Yup, it can make a difference. But may not.

The 2018 US Senate and Congressional election results were a split on that factor. The Dems outspent the Republicans on both the Senate and congressional elections. The Dems won the House, but went backwards in the Senate.

In our last federal election, both the Conservatives and the NDP parties outspent the Liberals - and the Liberals won.

We know that the Conservative partisan prairies are really ginned up for this election. They are donating like crazy. The clearest totals (outdated) that I saw by region showed Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had donated 3 times as much as the traditional stingy donors in Quebec, despite Quebec having about a third more residents.


It just doesn't matter what the West does, the real voting power is in the East, specifically Ontario and Quebec. That's Canadian politics in a nutshell.
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby GordonH » Feb 1st, 2019, 12:25 am

To win a majority in next Federal election a party needs 170 MP's (starting in East coast going west):
New Foundland & Labrador 7
PEI 4
Nova Scotia 11
New Brunswick 10
Quebec 78
Ontario 121
Manitoba 14
Saskatchewan 14
Alberta 34
BC 42
Nunavut 1
NWT 1
Yukon 1
For grand total of 338
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby hobbyguy » Feb 1st, 2019, 1:14 am

floppi wrote:
hobbyguy wrote:The Conservative partisans make much of the Conservative Party lead in fundraising. Yup, it can make a difference. But may not.

The 2018 US Senate and Congressional election results were a split on that factor. The Dems outspent the Republicans on both the Senate and congressional elections. The Dems won the House, but went backwards in the Senate.

In our last federal election, both the Conservatives and the NDP parties outspent the Liberals - and the Liberals won.

We know that the Conservative partisan prairies are really ginned up for this election. They are donating like crazy. The clearest totals (outdated) that I saw by region showed Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had donated 3 times as much as the traditional stingy donors in Quebec, despite Quebec having about a third more residents.


It just doesn't matter what the West does, the real voting power is in the East, specifically Ontario and Quebec. That's Canadian politics in a nutshell.


Actually, the west matters a lot. Without BC the Liberals would be a minority government. Without Alberta, the Conservatives would have little or no chance of a majority.

The Liberals got 29 seats in the west last election. The Conservatives got 54 seats in the west. Very much "the balance of power". Methinks even more so this upcoming election - which will be a tight one, as I suspect the Conservatives will make gains in Ontario.

It is part of the myth of western alienation that the west does not matter. It does - a LOT. In a very tight election, BC tips the balance, and/or makes the difference between minority or majority government. Add in the seats that swing in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba - and the west has a lot of voice and influence in Ottawa.
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby The Green Barbarian » Feb 1st, 2019, 6:47 am

jimmy4321 wrote:NDP are playing it like Dimples, opposition to everything without a thought.
Their role as they see it is only to appose the government , it gives them purpose.


Who is Dimples?
Justin Trudeau is a peanut-chucking snollygoster snowflake. But he has nice dimples. Remember, the hypocrisy of the Left knows no bounds.

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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby floppi » Feb 1st, 2019, 8:36 am

The Green Barbarian wrote:
jimmy4321 wrote:NDP are playing it like Dimples, opposition to everything without a thought.
Their role as they see it is only to appose the government , it gives them purpose.


Who is Dimples?


Same guy as Hair n Socks, no?
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby The Green Barbarian » Feb 1st, 2019, 8:54 am

floppi wrote:
Same guy as Hair n Socks, no?


Oh. Justin Trudeau, our dimwit PM. Got it.
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Re: 2019 an election year

Postby Ka-El » Feb 1st, 2019, 9:21 am

jimmy4321 wrote:NDP are playing it like Dimples, opposition to everything without a thought.
Their role as they see it is only to appose the government , it gives them purpose.

Aside from chucking peanuts, has dimples even provided a clue as to why he would be a good PM,
and not just a compounding of error. What would he be doing if he wasn't in the role of critic?
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