Alberta: more bad news coming

[fluffy]

Sorry pal, I'm not buying it. Simple as that.

[ckil]

Sorry pal, I'm not buying it. Simple as that.

Of course you don't. Time will continue to prove you wrong.

[Alien Head Dude]

Given the industry has realized its hardest blow in history because of Covid and is now rebounding, it is safe to say that hiring will increase.

It is safe to say hiring will increase somewhat over the short term as some workers are called back but there is little reason to believe that will continue or grow over the long term. This is what people who have actually worked in the sector are realizing. Over time, as we continue to transition away from fossil fuel dependence (moving towards electric vehicles, increased development of public transportation infrastructure, alternative energy sources for heating, etc.) the overall demand for oil should be expected to drop. You have some evidence to the contrary I’d love to see it.

If you prefer to have horrible countries and lower environmental laws to supply the demand rather than your neighbours, I feel sorry for you. What a disgrace Canadians have turned into.

Huh? Where did I say I would prefer to have horrible countries and lower environmental laws to supply the demand rather than our neighbours? I know you’ve read other posts I’ve made on this subject. I support resource development and pipeline construction and have often argued we refine our own product. That doesn’t mean I’m blind to what is happening in the world around me and to recognize significant change is afoot. I’m reminded of a poster who was doubling down on the purchase of Blackberry stocks while missing drops in real estate cycles waiting for a 40% crash in the market and ultimately buying at a high point in these cycles. Time has continually proved this poster to be wrong. Executives in these companies that want to remain relevant are already considering the changes, challenges and opportunities ahead.

Suncor: Energy Transition Will Destroy Oil Demand

Low-carbon technologies could disrupt global oil demand in the not-too-distant future the way COVID-19 crushed demand during the lockdowns worldwide, Mark Little, chief executive of one of Canada’s largest oil producers, Suncor Energy, wrote in an opinion piece published on Monday.

“The temporary economic lockdown triggered by the 2020 pandemic is giving us a glimpse into a not-too-distant future where the transformation of our energy system could disrupt demand on a similar scale. Disruption breeds opportunity and forward-looking companies and countries will need to step up and lead,” Little and Laura Kilcrease, CEO of Alberta Innovates, wrote in an article in the Corporate Knights magazine.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/suncor-energy ... 00057.html

[ckil]

Given the industry has realized its hardest blow in history because of Covid and is now rebounding, it is safe to say that hiring will increase.

It is safe to say hiring will increase somewhat over the short term as some workers are called back but there is little reason to believe that will continue or grow over the long term. This is what people who have actually worked in the sector are realizing. Over time, as we continue to transition away from fossil fuel dependence (moving towards electric vehicles, increased development of public transportation infrastructure, alternative energy sources for heating, etc.) the overall demand for oil should be expected to drop. You have some evidence to the contrary I’d love to see it.

If you prefer to have horrible countries and lower environmental laws to supply the demand rather than your neighbours, I feel sorry for you. What a disgrace Canadians have turned into.

Huh? Where did I say I would prefer to have horrible countries and lower environmental laws to supply the demand rather than our neighbours? I know you’ve read other posts I’ve made on this subject. I support resource development and pipeline construction and have often argued we refine our own product. That doesn’t mean I’m blind to what is happening in the world around me and to recognize significant change is afoot. I’m reminded of a poster who was doubling down on the purchase of Blackberry stocks while missing drops in real estate cycles waiting for a 40% crash in the market and ultimately buying at a high point in these cycles. Time has continually proved this poster to be wrong. Executives in these companies that want to remain relevant are already considering the changes, challenges and opportunities ahead.

Suncor: Energy Transition Will Destroy Oil Demand

Low-carbon technologies could disrupt global oil demand in the not-too-distant future the way COVID-19 crushed demand during the lockdowns worldwide, Mark Little, chief executive of one of Canada’s largest oil producers, Suncor Energy, wrote in an opinion piece published on Monday.

“The temporary economic lockdown triggered by the 2020 pandemic is giving us a glimpse into a not-too-distant future where the transformation of our energy system could disrupt demand on a similar scale. Disruption breeds opportunity and forward-looking companies and countries will need to step up and lead,” Little and Laura Kilcrease, CEO of Alberta Innovates, wrote in an article in the Corporate Knights magazine.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/suncor-energy ... 00057.html

Demand for oil continues to grow. As long as the 3rd world continues to develop, the demand will grow. Simple. Nothing to debate. Tree-huggers have been calling the end of oil for 40 years but demand continues to grow. As I always say, supply will run out before demand and we will take a massive step back.

[Alien Head Dude]

Demand for oil continues to grow. As long as the 3rd world continues to develop, the demand will grow.

Well, it seems oil company executives and oil and petroleum workers seem to disagree, but hey - you could be right.
You're batting average with economic predictions hasn't been that great to date, but hey - you could be right.

[ckil]

More great news for Alberta!

U.S. shale's just-in-time deliveries made it the Amazon of the oil industry. But now its Prime Days are over
The myth of supposed U.S. oil shale abundance will in reality end in oil scarcity

https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... s-are-over

[ckil]

Demand for oil continues to grow. As long as the 3rd world continues to develop, the demand will grow.

Well, it seems oil company executives and oil and petroleum workers seem to disagree, but hey - you could be right.
You're batting average with economic predictions hasn't been that great to date, but hey - you could be right.

How do they disagree?

My understanding of the economy is evident and my thesis has done well since I have been on Castanet. My portfolio has outperformed all of my benchmarks, even RE.

[Alien Head Dude]

My understanding of the economy is evident and my thesis has done well since I have been on Castanet. My portfolio has outperformed all of my benchmarks, even RE.

[ckil]

More great news for Alberta! Huge investment in the province. Too bad the taxpayer will be stuck with 2/3rds of the bill. As a shareholder in Suncor, I would like to thank-you for your tax dollars. If it was not for these stupid carbon laws, this money could go to social programs. Good old Liberal policy at its finest. The funny thing is that it will create legacy assets on the company balance sheet and do nothing to stop the earth from warming. Carbon is the necessity of all life.

Canada’s Oil Sands Need $60 Billion To Achieve Net-Zero Emissions

This for you fluffy:

"Meanwhile, despite the pandemic-related slump in global oil demand last year and curtailments in output last spring and summer, Canada managed to raise its market share of total world oil production. The share of Alberta’s crude oil production rose to 3.3 percent of global demand in 2020 from 3.1 percent in 2019, according to data from the Alberta Department of Finance cited by Natural Gas Intelligence.

“Canadian oil sands production recovered rapidly to exceed pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020 and the outlook for longer-term growth remains substantial,” Kevin Birn, vice president and head of Canadian oil market, IHS Markit, said last month. IHS Markit expects Canada’s oil sands production to rise to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, up by 650,000 bpd compared to 2021 levels. The forecast is lower than the previous IHS Markit projection which expected production to reach 3.8 million bpd in 2030."
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... sions.html

Demand continues to grow. Just wait for the Conservatives to get in and then you will see the high wages return.

[The Green Barbarian]

More great news for Alberta! Huge investment in the province. Too bad the taxpayer will be stuck with 2/3rds of the bill. As a shareholder in Suncor, I would like to thank-you for your tax dollars. If it was not for these stupid carbon laws, this money could go to social programs. Good old Liberal policy at its finest. The funny thing is that it will create legacy assets on the company balance sheet and do nothing to stop the earth from warming. Carbon is the necessity of all life.

Canada’s Oil Sands Need $60 Billion To Achieve Net-Zero Emissions

This for you fluffy:

"Meanwhile, despite the pandemic-related slump in global oil demand last year and curtailments in output last spring and summer, Canada managed to raise its market share of total world oil production. The share of Alberta’s crude oil production rose to 3.3 percent of global demand in 2020 from 3.1 percent in 2019, according to data from the Alberta Department of Finance cited by Natural Gas Intelligence.

“Canadian oil sands production recovered rapidly to exceed pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020 and the outlook for longer-term growth remains substantial,” Kevin Birn, vice president and head of Canadian oil market, IHS Markit, said last month. IHS Markit expects Canada’s oil sands production to rise to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, up by 650,000 bpd compared to 2021 levels. The forecast is lower than the previous IHS Markit projection which expected production to reach 3.8 million bpd in 2030."
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... sions.html

Demand continues to grow. Just wait for the Conservatives to get in and then you will see the high wages return.

^^^^^^
LIKE

[fluffy]

It is safe to say hiring will increase somewhat over the short term as some workers are called back but there is little reason to believe that will continue or grow over the long term. This is what people who have actually worked in the sector are realizing.

Just about any economic forecast you read projects a rosy future for the oilsands in terms of production, how ever job forecasts do not share that optimism. Since the 2014/15 price crash producers have concentrated their efforts on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, with hopes that increased output volume at a cheaper cost/bbl will offset the lower profit margin. This has brought about significant advances in technology, along with considerable downward pressure on labour costs either through overall reduction of the workforce, or replacing union labour with lower cost non-union alternatives.

Production growth has been impressive in 2021, but largely only in comparison to the significant drop it saw in 2020 when the pandemic took hold. Global demand plummeted as global commerce dropped, and employment in the oilsands plummeted as well bot as a response to lower demand and the need to lower worker density at the production sites and camps.

A big difference will be capital expenditures. The lower prices do not make new projects viable, we will likely not see any more start-ups in that area. Without new construction on a large scale the need for workers drops accordingly. New capital spending will be restricting to onsite improvements of existing operations. Labour requirements will follow those expenditures with spikes in employment levels during "shut-downs", when major improvements generally take place.

The COVID pandemic is still playing a big role in the oilsands, especially during shut-downs. As the term implies, oil production halts during a shut-down as plant maintenance and improvements take place. The halt in production generally results in a push to get the work done as quickly as possible to get back to making money again. This means lots of workers. Some of the camps still in use in the oilsands are "old school", with shared washrooms and close living conditions, which creates fertile ground for disease transmission. Outbreaks this spring at CNRL, the old Syncrude site at Mildred Lake, and Suncor's Base Plant operation bear this out, as all have camps of this old configuration that were grandfathered in as requirements for living conditions were upgraded. New camps permit only configurations that give each resident a private washroom. This has led to some difficulty for those operating the older camps in securing adequate labour supply as employees do not feel safe in those locations. Add to that the increased cost of air travel for employees coming from out of province and it becomes clear that the money once associated with working in the oilsands is getting increasingly hard to find.

There are two different perspectives at play here. For investors and employers the next couple of decades could be very rewarding, for employees not so much. Employment levels as related to production will not return to pre-pandemic levels, nor will wages. The idea that a Conservative government can accomplish this is unsupported, as the UCP's track record shows. I guess it depends on what your priorities are as to how you view the situation. When it comes to money in your pocket these days, better to be an owner than an employee.

https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... third-wave

[ckil]

It is safe to say hiring will increase somewhat over the short term as some workers are called back but there is little reason to believe that will continue or grow over the long term. This is what people who have actually worked in the sector are realizing.

Since the 2014/15 price crash producers have concentrated their efforts on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, with hopes that increased output volume at a cheaper cost/bbl will offset the lower profit margin.

https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... third-wave

Bingo! Management doing exactly what they are hired to do. I do not see any issues with that. What are your issues with it? This occurs across all industries. Your point is baseless.

[ckil]

Wages are a direct result of labour supply and demand. So when times are good and there is a proactive government in charge the patch opens up to investment and demand for labour increases. This pushes up wages. But when you have a drama teacher with no background in economics ruling trying to shut down the oil sector companies are FORCED (they do not like to lay-off) to make concessions by cutting the workforce and or lowering wages. Trust me. A new government will bring in new investments to the sector and Alberta will boom.

[fluffy]

Management doing exactly what they are hired to do. I do not see any issues with that. What are your issues with it?

I guess that would depend on whether or not you feel that the welfare of the workforce is part of the whole equation. Is there no responsibility on the part of employers to help their employees get ahead ? There sure used to be.

[ckil]

Management doing exactly what they are hired to do. I do not see any issues with that. What are your issues with it?

I guess that would depend on whether or not you feel that the welfare of the workforce is part of the whole equation. Is there no responsibility on the part of employers to help their employees get ahead ? There sure used to be.

You would prefer a business to fail so all the employees lose their jobs??????