Pessimistic about climate

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Re: Pessimistic about climate

Post by foenix »

Jlabute wrote: Nov 10th, 2021, 9:13 am COVID would never have been an 'existential crisis', with or without a vaccine or treatments. Climate is not an existential crisis either. Over the last 100 years, fewer and fewer people are dying from weather related events. No evidence exists it will ever be an existential crisis. This is more a political priority than public priority. This is why the Biden admin is failing. Too stupid too fast, destroying the economy, creating division, buying oil from Saudi instead of America which is worse.


PP_2021.01.28_policy-priorities_00-01.png

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... -for-2021/



Climate related deaths approaching zero.

climate-related-deaths.png

That's the thing about public or political priorities, they change like the wind from year to year. It's more than reasonable to expect in a world wide Pandemic which caused millions to lose their jobs that during the recovery, that the expectation of the public would reflect the situation we are in and policies moving forward like, dealing with Covid and the job losses. For example, last year's public priorities were different in that climate and environmental issues were just as important to the public as the economy.
PP_2020.02.13_political-priorities_0-01.png
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... cy-agenda/

What's framed as an "existential crisis" is all in the eye of the beholder, those opinions vary from person to person so that's why it's usually accompanied by a.......imo. :biggrin:

......and I'm sure I've had this discussion with Glacier with the cherry picking graph about climate related deaths and plagues from the past. The answer to that was the metrics used and all the modern techniques and science that made those past climate related deaths moot in the present time.......it's the same ole same ole points......like here......

https://fee.org/articles/climate-relate ... data-show/

For me and others, the signs point to an existential crisis.........it's like staring at a grapefruit size tumor on your neck to know that something is not right about your body. I guess some people will look at that say....... what lump? I don't see anything.
The extraordinarily hot and cold temperatures that are becoming more common as climate change accelerates are responsible for 5 million deaths globally every year.

Extreme weather accounted for 9.4% of all deaths globally between 2000 and 2019, according to researchers who on Wednesday published the first study linking changes in temperatures to annual increases in mortality. While most deaths have been caused by exposure to the cold, the trend is likely to reverse as the planet warms, they said. 

“In the long-term, climate change is expected to increase the mortality burden” as heat-related deaths rise, said Yuming Guo, one of the report’s authors and a professor at Monash University. Hundreds of people have already died from heatwaves sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. 

The last two decades were the hottest since the pre-industrial era with the 10 warmest years on record occurring during the period. Global warming continues to accelerate, with the planet on track to warming around 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, according to estimates by nonprofit Climate Action Tracker. Scientists forecast that a warming of more than 2°C would be catastrophic for life on Earth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tudy-shows
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Failed predictions complilation...


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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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foenix wrote: Nov 11th, 2021, 7:57 am That's the thing about public or political priorities, they change like the wind from year to year. It's more than reasonable to expect in a world wide Pandemic which caused millions to lose their jobs that during the recovery, that the expectation of the public would reflect the situation we are in and policies moving forward like, dealing with Covid and the job losses. For example, last year's public priorities were different in that climate and environmental issues were just as important to the public as the economy.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... cy-agenda/

What's framed as an "existential crisis" is all in the eye of the beholder, those opinions vary from person to person so that's why it's usually accompanied by a.......imo. :biggrin:

......and I'm sure I've had this discussion with Glacier with the cherry picking graph about climate related deaths and plagues from the past. The answer to that was the metrics used and all the modern techniques and science that made those past climate related deaths moot in the present time.......it's the same ole same ole points......like here......

https://fee.org/articles/climate-relate ... data-show/
The extraordinarily hot and cold temperatures that are becoming more common as climate change accelerates are responsible for 5 million deaths globally every year.

Extreme weather accounted for 9.4% of all deaths globally between 2000 and 2019, according to researchers who on Wednesday published the first study linking changes in temperatures to annual increases in mortality. While most deaths have been caused by exposure to the cold, the trend is likely to reverse as the planet warms, they said. 

“In the long-term, climate change is expected to increase the mortality burden” as heat-related deaths rise, said Yuming Guo, one of the report’s authors and a professor at Monash University. Hundreds of people have already died from heatwaves sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. 

The last two decades were the hottest since the pre-industrial era with the 10 warmest years on record occurring during the period. Global warming continues to accelerate, with the planet on track to warming around 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, according to estimates by nonprofit Climate Action Tracker. Scientists forecast that a warming of more than 2°C would be catastrophic for life on Earth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tudy-shows
Interesting that the priority chart in my post is ONE year NEWER than the priority chart in your post. I'll take the newer chart.
foenix wrote: Nov 11th, 2021, 7:57 am For me and others, the signs point to an existential crisis.........it's like staring at a grapefruit size tumor on your neck to know that something is not right about your body. I guess some people will look at that say....... what lump? I don't see anything.
So, for you and Extinction Rebellion? A "CRISIS" is typically a current turn for the worse, not in the future being predicted by bad models. The grapefruit sized lump doesn't exist yet but the doctor is telling me he thinks I will have one in 50 years, determined only by measuring my weight. He is likely wrong as he has been in the past, and he is asking me to take a $500 daily pill which has side-effects worse than a possible grapefruit, or grape, or raisin, or nothing. 'Crisis' is an absolute happening. If the human population begins decreasing instead of increasing because of weather, then you know there is a crisis.

Many historic periods had higher temperatures than today. During these periods life exploded. Life prefers warmth to cold. Measured global warming is not accelerating. Temperature has been flat for the last 6 years. OF course to have a 2 or 3 degree rise before 2100, you have to say temperature rate of rise is accelerating given 78 years left in order to hit 3 degrees, even when rate of rise isn't measured to be that yet. To say so, means you have faith in a system that knows little about climate which is reflected as much in models which can't tell the future or present. All predicated on CO2 and we don't even know what CO2 does, we only have a poor correlation.

Typical weather and natural events cause deaths. Cold kills more than heat. If you're going to take away or ration peoples energy then even more people will die. Climate change is the average rise in temperature of 1/10th a degree every 10 years. It does not mean the whole earth rises in temperature homogenously. You really think climate kills people if people adapt and seasons change? I don't, it is not credible. People are adapted to living in their areas using energy, insulation, heating, what-ever. Climate migration doesn't make sense.

Is COVID an existential crisis? What is pointing to this crisis of existence? Human population is still growing. Tell me when the human race will be extinct - why and how because of COVID. Maybe existential crisis just refers to a leftists point of view?
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Jlabute wrote: Nov 11th, 2021, 3:46 pm
Interesting that the priority chart in my post is ONE year NEWER than the priority chart in your post. I'll take the newer chart.
foenix wrote: Nov 11th, 2021, 7:57 am For me and others, the signs point to an existential crisis.........it's like staring at a grapefruit size tumor on your neck to know that something is not right about your body. I guess some people will look at that say....... what lump? I don't see anything.
So, for you and Extinction Rebellion? A "CRISIS" is typically a current turn for the worse, not in the future being predicted by bad models. The grapefruit sized lump doesn't exist yet but the doctor is telling me he thinks I will have one in 50 years, determined only by measuring my weight. He is likely wrong as he has been in the past, and he is asking me to take a $500 daily pill which has side-effects worse than a possible grapefruit, or grape, or raisin, or nothing. 'Crisis' is an absolute happening. If the human population begins decreasing instead of increasing because of weather, then you know there is a crisis.

Many historic periods had higher temperatures than today. During these periods life exploded. Life prefers warmth to cold. Measured global warming is not accelerating. Temperature has been flat for the last 6 years. OF course to have a 2 or 3 degree rise before 2100, you have to say temperature rate of rise is accelerating given 78 years left in order to hit 3 degrees, even when rate of rise isn't measured to be that yet. To say so, means you have faith in a system that knows little about climate which is reflected as much in models which can't tell the future or present. All predicated on CO2 and we don't even know what CO2 does, we only have a poor correlation.

Typical weather and natural events cause deaths. Cold kills more than heat. If you're going to take away or ration peoples energy then even more people will die. Climate change is the average rise in temperature of 1/10th a degree every 10 years. It does not mean the whole earth rises in temperature homogenously. You really think climate kills people if people adapt and seasons change? I don't, it is not credible. People are adapted to living in their areas using energy, insulation, heating, what-ever. Climate migration doesn't make sense.

Is COVID an existential crisis? What is pointing to this crisis of existence? Human population is still growing. Tell me when the human race will be extinct - why and how because of COVID. Maybe existential crisis just refers to a leftists point of view?
Of course, during a worldwide Pandemic which took out millions of jobs along with millions of lives, the priorities would reflect that.....did I not say that already? Once we get out of this crisis, I'm sure most of the world will try and put our efforts into trying to figure out the environmental crisis that's surely coming down the road.

Most historic periods that we have some reliable records for changed 5 to 7 degrees in thousands of years but since the Industrial Revolution the temperature climb has gone up 10X faster? Now why is that? What environmental factor has changed in the last 800,000 years to have the global temperature shoot up ten times faster than in the past.....please explain?

As for this....what do you mean? Have you not been around?
Temperature has been flat for the last 6 years.
Could have fooled me...........

2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows
Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally averaged temperature was 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees Celsius) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 2020 edged out 2016 by a very small amount, within the margin of error of the analysis, making the years effectively tied for the warmest year on record.

“The last seven years have been the warmest seven years on record, typifying the ongoing and dramatic warming trend,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Whether one year is a record or not is not really that important – the important things are long-term trends. With these trends, and as the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken.”
temp-2020_comparison-plot.jpg.jpeg
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020 ... ysis-shows

Try this interactive graph..........

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015 ... the-world/
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Sabrina Maddeaux: Climate change programs are rife with corruption — the clowns are running the circus

As the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) nears an end, it may be more important to talk about what wasn’t discussed at the summit than what was. Predictably, trendy culprits of the day like oil, private jets and cars were the subject of highly-publicized speeches and promises, with buzzy terms like “sustainability” and “net-zero” tossed about like confetti on a new bride.

With Western leaders’ approval ratings slumping to record lows, they’re eager to change the political conversation. The lingering pandemic, inflation, and general government incompetence are downers –– but a brighter, cleaner, greener future is something they’re happy to get behind. And so, suddenly, every prime minister and president is the Oprah of climate promises: “You get a net-zero pledge! You get a net-zero pledge! Everybody gets a net-zero pledge!”

The problem is you can’t meaningfully tackle climate change without confronting some very ugly realities, namely, corruption. It’s a word conspicuously missing from COP26, despite climate corruption being one of the biggest hurdles to real progress on everything from deforestation to carbon emissions.

You can throw all the money in the world at green initiatives, but if that money goes missing into the coffers of kleptocrats and their friends, we’ve actually made the problem worse. If green programs lack basic standards of transparency and accountability, and are thus easily corrupted, then they’re little more than PR campaigns that present a dangerously misleading veneer of progress.

SNIP

In Bangladesh, an estimated 35 per cent of climate project funds are embezzled. In Slovakia, the government sold carbon credits at half price to a shell company connected to one of its coalition parties. In Indonesia, political leaders have a long history of benefiting from generous subsidies provided to the forestry sector, bribery in the natural resources sector, and poor monitoring of well-connected companies’ environmental obligations. Nigeria’s national oil company couldn’t account for almost $20 billion in revenue in 2012 and 2013 alone as its rivers fill with black sludge and its people suffer from respiratory illnesses.

SNIP

Ignoring the role corruption plays in climate change doesn’t just undermine our global efforts, it actively works against them. In too many cases, taxpayer dollars are funnelled to kleptocrats at the expense of the very environment and vulnerable communities they’re meant to protect.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/sa ... d=msedgntp
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Well all I can say is that the youngsters today need to pray that this is a short-cycle natural trend.

If left up to us village idiots, we'll just make it worse by trying to fix it.

As for these COP fests (aka let's blow the expense accounts), total waste of time. The worlds 3 biggest economies either don't show up or just pay it lip service.
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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bidwell2 wrote: Nov 13th, 2021, 8:25 pm Well all I can say is that the youngsters today need to pray that this is a short-cycle natural trend.
Not sure what you mean - what is "this"? Why is "this" (what we are experiencing for climate right now) any different than any other period in history?
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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foenix wrote: Nov 12th, 2021, 9:36 am
Could have fooled me...........

2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows
Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally averaged temperature was 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees Celsius) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 2020 edged out 2016 by a very small amount, within the margin of error of the analysis, making the years effectively tied for the warmest year on record.

“The last seven years have been the warmest seven years on record, typifying the ongoing and dramatic warming trend,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Whether one year is a record or not is not really that important – the important things are long-term trends. With these trends, and as the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken.”
temp-2020_comparison-plot.jpg.jpeg

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020 ... ysis-shows

Try this interactive graph..........

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015 ... the-world/

Yes, but NASA is full of scientists with years of education, decades of experience, and Ph.Ds and stuff.

If you want the real scoop on climate, you have to watch some goofs on youtube.
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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foenix wrote: Nov 12th, 2021, 9:36 am
Could have fooled me...........

2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows
Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally averaged temperature was 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees Celsius) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 2020 edged out 2016 by a very small amount, within the margin of error of the analysis, making the years effectively tied for the warmest year on record.

“The last seven years have been the warmest seven years on record, typifying the ongoing and dramatic warming trend,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Whether one year is a record or not is not really that important – the important things are long-term trends. With these trends, and as the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken.”
temp-2020_comparison-plot.jpg.jpeg

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020 ... ysis-shows

Try this interactive graph..........

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015 ... the-world/
Nice Cherrypicking!

There are 5 scientifically valid global thermometers, and 4 of them say that 2016 was warmer, but you pick the one thermometer that has 2020 tied. You need to go back to science class.
globaltemps.png
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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crookedmember wrote: Nov 14th, 2021, 10:28 am

Yes, but NASA is full of scientists with years of education, decades of experience, and Ph.Ds and stuff.

Yeah, and they're supposed to be studying how to advance humans in to space. That was why NASA was founded. NASA was never to be co-opted like this to "study" apocalyptic fairy tales. Every day they waste on this stupid man-made climate change hoax is another day that mankind doesn't advance as a species, but just stays in this stasis, not advancing, just sitting here, wringing our hands about something that doesn't even exist.
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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foenix wrote: Nov 12th, 2021, 9:36 am
Of course, during a worldwide Pandemic which took out millions of jobs along with millions of lives, the priorities would reflect that.....did I not say that already? Once we get out of this crisis, I'm sure most of the world will try and put our efforts into trying to figure out the environmental crisis that's surely coming down the road.

Most historic periods that we have some reliable records for changed 5 to 7 degrees in thousands of years but since the Industrial Revolution the temperature climb has gone up 10X faster? Now why is that? What environmental factor has changed in the last 800,000 years to have the global temperature shoot up ten times faster than in the past.....please explain?

As for this....what do you mean? Have you not been around?
Temperature has been flat for the last 6 years.
Could have fooled me...

2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows
Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally averaged temperature was 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees Celsius) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 2020 edged out 2016 by a very small amount, within the margin of error of the analysis, making the years effectively tied for the warmest year on record.

“The last seven years have been the warmest seven years on record, typifying the ongoing and dramatic warming trend,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Whether one year is a record or not is not really that important – the important things are long-term trends. With these trends, and as the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken.”
There will be no figuring out any crisis if our economy fails. Global temperature has risen dramatically in the past, but it is not as though we have plenty of accurate data.

Here are two temperature charts using UAH6 and HADCRUT4 data sets. Both show the last 7 years were flat and slightly decreasing. You'd probably be able to see this in GISS if the X-axis were not so compressed and the Y-axis not so expanded. Even if the last 7 years are tied for warmest year, that means temperature is not rising.

image-8.png
image-9.png

Not to mention, Greenland where people like to say ice melt is accelerating, this isn't the case, unless one considers negative acceleration. Over the last decade, the rate of melt has slowed dramatically rather than accelerated. Greenland has had much less ice during times of Vikings. The Earth has spent most of it's existence without ice caps too. This is not an unusual thing and peoples migrate due to ice gain and loss. Could very well mean sea level rise is not accelerating either.
Greenland-total-ice-1.png
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Jlabute wrote: Nov 15th, 2021, 6:08 pm

There will be no figuring out any crisis if our economy fails. Global temperature has risen dramatically in the past, but it is not as though we have plenty of accurate data.

Here are two temperature charts using UAH6 and HADCRUT4 data sets. Both show the last 7 years were flat and slightly decreasing. You'd probably be able to see this in GISS if the X-axis were not so compressed and the Y-axis not so expanded. Even if the last 7 years are tied for warmest year, that means temperature is not rising.


image-8.png


image-9.png
i guess it all depends on the cherry picked data......
The myth of no warming since 1998 was based on the satellite record estimates of the temperature of the atmosphere. However, as discussed in the video below by Peter Sinclair, even that argument is no longer accurate. The satellites show warming since 1998 too.

There's also a tendency for some people just to concentrate on atmospheric or surface air temperatures when there are other, more useful, indicators that can give us a better idea how rapidly the world is warming. More than 90% of global warming heat goes into warming the oceans, while less than 3% goes into increasing the atmospheric and surface air temperature. Records show that the Earth has been warming at a steady rate before and since 1998 and there is no sign of it slowing any time soon (Figure 1).
fig 1.jpg
Even if we focus exclusively on global surface temperatures, Cowtan & Way (2013) shows that when we account for temperatures across the entire globe (including the Arctic, which is the part of the planet warming fastest), the global surface warming trend for 1997–2015 is approximately 0.14°C per decade.
https://skepticalscience.com/global-war ... n-1998.htm
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Jlabute wrote: Nov 15th, 2021, 6:08 pm
Not to mention, Greenland where people like to say ice melt is accelerating, this isn't the case, unless one considers negative acceleration. Over the last decade, the rate of melt has slowed dramatically rather than accelerated. Greenland has had much less ice during times of Vikings. The Earth has spent most of it's existence without ice caps too. This is not an unusual thing and peoples migrate due to ice gain and loss. Could very well mean sea level rise is not accelerating either.

Greenland-total-ice-1.png
Again, more cherry picking, looking at only the small subset of data to fit one's narrative.....but we all know Greenland is hemorrhaging ice mass.

Warming Greenland ice sheet passes point of no return
Even if the climate cools, study finds, glaciers will continue to shrink

Nearly 40 years of satellite data from Greenland shows that glaciers on the island have shrunk so much that even if global warming were to stop today, the ice sheet would continue shrinking.

The finding, published today, Aug. 13, in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment, means that Greenland's glaciers have passed a tipping point of sorts, where the snowfall that replenishes the ice sheet each year cannot keep up with the ice that is flowing into the ocean from glaciers............

The researchers found that, throughout the 1980s and 90s, snow gained through accumulation and ice melted or calved from glaciers were mostly in balance, keeping the ice sheet intact. Through those decades, the researchers found, the ice sheets generally lost about 450 gigatons (about 450 billion tons) of ice each year from flowing outlet glaciers, which was replaced with snowfall.

"We are measuring the pulse of the ice sheet -- how much ice glaciers drain at the edges of the ice sheet -- which increases in the summer. And what we see is that it was relatively steady until a big increase in ice discharging to the ocean during a short five- to six-year period," King said.

The researchers' analysis found that the baseline of that pulse -- the amount of ice being lost each year -- started increasing steadily around 2000, so that the glaciers were losing about 500 gigatons each year. Snowfall did not increase at the same time, and over the last decade, the rate of ice loss from glaciers has stayed about the same -- meaning the ice sheet has been losing ice more rapidly than it's being replenished.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 123550.htm
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Re: Pessimistic about climate

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Glacier wrote: Nov 14th, 2021, 3:35 pm
Nice Cherrypicking!

There are 5 scientifically valid global thermometers, and 4 of them say that 2016 was warmer, but you pick the one thermometer that has 2020 tied. You need to go back to science class.

globaltemps.png
From one cherry picker to another, hey? [icon_lol2.gif]

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