Climate Change Mega Thread

Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Omnitheo » Jan 14th, 2019, 7:21 pm

Glacier wrote:Excellent video that debunks potholer's junk science.



It is a good video, however it makes a number of false assumptions. Just like yourself, you say “potholer’s junk science” except no part of it is Potholer’s. He is simply presenting the information. He cites the sources for everything he is explaining. The video treats this as though it is potholer’s hypothesis, however that is incorrect. He is presenting other scientist’s findings. Interestingly the video also focuses on only the start of the data about CO2 lagging temperature. Specifically at the start of the cycles, however it stops short of discussing how the studies show it reverses towards the tail of the cycle, as the data shows and the theory posits.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Drip_Torch » Jan 16th, 2019, 9:46 pm

So I'm keeping an eye on the records being broken in parts of Australia… overnight lows around 33 and day time highs approaching 50, shattering records going back to 1903. Pfft… these new records just don't last like the old ones did, but still, sort of leads to some sporty fire weather indices - and then, I come across this story.

Electric bike explodes: https://www.9news.com.au/2019/01/14/22/ ... s-bushfire

http___prod.static9.net.au___media_2019_01_14_22_32_BIKE-adelaide.jpg



Best of intentions, but could have been a catastrophe in terms of carbon footprint for the day. The video gave me a bit of chuckle - 10 foot flames shooting out of the seat stem. Ouch.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Omnitheo » Jan 19th, 2019, 9:03 am

Omnitheo wrote:
Glacier wrote:Excellent video that debunks potholer's junk science.



It is a good video, however it makes a number of false assumptions. Just like yourself, you say “potholer’s junk science” except no part of it is Potholer’s. He is simply presenting the information. He cites the sources for everything he is explaining. The video treats this as though it is potholer’s hypothesis, however that is incorrect. He is presenting other scientist’s findings. Interestingly the video also focuses on only the start of the data about CO2 lagging temperature. Specifically at the start of the cycles, however it stops short of discussing how the studies show it reverses towards the tail of the cycle, as the data shows and the theory posits.


Ah, and here we go.
Am excellent video setting straight Tony Heller’s cherry picking and lies.

This one’s for you Glacier
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Glacier » Jan 19th, 2019, 9:31 pm

It was an okay rebuttal, but the story isn't over yet (nor is this the final chapter I suspect).

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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Omnitheo » Jan 21st, 2019, 2:00 pm

Read the comments to that video.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Glacier » Jan 21st, 2019, 2:34 pm

Okay, I did. Here is one:

Something I posted on Reddit today in defense of Tony Heller: So, I watched the new Potholer54 video today (here) where he responds to Tony Weller and in spite of the mountains of overwhelming meaningless, provocative and insulting prattle from CAGW-trolls who are now posting on Tony’s video, saying that he “got wrecked” and was completely “obliterated”, I still think Tony’s video and arguments hold water.

Potholer54 cites various sources and claims that these sources represent the overwhelming science. But do they? And how may we tell? One of the things that Tony said in his “Debunking the Debunker” video is that the effects from the Milankovitch cycle may have been larger than suggested in Potholer54’s video, where he cites a paper saying the assumed globally-averaged radiative forcing from the Milankovitch cycle is about 0.7 W/m2.

From my research, the change in radiative forcing from the Milankovitch cycle (due to precession and obliquity cycles) can be quite dramatic. For instance, some estimates put the amplitudes in radiative forcing from the Milankovitch cycle at 15 W/m2 during obliquity cycles (Cyclostratigraphy and Astrochronology). So, I feel Tony is valid in his questioning of the potential magnitude of the Milankovitch cycle in regards to inferring climate sensitivity from paleo-climate data.

In his video, Potholer54 argues that Tony wildly misinterpreted climate sensitivity by assuming that the temperature-changes in the Vostok ice-core represented global average temperature-changes. This is a fair enough point, but according to the IPCC: “The global mean temperature changed by 4°C to 7°C between ice ages and warm interglacial periods” which is fairly close to the temperature-change in the Vostok ice-core data.

Let’s take the average of 5.5°C. Doing this (and assuming a CO2 change of 100ppmv between glacial-interglacial periods) we get a very high sensitivity between CO2 and temperature of 0.055°C per 1ppmv. On the other hand, using the IPCC’s own equations (as explained below) we get a much lower sensitivity between CO2 and temperature of 0.019°C per 1ppmv. So, Tony’s argument that the paleo-climate data implies a very high sensitivity is still valid. The point is, the IPCC’s equations cannot account for the assumed temperature-changes between glacial and interglacial periods if we assume that the total forcing from the Milankovitch cycle is about 0.7 W/m2, which only corresponds to a small warming of 0.14°C, which is probably why Tony was suggesting that the effects from the Milankovitch cycle may have been underestimated.

The IPCC uses two formulae to calculate global warming from CO2 concentrations. The first calculates the amount of ‘radiative forcing’ that a given increase of atmospheric CO2 should produce. The second formula then converts the result of the first formula into a specific amount of global warming by multiplying it by the constant 0.8 (to give the answer in °C). This is supposed to incorporate the effects of hypothesized ‘feedbacks’ inherent in the climate system that serve to amplify the amount of global warming that would otherwise be produced purely and simply by the ‘radiative forcing’ of the CO2 itself.

According to the IPCC’s radiative forcing Arrhenius equation, a CO2 increase of 180ppmv (during glacial periods) to 280ppmv (during interglacial periods) comes out at about 2.36 W/m2 and multiplying this by 0.8 (the assumed feedback constant) gives a total, feedback-inclusive temperature-change of 1.9°C (corresponding to about 10 W/m2) giving a sensitivity of about 1ppmv per 0.019°C. So, assuming the IPCC’s equations are correct, CO2 and the positive feedbacks can only explain 35% of the change in global average temperature of 5.5°C between glacial and interglacial periods, which again suggests that the forcing from the Milankovitch cycle may have been underestimated. One of my biggest issues with the suggestion that the Milankovitch cycle only produces a very small amount of radiative forcing is that during interglacial periods, according to the IPCC’s equations, the total radiative forcing from greenhouse gases amounts to about 10 W/m2 (as explained above) and a small amount of radiative forcing of 0.7 W/m2 from the Milankovitch cycle would not be able to overcome the assumed forcing from greenhouse gases in order to initiate glacial periods. So, I cannot see the logic of the argument that Milankovitch cycles are weak, which seem to be contradicted by quite elementary physical principles.

Potholer54 goes on to argue that the radiative forcing effects from methane are not insignificant, as argued by Tony. Potholer54 cites a paper called “A Significant Revision of Methane Radiative Forcing”. Under “Methods” the paper describes its methodology in determining the radiative forcing characteristics which is based on radiative transfer OLBL-codes derived from GENLN2. Does anyone here know what a ‘radiative transfer code’ is? It is a computer-program. So, the ultimate authority for belief in the radiative forcing characteristics of methane is a computer-program, not knowledge of physics and not observations of the real world. That is not the way real science is done. It is to replace real science with the inscrutable output of a computer instead. And whoever controls the computer’s output controls the ‘science’ that is based upon it. This is how the CAGW-fraud appears to have been perpetrated at all levels.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby The Green Barbarian » Jan 21st, 2019, 3:13 pm

CAGW trolls. Love it.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Omnitheo » Jan 21st, 2019, 5:12 pm

If someone is making incorrect claims or spreading lies, then pointing out the truth is not trolling, it is educating.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby spooker » Jan 25th, 2019, 11:10 am

At what point do we wake up and realise that what we've been arguing about has caught up to us?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/25/worrying-rise-in-global-co2-forecast-for-2019
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Glacier » Jan 25th, 2019, 11:40 am

It's not all doom and gloom...

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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Omnitheo » Jan 25th, 2019, 12:06 pm

Your idol Bjorn is one of the worst offenders when it comes to cherry picking data.

From the report itself:

When interpreting disaster data, one must be aware of the complex interactions between natural hazards and human vulnerabilities: the most violent storm over an uninhabited region will not be a disaster if no people are harmed, while even a small tsunami hitting a populous city with no early warning system can quickly become a major disaster. Continued variability in reporting and recording must also be taken into account, particularly when looking for trends and patterns within the numbers.


The report mentions how improvements have been made which mitigate deaths caused from these events, but also mentions how much these climate related events have been increasing.

https://www.cred.be/downloadFile.php?fi ... _10oct.pdf

You need to see what the scientists and researchers are saying.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Glacier » Jan 25th, 2019, 12:32 pm

It's still not doom and gloom. The world continues to get better and better according to Bjorn Lomborg and Steven Pinker. Even if climate disturbances are increasing, human invention is more than mitigating the effects.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby spooker » Jan 25th, 2019, 1:49 pm

Glacier wrote:It's still not doom and gloom. The world continues to get better and better according to Bjorn Lomborg and Steven Pinker. Even if climate disturbances are increasing, human invention is more than mitigating the effects.


Be careful what you wish for ... we keep learning after the fact that what we thought was "going to be wonderful" really isn't and just makes us fat and lazy ...
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Jlabute » Jan 26th, 2019, 7:50 am

Omnitheo wrote:Your idol Bjorn is one of the worst offenders when it comes to cherry picking data.

From the report itself:

When interpreting disaster data, one must be aware of the complex interactions between natural hazards and human vulnerabilities: the most violent storm over an uninhabited region will not be a disaster if no people are harmed, while even a small tsunami hitting a populous city with no early warning system can quickly become a major disaster. Continued variability in reporting and recording must also be taken into account, particularly when looking for trends and patterns within the numbers.


The report mentions how improvements have been made which mitigate deaths caused from these events, but also mentions how much these climate related events have been increasing.

https://www.cred.be/downloadFile.php?fi ... _10oct.pdf

You need to see what the scientists and researchers are saying.


4.4 billion people injured. More than half the world is crippled, without even knowing it. Half of everyone you know. For all you know it could be one leftist person injured 4.4B times. This document goes to say if we don’t makes changes by 2020 all hope is lost so we better fix all this stuff in less than a year or blindly put a monetary collection system in place while we panick. There are ‘factors’ driving up the ‘likelyhood’!! OMG that means they are guessing. What an absolutely ridiculous piece of scare mongering, I hope they don’t base it on the microscopic unproven effects of CO2. I see they do blame it mostly on climate change and the CO2 in their heads. What a disappointment.

Figure 2 graph shows geophysical and climate disasters as decreasing. The area under the graph is getting smaller. Graph 8 sorts disasters by income bracket. Hmmm, sounds like an economic redistribution plan to me. The conclusion is about eliminating poverty citing Vanuatu as most vulnerable, which only the UN can help with your money and data collected from banks and insurance companies.

Send your $20 to 2020 Springfield road and we’ll make sure the remaining 3.3B are safe, while helping the 4.4B.

Of course CO2 does not cause tsunamis and earthquakes, but scientists attribute geophysical and climate activity to solar cycles. CO2 is very limited in its tiny effect. Sorry, don’t need the UN-elected and their brand of hyper-risk assessment. Human suffering and economic loss will occur and increase as population and infrastructure increase and disasters remain constant or even decrease. What scientists wrote that paper? Pascaline is a nature conservation nut.
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Re: Climate Change Mega Thread

Postby Jlabute » Jan 27th, 2019, 10:04 am

*removed*
Last edited by ferri on Jan 27th, 2019, 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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