Chang: China Is Preparing To Go To War

[Drip_Torch]

It caught my interest when I saw the back-course through the Jetstream and it showed it going over BC.

I went and replayed the tape and found both our CC-150T's (our primary tankers) came out from Ontario and were ferrying fuel from Edmonton. They didn't have ADS-B transponders pinging on any F-18's, (that I could find) but someone else apparently saw them hit the air around the same time. A CP-140 Aurora was also in play from Comox.

Like I said, I see evidence that Canada was far more involved than they care to admit.

One last time for anyone that missed it, here's the shot the first F-22 (callsign SNIPER) pulled off today.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1621980596346953729

[nucksRnum1]

Meh.....what does BC have to spy on? A bunch of clear cuts and beetle pine kill forests that burned down?

[GordonH]

Unmanned balloon is subject to whatever route the jet stream is taking, which is pretty unpredictable.

[Fancy]

Interesting that China Joe waited at least two days to do what should have been done when it was first discovered in US air space.

Any comment on having it shot down and possibly having debris hitting something important?

[Drip_Torch]

Unmanned balloon is subject to whatever route the jet stream is taking, which is pretty unpredictable.

It's actually far more predictable these days than you might realize. I called it yesterday with the words "right between Wilmington and Charleston". Precisely right between those two places is Myrtle Beach, where they shot it down today. I don't see anything to suggest what others have been saying about it maneuvering around in any Norad airspace. It seemed to follow the modeled 250 mb Jetstream without much variance, if any. I can look at those models 5 days out with relative certainty at that pressure and elevation.

[nucksRnum1]

Unmanned balloon is subject to whatever route the jet stream is taking, which is pretty unpredictable.

I saw solar panels. Which means it was possible to maneuver with a motor of some kind.

[FreeRights]

Unmanned balloon is subject to whatever route the jet stream is taking, which is pretty unpredictable.

I saw solar panels. Which means it was possible to maneuver with a motor of some kind.

Not necessarily, assuming they were in fact solar panels, it could be there to power any technology on board.

In fact, high altitude surveillance balloons might not even have great control abilities, according to this article.
https://www.reuters.com/world/high-alti ... Institute.

[Drip_Torch]

Unmanned balloon is subject to whatever route the jet stream is taking, which is pretty unpredictable.

I saw solar panels. Which means it was possible to maneuver with a motor of some kind.

I have my doubts. The Jetstream it was travelling in this morning was approaching 175 km/h, during part of its journey the other day, it was just above a stream doing 230 km/h. This time of year, with a little math and a good model you could map its journey over the next 6 days. Mid summer, if we keep having summers like we've had for the last 5, it would be virtually impossible to get a balloon from China to here.

[Jlabute]

All sorts of claims to the height of the balloon, from 60,000 feet to 80,000 feet. All above the jetstream, up in the stratosphere and follows meridional overturning patterns… unless it is self propelled which isn’t visually evident.

I suppose lasers aren’t ready for prime time.

[Drip_Torch]

All sorts of claims to the height of the balloon, from 60,000 feet to 80,000 feet. All above the jetstream, up in the stratosphere and follows meridional overturning patterns… unless it is self propelled which isn’t visually evident.

I suppose lasers aren’t ready for prime time.

Yep, apparently.

I suck at maths, so I'm not even going to attempt this one, but very generally speaking "the Jetstream" that most of us know a little about exists between 400 mb and 100 mb. 250 mb being the one most modelled because that's where jets find a happy spot. At about 70 mb (usually somewhere around 60,000 ft) things do slow and somewhere between there and 10 mb it actually starts to get into those overturning patterns. (Sometimes appearing to go in the opposite direction of the "the Jetstream" below it.) The number I heard tossed about the most for the balloon's elevation was 60,000, with the exception of late yesterday afternoon when there was a NOTAM issued, pegging it at 43,000.

I thought it seemed to be following the 250 mb models to a T.

FWIW, based on my observations (assuming the Combat Sent I was watching last night was orbiting the balloon,) I have an average of 117 km/h to get to its splashdown point today, in its final 11 hours of being a spectacle.

(Scratch pad math, bunch of assumptions and give or take 150 km on the map, either way)

[Jlabute]

All sorts of claims to the height of the balloon, from 60,000 feet to 80,000 feet. All above the jetstream, up in the stratosphere and follows meridional overturning patterns… unless it is self propelled which isn’t visually evident.

I suppose lasers aren’t ready for prime time.

Yep, apparently.

I suck at maths, so I'm not even going to attempt this one, but very generally speaking "the Jetstream" that most of us know a little about exists between 400 mb and 100 mb. 250 mb being the one most modelled because that's where jets find a happy spot. At about 70 mb (usually somewhere around 60,000 ft) things do slow and somewhere between there and 10 mb it actually starts to get into those overturning patterns. (Sometimes appearing to go in the opposite direction of the "the Jetstream" below it.) The number I heard tossed about the most for the balloon's elevation was 60,000, with the exception of late yesterday afternoon when there was a NOTAM issued, pegging it at 43,000.

I thought it seemed to be following the 250 mb models to a T.

Beats me. You’d also think a laser could give us an accurate altitude too. lol. I don’t think anyone knows the altitude… I did see 18.3km mentioned, and the same article mentioned such balloons normally operate between 24km and 37km. Some sites say it averaged a speed of 25 knots.

[Drip_Torch]

My gut feeling is all the uncertainty could have been avoided. I'm sure "they" know exactly what it was and where it was in terms of altitude.

A complete aside, but in terms how "uncertain" our atmosphere can be, and to give the casual observer an idea of how it is talked about it in very general terms, yesterday the tropopause folded over Mt Washington, New Hampshire. At a mere 5000 ft it was in the stratosphere for a brief period of time.

It looked like this... https://twitter.com/i/status/1621598650022363142 (In case anyone is wondering how to dress for a nuclear winter...)

[my5cents]

Lots of unanswered questions. I'm no expert but if I was going to fly a surveillance balloon over an area I'd color it to blend in with the color of the sky, not make it white.

[TimmyE]

So the American didn't take the balloon down when it was over Alaska. Fine. Where were our politicians when it was flying over Canada? Didn't tell us and didn't do or say anything about it until the beans were spilled south of the boarder. So, it's clear to me that our foreign policy is dictated by the Americans and that we are known as America north.

[Bsuds]

Where were our politicians when it was flying over Canada?

Well considering Canada has nothing that China would even care about then why worry about a balloon?