Predictions for 2020... were they prophetic or a failure?

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Glacier
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Predictions for 2020... were they prophetic or a failure?

Post by Glacier »

In terms of climate predictions, most were an utter failure:

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/t ... g-n1289371

Interestingly enough, this 26 year old book has some fairly accurate predictions:

The worst part about a 7 day lockdown is the first 4 months.
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Queen K
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Re: Predictions for 2020... were they prophetic or a failure

Post by Queen K »

Fascinating. Hamish MCrea is now on my book "want" list.

What an interesting set of predictions from back in 1994. I'll bet there are many such books out there, languishing on dusty bookshelves waiting to be discovered or rediscovered as to what the authors predicted or saw coming in the near future.

Seeing that book is clearly in non-fiction, does fiction count?
Want your bags of leaves gone? Put a "free" sign on them out by the road so people can grab them.
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Queen K
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Re: Predictions for 2020... were they prophetic or a failure

Post by Queen K »

How about news articles predicting what may or may not happened in 2020? Do they count? Because I am curious about those who were behind this article.


In 2017, this was an opinion article co-authored by BY CHARLES DAVIDSON AND JEFF GEDMIN. But unlike Hamish McCrea, they could not keep their biases out of it and bet that Trump's support base would diminish. Well, no, until the riot at the Capitol, which I say was needed, he had over 70 million votes.


https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/ ... ont-either

Speculating what will doom President Donald J. Trump has become a Washington parlor game. British betting companies have been putting odds this summer at better than 50-50 thatTrump will not last his first term. Las Vegas has odds at up to 33 percent that the president will be gone by year's end. But for an early exit to occur, whether it be from resignation or impeachment, the much ballyhooed Trump base would have to lose its faith.

We're wagering that, when the bling and bluster wear thin and when the sugar high from Twitter tirades has worn off, the pitch forks will be out for our celebrity-in-chief. Trump is a genius self-promoter, but he's a terrible businessman. We bet the facts catch up to him.
    So then their biases get the better of them:

    "Support for him among loyalists appears already to be slipping. It may be Russian collusion, race debates or financial crimes that ultimately do him in. Our forecast though is that voters wake up one day and realize that if American banks won't support Donald Trump, neither should they. "

    Only it wasn't slipping. Not with the electorate, not by a long shot. Trump's only thing going was the vast voter turn out for him, the VAST millions of votes in his favour.

    In that, Jeff and Charles, the co-authors of this 2017 article allowed their personal biases to get it very wrong.

    And to add and I know I sound like a broken record on this, how does an entity combat Trump's popularity?

    How to undermine Trump and his vocal, violent supporters? Get real images, real deplorable behaviors beamed into every living room's tv screen and computer screen and iphone screen that can be played over and over and over again. To shock Middle America and make them wake up to what they voted for. Hence the police standing still and allowing Duck Dynasty to stream past and get in.
    Want your bags of leaves gone? Put a "free" sign on them out by the road so people can grab them.

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