Recession Incoming (again) and where we are headed

[rustled]

You called it, domain.

[domain]

September unemployment was lower than the August spike, but higher than the July low.

Higher lows = bottom in unemployment. Still on track for that recession before Christmas 2022.

For fun, lets say the next unemployment print (for October) prints a 5.7%

[domain]

Based on what the politicians like Freeland are saying in the media, trying to get people ready for bad economic news, I'm going to say that the next unemployment figures will come in nationally at between 5.7% to 6.2% from the current 5.2%

My prediction from June still stands - we will have unemployment rates (and subsequent recession) to lift-off before Christmas 2022.


HoHoHo

[Catsumi]

Haha, Domain. When unemployment rates increase, what do you propose we do with all the immigrant labour arriving ?

Merry Christmas to you too.

[domain]

I have no proposals for what other people should do, I can only speak for myself. If the government wants to make a mess and rob, beat and bury the middle class with taxes, bureaucracy, property-right-stripping laws, social engineering, climate-alarmism-robbery, socialism etc. and my fellow Canadian supports this, who am I to stop them from getting what they want and deserve?

The only thing I want is for respect for absolute individual rights, and with that that I don't have to worry about having someone help themselves to the fruits of my labors, nor would I have to worry about someone demanding/forcing me to do as they wish.

But I won't find that in Canada, or any place that I would be willing to go. So my options are to stay and struggle with the hopes of change, while doing the best for me and my better half, or leave this place for somewhere less like it. All of it is risky, and we all have finite timelines of existence, so its not an easy future.

That aside, we have a financial crisis ahead of us, and other manufactured crises to contend with in 2023+ This coming recession and unemployment spike will just be the start, and I am merely amusing myself by predicting such things.

[Catsumi]

Keep amusing us too. However, I am NOT amused at all after receiving my quarterly report.

Just about 5 years of earnings have vanished and what’s left in the portfolio has diminished purchasing power.

Skinned alive without a kiss or my consent.

[Glacier]

How central bankers broke the economy

[rekabis]

There is a lot of FUD going on out there, and most people are absolutely forgetting a massive demographic shift that is impacting current employment rates:

The retirement of the boomers.

Boomers are that cohort between 1946 and 1964. Retirement age in Canada is 65. Take 2022 and subtract 65 from that, and what do you get? 1957.

As in, the boomer retirement wave has only begun to hit its peak. It is likely to continue on for _at least_ another decade, and open up massive employment opportunities as they vacate high-paying, highly-skilled positions with no-one else to fill the gap. Far fewer children were born in subsequent generations than to their own generation, so we are seeing a contraction of available employees at all middle and senior levels at the same time as businesses are trying to expand.

This is why so many places are complaining that “no-one wants to work” -- not because that’s actually true, but because there are fare more job opportunities than job seekers, and people can pass over employers who can only offer an abusive work environment with abusively low pay.

That’s the thing -- if you ever see a business which regularly runs into “staffing issues” and needs to close partly or completely, there is a very good reason why that is. Good employers who treat employees well and pay them competitively have all the labour they need. Those that don’t are the ones having problems attracting and retaining staff.

[Mazdatruck]

It is likely to continue on for _at least_ another decade, and open up massive employment opportunities as they vacate high-paying, highly-skilled positions with no-one else to fill the gap.

They don't replace the good jobs with good jobs.

They outsource and get the retirees assistant to just absorb the workload. Just have to make the numbers work for 2 quarters until they sell the company off and someone else can deal with the problem.

[nepal]

GIC's are ok, but locking money away for 12months or more right now seems to be a risk in its own. But hey, it beats a 35% drawdown in equities I suppose. At some point, there may be risk in having your wealth in a bank should we go down the road of banks becoming capital impaired again. I forget what they re-branded the "bail in" here in Canada, and while that would be a fat-tail event, nothing would surprise me after observing the past 2 years of 'leadership'.

The rivets are popping-out of the global economy, so lets make those weekends great again for major announcements and policy maneuvers.

domain, your economic crystal ball works well. Many investment advisOrs haven’t prepared their clients for what’s ahead on the investment road. In BC it’ll get interesting when the four big BC mega-projects are finished in the next few months, and nothing big in stream in Western Canada to replace those construction jobs. Hopefully those workers invested wisely, for rainy days ahead. Hopefully gov manages fiscal policy to provide shelf-ready projects when there is future desperation for jobs. As for monetary policy, the BOC has no choice but to follow the usFED.
.

[seewood]

As for monetary policy, the BOC has no choice but to follow the usFED.

That will keep the Canadian dollar from sinking lower I suppose. If our fed keep spending money they don't have, the BOC also has no choice to raise rates to help in keeping inflation down to a dull roar.

I'm thinking a recession is not too far off.

Been trying to find out what gold is going to do. From CBC Money Watch:

Why you may want to invest in gold before a recession
Many experts say that just before a recession is the best time to invest in gold. There are several reasons for this. For one, its value tends to hold steady or, often, even increase during these down periods. That's because investors flock to the safety of gold, which drives up its price — and your returns.

PS : Locked in for a year at 6%- TD CIBC was 5.9%

[Queen K]

All these millionaire, billionaires hoarding all their money are worried about a recession hitting North America.
Welp the USA just got a new house speaker so now the USA can commit 110 billion dollars to overseas interests, including Ukraine and Israel further ensuring US interests are protected. Black Rock can own more perhaps or buy up what is left of Gaza for a rebuild.

But look at the list included here calling it that the USA is headed for a recession. Umm it's already here guys. When the economy shift went from shopping retail to ordering almost everything on line, we knew commercial REITs were in trouble. Retail jobs? Fast Food? The average American, aka barely graduated out of high school, can barely get low level low paying jobs. Education cost barriers are real, God forbid that only the rich are getting their kids into higher education, or suggesting that is true. So recession? Yup. But it's been a hidden Depression for years now if you listen to some people.

"Running short of cash." Isn't that rich? When the average seller of any goods uses ApplyPay, the Square, or CC, or gets any surcharge going to the bloated multi-billion dollar banks, that bit of percentage gets removed from public use. Eventually the bank gets it all given enough non cash transactions. SHORT OF CASH is what happens you putzes. CEO of Black Rock talking about "financial bottom" as if he's not going to have more money and assets to shove into his bloated portfolio. Sickening.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets ... 0eb455ea59

Jeremy Grantham, Leon Cooperman, David Rosenberg, and others have also voiced concern about a recession, citing challenges ranging from steeper borrowing costs and ballooning public debt to the Israel-Hamas conflict and American consumers running short of cash.

[GordonH]

US is quickly coming up to being 34 trillion dollars in debt, I guess what’s few more 100’s of billions.

[seewood]

But look at the list included here calling it that the USA is headed for a recession.

US GDP figures for the third 1/4 and it was 4.9% popped some Fox's hosts heads.

4.9% is not recessionary, nor is the US unemployment rate of 3.8% when the long term average was 5.4%

When the Canadian dollar is in the tank like it is, Canadian exports are going gangbusters and Canada has had a trade surplus for some time now. The various levels of governments have been on a hiring blitz so the unemployment numbers look good.

Is a recession coming ? In my opinion , if interest rates go up a point or two from today's rate, you bet.
In the meantime, might be a soft landing if the economy's ( US and Canada) keep clipping along.

Without a doubt there will be some that will be affected when mortgage renewals happen and some businesses will have issues with current rates, but overall, the majority of Canadians will survive.

[Queen K]

All those executives and CEOs predict a recession in the coming year or so. I say it's already here when rents absorb discretionary spending and credit card debt has never been higher.